The population of the region of Palestine, which approximately corresponds to modern Israel and the Palestinian territories, has varied in both size and ethnic composition throughout the history of Palestine.

Studies of Palestine's demographic changes over the millennia have shown that a Jewish majority in the first century CE had changed to a Christian majority by the 3rd century CE,^[4] and later to a Muslim majority, which is thought to have existed in Mandatory Palestine (1920-1948) since at least the 12th century CE, during which the total shift to Arabic language was completed.^[5]

Iron Age

A study by Yigal Shiloh of The Hebrew University suggests that the population of Palestine in the Iron Age could have never exceeded one million. He writes: "... the population of the country in the Roman-Byzantine period greatly exceeded that in the Iron Age..." Shiloh accepted Israeli archaeologist Magen Broshi's estimates of Palestine's population at 1,000,000–1,250,000 and noted that Iron Age Israel's population must have been less considering population growth. "...If we accept Broshi's population estimates, which appear to be confirmed by the results of recent research, it follows that the estimates for the population during the Iron Age must be set at a lower figure."^[6]

One study of population growth from 1,000 BCE to 750 BCE estimated the Jewish population of Palestine (Judah and Israel) had an average natural growth of 0.4 per cent per annum.^[7]

Persian period

After the Babylonian conquest of Judah and exile, the population and settlement density of Jerusalem, the Shephelah and the Naqab desert dropped significantly.^[8] The Persian province of Yehud Medinata was sparsely-populated and predominantly rural, with around half of the settlements of late Iron age Judah and a population of around 30,000 in the 5th to 4th centuries BC.^[9][10] On the other hand, settlement continuity is discerned in the northern parts of the Judean mountains and the Benjamin area. Cities such as Tell en-Nasbeh, Gibeon and Bethel managed to escape destruction and remained continuously inhabited until the early Achaemenid rule.^[8]

As early as the 7th century BC, an Edomite had lived in the Naqab desert and southern Judah, and by the time Judah fell in 586 BC there was already a substantial Edomite population in southern Judah. When the kingdom of Edom itself succumbed, those people continued its traditions in the south, which the Arabic-speaking Qedarites controlled.^{[11][12][8][13]} Edomites, Judahites, Phoenicians, Qedarites and other Arabs.^[14] Based on analysis of epigraphic material and ostraca from the region, around 32% of recorded names were Arabic, 27% were Edomite, 25% were Northwest Semitic, 10% were Judahite (Hebrew) and 5% were Phoenician.^[15] A few names were also classified Egyptian and Old Iranian.^[12]

The exilic returnees resettled during the time of Cyrus the Great, perhaps with a heightened sense of their ethnic identity.^[8] Along the coast of western Palestine, the Phoenicians expanded their presence, while Moabites and Ammonites took refuge in the Cisjordan after the destruction of their kingdoms in 582 BC.^[8]

Hellenic and Hasmonean period

Conquests of John Hyrcanus for a brief period between 134 and 104 BC

Following the Macedonian conquest of the Achaemenid Empire and the subsequent Wars of the Diadochi, Palestine came under Hellenistic rule and was contested by the Seleucids and Ptolemaics.^[16]

Between 167 and 160 BC, the Jewish rebel faction of the Maccabees revolted against Seleucid rule, ultimately leading to the independence of the Hasmonean dynasty. Under John Hyrcanus, the Hasmoneans expanded their territories beyond the traditional confines of Judea and incorporated non-Jewish areas in the process.^{[17][18][19][20]} 1 Maccabees relates that the non-Jewish inhabitants of Gezer and Joppa were expelled by Simon Thassi, who settled Jews in their place.^[21] Coinciding with the account of Josephus, archaeological evidence attests to significant destruction in the urban and rural settlements in Idumaea, Samaria and the coastal cities from the Hasmonean conquests, followed by the resettlement of Jews in the newly conquered territories.^[22] However, there's also evidence that some of the non-Jewish inhabitants stayed, perhaps as long as they assimilated.^[17] Pagan cults also survived in some of the conquered territories such as Scythopolis, where, according to Seyrig, a Hellenized form of the Canaanite pantheon was worshiped.^[23]

