2024 São Paulo municipal election
6 October 2024 (2024-10-06) (first round)
27 October 2024 (2024-10-27) (second round, if necessary)
Mayoral election
Opinion polls
Incumbent Mayor

Ricardo Nunes
MDB


Parliamentary election
PartyLeader Current seats
Municipal Chamber
PSDB João Jorge 8
PT Senival Moura 8
UNIÃO Milton Leite 7
PSOL Silvia Ferraro 6
MDB 5
Republicanos Sansão Pereira 4
PL Isac Félix 4
PODE Milton Ferreira 3
PSD Edir Sales 3
Avante Camilo Cristófaro 1
NOVO Cris Monteiro 1
PP Marcos Palumbo 1
PSB Eliseu Gabriel 1
PSC Rodolfo de Souza 1
PRD Paulo Frange 1
PV Roberto Tripoli 1
Solidarity Sidney Cruz 1

The 2024 São Paulo municipal election will take place in the city of São Paulo, Brazil on 6 October 2024. Voters will elect a mayor, vice mayor, and 55 city council members. The incumbent mayor, Ricardo Nunes of the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), intends to run for reelection.[1]

Candidates

Pre-candidates

Brazilian Democratic Movement

Liberal Party

Brazilian Socialist Party

Free Brazil Movement (part of Brazil Union)

New Party

  • Marina Helena - Former director of the Special Secretariat of Privatizations, founder of Brazil Without Privileges movement.[6]

Socialism and Liberty Party

Brazilian Social Democracy Party

  • Marco Vinholi - Business administrator, communicator and superintendent of Sebrae in São Paulo; PSDB party's state president (2019-2023).

Withdrawn candidates

Outgoing Municipal Chamber

The result of the last municipal election and the current situation in the Municipal Chamber is given below:

Affiliation Members +/–
Elected[13] Current[14]
PSDB 8 8 Steady
PT 8 8 Steady
UNIÃO didn't exist 7 Increase7
PSOL 6 6 Steady
MDB 3 5 Increase2
Republicanos 4 5 Increase1
PODE 3 3 Steady
PSD 3 3 Steady
PL 2 2 Steady
Avante 0 1 Increase1
PRD didn't exist 1 Increase1
Solidarity 0 1 Increase1
PP 1 1 Steady
PSC 1 1 Steady
PV 1 1 Steady
NOVO 2 1 Decrease1
PSB 2 1 Decrease1
PSL 1 extinct party[lower-alpha 1] Decrease1
PTB 1 extinct party[lower-alpha 2] Decrease1
Patriota 3 extinct party[lower-alpha 2] Decrease3
DEM 6 extinct party[lower-alpha 1] Decrease6
Total 55

Opinion polls

First Round

2023

Pollster/client(s) Date(s)
conducted		 Sample
size		 Nunes
MDB		 Boulos
PSOL		 Salles
PL		 Amaral
PSB		 Kataguiri
UNIÃO		 Others Abst.
Undec.		 Lead
AtlasIntel 25–30 December 1,600 18% 29.5% 17.6% 6.2% 5.3% 1.4%[lower-alpha 3] 22.1% 11.5%
23.1% 37.9% 22.5% 8% 6.8% 1.7%[lower-alpha 4] — 14.8%
ABC Dados 18 December 1,061 16% 29% 12% 8% 10% — 25% 13%
Futura Inteligência 11–13 December 1,015 21% 25.6% 9.4% 8.4% 4.4% 3.3%[lower-alpha 5] 27.8% 4.6%
21% 24.6% 13%[lower-alpha 6] 8.3% 4.3% 3.1%[lower-alpha 7] 27.6% 3.6%
Paraná Pesquisas 6–9 December 1,046 25.4% 31.1% 8.3% 8.9% 5.4% 3.7%[lower-alpha 8] 17.3% 5.7%
29.1% 32.4% — 9.2% 6.4% 3.9%[lower-alpha 9] 19.0% 3.3%
Badra Comunicação 2–4 October 2,500 25% 30% — 9% — — 36% 5%
21% 29% — 7% 5% 3%[lower-alpha 10] 35% 8%
Paraná Pesquisas 21–24 September 1,066 29% 35% — 7.5% 5.3% 2.8%[lower-alpha 11] 20.4% 6%
20 September 2023 The party Solidariedade announces support to Nunes' reelection.[17]
Datafolha 29–30 August 1,092 24% 32% — 11% 8% 2%[lower-alpha 12] 23% 8%
5 August 2023 Workers' Party (PT) announces support to Boulos' candidacy.[18]
Pollster/client(s) Date(s)
conducted		 Sample
size		 Nunes
MDB		 Boulos
PSOL		 E. Bolsonaro
PL		 Amaral
PSB		 Kataguiri
UNIÃO		 Others Abst.
Undec.		 Lead
Instituto Gerp 10–17 July 800 6% 26% 18% 5% 2% 4%[lower-alpha 13] 39% 8%
28 June 2023 José Luiz Datena (PDT) withdraws from the race.[12]
5 June 2023 Ricardo Salles (PL) withdraws from the race.[19]
Pollster/client(s) Date(s)
conducted		 Sample
size		 Nunes
MDB		 Boulos
PSOL		 Datena
PDT		 Salles
PL		 Amaral
PSB		 Others Abst.
Undec.		 Lead
Paraná Pesquisas 30 Apr–4 May 1,208 17.8% 31.5% — 10.9% 7.1% 5.4%[lower-alpha 14] 27.3% 13.7%
13.6%[lower-alpha 15] 39.2%[lower-alpha 16] — 20.4%[lower-alpha 17] 7.7%[lower-alpha 18] 5%[lower-alpha 19] — 18.8%
Paraná Pesquisas 23–26 Feb 1,012 7.9% 26.3% 24.3% 4.8% 3.9% 13.4%[lower-alpha 20] 19.4% 2.0%
8.6% 32% — — 5.1% 33.6%[lower-alpha 21] 20.7% 12.1%
11.1% 32.9% — 7.5% 5.2% 17.4%[lower-alpha 22] 25.9% 21.8%
15% 36.7% — 10.1% — 8.4%[lower-alpha 23] 29.8% 11.7%

