2022 Schleswig-Holstein state election
8 May 2022
All 69 seats in the Landtag of Schleswig-Holstein
35 seats needed for a majority
Turnout1,396,747 (60.4% Decrease 3.8pp)
  First party Second party Third party
 
Daniel Günther (2017).jpg
MonikaHeinold.jpg
Thomas Losse Müller.JPG
Leader Daniel Günther Monika Heinold Thomas Losse-Müller
Party CDU Greens SPD
Last election 25 seats, 32.0% 10 seats, 12.9% 21 seats, 27.3%
Seats won 34 14 12
Seat change Increase 9 Increase 4 Decrease 9
Popular vote 601,964 254,158 221,496
Percentage 43.4% 18.3% 16.0%
Swing Increase 11.4pp Increase 5.4pp Decrease 11.3pp
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
2018-05-10 Bernd Klaus Buchholz-7525.jpg
1312-ri-36-Lars Harms SSW.jpg
2017-05-14 NRW Landtagswahl by Olaf Kosinsky-66.jpg
Leader Bernd Buchholz Lars Harms Jörg Nobis
Party FDP SSW AfD
Last election 9 seats, 11.5% 3 seats, 3.3% 5 seats, 5.9%
Seats won 5 4 0
Seat change Decrease 4 Increase 1 Decrease 5
Popular vote 88,593 79,301 61,141
Percentage 6.4% 5.7% 4.4%
Swing Decrease 5.1pp Increase 2.4pp Decrease 1.5pp
Results for the single-member constituencies
Government before election

First Günther cabinet
CDU–Green–FDP

 Government after election

Second Günther cabinet
CDU–Green

The 2022 Schleswig-Holstein state election was held on 8 May 2022 to elect the 20th Landtag of Schleswig-Holstein. The outgoing government was a coalition of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), The Greens, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP), led by Minister-President Daniel Günther.

The CDU won in a landslide, claiming 43% of the vote with a swing of over eleven percentage points and falling one seat short of an absolute majority in the Landtag. It is their best result since Uwe Barschel's 49 % showing in the 1983 state election. The opposition Social Democratic Party (SPD) suffered major losses and fell to third place with 16% of votes, its worst ever result in the state, while the Greens became the second-largest party with 18%. The FDP also declined to 6% and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) fell below the 5% electoral threshold, losing representation in a state parliament for the first time. The South Schleswig Voters' Association (SSW), which represents the Danish and Frisian minorities in Schleswig-Holstein, won 6%, their best result since the first post-war state election in 1947.[1]

The CDU's victory was attributed to the personal popularity of Minister-President Günther, as well as the federal government's response to the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, for which Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been criticised.[1] In the lead-up to the election, Günther was the most popular Minister-President in Germany with an approval rating of 76%,[2] and was preferred Minister-President even among opposition voters.[3]

After the election, the CDU formed a coalition with the Greens. Daniel Günther was re-elected as Minister-President on 29 June.[4]

Election date

The Landtag is elected for five years, with its term commencing when the new Landtag first meets. The election must be held in or before June 2022.[5]

Electoral system

The Landtag is elected via mixed-member proportional representation. 35 members are elected in single-member constituencies via first-past-the-post voting. 34 members are then allocated using compensatory proportional representation. Voters have two votes: the "first vote" for candidates in single-member constituencies, and the "second vote" for party lists, which are used to fill the proportional seats. The minimum size of the Landtag is 69 members, but if overhang seats are present, proportional leveling seats will be added to ensure proportionality. An electoral threshold of 5% of valid votes is applied to the Landtag; parties that fall below this threshold, and fail to win at least one constituency, are ineligible to receive seats. Parties representing the Danish minority of Southern Schleswig and the Frisians, such as the South Schleswig Voters' Association, are exempt from the threshold.[6]

Background

In the previous election held on 7 May 2017, the CDU remained the largest party with 32.0% of votes cast, an increase of 1.2 percentage points. The SPD lost three points and placed second with 27.3% of votes. The Greens won 12.9% (–0.3pp), the FDP won 11.5% (+3.3pp), and the SSW won 3.3% (–1.3pp). The AfD contested its first election in Schleswig-Holstein, winning 5.9%.

The SPD had led a coalition with the Greens and SSW since 2012, but this government lost its majority in the election. The CDU subsequently formed a coalition with the Greens and FDP, and Daniel Günther became Minister-President.