Many sites in Idumaea further south experienced destruction, including Maresha, Khirbet el-Rasm, Tel Arad, Khirbet 'Uza and possibly Lachish. The lower city of Maresha and Tel Beersheba were soon abandoned, and evidence for an increased Idumaean presence in Egypt suggests some immigrated there.^[17] Following its conquest the Galilee received significant Jewish migration from Judea, contributing to a 50% increase in settlements, while the pagan population was greatly reduced. By the end of Alexander Jannaeus' reign, the Galilee was also predominantly Jewish.^[24] However, unlike John Hyrcanus, Alexander Jannaeus did not compel the non-Jews to assimilate to the Jewish ethnos and permitted minority ethnē to exist within Hasmonean borders, with the exception of Phoenician coastal cities in the north whom Josephus claims he enslaved.^[17]

Roman period

The Roman conquest of Judea led by Pompey took place in 63 BC. The Roman occupation encompassed the end of Jewish independence in Judea, the last years of the Hasmonean kingdom, the Herodian age and the rise of Christianity, the First Jewish–Roman War, and the fall of Jerusalem and the destruction of the Second Temple.^[25] The total population of Pharisees, the forerunners of modern Rabbinic Judaism, was around 6,000 ("exakischilioi"), according to Josephus.^[26] Local population displacements occurred with the expulsion of the Jews from Jerusalem^[27] – "In the earlier revolt in the previous century, 66–73 CE, Rome destroyed the Temple and forbade Jews to live in the remaining parts of Jerusalem; for this reason, the Rabbis gathered instead on the Mediterranean coast in Yavneh near Jaffa". Dispersal to other parts of the Roman Empire occurred:

"No date or origin can be assigned to the numerous settlements eventually known in the west, and some may have been founded as a result of the dispersal of Palestinian Jews after the revolts of AD 66–70 and 132–5, but it is reasonable to conjecture that many, such as the settlement in Puteoli attested in 4 BC, went back to the late republic or early empire and originated in voluntary emigration and the lure of trade and commerce."^[28]

Modern estimates vary: Applebaum argues that in the Herodian kingdom, there were 1.5 million Jews, a figure Ben David says covers the numbers in Judea alone. Salo Wittmayer Baron estimated the population at 2.3 million at the time of Roman emperor Claudius (reigned 41–54). According to Israeli archeologist Magen Broshi, west of the Jordan River the population certainly did not exceed 1 million:^[29]

"... the population of Palestine in antiquity did not exceed a million persons. It can also be shown, moreover, that this was more or less the size of the population in the peak period – the late Byzantine period, around AD 600"^[30]

Broshi made calculations based on the grain-producing capacity of Palestine and on its role in the indigenous diet, assuming an average annual per-capita consumption of 200 kg. (with a maximum of 250 kg.), which would work out to the limit of a sustainable population of 1,000,000 people, a figure which, Broshi states, remained roughly constant down to the end of the Byzantine period (600 CE).^[31] The proportion of Jews to gentiles is also unknown.^[29]

The Bar Kokhba revolt in the 2nd century saw a major shift in the population of Palestine. The sheer scale and scope of the overall destruction, according to a late epitome of Dio Cassius's Roman History, where he states that Roman war operations in the country had left some 580,000 Jews dead, with many more dying of hunger and disease, while 50 of their most important outposts and 985 of their most famous villages were razed to the ground. "Thus," writes Dio Cassius, "nearly the whole of Judaea was made desolate."^[32][33] Goodblatt contends that while Bar Kokhba rendered much of the Judaean Mountains and the Hebron Hills desolate, Jewish communities continued to thrive in other parts of Judea and Palestine as a whole.

"The destruction of the Jewish metropolis of Jerusalem and its environs and the ventual refoundation of the city as the Roman colony of Aelia Capitolina had lasting repercussions. However, in other parts of Palestine the Jewish population remained strong. Literary and archaeological evidence indicates that in the Late Roman-early Byzantine era Jewish commuinities thrived along the eastern, southern and western edges of Judah, in the Galilee, Golan and the Beisan region. And a strong Jewish presence continued throughout this period in many poleis, including Caesarea Maritima and Scythopolis."^[34]

When exactly Jews became a minority is disputed.^[29][34] Eschel argues that a combination of three events: the rise of Christianity, the Jewish-Roman wars and Jewish Diaspora made Jews in the minority.^[35] David Goodblatt contends that Jews suffered a setback following the Bar Kokhba revolt (132–136), noting that Jews were still in the majority until the 3rd century and even beyond, when Christianity became the empire's official religion, and continued to thrive in different parts of Palestine.^[34] According to Doron Bar, archaeological evidence of synagogue remains demonstrate a central Jewish presence throughout Palestine during the entire Byzantine period.^[36]

