2023–24 Australian region cyclone season
Season summary map
Seasonal boundaries
First system formed4 December 2023
Last system dissipatedSeason ongoing
Strongest storm
NameJasper
  Maximum winds195 km/h (120 mph)
(10-minute sustained)
  Lowest pressure938 hPa (mbar)
Seasonal statistics
Tropical lows4
Tropical cyclones1
Severe tropical cyclones1
Total fatalities1
Total damage$675 million (2024 USD)
Related articles

The 2023–24 Australian region cyclone season is the current tropical cyclone season in the Southern Hemisphere, in the Australian Region, that lies between 90° E and 160° E. The season officially started on 1 November 2023 and will end on 30 April 2024, however, a tropical cyclone could form at any time between 1 July 2023 and 30 June 2024 and would count towards the season total. During the season, tropical cyclones will be officially monitored by one of the three tropical cyclone warning centres (TCWCs) for the region which are operated by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, National Weather Service of Papua New Guinea and the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics. The United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and other national meteorological services including Météo-France and the Fiji Meteorological Service will also monitor the basin during the season.

Season forecasts

Source/Record Tropical
Cyclone
Severe
Tropical Cyclone
Ref
Record high:2112[1]
Record low:30[1]
Average (1969–70 – 2023–24):11[2]
Region Chance
of less
Average
number
Ref
Whole (90°E–160°E) 80% 11 [2]
Western (90°E–125°E) 72% 7 [2]
North-Western (105°E–130°E) 75% 5 [2]
Northern (125°E–142.5°E) 61% 3 [2]
Eastern (142.5°E–160°E) 76% 4 [2]
Western South Pacific (142.5°E—165°E) 68% 4 [3]
Eastern South Pacific (165°E—120°W) 40% 6 [3]

Ahead of the season officially starting on 1 November, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) and New Zealand's National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) both issued a tropical cyclone outlook that discussed the upcoming season.[2][4] These outlooks took into account a variety of factors such as a developing El Niño event and what had happened in previous seasons such as 1972–73, 1982–83, 1997–98, 2009–10 and 2015–16.[2][4] Within their seasonal outlook for the Australian region, the BoM suggested that there was an 80% chance, that the whole region between 90°E – 160°E, would be below average, having less than the long term average of 11 tropical cyclones.[2] They also suggested that each of their self-defined Western, Northern, North-western and Eastern regions would see a below-average amount of tropical cyclone activity.[2]

The BoM also issued a seasonal forecast that discussed tropical cyclone activity over the South Pacific Ocean for their self-defined eastern and western regions of the South Pacific Ocean.[3] Within this forecast, they predicted that their western region between 142.5°E and 165°E would have a below average amount of activity, while their eastern region between 165°E and 120°W had a 60% chance of seeing activity above its average of 6 tropical cyclones.[3] Along with other Pacific Meteorological Services, the BoM contributed to NIWA's Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone outlook, which predicted that nine and fourteen tropical cyclones would occur between 135°E and 120°W.[4] At least four to eight of these systems were expected to intensify further and become either a Category 3, 4 or 5 severe tropical cyclone on the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale.[2]

Season summary

Cyclone Jasper

Early activity

The season officially started on 1 November, however the first system, Cyclone Jasper, was not active until 4 December, when it crossed into the basin as a tropical low from the South Pacific. The low became a named storm on 5 December, receiving the name Jasper,[5] and intensified into the season's first severe tropical cyclone the next day.[6] Jasper made landfall in Far North Queensland as a Category 2 tropical cyclone on 13 December.[7] After a significant lull in activity, Tropical Lows 04U and 03U formed on January 10 and 11 respectively.[8][9] Tropical Low 05U formed on 12 January.

Systems

Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper

Category 4 severe tropical cyclone (Australian scale)
Category 4 tropical cyclone (SSHWS)
 
Duration4 December (Entered basin) – 18 December
Peak intensity195 km/h (120 mph) (10-min);
938 hPa (mbar)

