In the lead-up to the 2022 Victorian state election, a number of polling companies conducted regular opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls collected data on parties' primary vote, and contained an estimation of the two-party-preferred vote. They also asked questions about the electorates' views on major party leaders.
Graphical summary
| Primary vote (2022) |
|---|
| Two-party-preferred |
| Preferred Premier |
|---|
| Andrews approval rating |
|---|
| Opposition Leaders approval rating |
|---|
Voting intention
| Date | Firm | Primary vote | TPP vote | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALP | LIB | NAT | GRN | OTH | ALP | L/NP | ||||
| 21 – 24 November 2022 | Newspoll[1] | 38% | 35%* | 12% | 15% | 54.5% | 45.5% | |||
| 22 – 23 November 2022 | Roy Morgan[2] | 38% | 32.5%* | 12.5% | 17%[lower-alpha 1] | 55% | 45% | |||
| 16 – 21 November 2022 | Resolve Strategic[3][lower-alpha 2] | 36.2% | 35.8%* | 10.1% | 17.9% | 52.7% | 47.3% | |||
| 9 – 10 November 2022 | Roy Morgan[4] | 40% | 25.5% | 3.5% | 11.5% | 19.5%[lower-alpha 3] | 57% | 43% | ||
| 3 – 6 November 2022 | Freshwater Strategy[5] | 37% | 34%* | 14% | 15% | 56% | 44% | |||
| 31 October – 6 November 2022 | RedBridge[6] | 38% | 38%* | 14% | 11% | 53.5% | 46.5% | |||
| 28 October – 6 November 2022 | Lonergan Research [7] | 42% | 29%* | 19% | 11% | — | — | |||
| 31 October – 3 November 2022 | Newspoll[8] | 37% | 37%* | 13% | 13% | 54% | 46% | |||
| 23 October 2022 | Resolve Strategic[9][lower-alpha 4] | 38% | 31%* | 12% | 18% | — | — | |||
| 18 October 2022 | Roy Morgan[10] | 42% | 26% | 2% | 14.5% | 15.5%[lower-alpha 5] | 60.5% | 39.5% | ||
| 18 September 2022 | Resolve Strategic[11][lower-alpha 4] | 42% | 28%* | 12% | 18% | — | — | |||
| 11 – 13 September 2022 | Roy Morgan[12] | 36.5% | 29.5%* | 14% | 20.5%[lower-alpha 6] | 58% | 42% | |||
| 31 August – 7 September 2022 | Essential[13] | 35.3% | 32.2%* | 10.2% | — | 56%[14] | 44%[14] | |||
| 22 – 25 August 2022 | Newspoll[15] | 41% | 36%* | 13% | 10% | 56% | 44% | |||
| 11 – 13 August 2022 | Roy Morgan[16] | 40.5% | 27.5%* | 14% | 18%[lower-alpha 7] | 60.5% | 39.5% | |||
| 30 June – 2 July 2022 | Roy Morgan[17] | 43.5% | 29.5% | 2.5% | 12% | 15%[lower-alpha 8] | 59.5% | 40.5% | ||
| 3 April 2022 | Resolve Strategic[18][lower-alpha 4] | 37% | 33%* | 10% | 19% | — | — | |||
| 15 January 2022 | Resolve Strategic[19][lower-alpha 4] | 41% | 31%* | 11% | 17% | — | — | |||
| 24 November 2021 | Roy Morgan[20] | 45% | 27% | 2% | 10.5% | 15.5%[lower-alpha 9] | 59.5% | 40.5% | ||
| 11 – 17 November 2021 | Newspoll[21] | 44% | 36%* | 11% | 9% | 58% | 42% | |||
| 12 November 2021 | Roy Morgan[22] | 43% | 28% | 3% | 11% | 15%[lower-alpha 10] | 58% | 42% | ||
| 24 October 2021 | Resolve Strategic[23][lower-alpha 4] | 38% | 34%* | 10% | 18% | — | — | |||
| 7 September 2021 Matthew Guy becomes Liberal leader and leader of the opposition | ||||||||||
| 22 August 2021 | Resolve Strategic[24][lower-alpha 4] | 40% | 35%* | 10% | 15% | — | — | |||