The 'ascension' of Constantine the Great in 312 and Christianity becoming the official state religion of Rome in 391, consequently brought to an end Jewish dominance in Palestine.^[37] Already by the mid-3rd century the Jewish majority had been reported to have been lost, while others conclude that a Jewish majority lasted much longer – "What does seem clear is a different kind of change – immigration of Christians and the conversion of pagans, Samaritans, and Jews eventually produced a Christian majority".^[4] After the Bar Kokhba revolt of 132–136 CE the make-up of the population of Palestine remains in doubt due to the sparsity of data in the historical record. Figures vary considerably as to the demographics of Palestine in the Christian era.^[38]

No reliable data exist on the population of Palestine in the pre-Muslim period, either in absolute terms or in terms of shares of total population. Although many Jews were killed, expelled or sold off into slavery after the AD 66–70 and the 123–125 rebellions, the degree to which these transfers affected the Jewish dominance in Palestine is rarely addressed. What is certain is that Palestine did not lose its Jewish component. Goldblatt^[4] concludes that the Jews may have remained a majority into the 3rd century AD and even beyond. He notes that 'Jewish followers of Jesus' (Jewish Christians) would not have taken part in the rebellions. Moreover, non-Christian conversions from Judaism after the Bar Kochba revolt were not given much attention.^[39]

"Indeed, many must have reacted to the catastrophe with despair and total abandonment of Judaism. Apostates from Judaism (aside from converts to Christianity) received little notice in antiquity from either Jewish or non-Jewish writers, but ambitious individuals are known to have turned pagan before the war, and it stands to reason that many more did so after its disastrous conclusion. It is impossible to determine the number who joined the budding Christian movement and the number who disappeared into the polytheist majority."

Byzantine period

The highest population density Palestine reached in antiquity occurred between the 4th to 7th centuries during Byzantine period.^[34] The administrative reorganization of the region in 284–305 AD by the Eastern Romans produced three Palestinian provinces of "Greater Palestine" which lasted from the 4th to the early 7th centuries: Palaestina Prima, which included the historic regions of Philistia, Judea and Samaria with the capital in Caesarea Maritima; Palaestina Secunda, which included the Galilee, the Golan Heights, as well as parts of Perea (western Transjordan) and the Decapolis, with its capital being Scythopolis; and Palaestina Salutaris which included Idumaea, the Naqab desert, Arabia Petraea, parts of Sinai, and Transjordan south of the Dead Sea, with its capital in Petra.^[40][5]

Byzantine provinces of Palestine

During this period, the demographic landscape of Palestine underwent a significant transformation, leading to the emergence of Christians as the majority population. The shift was propelled by a combination of factors, primarily the conversion of local Jews, Samaritans and pagans, as well as immigration of Christian monks into the Holy land.^{[41][42][43][44]} Early conversion was most successful among the pagans, both sedentary and nomads on the fringes, from whom the early Christian population sprouted from.^{[42][45][44][36][46]} By the 5th century, many pagan temples in Palestine including those in Jerusalem, Bethlehem, Mamre, Tel Qadesh and Tel Dan, had been demolished, and churches were erected in their place.^{[41][45][47][48]}

In the rural sector, vast areas of Palestine, such as Galilee and Samaria, had Jewish and Samaritan majorities, and Christianity penetrated these areas far more gradually and at a slower pace, achieving real momentum only during the second half of the Byzantine period.^[36][49][34] Christianity's early influence in the Jewish, Samaritan or pagan rural areas was minor and came at a much later stage around the 6th century, when much of the community churches in Judea, western Galilee, the Naqab and other places were built.^[48] Striving to recover from the Bar Kokhba revolt, many Jews departed to thriving centers in diaspora while others converted to Christianity or stayed in the Holy Land, especially in Galilee, Judean mountains and the coastal plains.^[44] Samaritans, who numbered between 100,000–300,000 in the early Byzantine period, dealt a heavy blow following the Samaritan revolts and were subject to forced conversions to Christianity under Maurice (582–602) and Heraclius (610–641).^{[44][43][50][51][52][53]} Christianity had also penetrated into the Nabataean cities, towns and villages in southern Palestine, where a mixed Christian and pagan population lived, with elaborate churches built in Abdah, Mampsis and Subeita.^[54] By the 5th century, Palestine's population was predominantly made up of Aramaic-speaking Christian peasants with significant Jewish and Samaritan minorities,^[40][55][44] as well as Arabic-speaking Christians and Nabataeans, possibly reaching a population of 1.5 million at its peak.^[40]

