Kızılırmak Delta January 2021

Drought is common in Turkey, especially in the south and center of the country, with 2021 being the driest in 2 decades.[1] Droughts are forecast to occur more frequently due to climate change, and 2023 began with drought.[2] Most water loss is due to poor irrigation. In 2022 the World Bank said that “without reform, a 10% fall in water supply in Turkey could reduce GDP by 6%”.[3]: 11 

Climate

Weather patterns

Most of the climate of Turkey in the interior is a semi-arid climate and on the south and west coasts a Mediterranean climate which are characterized by summer drought. Turkey's climate is affected by the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), the Mediterranean Circulation Index,[4] and the Southern Oscillation Index.[5]

Climate change

Due to climate change, extreme droughts and water scarcity are predicted to increase,[6] for example in Ankara Province.[7]

Geography

Parts of the country are arid or becoming arid. Between 1931 and 2010 extreme drought occurred in 3% of the country, severe drought in 4% and moderate drought in 7%.[8] The lowest precipitation in Turkey is around Lake Tuz[9] at around 35 cm per year.[10]

Major droughts

A severe drought coincided with the collapse of the Hittte Empire around 1198–1196 BC.[11] And more recently in 1804, 1876, 1928,[12] and often since the 1970s.[13]

Recent severe droughts

2007–2008

Between December 2006 and December 2008 there was significantly less winter and autumn precipitation. Hydrological, agricultural and socioeconomic droughts developed due to the meteorological drought. Loss of agricultural products, insufficiency of above ground and underground water, insufficiency and cuts in drinking water in big cities such as Ankara and Istanbul were observed. The drought mostly affected the Aegean, Marmara, Mediterranean and Central Anatolia regions. Drinking water was supplied from the Kızılırmak River to Ankara and from Melen Stream to Istanbul.[13]

2013–2014

The 2012 Eastern and Central Anatolia drought combined with the summer drought of the Mediterranean Climate, was experienced as a moderate and severe drought in most of the country in 2013. The total amount of precipitation between 1 October 2013 and 17 January 2014 was about half of the same period in the previous year and 37% below the long-term average.[13]

2020–2021

Moisture in the root zone — the top meter of soil — on 11 January 2021. Dark red denotes less than 2% moisture.

Precipitation was below average from mid-2019, and particularly the second half of 2020, and the drought mainly impacted agriculture in Turkey,[14] because big city reservoirs received rain before they ran out.[15]

Desertification risk

More than 60% (51.5 mil. ha) of environmentally sensitive areas are fragile and critical.[16] Shrinking lakes may be due to reduced precipitation being part of climate change, and increased water use by agriculture.[17]

Agriculture

Grain in Konya Province is affected[18] Almost three-quarters of the water supply is used for irrigation[19] and most water loss is due to poor irrigation,[20] and more widespread use of drip irrigation has been suggested.[13]

Water resources

There are about 1500 cubic meters per person per year.[19] Based to the Falkenmark Index, Turkey is ‘water stressed’ since it has 1,000-1,500 m3 of water potential per person per year.[21] Precipitation can be measured by satellite.[22]

Other uses of water

Hydroelectricity in Turkey is reduced by climate change.[23] According to the Water Policy Association half of water intended for taps is lost to leaks.[24] According to TEMA 4 million tons a day are consumed for coal mining.[25]

Officially sanctioned methods to combat drought include better protecting river basins,[26] building underground dams,[27] rainwater harvesting, use of grey water[28] and praying for rain.[29]

