2024 Maryland's 6th congressional district election
November 5, 2024
 
Party Democratic Republican
Incumbent U.S. Representative

David Trone
Democratic


The 2024 Maryland's 6th congressional district election will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect the United States Representative for Maryland's 6th congressional district, concurrently with elections for the other U.S. House districts in Maryland and the rest of the country, as well as the 2024 U.S. Senate race in Maryland, other elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The primary election will be held on May 14, 2024. The 6th district is based in western Maryland and the northwest District of Columbia exurbs and outer suburbs. It takes in all of Allegany, Frederick, Garrett, and Washington counties, as well as portions of Montgomery County. Cities in the district include Cumberland, Frederick, Gaithersburg, Germantown, and Hagerstown.[1]

The incumbent is Democrat David Trone, who was re-elected with 54.7% of the vote in 2022. Trone was first elected in 2018, when Democratic incumbent John Delaney retired to focus on his 2020 presidential campaign. Trone is not seeking re-election, instead choosing to run for the U.S. Senate. A wide field of candidates have filed for the race to replace Trone, with over 15 in all. Maryland Matters remarked that both Democrats and Republicans would need to find a candidate with a wide appeal, as the 6th district is largely split between suburban and rural areas.[2]

The 6th district is considered the most competitive congressional district in the state of Maryland, despite being a moderately blue largely suburban district with a more sparsely populated rural component. While Republicans typically run up large margins in the state's Western Panhandle (Washington, Allegany, and Garrett counties), the district has a slight Democratic lean due to the more heavily populated, strongly Democratic Montgomery County, and the former Republican stronghold of Frederick County, which has trended towards the Democrats in recent elections. Republicans last won the district in 2010, when long-serving Republican Roscoe Bartlett was elected to his final term; he lost re-election to Delaney in 2012 after the district became significantly more favorable to the Democratic Party during redistricting.[2] Democrat Joe Biden won the district with 53.9% of the vote in the 2020 presidential election.[3]

Democratic primary

George Gluck
Geoffrey Grammer
Lesley Lopez
Ashwani Jain
Tekesha Martinez
April McClain-Delaney
Joel Martin Rubin
Laurie-Anne Sayles
Joe Vogel

Candidates

Declared

Publicly expressed interest

Withdrawn

  • Mia Mason, military veteran and nominee for the 1st district in 2020[9]
  • Stephen McDow, economist and businessman[9]

Declined

Endorsements

Ashwani Jain
Organizations
Lesley Lopez
State cabinet officials
State legislators
Organizations
Joel Martin Rubin
Organizations
Joe Vogel
U.S. representatives
Local officals
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Geoffrey Grammer (D) $238,982[lower-alpha 1] $83,988 $154,995
Lesley Lopez (D) $104,349 $54,622 $49,727
Tekesha Martinez (D) $151,070 $38,032 $113,038
Joel Martin Rubin (D) $86,740 $36,415 $50,325
Laurie-Anne Sayles (D) $27,059 $13,652 $13,407
Joe Vogel (D) $252,813 $93,374 $159,439
Destiny Drake West (D) $8,500 $5,851 $2,924
Source: Federal Election Commission[29]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Geoffrey
Grammer		 Lesley
Lopez		 Tekesha
Martinez		 April McClain-
Delaney		 Joel Martin
Rubin		 Joe
Vogel		 Other Undecided
RMG Research[upper-alpha 1] November 14–17, 2023 300 (LV) ± 5.7% 3% 3% 6% 5% 1% 3% 5% 74%

Republican primary

Dan Cox
Brenda Thiam

Candidates

Declared

* Dan Cox, former state delegate from the 4th district (2019–2023) and nominee for Governor of Maryland in 2022[30]

Formed exploratory committee

Publicly expressed interest

Withdrawn

Declined

Debates and forums

2024 Maryland's 6th congressional district Republican primary debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Participants
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee W  Withdrawn
Heath
Barnes		 Chris
Hyser		 Todd
Puglisi		 Mariela
Roca		 Tom
Royals		 Brenda
Thiam
1[37] Sept 20, 2023 Upper Montgomery
Republican Women's Club		 David Bossie YouTube P P P P P P

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Heath Barnes (R)[lower-alpha 4] $13,037 $6,340 $6,697
Chris Hyser (R) $49,732[lower-alpha 5] $10,161 $39,571
Mariela Roca (R) $100,775 $85,889 $14,912
Tom Royals (R) $160,383 $57,846 $102,537
Neil Parrott (R) $34,638 $57,084 $0
Brenda Thiam (R) $24,221[lower-alpha 6] $13,491 $10,730
Source: Federal Election Commission[29]