| 12 – 15 June 2021 | RedBridge[25][26] | 37% | 38% | 3% | 12% | 10% | 52.4% | 47.6% | ||
| 13 June 2021 | Resolve Strategic[27][lower-alpha 4] | 37% | 36%* | 9% | 17% | — | — | |||
| 9 – 10 November 2020 | Roy Morgan[28] | 45% | 30.5% | 4% | 11% | 9.5% | 58.5% | 41.5% | ||
| 29 October – 4 November 2020 | YouGov[29] | 44% | 40%* | 11% | 5% | 55% | 45% | |||
| 12 – 13 October 2020 | Roy Morgan[30] | 40% | 36% | 4% | 9% | 6% | 51.5% | 48.5% | ||
| 28 – 29 September 2020 | Roy Morgan[31] | 39% | 37% | 2.5% | 10% | 6% | 51.5% | 48.5% | ||
| 15 – 17 September 2020 | Roy Morgan[32] | 37% | 35% | 3.5% | 12% | 8.5% | 51.5% | 48.5% | ||
| 6 December 2018 Michael O'Brien becomes Liberal leader and leader of the opposition | ||||||||||
| 24 November 2018 election | 42.9% | 30.4% | 4.8% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 57.3% | 42.7% | |||
| 23 November 2018 | Newspoll[33] | 41% | 40%* | 11% | 8% | 53.5% | 46.5% | |||
| * Indicates a combined Liberal/National primary vote. | ||||||||||
| Newspoll polling is published in The Australian.[34] | ||||||||||
Preferred Premier and satisfaction
| Date | Firm | Better Premier | Andrews | Guy | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrews | Guy | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | |||
| 21 – 24 November 2022 | Newspoll[1] | 51% | 35% | 46% | 48% | 31% | 56% | |
| 16 – 21 November 2022 | Resolve Strategic[3] | 48% | 34% | N/A | ||||
| 9 – 10 November 2022 | Roy Morgan[16] | 65.5% | 34.5% | 58.5% | 41.5% | N/A | ||
| 3 – 6 November 2022 | Freshwater Strategy[5] | 40% | 28% | 39% | 48% | 32% | 48% | |
| 31 October – 3 November 2022 | Newspoll[8] | 52% | 33% | 51% | 44% | 32% | 52% | |
| 28 October 2022 | Resolve Strategic[9] | 49% | 29% | N/A | ||||
| 18 September 2022 | Resolve Strategic[11] | 46% | 28% | N/A | ||||
| 22 – 25 August 2022 | Newspoll[15] | 51% | 34% | 54% | 41% | 32% | 49% | |
| 11 – 13 August 2022 | Roy Morgan[16] | 66% | 34% | 62.5% | 37.5% | N/A | ||
| 30 June – 2 July 2022 | Roy Morgan[17] | 64.5% | 35.5% | 63.5% | 36.5% | N/A | ||
| 3 April 2022 | Resolve Strategic[18] | 48% | 31% | N/A | ||||
| 15 January 2022 | Resolve Strategic[19] | 47% | 30% | N/A | ||||
| 24 November 2021 | Roy Morgan[20] | N/A | 63.5% | 36.5% | N/A | |||
| 17 November 2021 | Newspoll[21] | 54% | 33% | 56% | 42% | 34% | 42% | |
| 11 November 2021 | Roy Morgan[22] | N/A | 60.5% | 39.5% | N/A | |||
| 24 October 2021 | Resolve Strategic[23] | 45% | 32% | N/A | ||||
| 20 – 24 October 2021 | Essential[35] | not asked | 52% | 40% | not asked | |||
| 15 – 18 September 2021 | Newspoll[36] | not asked | 64% | 35% | not asked | |||
| 7 September 2021 Guy replaces O'Brien | Andrews | O'Brien | Andrews | O'Brien | ||||
| 22 August 2021 | Resolve Strategic[24] | 50% | 24% | N/A | ||||
| 12 – 15 June 2021 | RedBridge[25][26] | 42.4% | 23.1% | 49.7% | 46.5% | 36.1% | 44% | |
| 13 June 2021 | Resolve Strategic[27] | 49% | 23% | 42% | 32% | 14% | 22% | |
