Ethiopian invasion of Somalia
Part of the Ethiopian–Somali conflict and the Somali Civil War

An Ethiopian T-55 tank advances on Mogadishu
Date20 December 2006 – 30 January 2009
(2 years, 1 month, 1 week and 3 days)
Location
Southern and Central Somalia
Status

Inconclusive, see Consequences

Belligerents
Invasion:
Islamic Courts Union
Supported by:
ONLF[2][3]
Eritrea[4]

Insurgency:

 Invasion:

Insurgency:

Commanders and leaders
Strength
  • ICU militants: 8,000
  • Alleged foreign militants: 3,000–4,000[13][14][15]
  • Ethiopia: 40,000–50,000 soldiers[16][17][18]
  • Somalia: 10,000 soldiers[19]
  • AMISOM: 5,250 soldiers
Casualties and losses
 Ethiopia:
Somalia (TFG):
  • Unknown
  • 15,000 deserted[24]

AMISOM:

  • Uganda:
    • 7 killed
  • Kenya:
    • 6 killed
  • Burundi:
    • 2 killed
Civilian casualties:
(see § Casualties)

The Ethiopian occupation of Somalia, also called the Ethiopian invasion of Somalia[28] or the Ethiopian intervention in the Somali Civil War,[29] was an armed conflict in Somalia that lasted from 2006 to 2009. It began when military forces from Ethiopia, supported by the United States, invaded Somalia to depose the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) and install the Transitional Federal Government (TFG). The conflict continued after the invasion when an anti-Ethiopian insurgency emerged and rapidly escalated. During 2007 and 2008, the insurgency recaptured the majority of territory lost by the ICU. At the start of 2009 Ethiopian troops withdrew from Somalia, but became re-involved several years later to counter the growing strength of Al-Shabaab.

Ethiopian military involvement began in response to the rising power of the ICU, which had gained control of the majority of southern Somalia by late 2006. In order to reinforce the weak TFG, troops from the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) began deploying into Somalia during June 2006. By December of the same year, the combined ENDF/TFG coalition, alongside a covert US military contingent, were at war with the ICU. Soon after, the ICU's organizational structure collapsed, and ENDF/TFG forces entered Mogadishu during the last days of 2006. In early 2007 an insurgency began, centred on a loose coalition of ICU remnants, volunteers, clan militias, and additional Islamist factions, of which Al-Shabaab eventually assumed a pivotal role. In the same period, the African Union (AU) established the AMISOM peacekeeping operation, sending thousands of troops to Somalia to bolster the besieged TFG and ENDF. The Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS), the successor to the ICU, further incited Islamist rebels and participated in the fighting.

Over the subsequent two years, the ENDF, the TFG and AMISOM, became entrenched in a protracted struggle against an escalating insurgency, leading to the displacement of nearly one million inhabitants from Mogadishu.[30][31] The city became the scene of several devastating major battles in this period, such as March–April 2007, November 2007 and April 2008. Outside of the capital, the insurgency went on the offensive and began recovering the territory the ICU had lost during late 2007 and 2008. Though violence significantly escalated in 2007, the most violent year of the occupation was 2008. During 2008, Al-Shabaab started taking control of significant tracts of southern Somalia and began governing territory for the first time.[32] Over the course of the conflict the TFG's fragility remained unchanged from its state prior to the ICU's disintegration. By the end of the year, the ARS had been assimilated into the TFG's parliament in an effort to halt the growing insurgency and create a representative government.[33][28]

The Ethiopian occupation largely failed.[34] By December 2008, the TFG only possessed territorial control over parts of Mogadishu and the city of Baidoa.[35] That same month President Abdullahi Yusuf resigned after stating that he had lost control of Somalia to the insurgency.[36] At the start of 2009, former head of the ICU Sharif Sheikh Ahmed was elected president. That same month, claiming to have eradicated the 'Islamist threat' and declaring victory, Meles Zenawi's government entirely withdrew Ethiopian forces from Mogadishu, ending the two year occupation of the city and from the majority of Somalia.[28] By the end of the Ethiopian occupation, effectively all territory lost by the Islamic Courts Union had been recovered by Islamist insurgents,[37] including much of Mogadishu.[38][28]

Background

Historic background

Boundary disputes between Somalia and Ethiopia over the Ogaden region date to the 1948 settlement when the land was granted to Ethiopia. Somali disgruntlement with this decision culminated with the invasion of the Ogaden at the start of 1977–1978 War in hopes of incorporating the region into a Greater Somalia. This plan would have reunited the Somali people of the Ethiopian-controlled Ogaden with those living in the Somalia. These ethnic and political tensions have caused several cross-border clashes following the independence of Somalia in 1960:

The rise of the Islamic Courts Union raised Ethiopian concerns of a renewed drive for a Greater Somalia, as a strong Somali state not dependent on Addis Ababa was perceived as a security threat.[42][43] The Ethiopian government heavily backed Abdullahi Yusuf's presidency and the formation of the Transitional Federal Government in 2004 on the grounds that Yusuf would give up Somalia's long standing claim to the region.[44]

Information warfare, disinformation and propaganda

Even before the beginning of the war, there have been significant assertions and accusations of the use of disinformation and propaganda tactics by various parties to shape the causes and course of the conflict. This includes assertions of falsification of the presence or number of forces involved, exaggeration or minimization of the casualties inflicted or taken, influence or control of media outlets (or shutting them down), and other informational means and media to sway popular support and international opinion.

