2021 Baden-Württemberg state election

14 March 2021
All 154 seats in the Landtag of Baden-Württemberg (including 34 overhang and leveling seats) 78 seats needed for a majority
Turnout	4,895,238 (63.8%) 6.6%
First party Second party Third party   Candidate Winfried Kretschmann Susanne Eisenmann Andreas Stoch Party Greens CDU SPD Leader's seat Nürtingen (1st) ran in Stuttgart II (not elected) Heidenheim (2nd) Last election 47 seats, 30.3% 42 seats, 27.0% 19 seats, 12.7% Seats won 58 42 19 Seat change 11 Popular vote 1,585,903 1,168,745 535,462 Percentage 32.6% 24.1% 11.0% Swing 2.3% 2.9% 1.7%   Fourth party Fifth party   Candidate Hans-Ulrich Rülke Bernd Gögel Party FDP AfD Leader's seat Pforzheim (2nd) Enz (2nd) Last election 12 seats, 8.3% 23 seats, 15.1% Seats won 18 17 Seat change 6 6 Popular vote 508,278 473,309 Percentage 10.5% 9.7% Swing 2.2% 5.4%
Winners of each constituency Winning candidates in the single-member constituencies, with second mandate seats shown in the top right.
Government before election Second Kretschmann cabinet Green–CDU Government after election Third Kretschmann cabinet Green–CDU

The 2021 Baden-Württemberg state election was held on 14 March 2021 to elect the 17th Landtag of Baden-Württemberg.^[1] The outgoing government was a coalition of Alliance 90/The Greens and the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) led by Minister-President Winfried Kretschmann.

The Greens remained the largest party with 32.6% of votes, an increase of two percentage points. Their junior coalition partner, the CDU, suffered its worst result in state history, falling to 24%. The opposition Social Democratic Party (SPD) also recorded a decline, but rose from fourth to third place. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) made small gains. Alternative for Germany (AfD) lost more than a third of their vote share and became the smallest party in the Landtag.^[2]

The CDU and SPD each recorded no net change in seats thanks to an increase in the size of the Landtag caused by a number of overhang seats won by the Greens. Overall, the governing coalition was returned with an increased majority, but an alternative coalition between the Greens, SPD, and FDP also won a majority; the Greens and SPD together fell one seat short of a majority.^[3] On 2 April, the Greens voted to enter negotiations with the CDU.^[4] The two parties finalised a coalition agreement on 1 May.^[5] Kretschmann was re-elected as Minister-President on 12 May.^[6]

Election date

The period of the 16th Landtag formally ends on 30 April 2021. The election of the 17th Landtag must take place before this date. On 24 March 2020, the state government designated 14 March 2021 as the date for the next election, in accordance with Section 19 of the State Parliament Election Act.^[1] A state election was held on the same day in neighbouring state of Rhineland-Palatinate.

Electoral system

The Landtag is elected via mixed-member proportional representation. 70 members are elected in single-member constituencies via first-past-the-post voting. 50 members are then allocated using compensatory proportional representation, distributed in each of Baden-Württemberg's four government districts. Unlike other states, Baden-Württemberg does not use party lists to fill proportional seats; instead, they are filled by the best-performing candidates who failed to be elected in the single-member constituencies. Candidates elected in this manner are listed as winning a "second mandate" (Zweitmandat) in the constituency in which they ran. The minimum size of the Landtag is 120 members, but if overhang seats are present, proportional leveling seats will be added to ensure proportionality. An electoral threshold of 5% of valid votes is applied to the Landtag; parties that fall below this threshold are excluded.^[1]

Background

In the previous election held on 13 March 2016, The Greens became the largest party for the first time in any German state, winning 30.3% of votes cast. The CDU lost 12 percentage points, falling to second place on 27.0%. Alternative for Germany contested their first state election in Baden-Württemberg, placing third with 15.1%. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) lost almost half its voteshare and finished with 12.7%. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) won 8.3%.

The Greens had led a coalition with the SPD since 2011, but this government lost its majority in the election. The Greens subsequently formed a coalition with the CDU, which took office as Cabinet Kretschmann II.

