In the run up to the 2024 Pakistani general election, various organisations have been carrying out opinion polling to gauge voting intention throughout Pakistan and the approval rating of the civilian Pakistani government, first led by Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf until 10 April 2022 and then by Shehbaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League (N), with the latter government being supported by the Pakistan Democratic Movement and the Pakistan People's Party. The results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous general election, held on 25 July 2018, to the present day.

Surveys near election showed that even if the PTI contests the elections with its own symbol Bat, the contest is likely to be very tough. As contrary to the general perception in the social and traditional media PMLN has significantly regained its lost ground even in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Since Nawaz Sharif's return home, the popularity gap between Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf and PMLN is rapidly decreasing and the situation in this regard has reached where it was on the eve of the 2018 elections. This situation is despite the fact that one month is left and no campaign has started for the general elections till now.

In a survey conducted 8 months prior to elction by Gallup Pakistan in June 2023, it was reported that the PTI's popularity was 15 percent higher than the Non-League's a week before Nawaz Sharif's visit to Lahore.According to the latest survey conducted between December 15 and January 7 2024, this gap has now narrowed to four percent. In latest survey, opinions were obtained from five thousand people from all over the country. Those who said they would vote for PTI gave this opinion because they wanted to vote for Bat symbol of PTI. The latest survey indicte shrinking gap in Punjab province being the largest province specially in its three out of four regions of province, South, Central and West Punjab and now the difference in popularity is almost negligible as it is just one to two percent. Since the pollsters also factored in a margin of error of two to three percent, the difference is negligible.However, in North Punjab, PTI's popularity is 10% higher than that of the PMLN. This region includes most of the districts of Rawalpindi region. This region is also called the Marshall Belt because the majority of army recruits are from this region. Pollsters generally believe that the military, both serving and retired, remains largely politically loyal to their institution, as evidenced by a survey conducted a few months ago.In the survey, the people of this region are being considered counter-balanced and that is the reason why PTI is leading here. It is also a fact that PTI is a popular party in all ranks.

Talking about the pulse of Punjab, this is proved in another survey. Institute of Public Opinion Research (IPOR) Executive Director Tariq Junaid says that the seats won by the Non-League in 2018 are largely intact. His organization is currently conducting surveys in various constituencies along with the PMLN to determine the best candidates for the elections.Tariq Junaid said that in Lahore and Gujranwala division, Non-League will probably retain the seats won in 2018.

Bilal Gilani, executive director of Gallup Pakistan, also agrees that the PTI is facing some difficulties in the current situation and this situation may have an impact on the voters. He said that PTI's current level of popularity might not win it in the elections, especially when the elections are a month away. He said that in 2018 both the parties got almost equal number of votes. The situation was changed by adding electables from South Punjab. [1]

National Assembly Voting intention

The results in the tables below (excluding the column on undecided voters and non-voters) exclude survey participants who said they wouldn't vote or they didn't know who they would vote for and add up to 100%. In polls that include undecided voters or non-voters, percentages are adjusted upwards in order to make the total equal 100%. Margins of error are also adjusted upwards at the same rate to account for the increase.