Eastern African countries and international observers had feared the Ethiopian offensive may lead to a regional war, involving Eritrea, which has a complex relationship with Ethiopia and whom Ethiopia claimed to have been a supporter of the ICU.[45] The Eritrean government repeatedly denied any involvement despite Ethiopian claims to the contrary.[46][47][48] No evidence exists to support claims of Eritrean troops in Somalia,[49] and no Eritrean presence was discovered in the country during the war.[50] Ethiopia also denied deploying troops in Somalia despite being widely reported.[51] The TFG also denied the involvement of Ethiopian forces.[52]

Prelude to war

In 2007, British television station Channel 4 acquired a leaked document detailing a confidential meeting between senior American and Ethiopian officials in Addis Ababa six months prior to the December invasion. Participants deliberated on various scenarios, with the 'worst case scenario' being the potential takeover of Somalia by the Islamic Courts Union. The documents revealed that the US found the prospect unacceptable and would back Ethiopia in the event of an ICU takeover. Journalist Jon Snow reported that during the meeting ‘the blueprint for a very American supported Ethiopian invasion of Somalia was hatched’. No Somali officials were involved in the discussions.[50]

On 16 June 2006, Shabeelle Media Network reported that sources in Ethiopia's Somali Region had witnessed a massing of ENDF 'heavy armoured vehicles' along many of the towns on the Ethiopian–Somali border.[53]

June–August 2006 incursions

On 17 June, 2006, Ethiopian troops moved into Somali territory. Local Somali officials and residents in Gedo region reported about 50 Ethiopian armored vehicles had passed through the border town of Dolow and pushed 50km inland near the town of Luuq.[54][55] The fragile TFG, which was only capable of controlling small parcels of land, made the widely unpopular decision to invite Ethiopia to intervene in support of it.[35] ICU head Sheik Sharif Ahmed claimed that 300 Ethiopian troops had entered the country through the border town of Dolow in Gedo region and that Ethiopian forces had also been probing Somali border towns. He went on to threaten to fight Ethiopian troops if they continued intervening and further stated, “We want the whole world to know what's going on. The United States is encouraging Ethiopia to take over the area. Ethiopia has crossed our borders and are heading for us.”[56][55] The Ethiopian government denied the deployment of its forces in Somalia and countered that the ICU was marching towards its borders.[51][57][54] The TFG vehemently denied accusations of an Ethiopian military deployment and claimed that the ICU was fabricating a pretext to assault its capital in Baidoa. Additionally, the TFG arrested several reporters from Shabelle Media Network and imposed restrictions on their radio station after they reported on the ENDF incursion.[58][59] On 19 June 2006 the ICU called for the international community to pressure Ethiopian forces to withdraw from Somalia.[60]

Another significant deployment of Ethiopian troops occurred on July 20, 2006, when they moved into Somalia. Local witnesses reported 20 to 25 armored vehicles crossing the border. The Ethiopian government once again denied the presence of any troops inside Somalia. Reuters estimated that roughly 5,000 ENDF troops had built up inside Somalia by this point.[61] Two days later, another contingent of Ethiopian troops crossed into Somalia, leading to the collapse of the Khartoum peace talks between the ICU and TFG. Approximately 200 ENDF troops seized Wajid, taking control of the airport. Following the deployment at Wajid, the ICU walked out of talks with the TFG. Abdirahman Janaqow, the deputy leader of the ICU executive council, stated soon after that, "The Somali government has violated the accord and allowed Ethiopian troops to enter Somali soil." The TFG claimed that no Ethiopians were in Somalia and that only their troops were in Wajid. Soon after, residents reported two military helicopters landing at the town's airstrip.[62] BBC News confirmed reports of Ethiopian troops in Wajid during interviews with local residents and aid workers. Following the towns seizure, the ICU pledged to wage a holy war to drive out ENDF forces in Somalia.[63]

By August 2006 the TFG was mired in an severe internal crisis and at risk of collapse.[64] Later that month Eritrea accused Ethiopia of plotting a US supported invasion with the aim of destroying the "realization of a unified Somalia”[43]

September–November 2006 incursions and clashes

By September, at least 7,000 Ethiopian troops were in Somalia and had begun arming warlords defeated by the ICU.[65] The first clash between ICU and Ethiopian National Defence Forces occurred on 9 October 2006. TFG forces, backed by the Ethiopian troops, attacked the ICU positions at the town of Burhakaba, forcing the courts to retreat.[66] AFP reported that residents in Baidoa had witnessed a large column of at least 72 armed ENDF vehicles and troops transports depart from city before the incident.[67] Meles Zenawis government denied that ENDF forces were in Somalia, or that they had participated in the incident, but local residents in Burhakaba confirmed the presence of large numbers of ENDF in the town. The Economist reported that the Ethiopian military incursion had set off a fierce reaction even among the most moderate of the ICU, and a recruitment mobilization began in order to raise a force to take back Burhakaba.[68] The ICU claimed that the ENDF had also sent another large deployment across the Somali border. Following the battle, Sharif Sheikh Ahmed announced "This is clear aggression...Our forces will face them soon if they do not retreat from Somali territories" and declared Jihad against Ethiopian military forces.[69]

In November 2006, the situation significantly escalated with the extensive mobilization and strategic positioning of ENDF, TFG and ICU forces in southern Somalia. Local residents reported large numbers of ICU forces deploying to Burhakaba. The distance between the opposing forces on the front line was now less than 20 km apart. On 26 and 28 November the courts claimed to have ambushed two ENDF convoys near Baidoa.[70] On 29 November, the courts claimed Ethiopian forces had shelled Bandiradley. The next day ICU forces ambushed an ENDF convoy outside of Baidoa.[71] That month, the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) declared that it would not allow the Ogaden region to be used as a launching pad to invade Somalia, and warned that it would resist any attempts to do so.[72]