| 11 – 16 November 2020 | Essential[37] | not asked | 65% | 28% | not asked | |||
| 9 – 10 November 2020 | Roy Morgan[28] | not asked | 71% | 29% | not asked | |||
| 29 October – 4 November 2020 | YouGov[29] | not asked | 65% | 32% | 26% | 53% | ||
| 28 October – 2 November 2020 | Essential[38] | not asked | 61% | 33% | not asked | |||
| 19 – 21 October 2020 | Ipsos[39] | 53% | 18% | 52% | 33% | 15% | 39% | |
| 14 – 19 October 2020 | Essential[40] | not asked | 54% | 40% | not asked | |||
| 12 – 13 October 2020 | Roy Morgan[30] | not asked | 59% | 41% | not asked | |||
| 29 – 30 September 2020 | Roy Morgan[31] | not asked | 61% | 39% | not asked | |||
| 16 – 19 September 2020 | Newspoll[41] | not asked | 62% | 35% | not asked | |||
| 8 – 9 September 2020 | Roy Morgan[42] | not asked | 70% | 30% | not asked | |||
| 15 – 18 July 2020 | Newspoll[43] | not asked | 57% | 37% | not asked | |||
| 24 – 28 June 2020 | Newspoll[44] | not asked | 67% | 27% | not asked | |||
| 21 – 26 April 2020 | Newspoll[45] | not asked | 75% | 17% | not asked | |||
| 6 December 2018 O'Brien replaces Guy | Andrews | Guy | Andrews | Guy | ||||
| 24 November 2018 election | – | – | – | – | – | – | ||
| 24 – 28 October 2018 | Newspoll[46] | 45% | 29% | 45% | 40% | 31% | 46% | |
| 22 – 24 October 2018 | YouGov | not asked | 44% | 35% | 24% | 42% | ||
| 7 October 2018 | ReachTEL[47] | 51.3% | 48.7% | not asked | ||||
| 11 – 13 September 2018 | YouGov[48] | not asked | 40% | 42% | 25% | 44% | ||
| * Remainder were "uncommitted" or "other/neither". † Participants were forced to choose. | ||||||||
| Newspoll polling is published in The Australian.[34] | ||||||||
Notes
- ↑ UAP 0.5%, Justice 1%, "teal independents" 4.5%, Other parties 11.0%
- ↑ TPP calculated from respondent nominated preferences and results to one decimal place provided pre-election by Resolve Strategic
- ↑ UAP 0.5%, Justice 1%, "teal independents" 4.5%, Other parties 13.5%
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
- ↑ One Nation 2%, UAP 1%, Liberal Democrats 1%, AJP 1%, SFF 0.5%, Justice 0.5%, Legalise Cannabis Australia 0.5%, "teal independents" 1%, other Independent 7%, Other parties 1%
- ↑ One Nation 2%, Liberal Democrats 1.5%, AJP 1%, Justice 0.5%, SFF 0.5%, UAP 0.5%, Legalise Cannabis Australia 0.5%, Independent 6.5%, Other 7.5%
- ↑ UAP 2%, Justice 1.5%, "teal independents" 5%, Other 9.5%
- ↑ UAP 2%, Justice 1%, "teal independents" 3%, Other 9%
- ↑ UAP 4%, Justice 2%, Other 9.5%
- ↑ UAP 3%, Justice 2%, Other 10%
References
- 1 2 Baxendale, Rachel (25 November 2022). "Victorian election: Despite a swing, Newspoll puts Daniel Andrews on track to win". The Australian. Archived from the original on 25 November 2022. Retrieved 25 November 2022.
- ↑ "ALP Government of Daniel Andrews set to win with a reduced majority as support for L-NP grows – but will the trend continue? - Roy Morgan Research". www.roymorgan.com.
- 1 2 Smethurst, Annika (22 November 2022). "Labor, Coalition neck-and-neck, as gap narrows between Andrews and Guy". The Age.
