Te Pūnaha Matatini Centre for Complex Systems and Networks (known as Te Pūnaha Matatini – 'the meeting place of many faces') is a New Zealand Centre of Research Excellence that focusses on interpreting data about the environment, economy, and society to inform policy decision-making and public debate. Funded by the New Zealand Government, it is hosted by the University of Auckland and works in partnership with other universities and organisations, including Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Te Pūnaha Matatini developed mathematical models within different scenarios and provided data to inform the response of the New Zealand Government to the pandemic. Shaun Hendy, David Hayman and Michael Plank were among the high-profile members of the organisation who regularly commented on the COVID-19 pandemic in the news media at the time. The leadership of Te Pūnaha Matatini investigators has supported the setting up of independent research programmes, including Covid-19 Modelling Aotearoa and The Disinformation Project.

Establishment and structure

The New Zealand Government developed the Centres of Research Excellence (CoREs) in 2001 based on "international evidence that research is more likely to be successful (in terms of quality, relevance and impact) if there is a critical mass of researchers who work together to share skills, knowledge and resources".[1] In 2012, two researchers, Shaun Hendy and Dion O'Neale began discussing how a collaborative, complex research system could make an impact, and in 2013 a proposal was submitted to the Centre of Research Excellence.[2]: p.5  After being interviewed by the Royal Society of New Zealand, it was announced in 2014 that Te Pūnaha Matatini Centre for Complex Systems and Networks, to be located in the Faculty of Science, Auckland University, was confirmed as one of the new Centres of Research Excellence (CoREs).[3] Adam Jaffe, in 2017, at the end of a five-year tenure as Director of Motu Economic and Public Policy Research, discussed the importance of the work Motu had done in assisting with the setting up of Te Pūnaha Matatini. He said it was one his "proudest achievements...[because]...it allows economists, physicists, mathematicians and ecologists to share different ways of approaching and quantifying the impact of networks...[and]... the joint innovation and productivity research has real potential to improve the complex systems that affect people's lives and livelihoods".[4]

Funded by the Tertiary Education Commission,[5] Te Pūnaha Matatini aimed to be a collaborative partnership that brought together "New Zealand's leading researchers in physics, economics, mathematics, biology, computer science, operations management, statistics, and social science to study complex systems and networks in the biosphere, the economy, and the marketplace".[6]

The organisation holds that its research spans the "breadth of human knowledge, from computational sciences to environmental economics, and from linguistics to indigenous philosophy to mathematical biology....celebrates the distinct status of Māori as tangata whenua, and is committed to upholding the principles of Te Tiriti o Waitangi".[7]

Shaun Hendy was Director until June 2021, when he was replaced by Cilla Wehi[2]: p.90  Operationally the organisation is structured with Kaumatua, an Executive Team, a Strategic Group, and Principal Investigators.[2]: pp.81–93  Dr Andrea Byrom accepted the role of Kairangi (person held in high esteem) in 2021[2]: pp.82  and Te Pūnaha Matatini whanau has a role within the organisation as a network for emerging scientists in an "active transdisciplinary community, with a shared interest in complex systems and networks, comprising postgraduate students, postdocs and early career researchers from all over New Zealand".[8] The 2020–2021 Annual Report of Te Pūnaha Matatini recorded that in June 2021, the organisation had "25 Principal Investigators, 50 Associate Investigators, [an] Executive Management Team of 15, [over] 150 students aligned with Te Pūnaha Matatini Whānau [and] 68 students directly funded by or working on Te Pūnaha Matatini projects".[2]: p.5 

Te Pūnaha Matatini has worked in partnership with Massey University, Victoria University of Wellington, University of Canterbury, Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research and Motu Economic and Public Policy Research and in October 2020,The Tertiary Education Commission reconfirmed funding for seven years from 2021.[9]

Reception

In May 2020, Samak Datta, a population modeller from National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), was part of a team of experts appointed to review the modelling done by Te Pūnaha Matatini. Datta said that "COVID-19 models developed by the Te Pūnaha Matatini researchers tend to be stochastic...this means they use probabilities rather than exact numbers. Models like these are useful because they can be run many times to see best-case, worst-case and most-likely scenarios of potential COVID-19 spread".[10]