December 2006

The most significant event to immediately prelude the war was the passing of United Nations Security Council 1725 on 6 December 2006.[49][73] The resolution called for the deployment of foreign troops and the lifting of the arms embargo. The Islamic Courts and Muslim Somali leaders had in the months prior to the resolution firmly rejected the deployment of any international military forces in Somalia as an act of war.[49] Top leaders of the TFG had previously requested that 20,000 foreign troops, including Ethiopian forces be deployed to Somalia, though the move was opposed by many parliamentarians.[65] While the resolution explicitly dictated no neighbouring states would be permitted to participate, Ethiopia had already breached a prior UN resolution by deploying thousands of troops into Somalia. The resolution was widely viewed by the Courts as the UN Security Council unjustly legitimizing an Ethiopian invasion, considering the UNSCR had refused to make any commentary or statement on the troops already deployed inside of Somalia. Herman Cohen, the US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, noted the US decision to back resolution had been influenced by false Ethiopian intelligence. The Islamic Courts Union viewed the passing of UNSCR 1725 as effectively a declaration of war and an international endorsement of the invasion.[49] Al-Shabaab, one of the militia within the military wing of the Islamic Courts Union, increasingly radicalized in response to the Ethiopian incursion.[74] The United States Assistant Secretary of State issued a statement openly accusing the ICU leadership of being members of Al-Qaeda.[75]

On December 8, 2006, the ICU were attacked by TFG forces, backed up by Ethiopian troops. According to the BBC, ICU Chairman Sharif Sheikh Ahmed called on Somalis to "stand up and defeat the enemies".[76] Another official said Ethiopian troops had shelled the town of Bandiradley. The Deputy Defence Minister of the TFG, Salat Ali Jelle, confirmed the fighting but denied any Ethiopian troops were involved. The Ethiopian government denied repeated claims that its troops were fighting alongside TFG militia. Witnesses in Dagaari village near Bandiradley said that they saw hundreds of Ethiopian troops and tanks take up positions near the town with militiamen from the northeastern semi-autonomous region of Puntland.[77] On 13 December, the ICU claimed 30,000 Ethiopian troops were deployed inside of Somalia.[14] On 14 December, locals and ICU officials in Hiran reported a large scale deployment of ENDF forces across the border over a 48-hour period in the regions environs.[78]

Forces involved

Forces involved are difficult to calculate because of many factors, including lack of formal organization or record-keeping, and claims marred by disinformation. For months leading up to the war, Ethiopia maintained it had only a few hundred advisors in the country, yet independent reports indicated far more troops.

Approximately 40,000 to 50,000 Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) troops backed by tanks, helicopter gunships and jets had been involved in the offensive against the Islamic Courts Union during December 2006.[79][80] The TFG claimed only 12,000 to 15,000 Ethiopian troops had been deployed Somalia,[81] while the Ethiopian government claimed only 4,000.[81] During 2007 military experts estimated 50,000 Ethiopian troops were occupying parts of Somalia.[82][83] Other estimates placed the figure at 40,000.[84][85] During the invasion phase of the war, US Special Forces, CIA paramilitary and Marine units, backed American AC-130's and helicopter gunships directly intervened in support of the ENDF.[86][87] The TFG possessed approximately 6,000 soldiers.[88]

The insurgency that followed the collapse of the ICU was composed of numerous different groups and factions, making it difficult to determine who was responsibility for a variety of attacks and incidents, though Al-Shabaab ultimately became the most powerful and active element.[89]

2006

Before the full-scale invasion began, more than 10,000 ENDF forces had been built up in and around Baidoa over the months since the first incursion in June 2006. Much of Bay and Bakool region had already been occupied by Ethiopian troops.[49] Significant logistical and intelligence support was offered by the US military to the ENDF. The Pentagon provided access to aerial reconnaissance and satellite surveillance of ICU positions. The US also played a substantial role in sponsoring the invasion, even covering the expenses such as fuel and spare parts for Ethiopian troops. Reuters reported American and British Special Forces, along with US-hired mercenaries, had been laying the ground work for the invasion within and outside Somalia since late 2005.[49]

As tensions escalated, different members within the ICU made unilateral statements regarding the response to the Ethiopian invasion without consulting the ICU leadership.[49][90] On 13 December 2006, two high ranking officials in the ICU's military wing, Yusuf Indhacade and his deputy Mukthar Robow, gave Ethiopian troops deployed in Somalia a seven day ultimatum to withdraw from the country or face expulsion.[90] The Courts were divided over whether or not to forcibly eject invading ENDF forces, and the European Union began last minute diplomatic efforts to halt the outbreak of war, resulting in contradictory statements from various ICU leaders. Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and Hassan Dahir Aweys, both adopted conciliatory stances as a result, but the sharp rise in tensions had empowered the Courts 'Hawks' who viewed the growing Ethiopian military forces and the passing of UNSCR 1725 as proof of an international conspiracy against the ICU.[90] Statements from the international actors were contradictory as the African Union had at first endorsed the Ethiopian invasion, only to quickly retract the statement two days later.[49]

December 19–23

The first battle of the war began soon after the ultimatum expired on December 19th. ICU fighters, many of who were university students, attacked Ethiopian positions in Daynunay, 20 kilometres east of Baidoa. Soon after heavy fighting and artillery shelling broke out on several different front lines.[91][92] Some of the most intense fighting of the war took place between the ICU and ENDF/TFG around the towns of Daynuunay and Idaale. Heavy weaponry was utilized in a large scale face-to-face confrontation primarily between the Islamic Courts and Ethiopian forces.[93] Accounts from opposing camps noted heavy causalities from the fighting, with many bodies littering the battlefields, along with a massive influx of reinforcements.[94] By the end of the 21 December fighting had subsided and ICU was successfully advancing towards Baidoa.[93] Daveed Gartenstein-Ross reported that between 19 and 21 December, the ICU and Ethiopian troops had faced off in open battle in three encounters. Despite the material and numerical odds against the Islamic Courts, they had prevailed in the three battles. These early victories led western intelligence officials and analysts to fear that the ICU would overrun the city.[95] According to US intelligence sources, in the initial days of the conflict, the ICU effectively utilized tactics against ENDF tanks that mirrored those employed by Hezbollah several months prior during the 2006 Lebanon War against Israeli Defense Forces armor.[96] ICU forces managed to push only eight kilometres away from Baidoa, but lacking effective counters to Ethiopian artillery and armor superiority, fighters who charged the Ethiopian front line suffered high casualties.[97]