- ↑ "ALP lead over Coalition in Victoria narrows since October and is back to 2018 Election result as minor parties surge: ALP 57% cf. L-NP 43% - Roy Morgan Research". www.roymorgan.com.
- 1 2 Durkin, Patrick; McCubbing, Gus (November 7, 2022). "'Divisive but still popular': Andrews' lead slips, Liberals stall". Australian Financial Review. Retrieved November 7, 2022.
- ↑ Deery, Shannon; Clarke, Mitch. "Labor tipped to edge election win but in danger of minority government, polling shows". Herald Sun. Retrieved 14 November 2022.
- ↑ Lonergan Research (November 2022). "2780 VNPA State Polling '22" (PDF). Victorian National Parks Association.
- 1 2 Baxendale, Rachel (4 November 2022). "Newspoll: Daniel Andrews faces battle to hold on to majority power in Victoria". The Australian. Archived from the original on 4 November 2022. Retrieved 4 November 2022.
- 1 2 Smethurst, Annika (28 October 2022). "Voters turn on major parties, but Labor retains election-winning lead". The Age.
- ↑ "ALP increases its large election-winning lead over the Liberal-National Coalition in Victoria in September: ALP 60% cf. L-NP 40% - Roy Morgan Research". www.roymorgan.com. Retrieved 2022-10-18.
- 1 2 Ilanbey, Sumeyya (21 September 2022). "Labor heading for 'Danslide 2' as voters turn away from Guy's Liberals". The Age.
- ↑ "ALP hold a large election-winning lead over the Liberal-National Coalition in Victoria in August: ALP 58% cf. L-NP 42% - Roy Morgan Research".
- ↑ "Guardian Essential poll: Daniel Andrews in strong position for Labor victory in Victorian election". TheGuardian.com. 10 September 2022.
- 1 2 "Victorian state polls: Morgan and Essential Research – the Poll Bludger".
- 1 2 "The Daniel Andrews era to live on in Victoria, Newspoll finds". The Australian. 26 August 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
- 1 2 3 "The ALP in Victoria increases its large election-winning lead from a month ago: ALP 60.5% cf. L-NP 39.5%". Roy Morgan. 13 August 2022. Retrieved 13 August 2022.
- 1 2 "The ALP in Victoria holds a large election-winning lead only months before the State Election: ALP 59.5% cf. L-NP 40.5%". Roy Morgan. 3 July 2022. Archived from the original on 3 July 2022. Retrieved 3 July 2022.
- 1 2 Gordon, Josh (6 April 2022). "Labor loses ground but Andrews still preferred premier, poll shows". The Age. Archived from the original on 7 April 2022. Retrieved 7 April 2022.
- 1 2 Smethurst, Annika (19 January 2022). "Labor surges further ahead in state poll despite Omicron wave". The Age. Archived from the original on 19 January 2022. Retrieved 20 January 2022.
- 1 2 "Over three-quarters of Victorians (76%) agree that an employed worker in Victoria is not allowed to enter their employer's workplace unless fully vaccinated". Roy Morgan. Archived from the original on 25 November 2021. Retrieved 2021-11-25.
- 1 2 Baxendale, Rachel (20 November 2021). "Yes we Dan: Andrews on track for third term". The Australian. Retrieved 20 November 2021.
- 1 2 "Victoria's major parties both lose support to minor parties while Premier Daniel Andrews' job approval is over 10% points lower than a year ago". Roy Morgan. Archived from the original on 13 November 2021. Retrieved 2021-11-13.
- 1 2 Smethurst, Annika (27 October 2021). "Labor claws back support as Victorians stick by incumbents". The Age. Archived from the original on 28 October 2021. Retrieved 28 October 2021.
- 1 2 Smethurst, Annika (25 August 2021). "Labor claws back support as Victorians stick by incumbents". The Age. Archived from the original on 25 August 2021. Retrieved 26 August 2021.
- 1 2 Deery, Shannon. "Poll reveals Labor's support is falling in traditional heartland". Herald Sun. Retrieved 21 June 2021.