Nationwide

Last date
of polling		 Polling firm Link PTI PML(N) PPP MMA[lower-alpha 1] TLP Other Ind. Lead Margin
of error		 Sample
size		 Undecideds &
Non-voters[lower-alpha 2]
13 January 2024 The PTI was not allotted the electoral symbol and therefore, is barred from contesting the 2024 elections.[2]
2 December 2023 Gohar Ali Khan, Imran Khan's lawyer and nominee, is elected, unopposed, as "caretaker chairman" of PTI.[3][4]
21 October 2023 Nawaz Sharif returns, under protective judicial bail, from 4 years of self-imposed exile in London.[5]
10 August 2023 The National Assembly is dissolved by President Arif Alvi on advice of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.[6]
5 August 2023 Imran Khan is again arrested, found guilty of "corrupt practices" by an Islamabad trial court, and disqualified from holding public office.[7]
30 June 2023 Gallup Pakistan PDF 42% 20% 12% 4% 4% 5% 22% ±2.5% 3,500 13%
9–12 May 2023 Imran Khan is arrested from the Islamabad High Court, triggering nationwide protests, and then released.[8][9]
3 November 2022 Imran Khan is injured in an assassination attempt in Wazirabad during the 2022 Azadi March II.[10]
3 June 2022 IPOR (IRI) PDF 39% 33% 12% 7% 4% 5% 6% ±2 - 3% 2,003 25%
11 April 2022 Shehbaz Sharif, Nawaz's brother, is elected Prime Minister[11]
10 April 2022 Imran Khan is removed from office in a no-confidence motion[12]
21 March 2022 IPOR (IRI) PDF 35% 33% 19% 6% 4% 3% 2% ±2 - 3% 3,509 16%
31 January 2022 Gallup Pakistan PDF 34% 33% 15% 6% 3% 9% 1% ±3 - 5% 5,688 33%
9 January 2022 IPOR (IRI) PDF 31% 33% 17% 3% 3% 11% 1% 2% ±2 - 3% 3,769 11%
11 November 2020 IPOR (IRI) PDF 36% 38% 13% 4% 3% 6% 2% ±3.22% 2,003 32%
13 August 2020 IPOR (IRI) PDF 33% 38% 15% 3% 3% 8% 5% ±2.95% 2,024 26%
30 June 2020 IPOR (IRI) PDF 24% 27% 11% 3% 2% 33% 3% ±2.38% 1,702 N/A[lower-alpha 3]
19 November 2019 Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, while under restrictive judicial bail, flew to London on medical grounds[13]
24 June 2019 Gallup Pakistan PDF 31% 28% 15% 5% 21% 3% ±3 - 5% ~1,400 N/A
22 November 2018 IPOR (IRI) PDF 43% 27% 15% 1% 1% 11% 1% 16% ±2.05% 3,991 22%
17 August 2018 Imran Khan is elected Prime Minister of Pakistan[14][15]
25 July 2018 2018 Elections ECP 31.8% 24.3% 13.0% 4.8% 4.2% 10.3% 11.5% 7.5% N/A 53,123,733 N/A

Punjab

Polling firm Last date
of polling		 Link PTI PML(N) PPP TLP Other Ind. Lead Sample
size		 Undecideds &
Non-voters[lower-alpha 2]
Gallup Pakistan 10 January 2024 PDF 34% 32% 11% 2.6% N/A 23%
Gallup Pakistan 30 June 2023 PDF 49% 33% 5% 7% 6% 16% N/A N/A[lower-alpha 3]
IPOR (IRI) 21 March 2022 PDF 34% 42% 6% 2% 16% 8% ~1,900 N/A[lower-alpha 3]
Gallup Pakistan 31 January 2022 PDF 35% 43% 7% 3% 9% 3% 8% ~3,100 31%
IPOR (IRI) 9 January 2022 PDF 31% 46% 5% 3% 15% 15% 2,035 N/A[lower-alpha 3]
IPOR (IRI) 11 November 2020 PDF 26% 39% 5% 2% 27% 1% 13% 1,089
2018 Elections 25 July 2018 ECP 33.6% 31.7% 5.4% 5.7% 4.8% 18.8% 1.9% 33,218,101 N/A