In an interview with Al-Jazeera, Sharif Sheikh Ahmed later claimed that after achieving a string of battlefield victories, ICU troops had come under unexpected bombardment from US aircraft.[98] American gunships, including helicopters and the AC-130, flew out of Dire Dawa and Diego Garcia to provide air support for Ethiopian troops.[99][100] US Special forces and CIA paramilitary units also participated.[101][79][87] The participation of the US ground and air forces provided the ENDF with massive military superiority over the ICU. Ali Gedi, then prime minister of the TFG and a participant in planning for the invasion noted that, “The Ethiopians were not able to come in without the support of the US Government...American air forces were supporting us."[102]

Map of the initial Ethiopian advancements in December 2006

The second major battle of the war took place at Idaale on 21 December. Ethiopian troops fought ICU militias closely aligned with the Al-Shabaab, who were more experienced and equipped. ENDF forces were drawn out of their positions into battle when an Al Shabaab unit attacked an Ethiopian position and then feinted a retreat. The Ethiopians pursued with a large contingent of troops and were soon ambushed by hundreds of Al Shabaab fighters, initiating a massive battle between the ENDF and ICU that would last three days.[103] After two days of large scale clashes, Sheik Hassan Dahir Aweys announced Somalia was in a state of war;[104] but clarified the ICU considered itself at war with Ethiopia and not the TFG.[105] On 22 December nearly 20 Ethiopian T-55's headed toward the front line. According to government sources Ethiopia had 20 tanks and four attack helicopters in Baidoa. Most of the heavy combat that took place occurred in relatively uninhabited areas along the front.[106] By the end of 22 December, both sides claimed to have killed hundreds of each other's troops.[105]

The Battle of Bandiradley began on December 23, 2006, when Ethiopian and Puntland forces, along with Abdi Qeybdid of the Somali Warlord Alliance, fought ICU militias defending Bandiradley.[107] With the defensive capabilities of the Courts overextended and overwhelmed,[90] the tide turned against them on the fourth day of the war as the Ethiopian army continued deploying their superior military hardware.[97] The ICU positions at Bandiradley in central Somalia was the first to fracture, leaving a significant gap in the front line.[90] No ICU reserves were available to deploy in the exposed northern flank, enabling the Ethiopian military to begin a blitzkrieg.[108] AS ENDF convoys drove through the Ogaden region to reach the front line, the ONLF began attacking those attempting to join the war. The ONLF announced that on 23 December, in-line with their policy of resisting attacks on Somalia, they had attacked a convoy consisting of twenty armored vehicles and several trucks driving through Korahe Zone. The ONLF reported that after inflicting causalities and destroying four vehicles, the convoy had to retreat and abandon its planned operations in Somalia.[109]

December 24–27

By 24 December, the ICU claimed to have advanced only 12 kilometres away from Baidoa. In an interview with Shabelle Media, an ICU military commander claimed the courts had destroyed four ENDF tanks during a battle at Daynuunay. The Ethiopian Air Force bombed ICU positions and a strategic road in Beledweyne.[110] That same day Ethiopia admitted its troops were fighting the ICU for the first time, after stating earlier in the week it had only sent several hundred military advisors to Baidoa.[111] After Ethiopia admitted its troops were inside Somalia, the TFG continued to publicly deny the presence of ENDF troops, further undermining its credibility.[49] Heavy fighting erupted in border areas, with reports of airstrikes and shelling, including targets near the town of Beledweyne. According to Ethiopian Information Minister Berhan Hailu: "The Ethiopian government has taken self-defensive measures and started counter-attacking the aggressive extremist forces of the Islamic Courts and foreign terrorist groups."[112]

50,000 Ethiopian troops took part in the invasion.[79] The ICU forces, composed primarily of lightly armed and inexperienced youth were heavily outnumbered, outgunned and exhausted. In the ensuing blitzkrieg, the most inexperienced Islamist fighters were badly mauled. The majority of ICU losses did not include professional fighters, but the many inexperienced ICU volunteers from various Somali clans. Fighting against forces with complete armor and air supremacy the ICU front line began to collapse in the face of conventional warfare.[90][103][108] Defending Islamist forces withdrew from Beledweyne concurrent to Ethiopian airstrikes against the Mogadishu and Baledogle airports.[113] Heavy fighting was also reported in Burhakaba. The fighting pushed the Islamists out of Bandiradley and over the border south into Adado district, Galgadud region, by December 25. On 26 December 2006, the United Nations envoy to Somalia urged an end to the fighting, and the President of the United Nations Security Council, proposed a draft statement calling for an immediate cease-fire and the withdrawal of all international forces, specifying Ethiopian troops. US, Britain, France, and Russia, objected to the statement, saying peace talks and agreement were necessary before troops could withdraw.[114][115]

On the sixth and seventh day of fighting in open battle, the courts began to pull back from the front line around Baidoa, Idaale, Dinsoor, Daynuunay and Burhakaba. Analysts reported that the withdrawal had occurred simultaneously across the ICU's entire front, indicating a deliberate coordinated change in strategy rather than a chaotic rout. According to David Shinn, former US ambassador to Ethiopia, the ICU had recognized their vulnerability to sustained attacks from Ethiopian air and armor superiority in conventional warfare. Consequently, they opted for a transition to insurgent tactics. Following the withdrawal, ICU head Sharif Sheikh Ahmed declared that the conflict had entered 'a new phase.'[116] As the ICU began withdrawing from the front, Sharif Ahmed called on former Somali National Army (SNA) personnel to join the struggle against the invasion.[117][118] On 27 December, the leaders of the Islamic Courts Union, including Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and Sheikh Abdirahman Janaqow resigned, and the organization effectively dissolved.[119] The ICU had evacuated many towns it had taken over the summer of 2006 without putting up a fight. The ICU top two commanders, defence chief Yusuf Mohammed Siad Inda'ade and his deputy Abu Mansur were away on the Hajj pilgrimage in Mecca. Ethiopian and TFG forces were en route to Somalia's capital, Mogadishu having captured the strategic town of Jowhar, 90 km north from the capital.[120] That same day the African Union, supported by the Arab League and the IGAD, called for Ethiopia to withdraw from Somalia immediately.[121]

