Since c. 2010, the number of countries autocratizing (blue) is higher than those democratizing (yellow).

A democratic transition describes a phase in a countries political system as a result of an ongoing change from an authoritarian regime to a democratic one [1][2][3] The process is known as democratisation, political changes moving in a democratic direction.[4] Democratization waves have been linked to sudden shifts in the distribution of power among the great powers, which created openings and incentives to introduce sweeping domestic reforms.[5][6] Although transitional regimes experience more civil unrest,[7][8] they may be considered stable in a transitional phase for decades at a time.[9][10][11] Since the end of the Cold War transitional regimes have become the most common form of government.[12][13] Scholarly analysis of the decorative nature of democratic institutions concludes that the opposite democratic backsliding (autocratization), a transition to authoritarianism is the most prevalent basis of modern hybrid regimes.[14][15][16]

Typology

Autocratization

Countries autocratizing (red) or democratizing (blue) substantially and significantly (2010–2020), according to V-Dem Institute. Countries in grey are substantially unchanged.[17]

Democratic backsliding[lower-alpha 1] is a process of regime change towards autocracy that makes the exercise of political power by the public more arbitrary and repressive.[24][25][26] This process typically restricts the space for public contestation and political participation in the process of government selection.[27][28] Democratic decline involves the weakening of democratic institutions, such as the peaceful transition of power or free and fair elections, or the violation of individual rights that underpin democracies, especially freedom of expression.[29][30] Democratic backsliding is the opposite of democratization.

Proposed causes of democratic backsliding include economic inequality, culturally conservative reactions to societal changes, populist or personalist politics, and external influence from great power politics. During crises, backsliding can occur when leaders impose autocratic rules during states of emergency that are either disproportionate to the severity of the crisis or remain in place after the situation has improved.[31]

While regime change through military coups has declined since the end of the Cold War, more subtle forms of backsliding have increased. During the third wave of democratization in the late twentieth century, many new, weakly institutionalized democracies were established; these regimes have been most vulnerable to democratic backsliding.[32][30] The third wave of autocratization has been ongoing since 2010, when the number of liberal democracies was at an all-time high.[33][34] One quarter of the world's population lives under democratically backsliding hybrid regimes as of 2021.[35]

Democratisation

Map showing democratization of countries after the Cold War

Democratization, or democratisation, is the democratic transition to a more democratic political regime, including substantive political changes moving in a democratic direction.[36][37]

Whether and to what extent democratization occurs can be influenced by various factors, including economic development, historical legacies, civil society, and international processes. Some accounts of democratization emphasize how elites drove democratization, whereas other accounts emphasize grassroots bottom-up processes.[38] How democratization occurs has also been used to explain other political phenomena, such as whether a country goes to a war or whether its economy grows.[39]

The opposite process is known as democratic backsliding or autocratization.

Factors

Decolonization

Decolonization[lower-alpha 2] or decolonisation[lower-alpha 3] is the undoing of colonialism, the latter being the process whereby imperial nations establish and dominate foreign territories, often overseas.[40] The meanings and applications of the term are disputed. Some scholars of decolonization focus especially on independence movements in the colonies and the collapse of global colonial empires.[41][42] Other scholars extend the meaning to include economic, cultural and psychological aspects of the colonial experience.[43][44]
Except for a few absolute monarchies, most post-colonial states are either republics or constitutional monarchies. These new states had to devise constitutions, electoral systems, and other institutions of representative democracy.

Democratic globalization

Democratic globalization is a social movement towards an institutional system of global democracy.[45] One of its proponents is the British political thinker David Held. In the last decade, Held published a dozen books regarding the spread of democracy from territorially defined nation states to a system of global governance that encapsulates the entire world. For some, democratic mundialisation (from the French term mondialisation) is a variant of democratic globalisation stressing the need for the direct election of world leaders and members of global institutions by citizens worldwide; for others, it is just another name for democratic globalisation.[46]

Democracy promotion

Democracy promotion, also referred to as democracy building, can be domestic policy to increase the quality of already existing democracy or a strand of foreign policy adopted by governments and international organizations that seek to support the spread of democracy as a system of government. Among the reasons for supporting democracy include the belief that countries with a democratic system of governance are less likely to go to war, are likely to be economically better off and socially more harmonious.[47] In democracy building, the process includes the building and strengthening of democracy, in particular the consolidation of democratic institutions, including courts of law, police forces, and constitutions.[48] Some critics have argued that the United States has used democracy promotion to justify military intervention abroad.[49][50]

Outcomes

Democratic consolidation

Democratic consolidation is the process by which a new democracy matures, in a way that it becomes unlikely to revert to authoritarianism without an external shock, and is regarded as the only available system of government within a country.[51][52] A country can be described as consolidated when the current democratic system becomes “the only game in town”,[53] meaning no one in the country is trying to act outside of the set institutions.[54] This is the case when no significant political group seriously attempts to overthrow the democratic regime, the democratic system is regarded as the most appropriate way to govern by the vast majority of the public, and all political actors are accustomed to the fact that conflicts are resolved through established political and constitutional rules.[55][56]