References

  1. ↑ "2021 was the driest year in two decades in Turkey".
  2. ↑ "Istanbul may experience its warmest January: Experts". Hürriyet Daily News. Retrieved 21 January 2023.
  3. ↑ Climate and Development : An Agenda for Action - Emerging Insights from World Bank Group 2021-22 Country Climate and Development Reports (Report). World Bank Group. 3 November 2022.
  4. ↑ Topuz, Muhammet; Feidas, Haralambos; Karabulut, Murat (2020). "Trend analysis of precipitation data in Turkey and relations to atmospheric circulation: (1955–2013)". Italian Journal of Agrometeorology (2): 91–107. doi:10.13128/ijam-887. ISSN 2038-5625.
  5. ↑ Harisuseno, Donny (1 October 2020). "Meteorological Drought and its Relationship with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)". Civil Engineering Journal. 6 (10): 1864–1875. doi:10.28991/cej-2020-03091588. ISSN 2476-3055. S2CID 222333797.
  6. ↑ Gönençgil, Barbaros; Acar, Zahide (2021), Lois-González, Rubén Camilo (ed.), "Turkey: Clımate Variability, Extreme Temperature, and Precipitation", Geographies of Mediterranean Europe, Springer Geography, Cham: Springer International Publishing, pp. 167–180, doi:10.1007/978-3-030-49464-3_8, ISBN 978-3-030-49464-3, S2CID 230552459, retrieved 29 March 2021
  7. ↑ "Climate change impact assessment on mild and extreme drought events using copulas over Ankara, Turkey". ODTÜ – Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi. 10 December 2020. Retrieved 29 March 2021.
  8. ↑ Dabanlı, İsmail; Mishra, Ashok K.; Şen, Zekai (1 September 2017). "Long-term spatio-temporal drought variability in Turkey". Journal of Hydrology. 552: 779–792. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.07.038. ISSN 0022-1694.
  9. ↑ "Lake Tuz Special Environmental Protection Area (SEPA)". UNESCO World Heritage Centre. Retrieved 26 March 2021.
  10. ↑ Aydin, Fulya; Erlat, Ecmel; Türkeş, Murat (1 June 2020). "Impact of climate variability on the surface of Lake Tuz (Turkey), 1985–2016". Regional Environmental Change. 20 (2): 68. doi:10.1007/s10113-020-01656-z. ISSN 1436-378X. S2CID 219175790.
  11. ↑ Manning, Sturt W.; Kocik, Cindy; Lorentzen, Brita; Sparks, Jed P. (February 2023). "Severe multi-year drought coincident with Hittite collapse around 1198–1196 bc". Nature. 614 (7949): 719–724. doi:10.1038/s41586-022-05693-y. ISSN 1476-4687. PMC 9946833.
  12. ↑ "Droughts in Turkey". Climatechangepost.com. Retrieved 29 March 2021.
  13. 1 2 3 4 Kurnaz, Levent (April 2014). "Drought in Turkey" (PDF).
  14. ↑ "Drought in Turkey" (PDF). Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS). January 2021. Archived (PDF) from the original on 10 February 2021.
  15. ↑ "GDO Analytical Report: Drought in Turkey". United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. January 2021.
  16. ↑ Uzuner, Çağlar; Dengiz, Orhan (1 July 2020). "Desertification risk assessment in Turkey based on environmentally sensitive areas". Ecological Indicators. 114: 106295. doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106295. ISSN 1470-160X. S2CID 216267688.
  17. ↑ "Son 30 yılda Türkiye'nin büyük göllerinin yüzde 54'ü küçüldü". BBC News Türkçe (in Turkish). Retrieved 30 May 2023.
  18. ↑ "Better irrigation saves water, energy in Turkish grain hub Konya". Daily Sabah. 8 February 2021. Retrieved 29 March 2021.
  19. 1 2 "Fresh water resources in Turkey". Climatechangepost.com. Retrieved 30 March 2021.
  20. ↑ "Poor irrigation main cause of water loss, data shows – Turkey News". Hürriyet Daily News. Retrieved 29 March 2021.
  21. ↑ "Water Use in Turkey". Fanack Water. Retrieved 18 May 2023.
  22. ↑ Aksu, Hakan; Akgül, Mehmet Ali (1 October 2020). "Performance evaluation of CHIRPS satellite precipitation estimates over Turkey". Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 142 (1): 71–84. doi:10.1007/s00704-020-03301-5. ISSN 1434-4483. S2CID 220062259.
  23. ↑ Bulut, U.; Sakalli, A. (2021). "Impacts of climate change and distribution of precipitation on hydroelectric power generation in Turkey". IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering. 1032: 012043. doi:10.1088/1757-899x/1032/1/012043. S2CID 234299802. Retrieved 29 March 2021.
  24. ↑ "Is Turkey a water-hoarding bogeyman or yet another nation struggling with water scarcity?". The National. 27 May 2021. Retrieved 27 May 2021.
  25. ↑ Agency, Anadolu (3 November 2021). "Coal mining key contributor to water crisis: Turkish NGO". Daily Sabah. Retrieved 12 November 2021.
  26. ↑ "Strategy and Action Plans". www.tarimorman.gov.tr. Retrieved 30 March 2021.
  27. ↑ Ateş, Hazal (14 December 2020). "Turkey's action plan to fight drought focuses on saving water sources". Daily Sabah. Retrieved 29 March 2021.
  28. ↑ "Rain harvesting, gray water can solve Turkey's drought: Expert". Daily Sabah. 20 January 2021. Retrieved 29 March 2021.
  29. ↑ "Turkey drought: Istanbul could run out of water in 45 days". The Guardian. 13 January 2021. Retrieved 29 March 2021.

"Kuraklık Analizi" [Drought Analysis]. Turkish State Meteorological Service (in Turkish).

Further reading

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