Parties

The table below lists parties represented in the 19th Landtag of Schleswig-Holstein.

Name Ideology Leader(s) Leading candidate 2017 result
Votes (%) Seats
CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands		 Christian democracy 32.0%
25 / 73
SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands		 Social democracy Serpil Midyatli Thomas Losse-Müller 27.3%
21 / 73
Grüne Alliance 90/The Greens
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen		 Green politics Ann-Kathrin Tranziska
Steffen Regis		 Monika Heinold 12.9%
10 / 73
FDP Free Democratic Party
Freie Demokratische Partei		 Classical liberalism Heiner Garg Bernd Buchholz 11.5%
9 / 73
AfD Alternative for Germany
Alternative für Deutschland		 Right-wing populism Vacant Jörg Nobis 5.9%
5 / 73
SSW South Schleswig Voter Federation
Südschleswigscher Wählerverband		 Danish and Frisian minority interests Flemming Meyer Lars Harms 3.3%
3 / 73

Opinion polling

Graphical summary

Local regression of polls conducted.

Party polling

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size		 CDU SPD Grüne FDP AfD Linke SSW FW Others Lead
2022 state election 8 May 2022 – 43.4 16.0 18.3 6.4 4.4 1.7 5.7 0.6 3.5 25.1
Wahlkreisprognose 4–6 May 2022 918 39 17.5 17.5 7 5.5 2 5.5 – 6 21.5
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 2–5 May 2022 1,704 38 18 18 8 6 – 6 – 6 20
INSA 25 Apr–2 May 2022 1,000 36 20 16 9 6 3 5 – 5 16
Wahlkreisprognose 25–29 Apr 2022 913 39 18.5 17.5 7 5 2 5 – 6 20.5
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 25–28 Apr 2022 1,011 38 19 17 7 6 3 5 – 5 19
Infratest dimap 25–27 Apr 2022 1,530 38 19 16 9 5 – 5 – 8 19
Wahlkreisprognose 16–23 Apr 2022 920 39.5 21 16 7 4.5 2 4 – 6 18.5
Infratest dimap 13–19 Apr 2022 1,172 38 20 16 9 6 – 4 – 7 18
Wahlkreisprognose 23 Mar–2 Apr 2022 950 37 22 17 6.5 4.5 2 4 – 7 15
Infratest dimap 24–29 Mar 2022 1,158 36 20 18 8 6 – 4 – 8 16
INSA 21–28 Mar 2022 1,008 28 27 16 11 6 3 4 2 3 1
Wahlkreisprognose 3–11 Mar 2022 1,020 35 19.5 19.5 9 5 2.5 5 – 4.5 15.5
Infratest dimap 3–8 Mar 2022 1,168 33 20 20 9 6 3 4 – 5 13
Wahlkreisprognose 10–19 Feb 2022 2,000 30 25 17 9 6 3 5 – 5 5
INSA 24–31 Jan 2022 1,003 25 28 15 12 7 4 3 3 3 3
Wahlkreisprognose 19–27 Jan 2022 1,390 31 25 17 8 6 2 5.5 – 5.5 6
Infratest dimap 13–18 Jan 2022 1,167 28 23 20 10 7 3 4 – 5 5
Wahlkreisprognose 1–13 Dec 2021 1,030 24 29 20 12.5 4 2 4.5 – 4 5
INSA 15–22 Nov 2021 1,001 21 28 18 14 7 4 3 2 3 7
Wahlkreisprognose 14–24 Oct 2021 945 23 29 22 14 3 2 4 – 3 6
2021 federal election 26 Sep 2021 – 22.0 28.0 18.3 12.5 6.8 3.6 3.2 1.0 4.6 6.0
Infratest dimap 21–26 May 2021 1,220 28 15 27 11 6 4 3 – 6 1
INSA 10–17 May 2021 1,000 25 21 27 11 6 3 3 2 2 2
Wahlkreisprognose 21–30 Mar 2021 – 28 19 29 11 3 3 3.5 – 3.5 1
INSA 16–23 Nov 2020 1,002 33 20 24 8 6 3 3 – 3 9
INSA 13–20 Jan 2020 1,000 28 20 26 9 7 3 3 – 4 2
2019 European election 26 May 2019 – 26.2 17.1 29.1 5.9 7.4 3.7 – 0.9 9.7 2.9
INSA 28 Jan–4 Feb 2019 1,002 30 20 22 9 7 5 3 1 3 8
Infratest dimap 12–18 Apr 2018 1,002 34 22 18 8 6 6 3 – 3 12
2017 federal election 24 Sep 2017 – 34.0 23.3 12.0 12.6 8.2 7.3 – 0.6 1.9 10.7
2017 state election 7 May 2017 – 32.0 27.3 12.9 11.5 5.9 3.8 3.3 0.6 1.7 4.7

