2018 United States House of Representatives election in South Dakota, At-large district
November 6, 2018 (2018-11-06)
 
Nominee Dusty Johnson Tim Bjorkman
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 202,446 120,816
Percentage 60.3% 36.0%
Johnson:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Bjorkman:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Tie:      40–50%
U.S. Representative before election

Kristi Noem
Republican

 Elected U.S. Representative

Dusty Johnson
Republican

The 2018 United States House of Representatives election in South Dakota was held on November 6, to elect the U.S. representative for South Dakota's at-large congressional district. The election coincided with other statewide, legislative, and local elections.

Incumbent Republican U.S. Representative Kristi Noem did not run for a fifth term and instead ran successfully for Governor of South Dakota.[1] This is the first open seat election since 2004 and the first time a male candidate was elected since 2002. This would be the last House election that a Democrat contested, Johnson would face two different Libertarians in 2020 and 2022.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Dusty
Johnson		 Shantel
Krebs		 Neal
Tapio		 Undecided
Mason-Dixon May 21–23, 2018 625 ± 4.5% 41% 23% 13% 23%

Primary results

Results by county:
  Johnson
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Krebs
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Tapio
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Dusty Johnson 47,032 46.8
Republican Shantel Krebs 29,442 29.3
Republican Neal Tapio 23,980 24.0
Total votes 100,454 100

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Tim Bjorkman, former circuit court judge[6]

Failed to file

  • Chris Martian, former IT professional[7]

Declined

Libertarian nomination

Candidates

Declared

  • George Hendrickson, former police officer[14][15]

Independents

Candidates

Declined

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[18] Solid R June 1, 2018
The Rothenberg Political Report[19] Solid R June 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[20] Safe R June 6, 2018

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Dusty
Johnson (R)		 Tim
Bjorkman (D)		 Other Undecided
Change Research (D) November 2–4, 2018 851 – 51% 41% 5%[21] –
Emerson College November 1–4, 2018 514 ± 4.5% 54% 38% – 5%
Mason-Dixon October 18–22, 2018 500 ± 4.5% 54% 31% 3%[22] 12%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Johnson) August 1–3 & 5, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 54% 33% – 10%
Public Policy Polling (D-Bjorkman) July 19–20, 2018 641 ± 3.9% 43% 33% – 14%

Results

South Dakota's at-large congressional district, 2018[23]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Dusty Johnson 202,446 60.35% -3.75%
Democratic Tim Bjorkman 120,816 36.01% +0.11%
Independent Ron Wieczorek 7,313 2.18% N/A
Libertarian George D. Hendrickson 4,896 1.46% N/A
Total votes 335,471 100.0% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also

References

  1. 1 2 Ellis, Jonathan (November 14, 2016). "Noem announces historic bid for governor". Argus Leader. Retrieved November 15, 2016.
  2. 1 2 Pathé, Simone (November 15, 2016). "Who Could Run for Kristi Noem's At-Large Seat?". Roll Call. Retrieved November 15, 2016.
  3. ↑ Ferguson, Dana (January 29, 2018). "Former Trump state campaign director Neal Tapio announces bid for U.S. House". Argus Leader.
  4. ↑ Powers, Pat (May 20, 2017). "Man files Tennessee based Statement of Candidacy to run as Republican in South Dakota Congressional race?". South Dakota War College. Retrieved May 25, 2017.
  5. ↑ Heidelberger, Cory (May 22, 2017). "SD Republican Among First Ten Bernie-Bloomer "Brand New Congress" Candidates to File". Dakota Free Press. Retrieved May 25, 2017.
  6. ↑ "Democratic Candidate Tim Bjorkman Kicks Off Congressional Campaign".
  7. ↑ Leischner, Mike (April 11, 2017). "Rapid City Democrat emerges as US House candidate". KELO. Retrieved April 14, 2017.
  8. 1 2 3 Hendershot, Evan (July 7, 2017). "Democratic town hall meeting sets the stage for possible campaign announcement". Mitchell Daily Republic. Retrieved August 6, 2017.
  9. 1 2 Lawrence, Tom (November 22, 2016). "The 2018 campaign is underway". Black Hills Pioneer. Retrieved November 24, 2016.
  10. ↑ Raposa, Megan (February 23, 2017). "Herseth Sandlin: 'I am done seeking political office'". Argus Leader. Retrieved April 1, 2017.
  11. 1 2 Anderson, Patrick (December 19, 2016). "Huether dumps Dems amid speculation of statewide run". Argus Leader. Retrieved April 1, 2017.
  12. ↑ Ferguson, Dana (April 12, 2017). "SD Dems' director exits for 'statewide' campaign". Argus Leader. Retrieved April 13, 2017.
  13. ↑ Ferguson, Dana (May 30, 2017). "Democrats, Sutton enter South Dakota governor race". Argus Leader. Retrieved May 31, 2017.
  14. ↑ Ferguson, Dana (July 15, 2017). "Medical cannabis advocate, former police officer enters U.S. House race". Argus Leader. Retrieved July 16, 2017.
  15. ↑ "2018 Candidates". January 8, 2018.
  16. ↑ Sneve, Joe (March 7, 2017). "Huether moves hint at 2018 run". Argus Leader. Retrieved April 1, 2017.
  17. ↑ Ferguson, Danielle; Sneve, Joe (June 22, 2017). "Mayor Mike Huether not seeking U.S. House seat". Argus Leader. Retrieved July 1, 2017.
  18. ↑ "House Maps". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved June 7, 2018.
  19. ↑ "South Dakota | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved June 7, 2018.
  20. ↑ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 House". www.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved June 7, 2018.
  21. ↑ Ron Wieczorek (I) with 3%, George Hendrickson (L) with 2%
  22. ↑ Ron Wieczorek (I) with 2%, George Hendrickson (L) with 1%
  23. ↑ Johnson, Cheryl L. (February 28, 2019). "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 6, 2018". Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives. Retrieved April 27, 2019.
Official campaign websites
This article is issued from Wikipedia. The text is licensed under Creative Commons - Attribution - Sharealike. Additional terms may apply for the media files.