2010 RF12
Discovery[1][2]
Discovered byMount Lemmon Srvy.
Discovery siteMount Lemmon Obs.
Discovery date5 September 2010
Designations
2010 RF12
NEO · Apollo[1][3]
Orbital characteristics[3]
Epoch 2023-Feb-25 (JD 2460000.5)
Uncertainty parameter 0 (MPC)[1] 2 (JPL)[3]
Observation arc11.98 years
Aphelion1.261 AU
Perihelion0.86145 AU
1.0611 AU
Eccentricity0.18819
1.093 yr (399 d)
84.6°
0° 54m 9s / day
Inclination0.88248°
163.71°
2022-Nov-23[3]
267.39°
Earth MOID0.00054 AU (81 thousand km; 0.21 LD)
Physical characteristics
Mean diameter
7 m[4]
6–12 meters (CNEOS)
28.4[1][3]

    2010 RF12 is a very small asteroid, classified as near-Earth object of the Apollo group, that passed between Earth and the Moon on 8 September 2010, at 21:12 UTC, approaching Earth within 79,000 kilometres (49,000 mi) above Antarctica.[5] The asteroid was discovered by the Mount Lemmon Survey near Tucson, Arizona on 5 September 2010 along with 2010 RX30.[1][6] Based on a short 7-day observation arc from that apparation, it was listed for 12 years on the Sentry Risk Table as the asteroid with the greatest known probability (5%) of impacting Earth.[7][note 1] 2010 RF12 was rediscovered in August 2022,[8][1] and now has a 12 year observation arc and a much better known orbit. As of the December 2022 solution which accounts for nongravitational forces,[3] there is a 1-in-10 chance of an Earth impact on 5 September 2095.[4]

    Nominal Earth Approach on 6 September 2095 with a 12-year observation arc[3]
    Date Impact
    probability    		 JPL Horizons
    nominal geocentric
    distance (AU)    		 uncertainty
    region
    (3-sigma)
    2095-09-06 00:06 ± 00:201:100.00035 AU (52 thousand km)[3]±180 thousand km[9]

    Description

    NASA's Near Earth Program estimates its size to be 7 meters (23 feet) in diameter with a mass of around 500 tonnes.[4] 2010 RF12 will make many more close approaches to Earth.[3] Around 6 September 2095 it will pass 52000±180000 km from Earth.[3][9] When an asteroid roughly 7-meters in diameter impacts Earth, very little danger of harm arises from the impact; rather an impressive fireball is expected (estimated in the risk table as nearly 9 KT of energy release[4]) as the rock air bursts in the upper atmosphere and pebble sized fragments would likely fall to the ground at terminal velocity.[10] The power of the airburst would be somewhere between the 2–4 m Sutter's Mill meteorite and the 17 m Chelyabinsk meteor (which was 440 KT equivalent energy).[11] The approach of 2096 is poorly known because it is dependent on the Earth approach/perturbations in September 2095.

    Virtual impactors with a 12-year observation arc[4]
    Date Impact
    probability
    (1 in)    		 JPL Horizons
    nominal geocentric
    distance (AU)    		 NEODyS
    nominal geocentric
    distance (AU)    		 MPC
    nominal geocentric
    distance (AU)    		 Find_Orb
    nominal geocentric
    distance (AU)    		 uncertainty
    region
    (3-sigma)
    2095-09-05 23:46100.00035 AU (52 thousand km)0.0008 AU (120 thousand km)[12]0.00066 AU (99 thousand km)0.00087 AU (130,000 km)[13]±180 thousand km[14]
    2096-09-04 21:50220000.84 AU (126 million km)[15]0.18 AU (27 million km)[16]0.36 AU (54 million km)0.19 AU (28 million km)[17]±414 million km[15]

    On 17 February 2059 the asteroid will pass 3.5 million km from Earth[3] and reach about apparent magnitude 22.6 by late February. On 10 September 1915 it passed 463000±30000 km from Earth.[3]

    See also

    Notes

    1. ↑ Many small and harmless asteroids (less than ~10 meters in diameter) impact Earth every year but very few are discovered and predicted, see Asteroid impact prediction.

    References

    1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 "2010 RF12". Minor Planet Center$. 8 September 2010. Retrieved 21 January 2020.
    2. ↑ "MPEC 2010-R41 : 2010 RF12". IAU Minor Planet Center. 5 September 2010. Retrieved 17 April 2014. (K10R12F)
    3. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 "JPL Small-Body Database Browser: (2010 RF12)" (2022-08-24 last obs.). Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Archived from the original on 23 December 2022. Retrieved 23 December 2022.
    4. 1 2 3 4 5 "Earth Impact Risk Summary: 2010 RF12". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. Archived from the original on 22 January 2017. Retrieved 23 December 2022.
    5. ↑ "Harvard scientists keep an eye on wayward asteroids". Boston Globe Media Partners. 8 September 2010. Archived from the original on 9 September 2010. Retrieved 21 January 2020.
    6. ↑ "Second Asteroid to Buzz Earth Later Today". National Geographic. 8 September 2010. Archived from the original on 11 September 2010. Retrieved 21 January 2020.
    7. ↑ "Sentry Risk Table". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. Archived from the original on 11 September 2010. Retrieved 23 December 2022.
    8. ↑ "MPEC 2022-S77 : 2010 RF12". IAU Minor Planet Center. 19 September 2022. Retrieved 19 September 2022.
    9. 1 2 "Horizons Batch for 2095-09-06 00:06 Earth Approach". JPL Horizons. Archived from the original on 23 December 2022. Retrieved 23 December 2022. RNG_3sigma = uncertainty range in km. (JPL#25/Soln.date: 2022-Dec-20 generates RNG_3sigma = 180405 for 2095-Sep-06 00:06.)
    10. ↑ How a Near-Earth Object Impact Might Affect Society, 9 January 2003, Clark R. Chapman, SwRI, Boulder CO USA
    11. ↑ "Five Years after the Chelyabinsk Meteor: NASA Leads Efforts in Planetary Defense". NASA Planetary Defense Coordination Office. Archived from the original on 2 January 2022. Retrieved 19 January 2022.
    12. ↑ "2010RF12 Ephemerides for 5−6 September 2095". NEODyS (Near Earth Objects – Dynamic Site). Archived from the original on 6 July 2022. Retrieved 21 January 2020. (NEODyS Close Approach Table))
    13. ↑ "Find_Orb for 2095-09-06". Project Pluto. Archived from the original on 6 July 2022. Retrieved 6 July 2022.
    14. ↑ "Horizons Batch for 2095-09-05 23:46 Virtual Impactor Time". JPL Horizons. Archived from the original on 23 December 2022. Retrieved 12 June 2022. RNG_3sigma = uncertainty range in km. (JPL#25/Soln.date: 2022-Dec-20 generates RNG_3sigma = 177649 for 2095-Sep-05 23:46.)
    15. 1 2 "Horizons Batch for 2096-09-04 21:50 Virtual Impactor Time". JPL Horizons. Archived from the original on 7 July 2022. Retrieved 7 July 2022.
    16. ↑ "2010RF12 Ephemerides for 4−5 September 2096". NEODyS (Near Earth Objects – Dynamic Site). Archived from the original on 23 December 2022. Retrieved 23 December 2022.
    17. ↑ "Find_Orb for 2096-09-05". Project Pluto. Archived from the original on 23 December 2022. Retrieved 23 December 2022.
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