On 2 December, the BoM reported that Tropical Disturbance 03F, which was re-designated as Tropical Low 02U, had formed in the South Pacific Ocean in Fiji's area of responsibility.[10] Two days later, on 00:00 UTC of 4 December, the system would enter the Australian area of responsibility.[11][12] The JTWC issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) later that day, projecting a high likelihood of a significant tropical cyclone developing.[13] Later the next day, the JTWC subsequently initiated advisories on the system and classified it as Tropical Cyclone 03P.[14] The BoM subsequently followed suit and upgraded it to a Category 1 tropical cyclone, naming it Jasper.[5] Jasper started to track southward under the steering influence of a near equatorial ridge to the east.[15] During the next day, the cyclone's center continued to organize, with deep convective bands starting to wrap around the center, prompting the JTWC to upgrade the system to a Category 1 hurricane.[16] Jasper rapidly intensified into a Category 3 severe tropical cyclone,[6] due to being in an environment with warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear.[17]

The next day, it further intensified, becoming a Category 4 severe tropical cyclone.[18] Shortly thereafter, Jasper began weakening, with its eye becoming cloud-filled and the deep convection eroding due to dry air entrainment.[19] Jasper would reintensify, and at 12:00 UTC on 13 December, made landfall as a Category 2 tropical cyclone in Wujal Wujal, Queensland.[7] After making landfall, the JTWC discontinue warnings on the system later that day.[20] However, Jasper remained traceable, and the BoM would give the tropical low a moderate chance of redeveloping into a tropical cyclone on 15 December.[21] By 14:00 UTC that day, the BoM reported that Jasper had weakened to a tropical low.[22] However, Jasper remained traceable, and the BoM would give the tropical low a moderate chance of redeveloping into a tropical cyclone on 15 December.[21] However, they would soon downgrade its chances of re-developing into a very low as the storm turned southeast further inland, and on 18 December, Jasper was last noted over the Cape York Peninsula.[23]

Jasper dropped very heavy rainfall, peaking at 2,252 mm (88.7 in) at Bairds near the Daintree River. If verified, this would make Jasper the wettest tropical cyclone to impact Australia on record.[24] Many locals used personal watercraft to extract people who were trapped on their roofs within the coastal suburbs.[25] Some flights were canceled at the Cairns Airport.[26] One man died and missing due to flooding caused by Jasper.[27][28] Insurance Council of Australia estimate that Jasper was responsible at AU$1 billion (US$675 million).[29]

Tropical Low 04U

Tropical low (Australian scale)
Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
Duration10 January – Present
Peak intensity55 km/h (35 mph) (10-min);
1004 hPa (mbar)

On 9 January, the BoM noted that a tropical low may form in the Indian Ocean, designating it as 04U.[30] Later the next day, the BoM reported that it had formed to the northwest of the Cocos Islands.[8] On 11 January, the JTWC would begin to monitor the low.[31] Three days later, they would issue a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCWC), expecting it to become a tropical cyclone.[32]

Current warnings

Tropical Cyclone Watch
Gale-force winds
possible within 48 hours.
Source: Tropical Cyclone Advice (Qld)
The above information may not be accurate, comprehensive or up-to-date. Always consult official meteorological departments, government agencies and emergency services when making decisions.

Tropical Low 03U

Tropical low (Australian scale)
 
Duration11 January – Present
Peak intensityWinds not specified;
1001 hPa (mbar)

On 7 January, the BoM noted the possibility of a tropical low forming near the north Kimberley, as a monsoon trough was expected to develop along the Top End. It was predesignated as 03U.[33] This came to fruition 4 days later, when the BoM reported that it was developing over the southern Joseph Bonaparte Gulf within the trough.[9] The JTWC would begin to monitor it on January 14.[34]

Tropical Low 05U

Tropical low (Australian scale)
 
Duration12 January – Present
Peak intensityWinds not specified;
1002 hPa (mbar)

Alongside 04U, the BoM also noted the possibility of a tropical low forming within the monsoon trough over the Gulf of Carpentaria on 9 January. It was predesignated as 05U.[30] 3 days later, the BoM reported that it was developing over the eastern portion of the gulf.[35]

Storm names

Bureau of Meteorology

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (TCWC Melbourne) monitors all tropical cyclones that form within the Australian region, including any within the areas of responsibility of TCWC Jakarta or TCWC Port Moresby.[36] Should a tropical low reach tropical cyclone strength within the BoM's area of responsibility, it will be assigned the next name from the following naming list. The names that will be used for the 2023–24 season are listed below:

  • Jasper
  • Kirrily (unused)
  • Lincoln (unused)
  • Megan (unused)
  • Neville (unused)
  • Olga (unused)
  • Paul (unused)
  • Robyn (unused)
  • Sean (unused)
  • Taliah (unused)
  • Vince (unused)
  • Zelia (unused)