Parties

The table below lists the parties represented in the 16th Landtag.

In addition to the parties already represented in the Landtag, sixteen parties contested the election:^[7]

Campaign

Opinion polling

Graphical summary

Local regression of polls conducted.

Minister-President polling

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size				None/Unsure	Lead
			Kretschmann Grüne	Strobl CDU	Eisenmann CDU
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	1–4 Mar 2021	1,032	70	–	11	19	59
Infratest dimap	1–3 Mar 2021	1,185	65	–	17	18	48
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	1–4 Feb 2021	1,032	70	–	13	17	57
Infratest dimap	1–2 Feb 2021	1,000	65	–	16	13	49
INSA	5–11 Jan 2021	1,010	52	–	12	23	40
Infratest dimap	8–13 Oct 2020	1,001	66	–	13	12	53
Infratest dimap	16–17 Sep 2019	1,004	69	–	13	9	56
Infratest dimap	20–26 Mar 2019	1,002	63	17	–	12	46
Forsa	29 Jan–1 Feb 2019	1,007	59	5	–	–	54
Infratest dimap	5–10 Sep 2018	1,003	67	14	–	10	53

Results

First mandates by constituency (Wahlkreis)

Party		Votes	%	Swing	Seats			+/–
					Constituency	Party-list	Total
	Alliance 90/The Greens (GRÜNE)	1,586,192	32.6	2.3	58	0	58	11
	Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU)	1,168,975	24.1	2.9	12	30	42	0
	Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD)	535,489	11.0	1.7	0	19	19	0
	Free Democratic Party (FDP)	508,429	10.5	2.2	0	18	18	6
	Alternative for Germany (AfD)	473,485	9.7	5.4	0	17	17	6
	The Left (LINKE)	173,317	3.6	0.7	0	0	0	0
	Free Voters (FW)	146,259	3.0	2.9	0	0	0	0
	Die PARTEI	59,463	1.2	0.9	0	0	0	0
	Grassroots Democratic Party of Germany	48,497	1.0	New	0	0	0	New
	Climate List Baden-Württemberg	42,685	0.9	New	0	0	0	New
	Party WIR2020	41,128	0.8	New	0	0	0	New
	Ecological Democratic Party	37,819	0.8	0.1	0	0	0	0
	Volt Germany	22,782	0.5	New	0	0	0	New
	Alliance C – Christians for Germany	4,081	0.1	0.1	0	0	0	0
	Pirate Party Germany	2,878	0.1	0.3	0	0	0	0
	Democracy in Motion	1,005	0.0	New	0	0	0	New
	Party of Humanists	976	0.0	New	0	0	0	New
	Humane World	975	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
	Party for Health Research	468	0.0	New	0	0	0	New
	One for All – Party	178	0.0	New	0	0	0	New
	German Communist Party	107	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
	Independents	4,463	0.1	0.1	0	–	0	0
Total		4,859,651	100.0	–	70	84	154	11
Invalid/blank votes		34,849	0.7
Registered voters/turnout		7,671,039	63.8	6.6
Source: State Returning Officer

Aftermath

The CDU suffered its worst ever result in the state, falling to 24%. Lead candidate Susanne Eisenmann, whose approval ratings as a minister were described by the Tagesschau as "moderate to bad", claimed responsibility for the poor result. However, factors such as disputes about the state government's response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and the "mask scandal" which broke a few days before the election, were cited as contributing factors.^[16]

Both the incumbent Green–CDU coalition and an alternative centre-left "traffic light coalition" of the Greens, SPD, and FDP garnered a majority, leading to speculation about a possible change in the governing arrangement.^[16] Combined with the successful re-election of a traffic light government in neighbouring Rhineland-Palatinate the same day, this sparked discussion about the arrangement nationally, including its viability on the federal level.^[17] However, the Greens of Baden-Württemberg are considered to be more conservative by the national party standards, with Kretschmann himself identifying as a green conservative and has been associated with economically liberal viewpoints, in addition to being a practicing Catholic.^[18][19][20]

See also

• 2021 Rhineland-Palatinate state election

Notes

References