Sindh

Polling firm Last date
of polling		 Link PTI PPP MQM(P) MMA Other Ind. Lead Sample
size		 Undecideds &
Non-voters[lower-alpha 2]
Gallup Pakistan 10 January 2024 PDF 19% 42% 4% 16% 23% N/A 16%
PA 11 August 2023 The Provincial Assembly is dissolved by Governor Kamran Tessori on the advice of Chief Minister Murad Ali Shah.[16]
Gallup Pakistan 30 June 2023 PDF 43.4% 42.2% 2.4% 1.2% 10.8% 1.2% N/A 17%
Sindh By-elections 16 October 2022 50.0% 25.6% 12.5% 0.15 11.8% 24.4% 146,470 1,493
NA-245 By-election 21 August 2022 [17] 48.85% 21.87% 23.51 5.77 26.98% 60,760 0.70%
NA 11-12 April 2022Imran Khan is removed from office in a no-confidence motion
IPOR (IRI) 21 March 2022 PDF 17% 44% 5% 34% 27% ~810 N/A[lower-alpha 3]
Gallup Pakistan 31 January 2022 PDF 30% 34% 3% 3% 28% 2% 4% ~1,300 39%
IPOR (IRI) 9 January 2022 PDF 13% 44% 7% 36% 31% 867 N/A[lower-alpha 3]
IPOR (IRI) 11 November 2020 PDF 13% 22% 1% 3% 61% 9% 467
2018 Elections 25 July 2018 ECP 14.5% 38.4% 7.7% 6.1% 25.9% 7.4% 23.6% 10,025,437 N/A

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

Polling firm Last date
of polling		 Link PTI PPP MMA ANP PML(N) Other Ind. Lead Sample
size		 Undecideds &
Non-voters[lower-alpha 2]
Gallup Pakistan 10 January 2024 PDF 45% 7% 18% 7% 9% 6% 27% N/A 8%
Gallup Pakistan 30 June 2023 PDF 81.2% 2.4% 1.2% 1.2% 14.1% 0.0% 67.1% N/A 15%
PA 18 January 2023 The Provincial Assembly is dissolved and a provincial snap election is called.
KPK By-elections 16 October 2022 53.3% 41.9% 4.8% 11.4% 445,604 6,994
PK-7 By-election 26 June 2022 [18] 52% 44% 2% 8% 33,573 2%
NA-33 By Election 17 April 2022 48.8% 42.8% 8.4% 6% 43,148 537
NA 11-12 April 2022Imran Khan is removed from office in a no-confidence motion
IPOR (IRI) 21 March 2022 PDF 38% 8% 23% 8% 13% 10% 15% ~600 N/A[lower-alpha 3]
Gallup Pakistan 31 January 2022 PDF 44% 8% 13% 6% 21% 7% 1% 23% ~970 28%
IPOR (IRI) 9 January 2022 PDF 44% 7% 17% 11% 11% 10% 27% 641 N/A[lower-alpha 3]
IPOR (IRI) 11 November 2020 PDF 34% 4% 8% 3% 12% 26% 21% 331
2018 Elections 25 July 2018 ECP 39.3% 7.5% 18.9% 9.3% 10.7% 3.5% 10.8% 20.4% 6,611,287 N/A

Balochistan

Polling firm Last date
of polling		 Link PTI PPP PML(N) MMA BAP BNP NP Other Ind. Lead Sample
size		 Undecideds &
Non-voters[lower-alpha 2]
PA 12 August 2023 The Provincial Assembly is dissolved by Governor Abdul Wali Kakar on the advice of Chief Minister Abdul Quddus Bizenjo.[19]
Gallup Pakistan 30 June 2023 PDF 36.0% 18.0% 11.0% 7.0% 28.0% 18% 3,500 N/A[lower-alpha 3]
2018 Elections 25 July 2018 ECP 6.05% 3.09% 1.54% 15.28 24.44% 9.04% 4.91% 23.33% 16.95% 9.16% 1,899,565 82,178

Islamabad Capital Territory

Polling firm Last date
of polling		 Link PTI PML(N) PPP TLP MMA Other Ind. Lead Sample
size		 Undecideds &
Non-voters[lower-alpha 2]
2018 Elections 25 July 2018 ECP 48.24% 24.88% 12.58% 4.66% 3.72% 1.28% 4.64% 23.36% 445,827

Government approval rating

The results in this table show polls that surveyed whether people approved or disapproved of either the overall (not on a single issue) performance of the federal government in Islamabad or the Prime Minister's overall performance since 18 August 2018.

