2020 United States Senate election in Arkansas
November 3, 2020 (2020-11-03)
 
Nominee Tom Cotton Ricky Dale Harrington Jr.
Party Republican Libertarian
Popular vote 793,871 399,390
Percentage 66.53% 33.47%
Cotton:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Harrington:      50–60%      60-70%      70-80%      80-90%      >90%
Tie:      50%
U.S. senator before election

Tom Cotton
Republican

 Elected U.S. Senator

Tom Cotton
Republican

The 2020 United States Senate election in Arkansas was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Arkansas, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Republican senator Tom Cotton won reelection to a second term, defeating Libertarian challenger Ricky Dale Harrington Jr. Though Cotton outperformed President Donald Trump in the concurrent presidential election by 4.1%, the election saw an undervote of 26,000 compared to the presidential election. Harrington's 33.5% finish was the best ever for a Libertarian candidate in a U.S. Senate election by vote percentage, surpassing Joe Miller's vote share in the 2016 Alaska race,[1][2] and also by total number of votes, surpassing Michael Cloud's total in the 2002 Massachusetts race. It was also the highest vote percentage ever won by a Libertarian candidate in any U.S. statewide race, surpassing John Monds's vote share in the 2008 Georgia Public Service Commission race. Per exit polls, this largely appears to be due to many Democrats deciding to pick Harrington as there was no Democratic candidate on the ballot (82% of Democratic voters backed Harrington).[3] Harrington won three counties, all of which were also won by Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden. This election marks the first time since 2004 where the winner of the United States Senate election in Arkansas was of a different party from the winner of the concurrent presidential election and the first time since 1996 where the winner of the United States Senate election in Arkansas for the Class 2 United States Senate seat was of a different party from the winner of the concurrent presidential election.

Republican nominee

In 2018, Tom Cotton, the incumbent U.S. senator, announced that he would run for re-election in 2020.[4] Without any opposing candidates, there was not a contested primary, so Cotton automatically won the Republican nomination.[5]

Libertarian nominee

Ricky Dale Harrington Jr., Christian missionary and prison chaplain, announced that he would seek the Libertarian nomination.[6] He subsequently became the Libertarian nominee.[7]

Withdrawn candidates

Democratic Party

Josh Mahony was the only candidate to file for the Democratic primary; however, he withdrew his candidacy due to a "family health concern" on November 12, 2019.[8] Because Mahony dropped out after the filing deadline, the Democratic Party of Arkansas could only nominate a replacement if the candidate died, became seriously ill, left the state, or filed for another office. As a result, the Democratic Party of Arkansas was not able to fill the vacancy.[9][10] A memo from the Cotton campaign to supporters detailed a strategy of sitting on opposition research regarding Mahony's employment history until after the filing deadline had passed.[11]

Withdrawn

Declined

Independents

Withdrawn

  • Dan Whitfield, progressive activist. On June 25, 2020, Whitfield's petition to run was denied for failing to gain enough signatures, an effort that was complicated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Whitfield filed an appeal with the United States Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit in an attempt to overturn this ruling. He officially suspended his campaign on October 1.[13]

General election

Harrington speaking at an event focused on criminal justice reform in Springdale, October 25, 2020

In public comments, Harrington spoke about excessive partisanship in the election process itself and in Senate operations, such as the contentious nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court.[14] Cotton declined to attend a debate hosted by Arkansas PBS, leaving Harrington as the sole participant. Harrington spent the debate responding to questions put to him by a panel of journalists.[15][16]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[17] Safe R October 29, 2020
Inside Elections[18] Safe R October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] Safe R November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[20] Safe R October 30, 2020
Politico[21] Safe R November 2, 2020
RCP[22] Safe R October 23, 2020
DDHQ[23] Safe R November 3, 2020
538[24] Safe R November 2, 2020
Economist[25] Safe R November 2, 2020

Endorsements

Ricky Dale Harrington Jr. (L)
U.S. Federal Officials
Other individuals

Polling

Graphical summary

Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Tom
Cotton (R)		 Ricky Dale
Harrington Jr. (L)		 Other Undecided
University of Arkansas October 9–21, 2020 591 (LV) ± 3.9% 75% 20% 5% –
Hendrix College/Talk Business & Politics October 11–13, 2020 647 (LV) ± 4.9% 63% 28% – 10%
American Research Group (L)[upper-alpha 1] October 7–9, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 49% 38% – 13%