Urban communities of this period were multicultural centers that were inhabited by pagans, Christians, Jews, and Samaritans.^[56] Ascalon had a Christian majority, but contained a small Jewish community. In Bayt Jibrin, the ethnic variety of the population is well reflected in the necropolis, which contained Jewish and Christian burials side by side.^[56] In the countryside, villages were usually homogeneous and inhabited by a single ethno-religious community. The Galilee was evenly divided between Jews in the eastern Galilee and a Christian majority in the western Galilee.^[56] A similar pattern is observed between Jewish and Christian villages in the southern Hebron hills, while the Samarian hillcountry and lowlands were predominantly Samaritan.^[56]

Most scholars consider that the proportion of Jews decreased during these centuries, a loss of dominance not related to any specific diaspora and at dates not agreed to by historians. For instance, by counting settlements, Avi-Yonah estimated that Jews comprised half the population of the Galilee at the end of the 3rd century, and a quarter in the other parts of the country, but had declined to 10–15% of the total by 614.^[4] On the other hand, by counting churches and synagogues, Tsafrir estimated the Jewish fraction at 25% in the Byzantine period.^[4] Stemberger, however, considers that Jews were the largest population group at the beginning of the 4th century, closely followed by the pagans.^[57] In contrast to Avi-Yonah, Schiffman estimated that Christians only became the majority of the country's population at the beginning of the 5th century,^[58] complemented by DellaPergola who estimates that by the 5th century Christians were in the majority and Jews were a minority.^[59]

Early Islamic Period

Prior to the Muslim conquest of Palestine (635–640), Palaestina Prima had a population of 700 thousand, of which around 100 thousand were Jews and 30 to 80 thousand were Samaritans,^[60] with the remainder being Chalcedonian and Miaphysite Christians.^[5][61][55] With the consolidation of Muslim rule, the pre-Islamic Christian Arab tribes living in Palestine since the Roman period converted to Islam. These mainly included Lakhm, Judham and Amilah,^[62][63] who were joined by Kinana, Khath'am, Khuza'a, and Azd Sarat émigré.^[64][65][66] In the countryside of Palestine, very few changes took place in the ethnic composition of settlements following the Muslim conquest, which displayed smooth population continuity.^[56] The language shift from Aramaic vernaculars spoken in Palestine to Arabic took place during this period, with an extended period of bilingualism.^[67][68][69] The process was accelerated by Arab tribes which formed a local elite in Palestine, namely Lakhm, Amilah and Judham.^[62][5] Palestinian Arabic formed as a mixture of Hejazi Arabic and ancient northern Arabic dialects spoken in the Levant before Islam, with a heavy Aramaic and Hebrew (Biblical and Mishnaic) substrate.^{[67][70][71][72][73][74]}

Early Islamic Syria (Bilad al-Sham) and its provinces under the Abbasids in the 9th century

The pace of conversion to Islam among the Christian, Jewish, and Samaritan communities in Palestine varied during the early period (638–1098),^[75] and opinions vary regarding the extent of Islamization during the early Islamic period.^[62] While some argue Palestine was already majority Muslim by the time of arrival of the First Crusade, others contend that Christians were still in the majority and the process of mass adoption of Islam took place only from the 13th century onwards, during the Mamluk period.^[62] According to Gideon Avni, archaeological surveys show that most Christian settlements and sites preserved their identity up to the crusader period, supplemented by the numerosity of churches and monasteries all over Palestine.^[56] The early Muslim population, on the other hand, was confined to the Umayyad palaces in the Jordan Valley and around the Sea of Galilee, the ribat fortresses along the coast and the farms of the Naqab desert.^[56] Thus, conversion to Islam only gained real momentum in Palestine after Saladin's conquest of Jerusalem in 1187 and the expulsion of Franks.^[56]