TCWC Jakarta

TCWC Jakarta monitors all tropical cyclones active from the Equator to 11S and from 90E to 145E. Should a tropical depression intensify into a tropical cyclone within TCWC Jakarta's Area of Responsibility, it will be assigned the next name from the following list.[36]

  • Anggrek (unused)
  • Bakung (unused)
  • Cempaka (unused)
  • Dahlia (unused)
  • Flamboyan (unused)
  • Lili (unused)

TCWC Port Moresby

Tropical cyclones that develop north of 11°S between 151°E and 160°E are assigned names by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre in Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea. Tropical cyclone formation in this area is rare, with no cyclones being named in it since 2007.[37] As names are assigned in a random order, the whole list is shown below:

  • Hibu (unused)
  • Ila (unused)
  • Kama (unused)
  • Lobu (unused)
  • Maila (unused)
  • Alu (unused)
  • Buri (unused)
  • Dodo (unused)
  • Emau (unused)
  • Fere (unused)

Season effects

This table lists all of the tropical cyclones and subtropical cyclones that were monitored during the 2023–2024 Australian region cyclone season. Information on their intensity, duration, name, areas affected, primarily comes from TCWC Melbourne. Death and damage reports come from either press reports or the relevant national disaster management agency while the damage totals are given in 2023 or 2024 USD.

2023–24 Australian region cyclone season
Name Dates Peak intensity Areas affected Damage
(US$)
Deaths
Category Wind speed
(km/h (mph))
Pressure
(hPa)
Jasper 4–18 Dec Category 4 severe tropical cyclone 195 (120) 938 Solomon Islands, Queensland 675 million 1 [38]
04U 10 Jan  Present Tropical low 55 (35) 1004 None None 0
03U 11 Jan  Present Tropical low Not specified 1001 None None 0
05U 12 Jan  Present Tropical low Not specified 1002 None None 0
Season aggregates
4 systems 4 Dec  Present 195 (120) 938 None 1

