The Actuarial Society of South Africa HIV/AIDS models, also known as ASSA AIDS models, are a series of mathematical models developed to assist the actuarial profession and the Actuarial Society of South Africa in assessing and addressing the impact of the HIV and AIDS epidemic in South Africa.[1][2][3] The models have been developed by the AIDS Committee[4] of the Society and the Center for Actuarial Research (CARe) at the University of Cape Town in Cape Town, South Africa.[5]

Models

In 1996 the first and earliest version of ASSA AIDS model ASSA500 was developed by the AIDS Committee of the society,[6][7]

A red ribbon use as logo of ASSA AIDS Committee

While the ASSA2008 model is the most recent version of ASSA AIDS and demographic model which was released in March 2011.[8] The models have assisted insurers and those insured to have fair and balanced insurance policies in a country ravaged by AIDS.[9][10]

A joint task team of the South African National Department of Health and the Treasury used the ASSA model to estimate the impact of extending the life of AIDS patients.[1]

ASSA is one of only two models used in South Africa;[1] both are capable of making projections on the progression of the epidemic through an interaction of many factors. Four population risk groups are included, along with assumptions about sexual behaviour, rates of infection, conception rates, the median duration to mortality of those with HIV/AIDS, and the rates of transmission between mother and child.[1] The impact of drug treatments at birth and while nursing, enhanced STD treatment, and risk avoidance is projected by a lower rate scenario[1] The model makes provisions for migration of the population, separate modeling of racial groups, and separate modeling of provincial populations.[1]

A study by the South African National Department of Health and the Treasury used the ASSA model to project a positive result for the increased implementation of antiretroviral drugs (ARV) in the country,[1] although their cost is a problem.[11]

References

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Nowak, Michael; Ricci, Luca Antonio, eds. (12 January 2006). Post-Apartheid South Africa: The First Ten Years. International Monetary Fund, 2006, p. 119. ISBN 9781451955231. Retrieved 25 June 2012.
  2. ↑ South Africa HIV AIDS Statistics and Actuarial Society of South Africa HIV/AIDS Models
  3. ↑ Actuarial Society of South Africa Archived January 4, 2009, at the Wayback Machine
  4. ↑ AIDS Committee Publications till date Archived July 1, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
  5. ↑ ASSA AIDS Models Archived March 13, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
  6. ↑ Harvard School of Public Health Report on ASSA HIV AIDS Models
  7. ↑ ASSA500 the first model of AIDS Committee Archived June 1, 2012, at the Wayback Machine.
  8. ↑ The ASSA2008 model the most recent model Archived April 10, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
  9. ↑ http://www.actuarialsociety.org.za/Portals/1/Documents/fa4bedae-e09d-4ed6-a3aa-47f7a0369ff7.pdf%5B%5D
  10. ↑ "Still a lot of life in Life". 31 March 2012.
  11. ↑ Public Hearings with National Treasury, Department of Health on under-expenditure of Hospital Revitalisation, Comprehensive HIV and AIDS, and Forensic Pathology Grants
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