2020 Florida Senate election
November 3, 2020 (2020-11-03)
20 of the 40 seats in the Florida Senate
21 seats needed for a majority
Turnout38.62%
  Majority party Minority party
 
Leader Wilton Simpson Audrey Gibson
Party Republican Democratic
Leader since November 26, 2018 November 19, 2018
Leader's seat 10th-Trilby 6th-Jacksonville
Last election 23 seats, 53.99% 17 seats, 45.74%
Seats won 24 16
Seat change Increase 1 Decrease 1
Popular vote 2,663,076 2,642,318
Percentage 49.03% 48.65%
Swing Decrease 4.96% Increase 2.91%
Results:
     Republican gain
     Republican hold      Democratic hold
     No election
President before election

Bill Galvano
Republican

 Elected President

Wilton Simpson
Republican

The 2020 elections for the Florida Senate took place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, to elect state senators from 20 of 40 districts. The Republican Party has held a Senate majority since 1995. The result was a one-seat gain for the Republicans, thus maintaining their majority.[1]

The elections for U.S. President, U.S. House of Representatives, and the Florida House of Representatives were also held on this date.[2]

Republican operatives, supported by Florida Power & Light,[3] ran sham ghost candidates in three races. In District 37, former senator Frank Artiles had Alex Rodriguez placed on the ballot to successfully siphon votes from Senator José Javier Rodríguez.[4] Both Artiles and Alex Rodriguez were charged and fined for electoral fraud.[5]

Competitive races

The most competitive races are expected to be the Democratic-held open Senate District 3 in North Florida, the Republican-held open District 9 to the northeast of Orlando, the special election in the Tampa area's open Republican-held District 20, the Democratic-held Senate District 37 in South Florida, and the Republican-held open District 39 in South Florida.[6][7]

2016 Presidential Results[8] and 2020 Candidates in Competitive Races:

Senate districtClinton 2016 vote shareTrump 2016 vote share2020 Democratic nominee2020 Republican nominee
District 352.60% Clinton43.95% TrumpLoranne AusleyMarva Harris Preston
District 945.98% Clinton49.87% TrumpPatricia SigmanJason Brodeur
District 2043.99% Clinton52.28% TrumpKathy LewisDanny Burgess
District 3759.55% Clinton37.89% TrumpJosé Javier RodríguezIleana Garcia
District 3953.74% Clinton43.49% TrumpJavier FernandezAna Maria Rodriguez

Overview

Party Votes % Seats
Total
before		 Up Won Total
after		 +/−
Republican Party of Florida 2,663,076 49.03 23 10 11 24 +1
Florida Democratic Party 2,642,318 48.65 17 10 9 16 -1
Independent 125,497 2.31 0 0 0 0 -
Write-in 603 0.01 0 0 0 0 -
Total 5,431,494 100.00 40 20 20 40 ±0
Source: Florida Division of Elections[9][10]
Popular vote
Republican
 
 49.03%
Democratic
 
 48.65%
Other
 
 2.32%
House seats
Republican
 
 60%
Democratic
 
 40%

Closest races

Seats where the margin of victory was under 10%:

  1. District 37, 0.02% gain
  2. District 9, 2.7%
  3. District 3, 6.8%
  4. District 20, 9.6%

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[11] Lean R October 21, 2020

Primary election polling

District 27 - Republican

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Heather
Fitzhagen		 Ray
Rodriguez		 Undecided
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics July 28, 2020 463 (LV) ± 4.6% 18% 59% 23%
Remington Research Group/Heather Fitzhagen[upper-alpha 1] July 20, 2020 1,229 (LV) ± 3% 22% 44% 34%
Remington Research Group/Heather Fitzhagen[upper-alpha 1] June 18–19, 2020 460 (LV) ± 4.5% 34% 24% 42%

District 29 - Democratic

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Tina
Polsky		 Irving "Irv"
Slosberg		 Undecided
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics August 14, 2020 477 (LV) ± 4.5% 49% 37% 13%

District 39 - Democratic

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Javier E.
Fernandez		 Daniel "Dan"
Horton-Diaz		 Undecided
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics August 1–2, 2020 203 (LV) ± 6.9% 24% 16% 61%