Third-party candidates

Jason Johnson

Candidates

Declared

*Jason "Mr. J" Johnson (Independent), member of the Frederick County Board of Education (2020–present)[38]

Filed paperwork

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[40] Likely D September 27, 2023
Inside Elections[41] Likely D September 15, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[42] Likely D October 4, 2023
Elections Daily[43] Safe D October 5, 2023
CNalysis[44] Very Likely D November 16, 2023

Notes

  1. ↑ $219,709 of this total was self-funded by Grammer
  2. ↑ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ↑ Mayor
  4. ↑ Withdrawn candidate
  5. ↑ $33,186 of this total was self-funded by Hyser
  6. ↑ $13,450 of this total was self-funded by Thiam
Partisan clients
  1. ↑ Poll sponsored by U.S. Term Limits. Joe Vogel has signed the group's term-limit pledge.

References

  1. ↑ "Our District". Retrieved August 11, 2023.
  2. 1 2 Kurtz, Josh; Sears, Bryan (May 10, 2023). "Risks and opportunities for both parties as race to replace Trone ramps up". Maryland Matters. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
  3. ↑ "Daily Kos Elections' 2020 presidential results by congressional district, for new and old districts". Daily Kos. September 29, 2021. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
  4. 1 2 3 Marshall, Ryan (June 1, 2023). "Lopez, McDow join District 6 congressional race". Retrieved June 2, 2023.
  5. ↑ Jacoby, Ceoli (August 30, 2023). "Former gubernatorial candidate Jain files to run for Congress". Frederick News-Post. Retrieved August 30, 2023.
  6. 1 2 Ford, William J.; Kurtz, Josh; Sears, Bryan P. (October 3, 2023). "Political Notes: Updates in the races for U.S. Senate, 6th District". Maryland Matters. Retrieved October 3, 2023.
  7. ↑ Ford, William J.; Kurtz, Josh (June 1, 2023). "Political notes: Lopez enters congressional fray, Hoyer backs Alsobrooks, District 17 developments, a senior lobbyist departs, and more". Maryland Matters. Retrieved June 1, 2023.
  8. ↑ Ford, William J.; Kurtz, Josh (July 12, 2023). "Political notes: Hagerstown mayor to run for 6th District seat, O's advocacy in D.C." Maryland Matters. Retrieved July 12, 2023.
  9. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Bixby, Ginny; Peck, Louis (October 25, 2023). "April McClain Delaney ends months of speculation, declares for District 6 congressional seat". MoCo360. Retrieved October 25, 2023.
  10. 1 2 Kurtz, Josh (July 24, 2023). "District 6 congressional race is developing slowly". Maryland Matters. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  11. ↑ Kurtz, Josh (August 10, 2023). "Political notes: MoCo councilmember joins congressional race, a tribute to Cardin with oysters, and endorsement watch". Maryland Matters. Retrieved August 10, 2023.
  12. ↑ Marans, Daniel (May 8, 2023). "Joe Vogel Is Running To Be The Second Gen Z Member Of Congress". HuffPost. Retrieved May 8, 2023.
  13. ↑ Gaines, Danielle E.; Kurtz, Josh; Sears, Bryan P. (June 28, 2023). "Political notes: More candidates in Dist. 6, as the lobbying world turns, MML honorees, personnel news and more". Maryland Matters. Retrieved June 28, 2023.
  14. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Bixby, Ginny; Peck, Louis (July 25, 2023). "Political Notes: New faces join race for 6th Congressional District". MoCo360. Retrieved July 25, 2023.
  15. 1 2 3 4 5 Kurtz, Josh; Sears, Bryan P. (May 10, 2023). "Risks and opportunities for both parties as race to replace Trone ramps up". Maryland Matters. Retrieved May 10, 2023.
  16. 1 2 Rubashkin, Jacob (February 13, 2023). "Maryland Senate & House: Chesapeake Churn". Inside Elections. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
  17. ↑ Bixby, Ginny (June 13, 2023). "Lt. Gov. Aruna Miller indicates she won't run for 6th Congressional District seat". MoCo360. Retrieved June 13, 2023.
  18. ↑ Pathe, Simone. "Rep. David Trone announces campaign for Senate in Maryland". CNN. Retrieved May 4, 2023.
  19. 1 2 Marshall, Ryan (May 16, 2023). "Little interest in Frederick County so far for 6th District congressional seat". The Frederick News-Post. Retrieved May 17, 2023.