Results

Party Constituency List Total
seats		 +/–
Votes  % Seats Votes  % Swing
Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) 577,506 41.9 32 601,964 43.4 Increase 11.4 34 Increase 9
Alliance 90/The Greens (GRÜNE) 260,122 18.9 3 254,158 18.3 Increase 5.4 14 Increase 4
Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) 284,373 20.6 0 221,496 16.0 Decrease 11.3 12 Decrease 9
Free Democratic Party (FDP) 84,520 6.1 0 88,593 6.4 Decrease 5.1 5 Decrease 4
South Schleswig Voters' Association (SSW) 48,551 3.5 0 79,301 5.7 Increase 2.4 4 Increase 1
Alternative for Germany (AfD) 62,413 4.5 0 61,141 4.4 Decrease 1.5 0 Decrease 5
The Left (DIE LINKE) 29,739 2.2 0 23,054 1.7 Decrease 2.1 0 ±0
Grassroots Democratic Party of Germany (dieBasis) 9,684 0.7 0 15,400 1.1 New 0 New
Die PARTEI 3,096 0.2 0 10,292 0.7 Increase 0.2 0 ±0
Human Environment Animal Protection (Tierschutzpartei) – – – 10,227 0.7 New 0 New
Free Voters (FW) 13,803 1.0 0 8,190 0.6 Steady 0.0 0 ±0
Pirate Party Germany (Piraten) – – – 4,753 0.3 Decrease 0.8 0 ±0
Volt Germany (Volt) 1,896 0.1 0 4,215 0.3 New 0 New
Future (Z.) 442 0.0 0 1,692 0.1 Decrease 0.2 0 ±0
The Humanists (Die Humanisten) 302 0.0 0 1,603 0.1 New 0 New
Party for Health Research (Gesundheitsforschung) – – – 1,319 0.1 New 0 New
Liberal Conservative Reformers (LKR) 368 0.0 0 – – Decrease 0.2 0 ±0
Family Party of Germany (FAMILIE) 227 0.0 0 – – Decrease 0.6 0 ±0
Alliance C – Christians for Germany (Bündnis C) 154 0.0 0 – – – 0 New
Independents 1,656 0.1 0 – – – 0 ±0
Valid 1,378,852 98.7 1,387,398 99.3
Invalid 17,895 1.3 9,349 0.7
Total 1,396,747 100.0 35 1,396,747 100.0 69 –4
Registered voters/turnout 2,314,417 60.4 2,314,417 60.4 Decrease 3.8
Source: State Returning Officer Archived 2023-05-14 at the Wayback Machine

Voter demographics and analysis

Sociology of the electorate
Demographic CDU Grüne SPD FDP SSW AfD Linke Others
Total vote 43% 18% 16% 6.5% 6% 4.5% 2% 4%
Sex
Men 42% 16% 16% 8% 6% 6% 2% 4%
Women 44% 20% 16% 5% 6% 3% 2% 4%
Age
16–24 years old 23% 26% 13% 12% 8% 4% 5% 9%
25–34 years old 30% 22% 15% 8% 7% 7% 3% 8%
35–44 years old 38% 20% 14% 7% 6% 6% 2% 7%
45–59 years old 45% 19% 14% 6% 6% 5% 1% 4%
60–69 years old 47% 18% 18% 5% 5% 3% 1% 3%
70 or older 55% 12% 20% 5% 4% 2% 1% 1%
Education
Low 50% 7% 22% 5% 6% 6% 1% 3%
High 35% 27% 14% 7% 5% 4% 2% 6%
Socio-occupational classification
Blue-collar worker 39% 12% 14% 6% 7% 15% 7%
White-collar worker 40% 21% 15% 7% 6% 4% 8%
Self-employed 47% 19% 9% 10% 6% 4% 5%
Retired 52% 14% 20% 5% 5% 2% 2%
Agglomeration
Rural commune 47% 16% 14% 7% 7% 4% 5%
Small town 46% 16% 17% 6% 4% 5% 6%
Medium-sized town 39% 20% 17% 6% 6% 5% 7%
Large town 33% 27% 19% 6% 5% 3% 7%
Source: Infratest dimap[7][8][9]