Stalled transition

Hybrid regime

A hybrid regime[lower-alpha 4] is a type of political system often created as a result of an incomplete democratic transition from an authoritarian regime to a democratic one (or vice versa).[lower-alpha 5] Hybrid regimes are categorized as having a combination of autocratic features with democratic ones and can simultaneously hold political repressions and regular elections.[lower-alpha 5] Hybrid regimes are commonly found in developing countries with abundant natural resources such as petro-states.[75][64][76] Although these regimes experience civil unrest, they may be relatively stable and tenacious for decades at a time.[lower-alpha 5] There has been a rise in hybrid regimes since the end of the Cold War.[77][78]

Measurement

Global trend report Bertelsmann Transformation Index 2022[79]

The democracies indices differ in whether they are categorical, such as classifying countries into democracies, hybrid regimes, and autocracies,[80][81] or continuous values.[82] The qualitative nature of democracy indices enables data analytical approaches for studying causal mechanisms of regime transformation processes.

Democracy indices differ in scope and weighting of different aspects of democracy, including the breadth of core democratic institutions, competitiveness and inclusiveness of polyarchy, freedom of expression, various aspects of governance, democratic norm transgressions, co-option of opposition, electoral system manipulation, electoral fraud, and popular support of anti-democratic alternatives.[83][84][85]

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ Other names include autocratization, democratic decline,[18] de-democratization,[19] democratic erosion,[20] democratic decay,[21] democratic recession,[22] democratic regression,[18] and democratic deconsolidation.[23]
  2. ↑ American, Canadian, and Oxford English
  3. ↑ British English and Commonwealth English
  4. ↑ Scholars uses a variety of terms to encompass the "greyzones" between full autocracies and full democracies:[57] such as competitive authoritarianism or semi-authoritarianism or hybrid authoritarianism or electoral authoritarianism or liberal autocracy or delegative democracy or illiberal democracy or guided democracy or semi-democracy or deficient democracy or defective democracy or hybrid democracy.[58][59][60][61][62][63][64][65]
  5. 1 2 3 "Some scholars argue that deficient democracies and deficient autocracies can be seen as examples of hybrid regimes, whereas others argue that hybrid regimes combine characteristics of both democratic and autocratic regimes."[59] Scholars also debate if these regimes are in transition or are inherently a stable political system.[66][67][68][69][70][71][72][73][74]