When funding was reconfirmed in 2021, Dawn Freshwater acknowledged that the work of researchers from Te Pūnaha Matatini to the COVID-19 response underlined the importance of the Centres of Research Excellence.[11] Andy Shenk, CEO of Uniservices, the research commercialisation and knowledge mobilisation company of the University of Auckland,[12] said that modelling such as that done by Te Pūnaha Matini offered "data-crunching power...[to]...sequence and compare virus genomes, which aids contact tracing".[13]

Hendy was invited to present modelling at a press conference with Jacinda Ardern and Ashley Bloomfield on 23 September 2021 and he suggested that even with a high proportion of New Zealand's population vaccinated, up to 7000 deaths a year could be recorded. Ardern cautioned that the modelling was only one of the tools the government was using in its response to COVID-19.[14][15] Rodney Jones, another modeller who had provided advice to the New Zealand Government, disputed the claims made by Hendy, saying that the model was implausible and there was no need to "scare New Zealanders into getting vaccinated".[16] Hendy noted that the base model had been peer-reviewed earlier in the year, and did use "NZ-specific data on health outcomes", and Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said she would use modelling as one of the tools to inform decisions for the health response, without it being a "singular pathway" resulting in an inevitable outcome.[16] In 2022, the model was published in the peer-reviewed Nature-group journal Scientific Reports. [17]

Awards

Te Pῡnaha Matatini was awarded the 2020 Prime Minister's Science Prize in recognition of their work in developing mathematical models, analysis of data and communication of the results to inform the response of the New Zealand Government to COVID-19.[18] Shaun Hendy said that it had been an "unrepeatable experience" working with the team.[19] As the New Zealand Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern announced the award, she commented:

Even I underestimated the centrality of [science] advice for me, in this time in office, and just how important it would become to us as a government [and] I want to thank the many, many, many people in this room who were a part in your own ways in either helping us generate the information we needed to make those decisions, or who helped us communicate those decisions when it mattered most.[2]: p.37 

Covid-19 Modelling Aotearoa

In 2020, Shaun Hendy identified a gap in the science data being provided to the New Zealand Government to inform its response to COVID-19. He set up a multi-disciplinary team as part of Te Pūnaha Matatini that developed mathematical models in different scenarios for the position New Zealand was in early in the pandemic. This team became known as Covid-19 Modelling Aotearoa and has been a stand-alone project since 2021, funded as of 2022 by Manatū Hauora Ministry of Health.[20] The modelling and analysis covered areas such as "hospital capability, contagion rates and likely disease spread, virus genomic tracing, contact tracing, and vaccination... translated for use by the government policymakers and front-line operators and helped inform the government's response to the Covid-19 pandemic".[21] Hendy later noted that Peter-Lucas Jones from Te Aupōuri[22] who was present at a Board meeting that confirmed the need to focus on COVID-19, told the story of how the 1918 influenza pandemic had affected his iwi and when statistician Andrew Sporle[23][24] (Ngāti Apa, Rangitāne, Te Rarawa) was brought in to co-lead work focusing on at-risk communities an iwi-led pandemic response was shaped. Other researchers Associate Professor in Statistics Ilze Ziedins,[25] Dr Mike O'Sullivan[26] and Associate Professor Cameron Walker[27] from the Faculty of Engineering worked on models to predict the effect on hospitals if the virus spread widely within New Zealand.[28]

Modelling and commentary

In June 2020, modelling by Te Pūnaha Matatini had indicated that 83 per cent of New Zealanders would have needed to be vaccinated before other measures such as lockdowns were reduced but 97 per cent of the eligible people in the country would need both Pfizer jabs if the Delta variant spread. At the time, Shaun Hendy said it was unlikely that level of vaccine coverage would be reached. Principal Investigator Michael Plank said that just reaching a vaccination target would not give total default protection against the virus and "other communities which were hard to access or more at-risk to the virus might have lower rates of vaccination".[29]

As Auckland faced a second lockdown in August 2021, Hendy noted the significance of identification of links to border cases as this indicated fewer cases spreading in the community.[30] He later suggested that, despite a caveat to the prediction because of the possible effect of the opening some shops, modelling indicated that Auckland's outbreak could peak by November 2021. He said that the improving rate of vaccinations in the country might reduce the chance of the numbers increasing rapidly but a focus was needed on getting vulnerable rural communities vaccinated.[31]

