Next Senedd election
due on or before 7 May 2026
All 60 seats to the Senedd
31 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader TBD Andrew RT Davies
Party Labour Conservative
Leader since TBD 24 January 2021
Leader's seat N/A South Wales Central
Current seats 30 16
Seats needed Increase1 Increase15
 
Leader Rhun ap Iorwerth Jane Dodds
Party Plaid Cymru Liberal Democrats
Leader since 16 June 2023 3 November 2017
Leader's seat Ynys Môn Mid and West Wales
Current seats 12 1
Seats needed Increase19 Increase30
Incumbent First Minister

Mark Drakeford
Labour


The next Senedd election is due to be held in or before May 2026[1] to elect 60 members to the Senedd (Welsh Parliament; Welsh: Senedd Cymru). It will be the seventh devolved general election since the Senedd (formerly the National Assembly for Wales) was established in 1999. It will also be the second election since the Senedd changed its name in May 2020.

A reform of the voting system is being discussed by the Senedd, with the Government of Wales seeking to implement it for the next election. Electoral reform for the Senedd is being suggested in multiple areas, including increasing the size of the Senedd from 60 to 96 MSs, changing the voting method to a closed list proportional representation system, reducing the number of constituencies to 16 with each electing six MSs, and enforcing gender quotas.

Retiring members

The following MSs have announced their intention not run for re-election:

MS Constituency/Region First elected Party Date announced
Mark Drakeford Cardiff West 2011 Labour 9 August 2023[2]

Election reform

Since its establishment in 1999, the Senedd (formerly the Welsh Assembly) has been elected through the additional member system, by which some of the seats (in Wales, 20 out of 60) are attributed regionally (in 5 regions of 4 seats) on the basis of a second vote for a party list, while the other seats are attributed through the customary plurality voting in single-member districts (40 out of 60, the same as those used for Westminster). AMS distributes the seats with the intent of compensating for disproportionalities caused by plurality voting.

Senedd reform

16 constituencies are proposed to be created from these 32 new parliamentary constituencies

A Special Committee was set up in October 2021 to look at Senedd reform.[3] In May 2022, a joint position statement was published by First Minister Mark Drakeford and Plaid Cymru Leader Adam Price, and sent to the Special Committee,[4] calling for a 96-Member Senedd, all elected through closed party list proportional representation (using the D'Hondt method) with mandatory "zipping" of male and female candidates in the list to ensure that for every party, half of the Members will be women (unlike the voluntary all-women shortlists used by the Labour Party). The elections would be organised in 16 six-member regions created by pairing up the 32 redrawn Westminster constituencies.[5]

The final report of the Special Committee was published on 30 May 2022 and recommends the system agreed to by the Labour and Plaid Cymru leaders.[6] Although the Expert Panel preferred the single transferable vote to any other method, the closed list PR system was favoured by the Committee because of its capacity to enforce gender quotas through mandatory zipping.[6] The report was discussed and approved in plenary session on 8 June 2022.[7]

In February 2023, plans for additional reform included:

  • Candidates must be resident in Wales
  • A defection of an MS to another party is not permitted. An MS would instead have to become an independent.
  • Independent candidates must disclose any party membership[8]

Opinion polling

Constituency vote

LOESS curve of the polling for the next Senedd Election Constituency Votes.
Pollster Client Dates
conducted		 Sample
size		 Lab Con Plaid Cymru Lib Dems AWA Green Reform Other Lead
Redfield & Wilton N/A 12–13 Nov 2023 1,100 40% 23% 18% 3% 3% 4% 7% 1% 17
Redfield & Wilton N/A 14–15 Oct 2023 959 37% 27% 18% 4% 5% 3% 6% - 10
Redfield & Wilton N/A 16–17 Sep 2023 1,172 39% 27% 18% 5% 1% 6% 3% 1% 12
YouGov Barn Cymru 1–6 Sep 2023 1,051 41% 18% 19% 6% – 4% 8% 7% 22
Redfield & Wilton N/A 13–14 Aug 2023 1,068 37% 21% 20% 6% – 3% 9% 4% 16
Redfield & Wilton N/A 14–16 Jul 2023 1,050 42% 22% 16% 6% – 3% 7% 3% 20
Redfield & Wilton N/A 17–18 Jun 2023 1,000 36% 22% 19% 7% – 3% 10% 3% 14
YouGov Barn Cymru 12–17 May 2023 1,064 40% 18% 17% 7% – 5% 8% 4% 22
Redfield & Wilton N/A 14–15 May 2023 1,058 38% 23% 20% 7% – 3% 7% 2% 15
Redfield & Wilton N/A 15–17 Apr 2023 1,251 41% 21% 20% 5% – 4% 8% 2% 20
YouGov Barn Cymru 3–7 Feb 2023 1,081 43% 18% 20% 4% – 4% 9% 1% 23
YouGov Barn Cymru 25 Nov – 1 Dec 2022 1,042 44% 17% 20% 6% – 3% 7% 4% 24
YouGov Barn Cymru 20–22 Sep 2022 1,014 40% 20% 22% 6% – 3% 5% 4% 18
YouGov Barn Cymru 12–16 Jun 2022 1,020 37% 24% 21% 6% – 5% 5% 3% 13
YouGov Barn Cymru 25 Feb – 1 Mar 2022 1,086 38% 24% 21% 6% – 3% 5% 4% 14
YouGov ITV Wales 13–16 Dec 2021 1,009 40% 23% 17% 4% – 5% 7% 4% 17
YouGov ITV Wales 13–16 Sep 2021 1,057 37% 27% 19% 5% – 4% 5% 5% 10
2021 Senedd election[9] 6 May 2021 – 39.9% 26.1% 20.3% 4.9% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 4.0% 13.8