Urban centers continued to flourish after the Islamic conquest, but changes took place in the 9th and 10th centuries.^[54][56] According to Ellenblum, this was mainly linked to natural disasters, notably earthquakes and droughts that hit all of the Middle East in the late 10th and 11th centuries, leading to famines and population decline.^[76] According to Ehrlich, decline in urban centers likely caused local ecclesiastical administrations to weaken or disappear altogether, leaving Christians most susceptible to conversion.^[75][55] Among Jews, recorded evidence of mass conversion to Islam during this period mainly dates to the reign of al-Hakim bi-Amr Allah (996–1021).^[62] However, mass conversions were seemingly not commonplace in the 10th century–1265 period.^[62] In southern Judea, the introduction of Islam during the late early Islamic period is mainly evident in Jewish villages but not Christian ones, notably in the towns of Susya and Eshtemoa where the local synagogues were repurposed as mosques.^[56] In contrast, adoption of Islam seemingly commenced earlier in Samaria, around the 9th century onwards. By the time of Imad al-Din al-Isfahani much of rural Samaria was Muslim, which was further affirmed by 14th century Samaritan chronicler Abu'l-Fath.^[62] Following the 749 Galilee earthquake, Palestine also fostered movement from the devastated cities of the Galilee and Jordan Rift Valley which were not rebuilt, such as Hippos.^[75] Al-Maqdisi (c. 966–985) also describes an elaborate Muslim presence in Jund Filastin (Military district of Palestine),^[77][5][78] the Galilee and Transjordan in his time.^[77] The most notable exception was Nablus, whose population was equally divided between Samaritans and Muslims.^[77]

Crusader, Ayyubid and Mamluk periods

According to Gideon Avni and Ronnie Ellenblum, by the arrival of the First Crusade, the majority of Palestine was still non-Muslim and predominantly Christian, and Christian settlements, churches and monasteries seem to have preserved their identity well into the 12th century.^[56] Joshua Prawer contrasts this view, contending that much of Palestine was likely Muslim by the end of the tenth century already.^[79] According to Reuven Atimal and Ellenblum, conversion to Islam in Palestine appears to have halted and apparently even been reversed under the Kingdom of Jerusalem (1099–1291).^[80] With the advent of the Ayyubids (1187–1260) and then the consequent Mamluk takeover (1260–1517), it appears that the process of religious conversion to Islam was accelerated, eventually establishing a Muslim majority.^[80] By the start of the Ottoman period in 1516, it is commonly thought that the Muslim majority in the country was more-or-less like that of the mid-19th century.^[80] In Nablus, conversion to Islam among Samaritans continued well into the 19th century.^[81][82]

Early Ottoman period

During the first century of the Ottoman rule, i.e., 1550, Bernard Lewis in a study of Ottoman registers of the early Ottoman Rule of Palestine reports a population of around 300,000:^[83][84]

From the mass of detail in the registers, it is possible to extract something like a general picture of the economic life of the country in that period. Out of a total population of about 300,000 souls, between a fifth and a quarter lived in the six towns of Jerusalem, Gaza, Safed, Nablus, Ramle, and Hebron. The remainder consisted mainly of peasants (fellahin), living in villages of varying size, and engaged in agriculture. Their main food-crops were wheat and barley in that order, supplemented by leguminous pulses, olives, fruit, and vegetables. In and around most of the towns there was a considerable number of vineyards, orchards, and vegetable gardens.

According to Justin McCarthy, the population of Palestine throughout the 17th and 18th centuries (1601–1801) was likely not much smaller than when it in 1850 (~340,000), after which it started to increase.^[85]

Late Ottoman period

In the late nineteenth century, prior to the rise of Zionism, Jews are thought to have comprised between 2% and 5% of the population of Palestine, although the precise population is not known.^[86]

Jewish immigration had begun following the 1839 Tanzimat reforms; between 1840 and 1880, the Jewish population of Palestine rose from 9,000 to 23,000.^[87]

According to Alexander Scholch, Palestine in 1850 had about 350,000 inhabitants, 30% of whom lived in 13 towns; roughly 85% were Muslims, 11% were Christians and 4% Jews.^[88]

The Ottoman census of 1878 indicated the following demographics for the three districts that best approximated what later became Mandatory Palestine; that is, the Mutasarrifate of Jerusalem, the Nablus Sanjak, and the Acre Sanjak.^[86] In addition, some scholars estimate approximately 5,000-10,000 additional foreign-born Jews at this time:^[89]

According to Ottoman statistics studied by Justin McCarthy,^[90] the population of Palestine in the early 19th century was 350,000, in 1860 it was 411,000 and in 1900 about 600,000 of which 94% were Arabs.