Results

United States Senate election in Arkansas, 2020[29]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Tom Cotton (incumbent) 793,871 66.53% +10.03%
Libertarian Ricky Dale Harrington Jr. 399,390 33.47% +31.44%
Total votes 1,193,261 100.00% N/A
Republican hold
By county
County[30] Tom Cotton
Republican		 Ricky Harrington Jr.
Libertarian		 Margin Total
votes
# % # % # %
Arkansas 4,567 75.26 1,501 24.74 3,066 50.53 6,068
Ashley 5,801 74.85 1,949 25.15 3,852 49.70 7,750
Baxter 16,094 78.95 4,292 21.05 11,802 57.89 20,386
Benton 76,068 64.75 41,417 35.25 34,651 29.49 117,485
Boone 13,753 81.83 3,054 18.17 10,699 63.66 16,807
Bradley 2,485 69.74 1,078 30.26 1,407 39.49 3,563
Calhoun 1,714 80.02 428 19.98 1,286 60.04 2,142
Carroll 7,676 66.22 3,916 33.78 3,760 32.44 11,592
Chicot 1,945 53.23 1,709 46.77 236 6.46 3,654
Clark 5,089 63.08 2,978 36.92 2,111 26.17 8,067
Clay 4,196 82.29 903 17.71 3,293 64.58 5,099
Cleburne 10,602 84.36 1,966 15.64 8,636 68.71 12,568
Cleveland 2,987 83.98 570 16.02 2,417 67.95 3,557
Columbia 5,776 71.39 2,315 28.61 3,461 42.78 8,091
Conway 5,936 69.49 2,606 30.51 3,330 38.98 8,542
Craighead 26,342 69.45 11,588 30.55 14,754 38.90 37,930
Crawford 18,825 78.30 5,216 21.70 13,609 56.61 24,041
Crittenden 7,969 52.74 7,141 47.26 828 5.48 15,110
Cross 5,085 75.21 1,676 24.79 3,409 50.42 6,761
Dallas 1,730 68.11 810 31.89 920 36.22 2,540
Desha 2,299 57.43 1,704 42.57 595 14.86 4,003
Drew 4,567 68.05 2,144 31.95 2,423 36.10 6,711
Faulkner 35,278 65.98 18,192 34.02 17,086 31.95 53,470
Franklin 5,645 79.97 1,414 20.03 4,231 59.94 7,059
Fulton 4,030 80.89 952 19.11 3,078 61.78 4,982
Garland 30,420 69.52 13,336 30.48 17,084 39.04 43,756
Grant 6,883 84.34 1,278 15.66 5,605 68.68 8,161
Greene 12,820 81.03 3,002 18.97 9,818 62.05 15,822
Hempstead 4,742 71.63 1,878 28.37 2,864 43.26 6,620
Hot Spring 9,388 75.83 2,993 24.17 6,395 51.65 12,381
Howard 3,549 75.57 1,147 24.43 2,402 51.15 4,696
Independence 11,530 80.92 2,719 19.08 8,811 61.84 14,249
Izard 4,724 82.91 974 17.09 3,750 65.81 5,698
Jackson 3,732 75.95 1,182 24.05 2,550 51.89 4,914
Jefferson 11,295 46.84 12,821 53.16 -1,526 -6.33 24,116
Johnson 7,044 75.01 2,347 24.99 4,697 50.02 9,391
Lafayette 1,836 72.17 708 27.83 1,128 44.35 2,544
Lawrence 4,768 82.62 1,003 17.38 3,765 65.24 5,771
Lee 1,410 55.40 1,135 44.60 275 10.80 2,545
Lincoln 2,907 76.50 893 23.50 2,014 53.00 3,800
Little River 3,885 77.36 1,137 22.64 2,748 54.72 5,022
Logan 6,524 79.78 1,654 20.22 4,870 59.55 8,178
Lonoke 23,504 77.34 6,887 22.66 16,617 54.68 30,391
Madison 5,627 78.06 1,582 21.94 4,045 56.11 7,209
Marion 5,928 80.43 1,442 19.57 4,486 60.87 7,370
Miller 12,251 76.43 3,778 23.57 8,473 52.86 16,029
Mississippi 7,792 66.66 3,898 33.34 3,894 33.31 11,690
Monroe 1,717 63.06 1,006 36.94 711 26.11 2,723
Montgomery 3,116 81.59 703 18.41 2,413 63.18 3,819
Nevada 2,292 71.07 933 28.93 1,359 42.14 3,225
Newton 3,155 81.25 728 18.75 2,427 62.50 3,883
Ouachita 5,787 62.12 3,529 37.88 2,258 24.24 9,316
Perry 3,553 77.80 1,014 22.20 2,539 55.59 4,567
Phillips 2,785 49.16 2,880 50.84 -95 -1.68 5,665
Pike 3,594 85.47 611 14.53 2,983 70.94 4,205
Poinsett 6,092 82.15 1,324 17.85 4,768 64.29 7,416
Polk 7,083 84.25 1,324 15.75 5,759 68.50 8,407
Pope 18,411 76.24 5,739 23.76 12,672 52.47 24,150
Prairie 2,849 84.09 539 15.91 2,310 68.18 3,388
Pulaski 71,966 43.42 93,784 56.58 -21,818 -13.16 165,750
Randolph 5,487 82.07 1,199 17.93 4,288 64.13 6,686
Saline 41,443 73.33 15,073 26.67 26,370 46.66 56,516
Scott 3,017 85.59 508 14.41 2,509 71.18 3,525
Searcy 3,337 84.80 598 15.20 2,739 69.61 3,935
Sebastian 31,997 68.37 14,804 31.63 17,193 36.74 46,801
Sevier 4,105 80.35 1,004 19.65 3,101 60.70 5,109
Sharp 6,092 82.19 1,320 17.81 4,772 64.38 7,412
St. Francis 3,606 55.66 2,873 44.34 733 11.31 6,479
Stone 4,637 79.32 1,209 20.68 3,428 58.64 5,846
Union 11,292 70.46 4,733 29.54 6,559 40.93 16,025
Van Buren 6,135 80.15 1,519 19.85 4,616 60.31 7,654
Washington 49,361 53.33 43,205 46.67 6,156 6.65 92,566
White 24,887 80.91 5,872 19.09 19,015 61.82 30,759
Woodruff 1,694 70.03 725 29.97 969 40.06 2,419
Yell 5,363 80.24 1,321 19.76 4,042 60.47 6,684
Totals 793,871 66.53 399,390 33.47 394,481 33.06 1,193,261