Route of ICU withdrawal from southern front and Mogadishu between 27 and 29 December

December 28–31

As Ethiopian troops advanced on Mogadishu, they were accompanied by the warlords who the ICU had defeated in mid-2006. The Ethiopians allowed the warlords to regain control over the fiefdoms they had previously lost to the courts.[49]

On 28 December, Ethiopian and government forces marched into the city of Mogadishu unopposed. After the Fall of Mogadishu to the Ethiopian and TFG forces on December 28, the Islamists retreated from the Juba River valley. Heavy artillery fire was reported on December 31 in the Battle of Jilib and the ICU withdrew by midnight, leaving Kismayo, without a fight and retreating towards the Kenyan border. On December 31, 2006, A heavily armed column of government and Ethiopian troops advanced from Mogadishu through Lower Shabelle towards Kismayo. Demoralized, many fighters returned to their homes. The remnants of the ICU forces that continued fighting, including Al-Shabaab fighters, left the Mogadishu and moved south towards Kismayo.[108] By the end of 2006, approximately 1,000 ICU, 500 ENDF and 200 TFG had died in combat.[122]

2007

Military events in January 2007 focused on the southern section of Somalia, primarily the withdrawal of the ICU from Kismayo following the Battle of Jilib, and their pursuit using Ethiopian and American airstrikes until a final stand during the Battle of Ras Kamboni. US AC-130 gunships flying out of Ethiopia pounded retreating ICU convoys,[100] and Kenyan troops assisted in capturing fleeing ICU forces.[123] American airstrikes focused on decapitating the ICU leadership, in one instance killing Sheikh Abdullahi Nahar, a popular leader of the movement.[124] The United States admitted to conducting a strike against targets that they claimed were suspected Al-Qaeda operatives. An admission to a second air attack was made later in January.[125] Initially, the US claimed that it had successfully targeted Al-Qaeda operatives responsible for the 1998 embasy bombings, but later retroactively downgraded those killed to being 'associates with terrorists'.[75] Al-Shabaab militia suffered several losses in this period, resulting in a temporary loss of command and control over the organization.[126] The Pentagon's announcement of air attacks in Somalia during the Ethiopian offensive confirmed the belief of many analysts that the US was involved in the invasion. American air power was used against villages in southern Somalia, resulting in significant civilian casualties. In one attack seventy-three nomadic herders and their livestock were killed in a US air strike.[127] United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon publicly expressed concern that the American attacks would escalate the conflict.[128]

Occupation of Mogadishu

In January, the Ethiopian government claimed it would withdraw "within a few weeks"[129] After the Fall of Mogadishu, the security situation began to rapidly deteriorate. On 7 January, anti-Ethiopian protests broke out in Mogadishu, with hundreds of residents hurling stones and shouting threats towards ENDF troops. Ethiopian troops opened fire on the crowd after stones struck their patrol car, resulting in the death of two; including a 13-year boy. That same night a former ICU official was also assassinated in the city by gunmen.[130][131] On 13 January, the TFG imposed martial law. The directives, which included a ban on public meetings, attempts to organize political campaigns and major media outlets, was enforced by Ethiopian troops. Warlord militia checkpoints began reappearing on Mogadishu roads and insecurity started once again returning to the city.[127] Several high ranking figures of the TFG, including ex-speaker Sharif Hassan Sheikh Aden, were fired for calling for a compromise with the ICU.[132]

On 19 January, insurgents in Mogadishu launched an assault on the ENDF/TFG held Villa Somalia. A 30-minute battle ensued involving tanks, though there were no reported casualties on either side. Soon after, the ICU claimed responsibility for the attack, declaring it as part of a "new uprising".[133][134][135] The following day an ENDF convoy in the city came under ambush. Residents reported that the Ethiopian troops had responded by firing into crowds indiscriminately.[134] The incidents began sparking concern of an upstart Islamist insurgency.[133] Mogadishu was divided into two segments, one controlled by the ENDF/TFG and the other by emerging resistance movements.[136]

Deployment of AMISOM

On 20 February 2007, the United Nations Security Council granted authorization for the deployment of a peacekeeping mission by the African Union, known as the African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM). The mission's primary objective was to provide support for a national reconciliation congress in Somalia.[137] From 2007 to 2009, the military component was predominantly composed of troops from Uganda, Burundi, and a few Kenyans. During 2007, the operation relied heavily on Ugandan Peoples Defence Forces (UPDF), as Uganda played a crucial role in offering support to the initiation of the mission. By the end of the year, Burundian troops also joined the effort. However, AMISOM's initial mandate did not permit the use of offensive force, resulting in limited involvement in the conflict between Ethiopian forces and the insurgency. This dynamic led to growing tensions between AMISOM and the ENDF, exacerbated by a lack of transparency from Ethiopia regarding its objectives within Somalia.[138] The European Union was reportedly 'exceptionally unhappy' about the heavy US support for the December invasion, and held back funds for the newly created AMISOM mission for several months.[49]

Rise of the insurgency

In late February and early March 2007, insurgent attacks on ENDF/TFG forces in Mogadishu became a daily occurrence, growing in both complexity and sophistication.[139] During March, the resistance began in earnest with small units of Somali fighters engaging in hit-and-run attacks on Ethiopian positions in Mogadishu. Ethiopian troops retaliated with large scale and indiscriminate artillery and aerial bombardments of civilian areas. During the fighting, entire districts were destroyed.[140] That month Ethiopian and TFG troops were suffering mounting causalities.[141] On 15 March 2007, TFG President Abdullahi Yusuf accused ICU rebels in Mogadishu of being responsible for shelling Villa Somalia with mortars moments after he arrived. In a telephone interview with Al-Sharq al-Awsat, President Yusuf declared that no ICU leadership would be allowed to partake in the national reconciliation process.[142] In the ensuing days, insurgent activities intensified further. Between 16 and 18 March 2007, there was a rapid escalation in attacks, accompanied by an increase in mortar fire volume. An large ENDF convoy was ambushed, leading to a major battle near Mogadishu port, and a high-ranking TFG regional police commander was assassinates in Kismayo.[143] The TFG soon began to run into increasing opposition from remnants of the Islamic Courts Union, and despite moving much of the government in January to Mogadishu, many ministers chose to remain in Baidoa.[144] During 2007, members of the Islamic Courts led the resistance to the occupation, attracting significant support from Somalis in the Banaadir region and from Somalis across the world.[136] Al-Shabaab did not heavily participate in the insurgency or large scale fighting for most of 2007, opting instead to carry out bombings and assassinations.[145]