Retiring incumbents

Democrats

Republicans

General election polling

District 3

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Loranne
Ausley (D)		 Marva
Preston (R)		 Undecided
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics October 17–18, 2020 948 (LV) – 51% 44% 5%
ALG Research/Florida Senate Victory Fund/FDLCC[upper-alpha 2] October 15, 2020 503 (V) – 48% 40% –

District 9

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Jason
Brodeur (R)		 Patricia
Sigman (D)		 Jestine
Ianotti (I)		 Undecided
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics October 31 – November 1, 2020 522 (LV) ± 4.3% 42% 49% 2% 7%
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics October 17–18, 2020 490 (LV) ± 4.4% 43% 52% – 5%
GQR Research/Florida Senate Victory Fund/FDLCC[upper-alpha 3] October 16, 2020 400 (V) – 42% 42% – –

District 20

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Danny
Burgess (R)		 Kathy
Lewis (D)		 Undecided
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics October 24–25, 2020 644 (LV) ± 3.9% 45% 44% 12%

District 37

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 José Javier
Rodríguez (D)		 Ileana
Garcia (R)
SEA Research/Florida Senate Victory Fund/FDLCC[upper-alpha 4] October 13, 2020 400 (V) – 42% 37%

District 39

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Ana Maria
Rodriguez (R)		 Javier
Fernandez (D)
GQR Research/Florida Senate Victory Fund/FDLCC[upper-alpha 5] October 9, 2020 503 (V) – 43% 43%
Tyson Group/Let's Preserve the American Dream PAC September 8–11, 2020 – (V)[lower-alpha 2] – 37% 31%
Tyson Group/Let's Preserve the American Dream PAC July, 2020 – (V)[lower-alpha 3] – 31% 28%

Results

District 1 • District 3 • District 5 • District 7 • District 9 • District 11 • District 13 • District 15 • District 17 • District 19 • District 20 • District 21 • District 23 • District 25 • District 27 • District 29 • District 31 • District 35 • District 37 • District 39

[12]

District 1

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Douglas V. Broxson 185,380 65.3%
Democratic Karen M. Butler 98,407 34.7%
Total votes 293,787 100%
Republican hold

District 3

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Loranne Ausley 137,609 53.4%
Republican Marva Harris Preston 120,176 46.6%
Total votes 257,785 100%
Democratic hold

District 5

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Jennifer Bradley 194,198 74.8%
Democratic Stacey L. Peters 65,568 25.2%
Total votes 259,766 100%
Republican hold

District 7

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Travis J. Hutson 212,577 61.7%
Democratic Heather Hunter 131,763 38.3%
Independent Richard Dembinsky (Write in) 13 0.0%
Total votes 344,353 100%
Republican hold

District 9

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Jason Brodeur 141,544 50.3%
Democratic Patricia Sigman 133,900 47.6%
Independent Jestine Iannotti 5,787 2.1%
Total votes 281,231 100%
Republican hold

District 11

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Randolph Bracy 147,244 65.0%
Republican Joshua Eli Adams 79,224 35.0%
Total votes 226,468 100%
Democratic hold

District 13

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Linda Stewart 152,769 60.6%
Republican Josh Anderson 99,134 39.4%
Total votes 251,903 100%
Democratic hold

District 15

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Victor M. Torres 180,185 57.1%
Republican Louis T. Minnis 123,153 39.0%
Independent Mike James 12,207 3.9%
Total votes 315,545 100%
Democratic hold

District 17

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Debbie Mayfield 193,560 60.6%
Democratic Scot Fretwell 114,515 35.9%
Independent Phillip Snyder 11,323 3.5%
Total votes 319,398 100%
Republican hold

District 19

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Darryl Ervin Rouson 174,343 68.7%
Independent Christina Paylan 79,463 31.3%
Total votes 253,806 100%
Democratic hold

District 20

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Danny Burgess 141,607 54.8%
Democratic Kathy Lewis 116,685 45.2%
Total votes 258,292 100%
Republican hold