Second Round

Guilherme Boulos and Ricardo Nunes

Pollster/client(s) Date(s)
conducted		 Sample
size		 Nunes
MDB		 Boulos
PSOL		 Abst.
Undec.		 Lead
AtlasIntel 25–30 December 2023 1,600 37.2% 33.8% 29% 3.4%
Paraná Pesquisas 6–9 December 2023 1,046 41.3% 39.8% 19% 1.5%

Guilherme Boulos and Ricardo Salles

Pollster/client(s) Date(s)
conducted		 Sample
size		 Boulos
PSOL		 Salles
PL		 Abst.
Undec.		 Lead
AtlasIntel 25–30 December 2023 1,600 37% 31.5% 31.5% 5.5%

Guilherme Boulos and Kim Kataguiri

Pollster/client(s) Date(s)
conducted		 Sample
size		 Boulos
PSOL		 Kataguiri
UNIÃO		 Abst.
Undec.		 Lead
AtlasIntel 25–30 December 2023 1,600 34.2% 24.4% 41.4% 9.8%

Ricardo Nunes and Tabata Amaral

Pollster/client(s) Date(s)
conducted		 Sample
size		 Nunes
MDB		 Amaral
PSB		 Abst.
Undec.		 Lead
AtlasIntel 25–30 December 2023 1,600 36.5% 26.3% 37.1% 10.2%

Tabata Amaral and Ricardo Salles

Pollster/client(s) Date(s)
conducted		 Sample
size		 Amaral
PSB		 Salles
PL		 Abst.
Undec.		 Lead
AtlasIntel 25–30 December 2023 1,600 31.4% 27.7% 40.9% 3.7%

Tabata Amaral and Kim Kataguiri

Pollster/client(s) Date(s)
conducted		 Sample
size		 Amaral
PSB		 Kataguiri
UNIÃO		 Abst.
Undec.		 Lead
AtlasIntel 25–30 December 2023 1,600 27.6% 21.5% 50.9% 6.1%

Ricardo Nunes and Ricardo Salles

Pollster/client(s) Date(s)
conducted		 Sample
size		 Nunes
MDB		 Salles
PL		 Abst.
Undec.		 Lead
AtlasIntel 25–30 December 2023 1,600 29.6% 22.8% 47.6% 6.8%

Notes

  1. 1 2 Democrats (DEM) and the Social Liberal Party (PSL) merged into the Brazil Union in February 2022.[16]
  2. 1 2 Brazilian Labour Party (PTB) and Patriota merged in the Democratic Renewal Party (PRD) in November 2023.[15]
  3. ↑ Marco Vinholi (PSDB) with 0.8% and Marina Helena (NOVO) with 0.6%
  4. ↑ Marco Vinholi (PSDB) with 1% and Marina Helena (NOVO) with 0.7%
  5. ↑ Marina Helena (NOVO)
  6. ↑ Marcos Pontes
  7. ↑ Vinicius Poit (NOVO)
  8. ↑ Marina Helena (NOVO) with 3.1% and Marco Vinholi (PSDB) with 0.6%
  9. ↑ Marina Helena (NOVO)
  10. ↑ Vinicius Poit (NOVO)
  11. ↑ Vinicius Poit (NOVO)
  12. ↑ Vinicius Poit (NOVO)
  13. ↑ Rodrigo Garcia (PSDB) with 3% and Fernando Holiday (PL) with 1%.
  14. ↑ Vinicius Poit (NOVO)
  15. ↑ If endorsed by Planning Minister Simone Tebet (MDB)
  16. ↑ If endorsed by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT)
  17. ↑ If endorsed by former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL)
  18. ↑ If endorsed by Vice President Geraldo Alckmin (PSB)
  19. ↑ Vinicius Poit (NOVO) with 5%, if endorsed by Minas Gerais Governor Romeu Zema (NOVO)
  20. ↑ Rodrigo Garcia (PSDB) with 8.5%, Kim Kataguiri (UNIÃO) with 3.3% and Vinicius Poit (NOVO) with 1.6%
  21. ↑ Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL) with 19.1%, Rodrigo Garcia (PSDB) with 8.9%, Kim Kataguiri (UNIÃO) with 3.5% and Vinicius Poit (NOVO) with 2.1%
  22. ↑ Rodrigo Garcia (PSDB) with 10.3%, Kim Kataguiri (UNIÃO) with 4.5% and Vinicius Poit (NOVO) with 2.6%
  23. ↑ Kim Kataguiri (UNIÃO) with 5.3% and Vinicius Poit (NOVO) with 3.1%