Government formation

The CDU fell just one seat short of a majority in the Landtag and could form a coalition with any of the other parties. After the election, Minister-President Günther stated his intention to seek a renewal of the incumbent Jamaica coalition with both the Greens and FDP.[10] On 19 May, he announced that exploratory talks had failed because neither of the smaller parties desired to continue a three-party coalition when only two parties were necessary for a majority.[11] Four days later, the CDU extended an invitation to the Greens for coalition talks, which was accepted.[12][13] As negotiations proceeded in early June, the two parties emphasised their mutual commitment to climate protection and social justice, and a rapid transition to renewable energy and climate neutrality. Agreement was also found in policy areas such as digitalisation and education, while they disagreed on security, agriculture, transport, and housing.[14][15]

On 22 June, the CDU and Greens announced that they had finalised a coalition agreement. In the new cabinet, the number of ministers was increased by one as the agriculture portfolio will be split from that of environment and energy. The health ministry was also transferred from the social affairs ministry to the justice ministry. Five ministers – economy, justice, education, interior, and agriculture – were allocated to the CDU and three to the Greens. Among them, Monika Heinold remained Deputy Minister-President and finance minister, while Tobias Goldschmidt became environment minister and Aminata Touré minister for social affairs.[16] The agreement was approved overwhelmingly by both parties' congresses on 27 June, with the Greens recording four dissenting votes and the CDU none.[17]

Daniel Günther was re-elected as Minister-President by the Landtag on 29 June, winning 47 votes out of 66 cast, including four abstentions.[4]

References

  1. 1 2 "Germany: CDU set to win Schleswig-Holstein state election". Deutsche Welle. 8 May 2022.
  2. ↑ "Landtagswahl am 8. Mai: CDU in Umfrage vor SPD und Grünen". YouTube.
  3. ↑ "NDR Umfrage in SH: CDU vor SPD und Grünen - Abstand wächst".
  4. 1 2 "Daniel Günther is the old and new Prime Minister of SH". Norddeutscher Rundfunk (in German). 29 June 2022.
  5. ↑ "The 19th Landtag". Landtag of Schleswig-Holstein. Archived from the original on 5 December 2020. Retrieved 12 May 2021.
  6. ↑ "Elections". Landtag of Schleswig-Holstein. Retrieved 12 May 2021.
  7. ↑ "Landtagswahl Schleswig-Holstein 2022: Wen wählten Jüngere und Ältere?" (in German). Tagesschau.de. 8 May 2022. Retrieved 9 May 2022.
  8. ↑ "Landtagswahl Schleswig-Holstein 2022: Wer wählte was?" (in German). tagesschau.de. 8 May 2022. Retrieved 9 May 2022.
  9. ↑ "Landtagswahl Schleswig-Holstein 2022: Wen wählten Angestellte und Arbeitende?" (in German). Tagesschau.de. 8 May 2022. Retrieved 9 May 2022.
  10. ↑ "Günther wants to continue Jamaica". Der Spiegel (in German). 11 May 2022.
  11. ↑ "Talks on renewal of the Jamaican government have collapsed". Die Zeit (in German). 19 May 2022.
  12. ↑ "CDU wants to hold coalition talks with the Greens". Tagesspiegel (in German). 23 May 2022.
  13. ↑ "CDU and Greens agree on timetable for government formation in SH". Norddeutscher Rundfunk (in German). 25 May 2022.
  14. ↑ "Government formation in SH: coalition agreement should be in two weeks". Norddeutscher Rundfunk (in German). 8 June 2022.
  15. ↑ "CDU und Grüne beraten weiter über gemeinsame Koalition". N-tv (in German). 15 June 2022.
  16. ↑ "Black-Green coalition is set in Schleswig-Holstein". Norddeutscher Rundfunk (in German). 22 June 2022.
  17. ↑ "CDU and Greens agree to coalition agreement". Der Spiegel (in German). 27 June 2022.
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