By the end of March, the fighting intensified in Mogadishu and more than a thousand people, mostly civilians, were killed. ICU remnants, Hawiye clan militia, volunteers and other Islamist groups engaged in fierce rounds of fighting in dense urban eras for several weeks of March and April against Ethiopian/TFG forces.[89] By April, a third of Mogadishu's buildings were in ruins along with much of the cities modest economic infrastructure.[140] The presence of Ethiopian troops reinforced the authoritarian behaviour of the TFG.[136] In June 2007, as ENDF troops were getting mired in the insurgency, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi publicly stated that the Ethiopian government had “made a wrong political calculation” by invading Somalia.[146] In July 2007, the insurgency had spread to the greater Banaadir region, Middle Shabelle, Lower Shabelle and the Jubba Valley. During August violence in Mogadishu escalated sharply. Ethiopian troops utilized tanks and heavy artillery to bombard insurgent strongholds in the capital, resulting in the worst mass exodus in the cities history.[141] ENDF forces utilized white phosphorus munitions in residential areas of the city, resulting in civilian fatalities.[50] The escalating insurgency resulted in the deployment of an additional 10,000 Ethiopian troops in Mogadishu and its environs.[136]

During September 2007, the Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS) was formed. The following month Al-Shabaab spokesman Mukhtar Robow stated that the group did not recognize and had no relationship with the ARS.[147] As fighting in Mogadishu escalated, ICU remnants in southern Somalia found a window of opportunity and peacefully captured the town of Dhobley near the Kenyan border in mid October.[148] From 8–16 November, another large scale multi-day battle occurred in Mogadishu.[149] In December 2007, Ethiopian troops withdrew from the strategic town of Guriel, which was then taken quickly over by insurgents.[150] By the end of December 2007, there were over 700,000 internally displaced people and 6,000 civilians had been killed in Mogadishu. The United Nations said it was the worst ever humanitarian crises in Africa. The TFG claimed that the ICU was regrouping, but the Ethiopian Government refuted this claim.[151]

Al Shabaab

The invasion had resulted in the deaths of many ICU affiliates, leaving a vacuum for the small group of youth that served in the ICU's Al-Shabaab militia to step in.[152] During 2007 and 2008, Al-Shabaab garnered substantial support from the Somali population, cutting across clan lines. The Ethiopian invasion was the groups primary catalyst for mobilization among the population. Despite its strict ideology, the group was widely perceived as a genuine resistance force against Ethiopian occupation by many Somalis, and while not universally popular, it was widely acknowledged for its effective training and formidable capabilities in pushing out Ethiopian troops. Heavy handed tactics and blatant disregard for civilian life by Ethiopian troops rallied many Somalis to support the Al-Shabaab as it successfully branded itself as the most determined and uncompromising resistance faction.[37][153]

Situation in Somalia in December 2007

2008

By the beginning of 2008, insurgent pressure had mounted on the Ethiopian and TFG troops in the south-central regions of Somalia. The Shabeelle, the Jubba Valley along with the Bay and Bakool regions in particular became hot spots. Islamist fighters gained strength and were able to move from different towns with little resistance as they had accrued significant public support. What had at first seemed to be a serious probes soon morphed into an significant offensive against Ethiopian and TFG forces.[141]

Islamist territorial expansion

Islamist insurgents began adopting sophisticated strategies to win greater public support and legitimacy. To fill in the void left by the Transitional Federal Government, insurgents began to deploy mobile Sharia courts to administer justice while apprehending criminals. They also began clan conflict mediation and distributing aid to the impoverished. Attacks on highway bandits and checkpoints became frequent.[141] Al-Shabaab began governing territory for the first time in 2008 as it started taking control of significant tracts of southern Somalia.[32][153] Early that year, Seyum Mesfin, the Ethiopian Foreign Minister claimed that Mogadishu and Somalia had significantly improved since the invasion and that there were no longer any 'no go zones' in the country.[154]

In February 2008, Al Shabaab captured the town of Dinsoor after probing it several times. This marked a change in their strategy which previously focused mainly on the capital Mogadishu.[155][156][157] The boldest insurgent expansion occurred in April 2008, when Islamist fighters seized control of Jowhar, only 90km away from the capital Mogadishu.[141] In late May, Jilib and Harardhere fell under the control of Islamist insurgents, who then began advancing on the strategic southern port city of Kismayo.[158] Representatives of both the Islamic Courts and Al-Shabaab entered into a secretive agreement to allow the clan militia in power to remain,[159] though Al-Shabaab overran the city later in August.[160] In June 2008 a new Islamic court was opened in Jowhar.[161] In late July, forces loyal to the Islamic Courts Union engaged in a battle with Ethiopian troops in the city of Beledweyne.[162]

Escalation of insurgency

On March 3, 2008, the United States launched an air strike on the Somali town of Dhoble. U.S. officials claimed the town was held by Islamic extremists, but gave few details to the press.[163] It was reported that Hassan Turki was in the area. The same area was targeted by US bombers one year earlier.[164] An air strike occurred on May 1 in Dhusamareb. It killed the leader of Al-Shabaab Aden Hashi Eyrow along with another senior commander and several civilians; however, the attack did nothing to slow down the Insurgency.[165] US airstrikes targeting the groups leadership had the effect of radicalizing Al-Shabaab even further. The killing of Aden Hashi Eyrow led to foreign fighters integrating within the ranks of the organization, and resulted in the leadership of Ahmed Godane. This change in leadership had significant effect on Shabaab's future decision making regarding the usage of tools such as suicide bombing.[37][166]