References

  1. 1 2 Ribeiro, Bruno (3 April 2023). "De olho na reeleição, Nunes "refina" loteamento para agradar caciques". Metrópoles (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 12 April 2023.
  2. ↑ "Quem são os pré-candidatos à prefeitura de São Paulo na eleição de 2024?". Estadão (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-07-15.
  3. ↑ Gomes, Bianca (15 March 2023). "Candidatura de Tabata à prefeitura de SP vira obstáculo à federação do PSB com PDT e Solidariedade". O Globo (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 12 April 2023.
  4. ↑ Venceslau, Pedro (12 April 2023). "Tabata Amaral: 'Falta uma esquerda com visão econômica de centro'". Estadão (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 12 April 2023.
  5. ↑ Carneiro, Mariana; Côrtes, Gustavo (10 April 2023). "Apesar de divergências em São Paulo, PDT e PSB mantém costura por federação para 2024". Estadão (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 12 April 2023.
  6. ↑ Fernandes, Danielly (16 November 2023). "Quem são os possíveis candidatos a prefeito de São Paulo nas eleições municipais de 2024". JOTA (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 10 December 2023.
  7. ↑ "Boulos pinta como 'favorito' à prefeitura de SP em 2024, diz pesquisa". Veja (in Brazilian Portuguese). 28 February 2023. Retrieved 12 April 2023.
  8. ↑ "O que Boulos pensa sobre disputar a prefeitura de São Paulo em 2024". Carta Capital (in Brazilian Portuguese). 10 March 2023. Retrieved 12 April 2023.
  9. ↑ Ghirotto, Edoardo (3 March 2023). "Salles manda recado a prefeito de SP e diz que será candidato em 2024". Metrópoles (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 12 April 2023.
  10. ↑ "Ricardo Salles desiste de concorrer à prefeitura de SP: Tomei uma rasteira". UOL Notícias (in Brazilian Portuguese). 5 June 2023. Retrieved 5 June 2023.
  11. ↑ "Datena fecha com PDT de Ciro para concorrer à Prefeitura de São Paulo em 2024". Isto É Dinheiro (in Brazilian Portuguese). 14 March 2023. Retrieved 12 April 2023.
  12. 1 2 CASTRO, DANIEL (2023-06-28). "Para não pagar mico, Datena manda cancelar festa de candidatura a prefeito". Notícias da TV (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 2023-07-30.
  13. ↑ "São Paulo/SP - Eleição 2020 definida para prefeito e vereadores". UOL (in Brazilian Portuguese). 15 November 2020. Retrieved 12 April 2023.
  14. ↑ "Vereadores". Câmara Municipal de São Paulo (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 6 June 2023.
  15. ↑ Pontes, Felipe (9 November 2023). "TSE aprova criação do PRD, resultado de fusão entre PTB e Patriota". Agência Brasil (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 16 November 2023.
  16. ↑ Vivas, Fernanda (8 February 2022). "TSE aprova registro e estatuto do União Brasil, partido resultante da fusão entre DEM e PSL". G1 (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 5 June 2023.
  17. ↑ "Datafolha: Boulos lidera com 32% das intenções de voto para Prefeitura de SP; Nunes aparece em segundo, com 24%". G1 (in Brazilian Portuguese). 31 August 2023. Retrieved 25 September 2023.
  18. ↑ "PT oficializa apoio a Boulos para eleição à prefeitura de SP". Carta Capital (in Brazilian Portuguese). 5 August 2023. Retrieved 5 August 2023.
  19. ↑ "Ricardo Salles desiste de concorrer à prefeitura de SP: Tomei uma rasteira". UOL Notícias (in Brazilian Portuguese). 5 June 2023. Retrieved 18 July 2023.
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