Regional vote

LOESS curve of the polling for the next Senedd Election Regional List Votes.
Pollster Client Dates
conducted		 Sample
size		 Lab Con Plaid Cymru Green Lib Dems AWA UKIP Reform Others Lead
Redfield & Wilton N/A 12–13 Nov 2023 1,100 32% 21% 18% 9% 6% 5% – 7% 1% 11
Redfield & Wilton N/A 14–15 Oct 2023 959 31% 21% 24% 4% 5% 7% – 8% – 10
Redfield & Wilton N/A 16–17 Sep 2023 1,172 35% 21% 18% 6% 12% 2% – 5% 1% 14
YouGov Barn Cymru 1–6 Sep 2023 1,051 34% 16% 20% 6% 6% 9% 1% 6% 2% 14
Redfield & Wilton N/A 13–14 Aug 2023 1,068 31% 19% 22% 6% 10% – – 10% 3% 9
Redfield & Wilton N/A 14–16 Jul 2023 1,050 33% 20% 19% 6% 10% – – 6% 4% 13
Redfield & Wilton N/A 17–18 Jun 2023 1,000 30% 22% 20% 6% 9% – – 8% 4% 8
YouGov Barn Cymru 12–17 May 2023 1,064 36% 16% 18% 7% 7% 5% 1% 7% 1% 18
Redfield & Wilton N/A 14–15 May 2023 1,058 30% 21% 24% 4% 10% – – 8% 4% 6
Redfield & Wilton N/A 15–17 Apr 2023 1,251 32% 22% 23% 7% 8% – – 7% 2% 9
YouGov Barn Cymru 3–7 Feb 2023 1,081 39% 18% 20% 5% 5% 6% 0% 6% 1% 19
YouGov Barn Cymru 25 Nov – 1 Dec 2022 1,042 38% 16% 23% 5% 4% 8% 2% 4%
2%
Gwlad on 1%
Other on 1%
 15
YouGov Barn Cymru 20–22 Sep 2022 1,014 37% 18% 21% 5% 5% 7% 2% 4% 1% 16
YouGov Barn Cymru 12–16 Jun 2022 1,020 31% 21% 24% 6% 5% 6% 2% 6%
2%
Gwlad on 1%
Other on 1%
 7
YouGov Barn Cymru 25 Feb – 1 Mar 2022 1,086 34% 23% 20% 4% 6% 6% 1% 3%
2%
Gwlad on 1%
Other on 1%
 11
YouGov ITV Wales 13–16 Dec 2021 1,009 35% 22% 19% 7% 3% 6% 2% 5% 1% 13
YouGov ITV Wales 13–16 Sep 2021 1,057 33% 26% 19% 5% 4% 6% 4% 2% 1% 7
2021 Senedd election[9] 6 May 2021 – 36.2% 25.1% 20.7% 4.4% 4.3% 3.7% 1.6% 1.1% 2.9% 11.1

See also

References

  1. ↑ Owens, Cathy (8 September 2021). "What to expect from the next five years in Welsh politics". WalesOnline. Retrieved 29 September 2021.
  2. ↑ "Mark Drakeford to quit Senedd at next election". BBC News. 9 August 2023. Retrieved 9 August 2023.
  3. ↑ "Special Purpose Committee on Senedd Reform". senedd.wales. 6 October 2021.
  4. ↑ "Press release: A way forward for Senedd reform". Government of Wales. 10 May 2022. Retrieved 19 May 2022.
  5. ↑ "Welsh Conservative MS resigns from Senedd reform group after Labour and Plaid's 'completely out of order stunt'". Welsh Conservatives. 10 May 2022. Retrieved 14 June 2022.
  6. 1 2 "Reforming our Senedd: A stronger voice for the people of Wales" (PDF). Government of Wales. 30 May 2022. Retrieved 14 June 2022.
  7. ↑ "Vote Outcomes Plenary 08/06/2022". Welsh Parliament. 8 June 2022. Retrieved 14 June 2022.
  8. ↑ "Senedd candidates must live in Wales under plans". BBC News. 16 February 2023. Retrieved 17 February 2023.
  9. 1 2 Davies, Owain; Holzinger, Owen; McCarthy, Joanne; Jones, Helen (2021). Senedd Election 2021: Research Briefing (PDF). Senedd Research. p. 16.
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