The same rounding restrictions that were given in the previous section do not apply here, so occasionally, results will add up to 101% or 99% due to rounding errors, and neutral respondents (when data is available for them) are counted in this table, unlike the last table.

Polling firm Last date
of polling		 Link Approve Neutral Disapprove DK/NA Strongly
approve		 Approve Neutral Disapprove Strongly
disapprove		 DK/NA Net Margin of error Sample
size
Gallup Pakistan 21 February 2023 32% N/A 65% 3% 11% 21% N/A 27% 38% 3% -33% ±3 - 5% 1,760
NA 11 April 2022 Shehbaz Sharif is elected Prime Minister
10 April 2022 Imran Khan is removed from office in a no-confidence motion
Gallup Pakistan 4 April 2022 PDF 46% N/A 54% N/A N/A -8% ±3 - 5% ~800
Gallup Pakistan 31 January 2022 PDF 36% 14% 48% 3% 15% 21% 14% 18% 30% 3% -12% ±3 - 5% 5,688
Gallup Pakistan 4 September 2021 PDF 48% N/A 45% 7% N/A +3% ±3 - 5% ~1,200
Gallup Pakistan 19 August 2020 PDF 38% 30% 31% 2% 22% 16% 30% 13% 18% 2% +7% ±3 - 5% 1,662
IPOR (IRI) 13 August 2020 PDF 38% N/A 54% 7% 16% 22% N/A 17% 37% 7% -16% ±2.18% 2,024
Gallup Pakistan 15 February 2020 PDF 32% N/A 66% 1% 8% 24% N/A 19% 47% 1% -34% ±3 - 5% 1,208
Gallup Pakistan 30 September 2019 PDF 45% N/A 53% 2% 15% 32% N/A 16% 37% 2% -8% ±3 - 5% 1,237
Gallup Pakistan 24 June 2019 PDF 45% N/A 53% 2% 21% 24% N/A 32% 21% 2% -8% ±3 - 5% ~1,400
Gallup Pakistan 29 December 2018 PDF 51% N/A 46% 3% 13% 38% N/A 26% 20% 3% +5% ±2 - 3% ~1,141
IPOR (IRI) 1 December 2018 PDF 47% N/A 27% 26% 17% 30% N/A 18% 9% 26% +20% ±2.17% 2,041
Pulse Consultant 28 November 2018 HTML 51% N/A 30% 19% N/A +21% ±2.07% 2,019
IPOR (IRI) 22 November 2018 PDF 56% N/A 40% 5% 16% 40% N/A 28% 12% 5% +16% ±2.05% 3,991

Notes

  1. ↑ Certain polls only include data for the JUI(F) instead of the MMA, and in those cases data for the JUI(F) is used because the JUI(F) is the largest constituent party of the MMA and makes up most of its base.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 This is a column that lists the percentage of undecided voters and non-voters in certain polls that publish this data. As some polls do not publish any data whatsoever on undecided voters and non-voters, the columns with survey participants that had a preference when polled are all that is needed to reach 100%. In surveys that do include data on non-voters and undecided voters, a scaling factor is applied to the margin of error and the rest of the data (for example, if the number of undecideds and non-voters equals 20%, each party would have their vote share scaled up by a factor of 100/80 (the formula is 100/(100-UndecidedPercentage)). This is done to keep consistency between the different polls and the different types data they provide.
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 This poll or crosstabulation did not include any data about undecided voters or non-voters and cut them out completely from the published results.