- 1 2 Deery, Shannon (21 June 2021). "Cracks Appear in Red Wall". Herald Sun. pp. 6–7.
- 1 2 Smethurst, Annika (16 June 2021). "Voters shun Labor over COVID but Andrews still preferred premier". The Age. Archived from the original on 17 June 2021. Retrieved 17 June 2021.
- 1 2 "Victorian ALP (58.5%) streaks ahead of L-NP (41.5%). Premier Daniel Andrews approval jumps 12% to 71%". Roy Morgan. Archived from the original on 12 November 2020. Retrieved 12 November 2020.
- 1 2 "Majority of Victorians think it's fair to blame Daniel Andrews for the failed hotel quarantine: poll". Herald Sun. Retrieved 8 November 2020.
- 1 2 "Victorian ALP still ahead of the L-NP at 51.5% Vs. 48.5%; Premier Andrews' approval down 2% to 59%". Roy Morgan. Archived from the original on 16 October 2020. Retrieved 2020-10-16.
- 1 2 "Victorians now against Stage 4 Covid Restrictions". Roy Morgan. Archived from the original on 2 October 2020. Retrieved 2020-10-01.
- ↑ "Victorian ALP Government support now 51.5% would win a close election with L-NP on 48.5%". Roy Morgan. Archived from the original on 20 September 2020. Retrieved 2020-09-20.
- ↑ Ferguson, John (24 November 2018). "Victorian election: Labor on track for poll victory, Newspoll finds". The Australian. Retrieved 24 November 2018.
- 1 2 "Opinion Polls". Archived from the original on 27 February 2015. Retrieved 16 July 2020.
- ↑ "Performance of State Premiers". Essential Vision. Essential Research. 25 October 2021. Archived from the original on 27 October 2021. Retrieved 27 October 2021.
- ↑ "Newspoll: Gap closes on lifting coronavirus restrictions". The Australian. 20 September 2020. Retrieved 22 September 2021.
- ↑ "Performance of State Premiers". Essential Vision. Essential Research. 17 November 2020. Archived from the original on 17 November 2020. Retrieved 17 November 2020.
- ↑ "Performance of State Premiers". Essential Vision. Essential Research. 3 November 2020. Archived from the original on 3 November 2020. Retrieved 3 November 2020.
- ↑ Topsfield, Jewel (October 26, 2020). "Andrews support strong, but Liberal leader floundering: poll". The Age. Archived from the original on 26 October 2020. Retrieved October 26, 2020.
- ↑ "Performance of State Premiers". Essential Vision. 19 October 2020. Archived from the original on 22 October 2020. Retrieved 2020-10-20.
- ↑ "Two-thirds of Victorian voters back Daniel Andrews despite controversial management of COVID-19 crisis". The Australian. News Corp Australia. 21 September 2020. Archived from the original on 14 May 2022. Retrieved 26 March 2021.
- ↑ "70% of Victorians approve of the way Premier Andrews is handling his job, but 76% say the Victorian Government should compensate small business". Roy Morgan. Archived from the original on 11 September 2020. Retrieved 2020-09-12.
- ↑ "Andrews caught in voters' crossfire". The Australian. News Corp Australia. 21 July 2020. Retrieved 22 July 2020.
- ↑ "Newspoll: Premiers sky high as Daniel Andrews' halo slips". The Australian. News Corp Australia. 29 June 2020. Retrieved 23 February 2021.
- ↑ Benson, Simon (28 April 2020). "Premiers riding a wave of popularity". The Australian. News Corp Australia. Retrieved 16 July 2020.
- ↑ Ferguson, John. "Newspoll: federal leadership turmoil hits Victorian Liberals' campaign". The Australian. Retrieved 16 July 2020.
- ↑ "ReachTEL Poll: Andrews edges clear of Guy as State Election draws near". The Age. 7 October 2018. Archived from the original on 16 July 2020. Retrieved 16 July 2020.
- ↑ "Two-thirds think Melbourne's population is growing too fast". MacroBusiness. 17 September 2018. Archived from the original on 16 July 2020. Retrieved 16 July 2020.
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