See also

References

  1. 1 2 "Australian Tropical Cyclone Database" (CSV). Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 30 June 2023. Retrieved 30 June 2023. A guide on how to read the database is available here.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Australian tropical cyclone season long-range forecast for 2023 to 2024 (Report). Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 9 October 2022. Archived from the original on 17 October 2023.
  3. 1 2 3 4 South Pacific tropical cyclone season forecast for 2023 to 2024 (Report). Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 12 October 2023. Archived from the original on 12 October 2023. Retrieved 12 October 2023.
  4. 1 2 3 2023-24 Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook (PDF) (Report). New Zealand's National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research. 12 October 2023. Archived from the original (PDF) on 12 October 2023. Retrieved 12 October 2023.
  5. 1 2 Eastern Region Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin issued at 0740 UTC 05/12/2023 (Report). Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 5 December 2023. Archived from the original on 5 December 2023. Retrieved 5 December 2023.
  6. 1 2 Eastern Region Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin issued at 0155 UTC 06/12/2023 (Report). Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 6 December 2023. Archived from the original on 6 December 2023. Retrieved 6 December 2023.
  7. 1 2 "Cyclone Jasper makes landfall in Australia". AFP. 13 December 2023.
  8. 1 2 Tropical Cyclone Forecast 11:54 pm UTC 10 January 2024 (Report). Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 10 January 2024. Archived from the original on 11 January 2024. Retrieved 11 January 2024.
  9. 1 2 Tropical Cyclone Forecast 08:36 am UTC. 11 January 2024 (Report). Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 11 January 2024. Archived from the original on 11 January 2024. Retrieved 11 January 2024.
  10. Tropical cyclone forecast 7 day forecast map (Report). Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 2 December 2023. Archived from the original on 2 December 2023.
  11. Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W issued from RSMC Nadi Dec 030740 UTC (Report). Fiji Meteorological Service. 4 December 2023. Archived from the original on 4 December 2023. Retrieved 4 December 2023.
  12. Tropical cyclone forecast 7 day forecast map (Report). Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 4 December 2023. Archived from the original on 4 December 2023.
  13. Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (Invest 92P) (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 4 December 2023. Archived from the original on 4 December 2023. Retrieved 4 December 2023.
  14. Prognostic Reasoning for Tropical Cyclone 03P (Three) Warning No. 1 (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 5 December 2023. Archived from the original on 5 December 2023. Retrieved 5 December 2023.
  15. Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin for Tropical Cyclone Jasper issued at 13:14 UTC on 5 December 2022 (Eastern Region) (Report). Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 18 December 2022. Archived from the original on 5 December 2023. Retrieved 5 December 2023.
  16. Prognostic Reasoning for Tropical Cyclone 03P (Jasper) Warning No. 5 (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 6 December 2023. Archived from the original on 6 December 2023. Retrieved 6 December 2023.
  17. Eastern Region Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin issued at 0728 UTC 06/12/2023 (Report). Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 6 December 2023. Archived from the original on 6 December 2023. Retrieved 6 December 2023.
  18. Eastern Region Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin issued at 1911 UTC 07/12/2023 (Report). Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 7 December 2023. Archived from the original on 7 December 2023. Retrieved 7 December 2023.
  19. Prognostic Reasoning for Tropical Cyclone 03P (Jasper) Warning No. 14 (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 8 December 2023. Archived from the original on 8 December 2023. Retrieved 8 December 2023.
  20. Tropical Cyclone 03P (Jasper) Warning No. 35 (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 13 December 2023. Archived from the original on 13 December 2023. Retrieved 13 December 2023.
  21. 1 2 Tropical Cyclone 7 Day Forecast issued at 08:38 am UTC 15 December 2023 (Report). Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 15 December 2023. Archived from the original on 15 December 2023. Retrieved 15 December 2023.
  22. Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 38 issued at 11:59 pm EST on Wednesday 13 December 2023 (Report). Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 13 December 2023. Archived from the original on 13 December 2023. Retrieved 13 December 2023.
  23. Tropical Cyclone 7 Day Forecast issued at 08:35 am UTC 18 December 2023 (Report). Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 18 December 2023. Archived from the original on 18 December 2023. Retrieved 19 December 2023.
  24. Bureau of Meteorology. Two Qld locations register Australia's 3rd and 4th wettest day on record, provisional data shows. Retrieved on 18 December 2023.
  25. McLeod, Catie; Wind, Emily (17 December 2023). "Cairns airport closed as Queensland premier declares 'serious weather emergency' amid record flood fears". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Archived from the original on 17 December 2023. Retrieved 17 December 2023.
  26. "Cairns cut off with 'worst flood on record' as mayors call for help from Australian Defence Force". ABC News. 16 December 2023. Archived from the original on 16 December 2023. Retrieved 17 December 2023.
  27. "Search and rescue for missing man, Degarra". Mirage News. Archived from the original on 3 January 2024. Retrieved 19 December 2023.
  28. Jeffries, Sian; McCarthy, Isaac; Roberts, Jami; Achenza, Madeleine (18 December 2023). "Person confirmed dead after flood disaster". The Cairns Post. Archived from the original on 3 January 2024. Retrieved 3 January 2024.
  29. Nicholson, Dylan (31 December 2023). "Cyclone Jasper damage bill estimated to hit $1 billion". The Cairns Post. Archived from the original on 3 January 2024. Retrieved 2 January 2024.
  30. 1 2 Tropical Cyclone Forecast 12:28 am UTC 9 January 2024 (Report). Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 9 January 2024. Archived from the original on 9 January 2024. Retrieved 11 January 2024.
  31. Significant Tropical Weather Advisory for the Indian Ocean, 1800Z 11 January 2024 (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 11 January 2024. Archived from the original on 11 January 2024. Retrieved 11 January 2024.
  32. "TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98S)". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 14 January 2024. Archived from the original on 14 January 2024. Retrieved 14 January 2024.
  33. Tropical Cyclone Forecast 08:20 am UTC 7 January 2024 (Report). Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 7 January 2024. Archived from the original on 7 January 2024. Retrieved 11 January 2024.
  34. "Weather Advisory for the Indian Ocean". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 14 January 2024. Archived from the original on 14 January 2024. Retrieved 14 January 2024.
  35. Tropical Cyclone Forecast 12:16 am UTC 12 January 2024 (Report). Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 12 January 2024. Archived from the original on 12 January 2024. Retrieved 12 January 2024.
  36. 1 2 RA V Tropical Cyclone Committee (2023). Tropical Cyclone Operational Plan for the South-East Indian Ocean and the Southern Pacific Ocean 2023 (PDF) (Report). World Meteorological Organization. Retrieved 23 October 2023.
  37. Gary Padgett (2008). "Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary October". Australian Severe Weather. Archived from the original on 4 July 2013. Retrieved 1 July 2013.
  38. Nicholson, Dylan (31 December 2023). "Cyclone Jasper damage bill estimated to hit $1 billion". The Cairns Post. Retrieved 2 January 2024.
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