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Libertarian

Notes

  1. ↑ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
Partisan clients
  1. ↑ Poll sponsored by Harrington's campaign.

See also

References

  1. ↑ "Cotton win good news, say parties of two rivals". Arkansas Online. November 7, 2020. Retrieved February 25, 2021.
  2. ↑ "Joe Miller Shatters Libertarian US Senate Record While 8 Others Set New State Party Marks". Smart Politics. November 20, 2016. Retrieved February 25, 2021.
  3. ↑ Voter Analysis, Fox News. "Fox News Voter Analysis Survey, Arkansas Senate Race". Fox News. Retrieved May 2, 2021.
  4. ↑ "Sen. Cotton says he's running for reelection in 2020". Associated Press News. August 8, 2018.
  5. ↑ Giroux, Greg (March 3, 2020). "How to Watch Super Tuesday Congressional Primary Results". Bloomberg Government. Retrieved January 20, 2022.
  6. ↑ "Harrington to challenge Cotton in 2020 election". Pine Bluff Commercial. October 7, 2019. Archived from the original on November 13, 2019. Retrieved November 13, 2019.
  7. ↑ Brantley, Max (July 28, 2020). "There is an alternative to Tom Cotton". Arkansas Times. Retrieved January 20, 2022.
  8. 1 2 "Two hours after filing period ends, Democrat Josh Mahony drops out of U.S. Senate race". Arkansas Democrat Gazette. November 12, 2019. Retrieved November 4, 2020.
  9. ↑ Brock, Roby (November 13, 2019). "Arkansas law suggests Mahony exit likely leaves Cotton without Democratic opponent". Retrieved November 14, 2019.
  10. ↑ "There won't be an Arkansas Democrat challenging Sen. Cotton in 2020 election". thv11.com. November 25, 2019.
  11. ↑ Lockwood, Frank E. (November 17, 2019). "Memo shows strategy for attack on Cotton opponent". Arkansas Democrat-Gazette. Little Rock: Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, Inc. Retrieved December 15, 2019.
  12. ↑ Lockwood, Frank E. (April 29, 2019). "Retired general Wesley Clark rules out '20 run". ArkansasOnline. Retrieved April 29, 2019.
  13. ↑ Gilker, Kathryn (October 1, 2020). "Dan Whitfield suspends US senate race after not getting on the ballot". KFSM-TV 5NEWS. Retrieved October 13, 2020.
  14. ↑ "Libertarian Senate candidate Ricky Harrington calls for end to hyper-partisanship". Talk Business & Politics. September 27, 2020. Retrieved October 14, 2020.
  15. ↑ Boehm, Eric (October 12, 2020). "Tom Cotton won't debate his Libertarian challenger. The event will happen anyway". Reason Foundation. Retrieved October 14, 2020.
  16. ↑ Roberts, Adam (October 14, 2020). "Harrington, challenging Cotton, appears solo in Arkansas PBS debate". 40/29 News. Retrieved October 15, 2020.
  17. ↑ "2020 Senate Race Ratings for October 29, 2020". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
  18. ↑ "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
  19. ↑ "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved March 12, 2021.
  20. ↑ "2020 Senate Race Ratings". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
  21. ↑ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  22. ↑ "Battle for the Senate 2020". RCP. October 23, 2020.
  23. ↑ "2020 Senate Elections Model". Decision Desk HQ. September 2, 2020. Retrieved September 2, 2020.
  24. ↑ Silver, Nate (October 11, 2020). "Forecasting the race for the Senate". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 11, 2020.
  25. ↑ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. November 2, 2020. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
  26. ↑ Brantley, Max (October 17, 2020). "Congressman endorses Ricky Harrington for U.S. Senate".
  27. ↑ @RealSpikeCohen (October 11, 2020). "Donate to Ricky Harrington for his race against Tom Cotton. This is an absolutely winnable race for Arkansas Senate!" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  28. ↑ @Jorgensen4POTUS (October 14, 2020). "The Arkansas Senate debate is live now...Tom Cotton refused to participate, there is no Democrat running, and Libertarian candidate Ricky Dale Harrington @RickyForSenate has the stage to himself. #Election2020" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  29. ↑ "2020 General Election and Nonpartisan Judicial Runoff". Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved November 25, 2020.
  30. ↑ "2020 General Election and Nonpartisan Judicial Runoff". Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved September 8, 2021.
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