References

  1. ↑ Arugay, Aries A. (2021). "Democratic Transitions". The Palgrave Encyclopedia of Global Security Studies. Cham: Springer International Publishing. pp. 1–7. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-74336-3_190-1. ISBN 978-3-319-74336-3. S2CID 240235199.
  2. ↑ Munck, G.L. (2001). "Democratic Transitions". International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences. Elsevier. pp. 3425–3428. doi:10.1016/b0-08-043076-7/01135-9. ISBN 9780080430768.
  3. ↑ Cassani, Andrea; Tomini, Luca (2019). "Authoritarian resurgence: towards a unified analytical framework". Italian Political Science Review/Rivista Italiana di Scienza Politica. Cambridge University Press (CUP). 49 (2): 115–120. doi:10.1017/ipo.2019.14. hdl:2434/666535. ISSN 0048-8402. S2CID 199298876.
  4. ↑ Huntington, Samuel P. (2009). "How Countries Democratize". Political Science Quarterly. [The Academy of Political Science, Wiley]. 124 (1): 31–69. doi:10.1002/j.1538-165X.2009.tb00641.x. ISSN 0032-3195. JSTOR 25655609. Retrieved 2023-04-17.
  5. ↑ Gunitsky, Seva (2014). "From Shocks to Waves: Hegemonic Transitions and Democratization in the Twentieth Century". International Organization. 68 (3): 561–597. doi:10.1017/S0020818314000113. ISSN 0020-8183. S2CID 232254486.
  6. ↑ Gunitsky, Seva (2017). Aftershocks. ISBN 978-0-691-17233-0.
  7. ↑ Cook, Scott J; Savun, Burcu (2016). "New democracies and the risk of civil conflict". Journal of Peace Research. SAGE Publications. 53 (6): 745–757. doi:10.1177/0022343316660756. ISSN 0022-3433. S2CID 114918000.
  8. ↑ Crocker, C.A.; Hampson, F.O.; Aall, P. (2016). Managing Conflict in a World Adrift. McGill-Queen's University Press. p. 156. ISBN 978-1-928096-48-1. Retrieved 2023-04-23.
  9. ↑ Sönmez, Hakan (2020-09-30). "Democratic Backsliding or Stabilization?". Politikon: The IAPSS Journal of Political Science. International Association for Political Science Students. 46: 54–78. doi:10.22151/politikon.46.3. ISSN 2414-6633.
  10. ↑ Geddes, Barbara (1999). "What Do We Know About Democratization After Twenty Years?". Annual Review of Political Science. Annual Reviews. 2 (1): 115–144. doi:10.1146/annurev.polisci.2.1.115. ISSN 1094-2939.
  11. ↑ Törnberg, Anton (2018). "Combining transition studies and social movement theory: towards a new research agenda". Theory and Society. Springer Science and Business Media LLC. 47 (3): 381–408. doi:10.1007/s11186-018-9318-6. ISSN 0304-2421. S2CID 255015393.
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  13. ↑ Brownlee, Jason (2009). "Portents of Pluralism: How Hybrid Regimes Affect Democratic Transitions". American Journal of Political Science. [Midwest Political Science Association, Wiley]. 53 (3): 515–532. doi:10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00384.x. ISSN 0092-5853. JSTOR 25548135. Retrieved 2023-04-23.
  14. ↑ "Home - IDEA Global State of Democracy Report". International IDEA. Retrieved Nov 26, 2022.
  15. ↑ Hameed, Dr. Muntasser Majeed (Jun 30, 2022). "Hybrid regimes: An Overview". IPRI Journal. Islamabad Policy Research Institute - IPRI. 22 (1): 1–24. doi:10.31945/iprij.220101. ISSN 1684-9787. S2CID 251173436.
  16. ↑ Caballero-Anthony, M. (2009). Political Change, Democratic Transitions and Security in Southeast Asia. Routledge Security in Asia Pacific Series. Taylor & Francis. p. 7. ISBN 978-1-135-26840-4. Retrieved 2023-04-27.
  17. ↑ Nazifa Alizada, Rowan Cole, Lisa Gastaldi, Sandra Grahn, Sebastian Hellmeier, Palina Kolvani, Jean Lachapelle, Anna Lührmann, Seraphine F. Maerz, Shreeya Pillai, and Staffan I. Lindberg. 2021. Autocratization Turns Viral. Democracy Report 2021. University of Gothenburg: V-Dem Institute. https://www.v-dem.net/media/filer_public/74/8c/748c68ad-f224-4cd7-87f9-8794add5c60f/dr_2021_updated.pdf Archived 14 September 2021 at the Wayback Machine
  18. 1 2 Mietzner, Marcus (2021). "Sources of resistance to democratic decline: Indonesian civil society and its trials". Democratization. 28 (1): 161–178. doi:10.1080/13510347.2020.1796649. S2CID 225475139.
  19. ↑ Mudde, Cas and Kaltwasser, Cristóbal Rovira (2017) Populism: a Very Short Introduction. New York: Oxford University Press. pp.86-96. ISBN 978-0-19-023487-4
  20. ↑ Laebens, Melis G.; Lührmann, Anna (2021). "What halts democratic erosion? The changing role of accountability". Democratization. 28 (5): 908–928. doi:10.1080/13510347.2021.1897109. S2CID 234870008.
  21. ↑ Daly, Tom Gerald (2019). "Democratic Decay: Conceptualising an Emerging Research Field". Hague Journal on the Rule of Law. 11: 9–36. doi:10.1007/s40803-019-00086-2. S2CID 159354232.
  22. ↑ Huq, Aziz Z (2021). "How (not) to explain a democratic recession". International Journal of Constitutional Law. 19 (2): 723–737. doi:10.1093/icon/moab058.
  23. ↑ Chull Shin, Doh (2021). "Democratic deconsolidation in East Asia: exploring system realignments in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan". Democratization. 28 (1): 142–160. doi:10.1080/13510347.2020.1826438. S2CID 228959708.
  24. ↑ Hyde, Susan D. (2020). "Democracy's backsliding in the international environment". Science. 369 (6508): 1192–1196. Bibcode:2020Sci...369.1192H. doi:10.1126/science.abb2434. PMID 32883862. S2CID 221472047.
  25. ↑ Skaaning, Svend-Erik (2020). "Waves of autocratization and democratization: a critical note on conceptualization and measurement" (PDF). Democratization. 27 (8): 1533–1542. doi:10.1080/13510347.2020.1799194. S2CID 225378571. Archived (PDF) from the original on 6 February 2023. Retrieved 7 November 2022.
  26. ↑ Lührmann, Anna; Lindberg, Staffan I. (2019). "A third wave of autocratization is here: what is new about it?". Democratization. 26 (7): 1095–1113. doi:10.1080/13510347.2019.1582029. S2CID 150992660. The decline of democratic regime attributes – autocratization
  27. ↑ Cassani, Andrea; Tomini, Luca (2019). "What Autocratization Is". Autocratization in post-Cold War Political Regimes. Springer International Publishing. pp. 15–35. ISBN 978-3-030-03125-1.
  28. ↑ Walder, D.; Lust, E. (2018). "Unwelcome Change: Coming to Terms with Democratic Backsliding". Annual Review of Political Science. 21 (1): 93–113. doi:10.1146/annurev-polisci-050517-114628. Backsliding entails deterioration of qualities associated with democratic governance, within any regime. In democratic regimes, it is a decline in the quality of democracy; in autocracies, it is a decline in democratic qualities of governance.
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