When Jacinda Ardern announced a possible re-opening of the borders between Australia and New Zealand in April 2022, Hendy said this was a "significant milestone" in the approach of New Zealand to COVID-19 and Michael Plank said it showed the benefit of the elimination strategies pursued in both countries. Their comments however were tempered by the possibility of there being an escalation of the virus in Australia.[32] With the high transmissibility of the Delta variant being a concern, the modelling of Te Pūnaha Matatini continued to indicate that without good rates of vaccination to build population immunity, there could still be a substantial community outbreak that would put the healthcare system in New Zealand under immense strain.[33]

By the middle of December 2021, Plank said he was troubled about the impact of the high transmissibility of the Omicron variant in New Zealand,[34] and the case could be made for a review of the plans to open the border with Australia in 2022 due to an increase in cases in Sydney.[35] When the Omicron COVID-19 variant was confirmed as likely to be circulating within New Zealand, Plank said that the modelling suggested an outbreak,[36] and this would require careful management of isolation periods.[37]

Selected publications

  • Model-free estimation of COVID-19 transmission dynamics from a complete outbreak(2021).[38] Using a dataset of epidemiologically linked cases of COVID-19 in New Zealand, this paper explored transmission dynamics of the virus that depended on factors such as age, and response to different control measures. The research showed that children and imported cases had a low probability of transmitting the virus, but superspreading event contributed significantly to the dynamics and this could be limited by border controls and social distancing measures.
  • We built a model that shows how small rule changes can fuel delta's spread (2021).[39] Members of Te Pūnaha Matatini COVID-19 modelling team looked at how small policy changes can result in widespread spread of COVID-19 through networks due to the percolation effects. The research published in the article showed even if there were only a small number of additional connections, an uncontrolled spread was likely to find unvaccinated people.
  • Doughnuts and dandelions: Reimagining our food system post Covid-19 (2020)[40] This article in The Spinoff looked at community initiatives in Auckland that were building resilient food systems that were socially inclusive and sustainable to deal with vulnerabilities in food chains as a result of COVID-restrictions. The writers said a healthier food system that supported more people was achievable in Aotearoa.
  • Collective impact: Shining the light on community post Covid-19(2020)[41] Researchers from Te Pūnaha Matatini looked at how New Zealand communities, as a result of the disruption caused by COVID-19 were becoming more vocal about what needed to change due to unequal access to resources and power and how this inequality was increasingly impacting on the health of people in diverse communities. It was suggested that the proposed Public Service Legislation Bill before parliament at the time may learn from COVID-19 to listen to the needs and aspirations of New Zealand communities.
  • Estimated inequities in COVID-19 infection fatality rates by ethnicity for Aotearoa New Zealand (2020).[42] This paper examined differential impacts of COVID-19 for high-risk groups within New Zealand, particularly Māori and Pasifika and concluded that the impacts of colonisation had contributed to inequities due to the marginalisation of these communities.

The Disinformation Project

Initially set up within Te Punaha Matatini, The Disinformation Project as of 2022 is an independent research programme that has analysed the seeding and spread of mis- and disinformation within New Zealand society from the early days of COVID-19 through to the aftermath of the occupation of the New Zealand parliament grounds.[43]

Selected publications

  • Working Paper: The murmuration of information disorders Aotearoa New Zealand’s mis- and disinformation ecologies and the Parliament Protest (2022). This paper extends the examination begun in November 2021 into the tactics used by the demonstrators during the 2022 Wellington protest to disseminate mis- and dis-information that led to several "tipping points...in the embedding of information disorders [that] will take years to fully understand".[44]: p.2  The authors conclude that to maintain social cohesion and develop shared narratives for "Aotearoa New Zealand to operate within democratic, inclusive, and progressive values many in this country celebrate, continued efforts towards social cohesion are required...[relying on]... trust and cooperation between people with different values and identities". The paper holds that the partnership concept of The Treaty of Waitangi is a starting point from which Aotearoa New Zealand can "make a global contribution to these pressing and intermediate issues".[44]: p.15 
  • Working Paper: Mis- and disinformation in Aotearoa New Zealand from 17 August to 5 November 2021 (2021).[45] This research is an observation and analysis on data related to COVID-19 that is readily available to the public of New Zealand. The conclusion reached, is that from August 2021, there had been a considerable increase in COVID-specific disinformation and the spread of far-right ideologies and that posed a threat to safety and inclusion in New Zealand society.