By mid-2008, Al-Shabaab, remnants of the Islamic Courts Union and supporters of the Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS) were the primary insurgent forces operating in Somalia.[167] The insurgency waged an increasingly complex war against the ENDF and TFG. A targeted assassination campaign was initiated against the TFG, primarily aimed at the National Security Agency (NSA), resulting in nearly 30 NSA agents and informants being assassinated in 2008. Insurgent attacks further increased in complexity and sophistication, with attacks killing scores of Ethiopian and TFG troops weekly. As the insurgency gained most of the territory that had been lost by the Islamic Courts Union, fractures began appearing between the different Islamist factions. In Beledweyne and Jalalaqsi, the insurgents in power distanced themselves from both Al-Shabaab and the ARS. In October 2008, fighters loyal to the Islamic Courts Union and Al-Shabaab fought each other in Balad.[141]

By Autumn of 2008, the insurgency controlled more than 80% of the territory that had been previously lost in the invasion.[140] As the situation deteriorated, the ENDF started experiencing desertions and the army began to draw down forces in Mogadishu and across towns in Somalia.[141] By October 2008, virtually all opposition groups in the Ethiopian parliament had come to the consensus that ENDF forces should be withdrawn from Somalia.[168] The 6,000 strong TFG forces also suffered from low morale and experienced desertions, with many selling troops their weapons at local arms markets; only for the weapons to come into the hands of insurgents.[141] In November, the TFG lost control of Merca and the city fell to the insurgency. By late 2008 Al-Shabaab was consolidating a string of military successes and soon began threatening Mogadishu.[132] On 14 November they pushed only 15 km from Mogadishu near ENDF troops positions.[160] Other insurgent factions, such as the Islamic Courts captured towns such as Elas, only 16 km away from the capital.[169] Soon after President Abdullahi Yusuf admitted that the country was slipping to the insurgency and "raised the prospect his government could completely collapse." Ethiopia announced it would withdraw its troops from Somalia by the end of 2008 on 28 November.[160] Despite the Ethiopian presence in Mogadishu, by November 2008 insurgents openly walked on the streets and Al-Shabaab fighters would carry out public punishments and training exercises in the capital.[170]

Situation in Somalia in August 2008

Djibouti Agreement

After long talks in Djibouti over a ceasefire between the TFG and the Alliance for the Reliberation of Somalia, agreement was reached that the parliament would be doubled in size to include 200 representatives of the opposition alliance and 75 representatives of the civil society.[171] A new president and prime minister would be elected by the new parliament, and a commission to look into crimes of war would be established.[172] A new constitution was also agreed to be drafted shortly.[173]

In the months preceding the talks, Ethiopian troops had been continually mired in conflict and were sustaining heavy casualties. The Djibouti Agreement called for the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from Somalia.[138] In early December 2008, Ethiopia announced it would withdraw its troops from Somalia shortly, and but later stated that it would first help secure the withdrawal of the AMISOM peacekeepers from Burundi and Uganda before withdrawing. The quick withdrawal of the AMISOM peacekeepers was seen as putting additional pressure on the United Nations to provide peacekeeping.[174]

Following the agreement to merge the ARS and TFG, inter-insurgent disputes escalated over the issue of Ethiopian troops still within Somalia. Islamic Courts, ARS, Al-Shabaab forces periodically clashed with one other over support to the government or foreign troops.[175][176] In the months leading up to the agreement, some Islamic Courts groups in Somalia explicitly declared their independence of either the Asmara or Djibouti factions of the ARS.[177] In December 2008, President Abdullahi Yusuf resigned after stating the he had lost control of the country to Islamist insurgents.[36]

2009 Ethiopian withdrawal

January 2009 saw the withdrawal of the major ENDF deployment to Somalia, and the accession of former Islamic Courts Union leader Sharif Sheikh Ahmed to the Somali presidency. On 12 January 2009, the last ENDF troops departed from Mogadishu, ending the two year long occupation.[36][28] Al Shabaab rejected any peace deal and continued to take territories, including Baidoa. Another Islamist group, Ahlu Sunna Waljama'a, which is allied to the TFG and supported by Ethiopia, continued to attack Al-Shabaab.[178][179][180] Al Shabab accused the new TFG President of accepting the secular transitional government and have continued the civil war since he arrived in Mogadishu at the presidential palace.[181] After the parliament took in 200 officials from the 'moderate' Islamist opposition, ARS leader Sharif Sheikh Ahmed was elected TFG President on January 31, 2009.[182]

Situation in Somalia in February 2009, following the Ethiopian withdrawal

The Ethiopian occupation mostly failed.[34] By the time of the withdrawal, the TFG possessed control over only a few streets and buildings in Mogadishu with the rest of the city coming under control of Islamist factions, particularly Al-Shabaab.[30] The withdrawal of Ethiopian troops sapped Al-Shabaab of the widespread support it had enjoyed from civilians and across clan lines during the occupation.[153] The groups heavy handed tactics repulsed many Somali supporters.[74]

Casualties

Islamist insurgents, ENDF troops, TFG forces, AMISOM forces, and other involved parties in the conflict sustained considerable casualties. The true extent of these losses remains uncertain, primarily due to a lack of transparency from the involved parties and a dearth of reporting on casualties.