  20. ↑ "Vote Mama PAC | Candidates". Vote Mama PAC. Retrieved November 6, 2023.
  21. ↑ "Joel Rubin". JStreetPAC. Retrieved January 13, 2024.
  22. ↑ Janfaza, Rachel (October 24, 2023). "Meet the Gen Z Candidates Running for Congress in 2024". Teen Vogue. Retrieved October 24, 2023.
  23. 1 2 "CHC BOLD PAC Endorses New Slate of Latino Candidates". www.boldpac.com. September 29, 2023. Archived from the original on September 29, 2023. Retrieved September 29, 2023.
  24. 1 2 Kravis, Isabelle (June 29, 2023). "Maryland: Two gay congressmen endorse Joe Vogel for Congress". Washington Blade. Retrieved June 29, 2023.
  25. 1 2 "LGBTQ+ Victory Fund Endorses Joe Vogel for Congress; Would Be First LGBTQ+ Person Elected to Congress from Maryland". LGBTQ+ Victory Fund. July 27, 2023. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
  26. ↑ "Election 2024 Endorsements". MoCo360. Retrieved September 13, 2023.
  27. ↑ "Equality PAC Endorses Set of 3 LGBTQ Congressional Candidates". Equality PAC. June 21, 2023. Retrieved June 21, 2023.
  28. ↑ Kurtz, Josh; Gaines, Danielle E. (January 9, 2024). "Political notes: Dominguez on his decision to switch races, Hoyer to file for re-election, Dist. 6 news and new House leaders". Maryland Matters. Retrieved January 9, 2024.
  29. 1 2 "2024 Election United States House - Maryland 6th". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved September 18, 2023.
  30. ↑ Bixby, Ginny (October 30, 2023). "Dan Cox announces run for Maryland Sixth Congressional District". MoCo360. Retrieved October 30, 2023.
  31. ↑ Kurtz, Josh; Sears, Bryan P. (July 19, 2023). "Political notes: 6th district GOP field is growing, O'Malley portraits unveiled". Maryland Matters. Retrieved July 19, 2023.
  32. ↑ Bixby, Ginny (September 21, 2023). "Republican hopefuls for Maryland's Sixth Congressional District largely agree on national security, parental involvement in school curriculum". MoCo360. Retrieved September 24, 2023.
  33. ↑ Jacoby, Ceoli (January 2, 2024). "Woodsboro burgess suspends campaign for Congress". Frederick News-Post. Retrieved January 2, 2024.
  34. ↑ Jacoby, Ceoli (October 19, 2023). "Vogel leads Democrats, Royals leads Republicans in District 6 fundraising, FEC reports show". Frederick News-Post. Retrieved October 20, 2023. Republican Todd Puglisi of Gaithersburg, who had been campaigning for the House seat, told the News-Post on Thursday that he dropped out of the race.
  35. ↑ Kurtz, Josh (November 8, 2023). "Md. congressional district used to lots of political spending hasn't seen much so far". Maryland Matters. Retrieved November 8, 2023. On the GOP side, Del. Jason C. Buckel (R-Allegany), the House minority leader in Annapolis, who has considered the race in both 2022 and this year, told Maryland Matters on Tuesday that he will not be a candidate.
  36. ↑ Bienasz, Gabrielle (July 10, 2023). "Frederick County state's attorney becomes president of national group". Frederick News-Post. Retrieved July 11, 2023.
  37. ↑ Kurtz, Josh (September 21, 2023). "GOP candidates bash Biden in first forum for Trone's congressional seat". Maryland Matters. Retrieved September 21, 2023.
  38. ↑ Jacoby, Ceoli (November 6, 2023). "Frederick County school board member launches campaign for Md. 6th District". Frederick News-Post. Retrieved November 7, 2023.
  39. ↑ "2024 Candidate Listing". elections.maryland.gov. Retrieved December 6, 2023.
  40. ↑ "2024 CPR House Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
  41. ↑ "2024 House Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved March 10, 2023.
  42. ↑ "2024 House ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. June 8, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
  43. ↑ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. June 8, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
  44. ↑ "2024 House Forecast". November 20, 2023. Retrieved December 27, 2023.
Official campaign websites
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