References

  1. ↑ "Archived copy". Archived from the original on 2024-01-12. Retrieved 2024-01-12.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  2. ↑ Bhatti, Haseeb (2024-01-13). "PTI bat-tered, loses iconic electoral symbol as SC restores ECP order". DAWN.COM. Archived from the original on 2024-01-13. Retrieved 2024-01-13.
  3. ↑ Guramani, Arif Hayat | Nadir (2023-12-02). "Gohar Ali Khan elected unopposed as new PTI chairman in intra-party polls". DAWN.COM. Archived from the original on 2023-12-14. Retrieved 2023-12-14.
  4. ↑ Junaidi, Ikram (2023-11-30). "PTI unveils Imran's pick for 'caretaker chairman'". DAWN.COM. Archived from the original on 2023-12-11. Retrieved 2023-12-14.
  5. ↑ Khan, Hasaan Ali (2023-10-18). "What are the tactics Nawaz Sharif can use to avoid jail?". DAWN.COM. Archived from the original on 2023-10-30. Retrieved 2023-10-30.
  6. ↑ Dawn.com (2023-08-08). "Explainer: What does dissolution of National Assembly mean and what happens next?". DAWN.COM. Archived from the original on 2023-10-30. Retrieved 2023-10-30.
  7. ↑ Gabol, Umer Burney | Dawn com | Imran (2023-08-05). "Imran arrested after Islamabad court finds him guilty of 'corrupt practices' in Toshakhana case". DAWN.COM. Archived from the original on 2023-10-23. Retrieved 2023-10-30.
  8. ↑ Burney, Dawn com | Umer (2023-05-09). "Imran Khan arrested from IHC; court deems ex-PM's arrest legal". DAWN.COM. Archived from the original on 2023-05-09. Retrieved 2023-10-30.
  9. ↑ "Imran Khan: Deadly violence in Pakistan as ex-PM charged with corruption". BBC News. 2023-05-10. Archived from the original on 2023-05-10. Retrieved 2023-10-30.
  10. ↑ Malik, Mansoor (2022-11-04). "Attempt on Imran Khan's life shocks nation". DAWN.COM. Archived from the original on 2023-10-30. Retrieved 2023-10-30.
  11. ↑ "Pakistan: Shehbaz Sharif chosen as PM after week-long uncertainty". BBC News. 2022-04-11. Archived from the original on 2022-04-11. Retrieved 2023-10-30.
  12. ↑ Chaudhry, Dawn com | Fahad (2022-04-09). "Imran Khan loses no-trust vote, prime ministerial term comes to unceremonious end". DAWN.COM. Archived from the original on 2022-04-13. Retrieved 2023-10-30.
  13. ↑ Taimoor, Adnan Sheikh | Muhammad (2019-11-19). "Nawaz Sharif travels to London from Lahore in air ambulance". DAWN.COM. Archived from the original on 2023-10-30. Retrieved 2023-10-30.
  14. ↑ Dawn.com (2018-08-18). "Imran Khan ─ from flamboyant cricketer to prime minister". DAWN.COM. Archived from the original on 2018-12-25. Retrieved 2023-10-30.
  15. ↑ Chaudhry, Dawn com | Fahad (2018-07-26). "'Naya Pakistan' imminent: PTI leads in slow count of 11th general elections vote". DAWN.COM. Archived from the original on 2023-10-30. Retrieved 2023-10-30.
  16. ↑ "Sindh Assembly bows out as Governor Tissori signs dissolution summary". Geo.tv. 2023-08-11. Archived from the original on 2023-08-11. Retrieved 2023-08-11.
  17. ↑ "PTI wins NA-245 seat by huge margin". The Express Tribune. 2022-08-21. Archived from the original on 2022-08-22. Retrieved 2022-08-23.
  18. ↑ "PK-7 By Election" (PDF). FAFEN. Archived (PDF) from the original on 2023-05-23. Retrieved 2023-05-25.
  19. ↑ Zehri, Abdullah (2023-08-12). "Balochistan Assembly dissolved as governor approves CM Bizenjo's summary". DAWN.COM. Archived from the original on 2023-08-12. Retrieved 2023-08-12.
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