ENDF forces in Somalia sustained heavy casualties[183][184] but the extent and figure of losses remain uncertain, primarily due to censorship on the war enforced by Meles Zenawi's government from 2006 to 2009. In early 2007, NBC News reported that in Addis Ababa, a blackout of information regarding the war prevailed. Opposition groups in the Ethiopian Parliament to the ruling TPLF were never informed on the number of soldiers who had been killed in Somalia, a policy which the TPLF continued until and after the withdrawal.[185][168][186] By the end of 2007, ENDF casualties had reached an 'unsustainable level'. Somali witness accounts in Mogadishu estimated a rate of approximately 200 Ethiopian casualties weekly.[187] Independent experts claimed the ENDF casualty rate was around 100 troops a week by the end of the occupation. Estimates of losses are further complicated by the practice of ENDF troops in Somalia routinely disguising themselves in Somali TFG uniforms to conceal their presence.[187][188] Al-Shabaab operations between 2007 and 2009 had inflicted over a thousand fatalities on Ethiopian troops.[189] Shortly after the January 2009 withdrawal, Meles Zenawi publicly declined to disclose the number of ENDF casualties incurred during the occupation, stating on national television:

''...regarding the details on those killed or wounded in Somalia, I think the House does not need to know about how many were killed or wounded...I also think that I do not have an obligation to present such report."[186]

The figures for AMISOM troops killed in Somalia from their deployment in early 2007 to 2009 has also never been publicly revealed. African Union officials only publicly commented on casualty estimates on their entire operation for the first time in 2023.[190] AMISOM suffered several hundred casualties, but the figure from 2006 to 2009 is unknown. Ugandan Peoples Defence Forces (UPDF), was one of the largest AMISOM contingents, but never published figures on troop casualties.[188][191]

In December 2008, the Elman Peace and Human Rights Organisation said it had verified that 16,210 civilians had been killed and 29,000 wounded since the start of the war in December 2006.[25] In September of that year 1.9 million displaced civilians from homes in Mogadishu alone during the year 2007 had been documented.[27][192]

Aftermath and Consequences

By the end of the occupation, the majority of the territory seized from the Islamic Courts Union in December 2006 and January 2007 had fallen under the control of various Islamist and nationalist resistance groups.[35][37] Al-Shabaab was particularly empowered, as it established itself as an independent resistance faction in early 2007. The group notably began governing territory for the first time soon after, and became battle hardened over the next two years.[32][37] The invasion failed to empower the TFG, which only controlled parts of Mogadishu and its original 2006 capital of Baidoa by the last weeks of the occupation.[35][153] According to the Conciliation Resources 2010 report titled 'Endless War'[193]

The three years from 2006 to 2008 were catastrophic for Somalis. Military occupation, a violent insurgency, rising jihadism, and massive population displacement has reversed the incremental political and economic progress achieved by the late 1990s in south-central Somalia. With 1.3 million people displaced by fighting since 2006, 3.6 million people in need of emergency food aid, and 60,000 Somalis a year fleeing the country, the people of south-central Somalia face the worst humanitarian crisis since the early 1990s.

Instead of eliminating 'Jihadist' activity in Somalia, the Ethiopian invasion had the effect of creating more 'Jihadis' than had existed in the country before.[153] After the killing of Aden Hashi Ayro in 2008, Al-Shabaab began publicly courting Osama bin Laden in a bid to become part of Al-Qaeda, but was rebuffed by bin Laden. Following his death, Al-Shabaab pledged allegiance to Al-Qaeda in 2012.[37][194]

War crimes

Ethiopian troops and Transitional Federal Government forces committed human rights abuses and war crimes, including murder, rape, assault, and looting. In their December 2008 report 'So much to Fear' Human Rights Watch warned that since the Ethiopians had intervened in 2006 Somalia was facing a humanitarian catastrophe on a scale not witnessed since the early 1990s. They went on to accuse the TFG of terrorizing the citizens of Mogadishu and the Ethiopian soldiers for increasing violent criminality.[195] On April 19, 2008, Ethiopian soldiers reportedly massacred 21 Islamic students during the Al-Hidaya Mosque massacre.[196]

Suicide attacks

Islamist fighters in Somalia opened a completely new aspect in the Somali Civil War: suicide attacks. Here is a list of reported attacks:

Continued occupation

Despite the withdrawal of most ENDF troops following the 2008 Djibouti Agreement, there has been a continued occupation of Somalia by the Ethiopian army. Two weeks after the January 2009 withdrawal, it was reported that Ethiopian troops had once again crossed the border following the fall of Baidoa to Al-Shabaab. Bereket Simon, spokesman for the Ethiopian government, described the reports as fabrications and responded "The army is within the Ethiopian border. There is no intention to go back,"[201] Sharif Sheikh Ahmed continues to campaign for the withdrawal of the occupying Ethiopian forces. In May 2020 the Forum for National Parties which he leads, described the presence of non-AMISOM Ethiopian troops in Somalia as;

A blatant disregard for the longstanding agreement between the Federal Republic of Somalia and the AMISOM troop-contributing countries (TCC), which clearly defines the scope of the African Union peacekeeping mission in our country.

The letter went on to accuse the ENDF of a 'cavalier attitude' in there response to having shot down a civilian plane in Berdale which was carrying medical supplies for assistance in the COVID-19 pandemic. The Forum for National Parties blamed the Special Representative of the Chairperson of the African Union Commission for Somalia, Ambassador Francisco Madeira, for not only failing to secure the withdrawal of the non-AMISOM Ethiopian troops but having worked in collusion with them to interfere in the South West election in 2018 and Jubaland election in August 2019.[202] On 13 November 2020 Bloomberg reported that Ethiopia withdrew thousands of troops from Somalia and redeployed them to assist the Ethiopian government in the Tigray conflict.[203]

Continuation of the conflict

Mediation had begun between the Islamic Party and the new Transitional Government of Sharif as well as a growing divide being reported in the Al Shabaab organization that controls much of southern Somalia as a large number of Al Shabaab leaders who had held positions in government during the six-month reign of the Islamic Courts Union in 2006 had met behind closed doors with the President of the Transitional Government and the TFG had announced that Sharia law would be implemented in Somalia, but it had not acted on it.[204][205] Sharif's forces and African Union troops clashed with the Islamic Party and Al Shabaab forces, leading to at least 23 death.[206]

See also

References

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