The estimated 24,000 Jews in Palestine in 1882 represented just 0.3% of the world's Jewish population.^[91]

1914 Ottoman census listed the following population figures:^[92]

Per McCarthy's estimate, in 1914 Palestine had a population of 657,000 Muslim Arabs, 81,000 Christian Arabs, and 59,000 Jews.^[85] McCarthy estimates the non-Jewish population of Palestine at 452,789 in 1882, 737,389 in 1914, 725,507 in 1922, 880,746 in 1931 and 1,339,763 in 1946.^[93]

Based on the work of Roberto Bachi, Sergio Della Pergola estimated that Palestine's population in 1914 was 689,000, comprising 525,000 Muslims, 94,000 Jews, and 70,000 Christians.^[3]

According to another estimate, the Jewish population in 1914 was 85,000 and subsequently fell to 56,000 in 1916–1919^[94] as a result of World War I. During the war, the Ottoman authorities deported many Jews with foreign citizenship, while others left after they were presented with a choice of taking Ottoman citizenship or leaving Palestine. By December 1915 about 14% of the Jewish population had left, mainly for Egypt, where they awaited the war's end so they could return to Palestine.^[95]

According to Dr. Mutaz M. Qafisheh, the number of people who held Ottoman citizenship prior to the British Mandate in 1922 was just over 729,873, of which 7,143 were Jews.^[96] Qafisheh calculated this using population and immigration statistics from the 1946 Survey of Palestine, as well as the fact that 37,997 people acquired provisional Palestinian naturalization certificates in September 1922 for the purpose of voting in the legislative election,^[97] of which all but 100 were Jews.^[98]

British Mandate era

Survey of Palestine, showing the increase in population between 1922 and 1944

Survey of Palestine, showing immigration between 1922 and 1944

Late Arab and Muslim immigration to Palestine

The "Survey of Palestine" of the British Government in Palestine, 1946, commenting on misconceptions around illegal Arab immigration

British Mandate period, 1919–1948

Mandatory Palestine population by birthplace from the 1931 census of Palestine. According to the census 98% of Palestinian Muslims were born in Palestine, compared to 80% of Christians and 42% of Jews.

According to Roberto Bachi, head of the Israeli Institute of Statistics from 1949 onwards, between 1922 and 1945 there was a net Arab migration into Palestine of between 40,000 and 42,000, excluding 9,700 people who were incorporated after territorial adjustments were made to the borders in the 1920s. Based on these figures, and including those netted by the border alterations, Joseph Melzer calculates an upper boundary of 8.5% for Arab growth in the two decades, and interprets it to mean the local Palestinian community's growth was generated primarily by natural increase in birth rates, for both Muslims and Christians.^[108]

Population of Palestine, 1922–1945

Year	Muslims	Christians	Jews	Total
1922	589,177	73,024	83,790	757,182
1931	759,717	174,610	91,398	1,035,821
1945	1,061,270	135,550	553,600	1,764,520

According to a Jewish Agency survey, 77% of Palestinian population growth in Palestine between 1914 and 1938, during which the Palestinian population doubled, was due to natural increase, while 23% was due to immigration. Arab immigration was primarily from Lebanon, Syria, Transjordan, and Egypt (all countries that bordered Palestine).^[109]

The overall assessment of several British reports was that the increase in the Arab population was primarily due to natural increase.^[110][111] These included the Hope Simpson Enquiry (1930),^[112] the Passfield White Paper (1930),^[113] the Peel Commission report (1937),^[114] and the Survey of Palestine (1945).^[115] However, the Hope Simpson Enquiry did note that there was significant illegal immigration from the surrounding Arab territories,^[112] while the Peel Commission and Survey of Palestine claimed that immigration played only a minor role in the growth of the Arab population. The 1931 census of Palestine considered the question of illegal immigration since the previous census in 1922.^[116] It estimated that unrecorded immigration during that period may have amounted to 9,000 Jews and 4,000 Arabs.^[116] It also gave the proportion of persons living in Palestine in 1931 who were born outside Palestine: Muslims, 2%; Christians, 20%; Jews, 58%.^[116] The statistical information for Arab immigration (and expulsions when the clandestine migrants were caught), with a contrast to the figures for Jewish immigration over the same period of 1936–1939, is given by Henry Laurens in the following terms^[117]

Palestinian immigration, 1936–1939

Jews	Arabs
69,716	2,267

Expulsions of illegals, 1937–1938

Jews	Arabs (et al.).
125	1,704

According to Mark Tessler, at least some of the Arab population growth was the result of immigration, mostly from the Sinai, Lebanon, Syria, and Transjordan, stimulated by the relatively favorable economic conditions in Palestine, but he noted differing opinions among scholars over how substantial it was. He cited one study as putting the Arab population growth attributable to immigration between 1922 and 1931 at 7%, meaning that 4% of the Arab population in 1931 was foreign-born, while noting another estimate^[118] put the growth in the Arab population attributable to immigration at 38.7%, which would mean that 11.8% of the Arab population in 1931 was foreign-born. Tessler wrote that "Israeli as well as Palestinian scholars have disputed this assertion, however, concluding that it is at best a theory and in all probability a myth."^[119]