District 21

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Jim Boyd 191,673 61.0%
Democratic Anthony "Tony" Eldon 122,480 39.0%
Total votes 314,153 100%
Republican hold

District 23

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Joe Gruters 188,126 57.7%
Democratic Katherine Norman 131,491 40.3%
Independent Robert Kaplan 6,696 2.1%
Total votes 326,313 100%
Republican hold

District 25

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Gayle Harrell 168,063 58.7
Democratic Corinna Robinson 118,211 41.3
Total votes 286,274 100.0
Republican hold

District 27

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Ray Rodrigues 176,954 60.5%
Democratic Rachel Brown 115,537 39.5%
Total votes 292,491 100%
Republican hold

District 29

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Tina Polsky 156,441 55.7%
Republican Brian Norton 124,502 44.3%
Total votes 280,943 100%
Democratic hold

District 31

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Lori Berman 156,495 62.2%
Republican Tami Donnally 95,019 37.8%
Total votes 251,514 100%
Democratic hold

District 35

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Shevrin "Shev" Jones 188,942 99.7%
Independent Darien Hill (Write in) 590 0.3%
Total votes 189,532 100%
Democratic hold

District 37

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Ileana Garcia 104,630 48.53%
Democratic José Javier Rodríguez (Incumbent) 104,598 48.51%
Independent Alex Rodriguez 6,382 2.96%
Total votes 215,610 100%
Republican gain from Democratic

District 39

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Ana Maria Rodriguez 123,556 55.6%
Democratic Javier E. Fernandez 95,135 42.8%
Independent Celso D. Alfonso 3,639 1.6%
Total votes 222,330 100%
Republican hold

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ Not yet released
  3. ↑ Not yet released
Partisan clients
  1. 1 2 Poll sponsored by Fitzhagen's campaign
  2. ↑ The Florida Senate Victory Fund and the FDLCC supported Ausley prior to the sampling period
  3. ↑ The Florida Senate Victory Fund and the FDLCC supported Sigman prior to the sampling period
  4. ↑ The Florida Senate Victory Fund and the FDLCC supported Javier Rodriguez prior to the sampling period
  5. ↑ The Florida Senate Victory Fund and the FDLCC supported Fernandez prior to the sampling period

See also

References

  1. ↑ "Florida State Senate elections, 2020". Ballotpedia. Retrieved December 3, 2020.
  2. ↑ "Florida 2020 General Election".
  3. ↑ Martin, Jason Garcia, Annie (December 2, 2021). "Florida Power & Light execs worked closely with consultants behind 'ghost' candidate scheme, records reveal | Special Report". orlandosentinel.com. Retrieved December 2, 2021.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  4. ↑ Fox, Greg (August 5, 2021). "Deception and dark money: Court documents show scheme of ghost candidates in Florida senate races". WESH. Retrieved December 2, 2021.
  5. ↑ Harper, Mark. "Florida Senate 'ghost' candidate Alex Rodriguez faces $20,000 ethics fine". Daytona Beach News-Journal Online. Retrieved December 2, 2021.
  6. ↑ Call, James. "Barack Obama weighs in on Florida Senate races; endorses Ausley for North Florida seat". Tallahassee Democrat. USA Today Network. Retrieved September 26, 2020.
  7. ↑ Wilson, Kirby. "Florida Democrat: I can lift Biden and flip state Senate. Why won't my party help?". Tampa Bay Times. Retrieved September 26, 2020.
  8. ↑ "Florida 2016 pres-by-sd.xlsx". Google Docs (Cited in Tampa Bay Times). Tampa Bay Times. Retrieved September 26, 2020.
  9. ↑ "Election Results Data Extract Utility". results.elections.myflorida.com. Retrieved December 3, 2020.
  10. ↑ "Voter Registration - By County and Party - Division of Elections - Florida Department of State". dos.myflorida.com. Retrieved December 3, 2020.
  11. ↑ "October Overview: Handicapping the 2020 State Legislature Races". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 1, 2020.
  12. ↑ "2020 Florida State Senate Election Results". results.elections.myflorida.com.
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