In a 1974 study, demographer Roberto Bachi estimated that about 900 Muslims per year were detected as illegal immigrants but not deported.^[120] He noted the impossibility of estimating illegal immigration that was undetected, or the fraction of those persons who eventually departed.^[120] He did note that there was an unexplained increase in the Muslim population between 1922 and 1931, and he did suggest, though qualifying it as a "mere guess", that this was due to a combination of unrecorded immigration (using the 1931 census report estimate) and undercounting in the 1922 census.^[120]

While noting the uncertainty of earlier data, Bachi also observed that the Muslim population growth in the 19th century appeared to be high by world standards:

"[B]etween 1800 and 1914, the Muslim population had a yearly average increase of an order of magnitude of roughly 6–7 per thousand. This can be compared to the very crude estimate of about 4 per thousand for the "less developed countries" of the world (in Asia, Africa, and Latin America) between 1800 and 1910. It is possible that some part of the growth of the Muslim population was due to immigration. However, it seems likely that the dominant determinant of this modest growth was the beginning of some natural increase."^[121]

According to Justin McCarthy, "... evidence for Muslim immigration into Palestine is minimal. Because no Ottoman records of that immigration have yet been discovered, one is thrown back on demographic analysis to evaluate Muslim migration."^[122] McCarthy argues that there is no significant Arab immigration into mandatory Palestine:

From analyses of rates of increase of the Muslim population of the three Palestinian sanjaks, one can say with certainty that Muslim immigration after the 1870s was small. Had there been a large group of Muslim immigrants their numbers would have caused an unusual increase in the population and this would have appeared in the calculated rate of increase from one registration list to another... Such an increase would have been easily noticed; it was not there.^[123]

The argument that Arab immigration somehow made up a large part of the Palestinian Arab population is thus statistically untenable. The vast majority of the Palestinian Arabs resident in 1947 were the sons and daughters of Arabs who were living in Palestine before modern Jewish immigration began. There is no reason to believe that they were not the sons and daughters of Arabs who had been in Palestine for many centuries.^[124]

McCarthy also concludes that there was no significant internal migration to Jewish areas attributable to better economic conditions:

Some areas of Palestine did experience greater population growth than others, but the explanation for this is simple. Radical economic change was occurring all over the Mediterranean Basin at the time. Improved transportation, greater mercantile activity, and greater industry had increased the chances for employment in cities, especially coastal cities... Differential population increase was occurring all over the Eastern Mediterranean, not just in Palestine... The increase in Muslim population had little or nothing to do with Jewish immigration. In fact the province that experienced the greatest Jewish population growth (by .035 annually), Jerusalem Sanjak, was the province with the lowest rate of growth of Muslim population (.009).^[125]

Fred M. Gottheil has questioned McCarthy's estimates of immigration. Gottheil says that McCarthy didn't give proper weight to the importance of economic incentives at the time, and that McCarthy cites Roberto Bachi's estimates as conclusive numbers, rather than lower bounds based on detected illegal immigration.^[118][126]

Gad Gilbar has also concluded that the prosperity of Palestine in the 45–50 years before World War I was a result of the modernization and growth of the economy owing to its integration with the world economy and especially with the economies of Europe. Although the reasons for growth were exogenous to Palestine the bearers were not waves of Jewish immigration, foreign intervention nor Ottoman reforms but "primarily local Arab Muslims and Christians."^[127] However, Gilbar did attribute the rapid growth of Jaffa and Haifa in the final three decades of Ottoman rule in part to migration, writing that "both attracted population from the rural and urban surroundings and immigrants from outside Palestine."^[128]

Yehoshua Porath believes that the notion of "large-scale immigration of Arabs from the neighboring countries" is a myth "proposed by Zionist writers". He writes:

As all the research by historian Fares Abdul Rahim and geographers of modern Palestine shows, the Arab population began to grow again in the middle of the nineteenth century. That growth resulted from a new factor: the demographic revolution. Until the 1850s there was no "natural" increase of the population, but this began to change when modern medical treatment was introduced and modern hospitals were established, both by the Ottoman authorities and by the foreign Christian missionaries. The number of births remained steady but infant mortality decreased. This was the main reason for Arab population growth. ... No one would doubt that some migrant workers came to Palestine from Syria and Trans-Jordan and remained there. But one has to add to this that there were migrations in the opposite direction as well. For example, a tradition developed in Hebron to go to study and work in Cairo, with the result that a permanent community of Hebronites had been living in Cairo since the fifteenth century. Trans-Jordan exported unskilled casual labor to Palestine; but before 1948 its civil service attracted a good many educated Palestinian Arabs who did not find work in Palestine itself. Demographically speaking, however, neither movement of population was significant in comparison to the decisive factor of natural increase.^[129]

Modern era

As of 2014, Israeli and Palestinian statistics for the overall numbers of Jews and Arabs in the area west of the Jordan, inclusive of Israel and the Palestinian territories, are similar and suggest a rough parity in the two populations. Palestinian statistics estimate 6.1 million Palestinians for that area, while Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics estimates 6.2 million Jews living in sovereign Israel. Gaza is estimated by the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) to have 1.7 million, and the West Bank 2.8 million Palestinians, while Israel proper has 1.7 million Arab citizens.^[130] According to Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics, as of May 2006, of Israel's 7 million people, 77% were Jews, 18.5% Arabs, and 4.3% "others".^[131] Among Jews, 68% were Sabras (Israeli-born), mostly second- or third-generation Israelis, and the rest are olim – 22% from Europe and the Americas, and 10% from Asia and Africa, including the Arab countries.^[132]

According to these Israeli and Palestinian estimates, the population in Israel and the Palestinian territories stands at from 6.1 to 6.2 million Palestinians and 6.1 million Jews.^[130] According to Sergio DellaPergola, if foreign workers and non-Jewish Russian immigrants in Israel are subtracted, Jews are already a minority in the land between the river and the sea.^[130] DellaPergola calculates that Palestinians as of January 2014 number 5.7 million as opposed to a "core Jewish population" of 6.1 million.^[130]

The Palestinian statistics are contested by some right-wing Israeli think-tanks and non-demographers such as Yoram Ettinger, who claim they overestimate Palestinian numbers by double-counting and counting Palestinians who live abroad. The double-counting argument is dismissed by both Arnon Soffer, Ian Lustick^[133] and DellaPergola, the latter dismissing Ettinger's calculations as 'delusional' or manipulated for ignoring the birth-rate differentials between the two populations (3 children per Jewish mother vs 3.4 for Palestinians generally, and 4.1 in the Gaza Strip). DellaPergola allows, however, for an inflation in the Palestinian statistics due to the counting of Palestinians who are abroad, a discrepancy of some 380,000 individuals.^[130]

See also

• History of Palestine
• Demographics of Israel
• Demographics of the Palestinian territories
• Muslim history in Palestine
• History of the Jewish community in Palestine
• History of Christianity in Palestine
• Genetic history of the Middle East
• Travelogues of Ottoman Palestine – for early travellers commenting on demographics
• Timeline of the Palestine region
• Time periods in the Palestine region

Notes

References

Bibliography

• Della Pergola, Sergio (2001). "Demography in Israel/Palestine: Trends, Prospects, Policy Implications" (PDF). International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, XXIV, General Population Conference, Salvador de Bahia. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2 December 2016. Retrieved 22 February 2015.
• Bachi, Roberto (1974). The Population of Israel (PDF). Institute of Contemporary Jewry, Hebrew University of Jerusalem. pp. 133, 390–394.
• McCarthy, Justin (1990). The Population of Palestine: Population History and Statistics of the Late Ottoman Period and the Mandate. Columbia University Press. ISBN 978-0-231-07110-9.
• Jewish National Council (1947). "First Memorandum: historical survey of the waves of the number and density of the population of ancient Palestine; Presented to the United Nations in 1947 by Vaad Leumi on Behalf of the Creation of a Jewish State" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 8 March 2012.
• Jewish National Council (1947). "Second Memorandum: historical survey of the Jewish population in Palestine from the fall of the Jewish state to the beginning of zionist pioneering; Presented to the United Nations in 1947 by Vaad Leumi on Behalf of the Creation of a Jewish State" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 8 March 2012.
• Jewish National Council (1947). "Third Memorandum: historical survey of the waves of Jewish immigration into Palestine from the arab conquest to the first zionist pioneers; Presented to the United Nations in 1947 by Vaad Leumi on Behalf of the Creation of a Jewish State" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 8 July 2011.
• Forbes, Andrew, and Henley, David, People of Palestine (Chiang Mai: Cognoscenti Books, 2012), ASIN: B0094TU8VY