References

  1. ↑ Royal Society Te Aparangi (July 2019). "Centres of Research Excellence (CoREs) Application guidelines for the 2019/20 selection round" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on 1 February 2022. Retrieved 27 January 2022.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 "Te Punaha Matatini Annual Report 2020-2021" (PDF). 2021. Archived (PDF) from the original on 16 February 2022. Retrieved 2 February 2022.
  3. ↑ Wiles, Siouxsie (8 May 2014). "Government announces new Centres of Research Excellence (CoREs)". Sciblogs. Archived from the original on 2 February 2022. Retrieved 2 February 2022.
  4. ↑ "Director role: advice and influence at the highest level". Motu Search Publications. 25 July 2017. Archived from the original on 1 February 2022. Retrieved 8 February 2022.
  5. ↑ "Tertiary Education Commission". Data Govt NZ. Archived from the original on 3 February 2022. Retrieved 2 February 2022.
  6. ↑ "Te Pūnaha Matatini Centre for Complex Systems and Networks". Victoria University of Wellington Te Herenga Waka. 19 May 2014. Archived from the original on 3 February 2022. Retrieved 2 February 2022.
  7. ↑ "Te Pūnaha Matatini Research Operations Coordinator". The University of Auckland. Archived from the original on 2 February 2022. Retrieved 2 February 2022.
  8. ↑ "TPM Whanau". Te Pūnaha Matatini. Archived from the original on 1 February 2022. Retrieved 2 February 2022.
  9. ↑ "Research excellence supported with $373m in long term funding". Tertiary Education Commission. 9 October 2020. Archived from the original on 4 February 2022. Retrieved 2 February 2022.
  10. ↑ "COVID-19 modelling". NIWA Taihoro Nukurangi. 26 May 2020. Archived from the original on 8 February 2022. Retrieved 6 February 2022.
  11. ↑ "New Centre of Research Excellence based at Auckland following funding announcement" (News and opinions). The University of Auckland. 9 October 2020. Archived from the original on 2 February 2022. Retrieved 2 February 2022.
  12. ↑ "UniServices Executive Leadership Team". The University of Auckland. Archived from the original on 26 January 2022. Retrieved 6 February 2022.
  13. ↑ "Big data for good in a post-pandemic Aotearoa". Uniservices The University of Auckland. 22 September 2021. Archived from the original on 8 February 2022. Retrieved 6 February 2022.
  14. ↑ Cooke, Henry (23 September 2021). "Covid-19 NZ: Modelling suggests 7000 deaths in a year even with 75 per cent of country jabbed". stuff. Archived from the original on 3 February 2022. Retrieved 3 February 2022.
  15. ↑ Lynch, Michael (2 October 2021). "That most controversial 1pm Covid press conference, explained". stuff. Archived from the original on 3 February 2022. Retrieved 3 February 2022.
  16. 1 2 Cooke, Henry (23 September 2021). "Covid-19 NZ: Rodney Jones says Shaun Hendy's 7000-death vaccine model doesn't pass plausibility test". stuff. Archived from the original on 3 February 2022. Retrieved 3 February 2022.
  17. ↑ Steyn, Nicholas; et al. (17 February 2022). "A COVID-19 vaccination model for Aotearoa New Zealand". Scientific Reports. 12 (2720). Archived from the original on 18 October 2022. Retrieved 1 September 2023.
  18. ↑ "Prime Minister recognises transformative science" (News and opinion). The University of Auckland New Zealand. 13 April 2021. Archived from the original on 31 January 2022. Retrieved 6 February 2022.
  19. ↑ Anderson, Ryan (13 April 2021). "Covid-19 researchers take out top Prime Minister's Science Prize". Stuff. Archived from the original on 31 January 2022. Retrieved 6 February 2022.
  20. ↑ "About Covid-19 Modelling Aotearoa". University of Auckland Waipapa Taumata Rau. Retrieved 24 November 2022.
  21. ↑ Ballance, Alison (15 April 2021). "2020 Prime Minister's Science Prize winners" (Our Changing World). RNZ. Archived from the original on 19 October 2021. Retrieved 8 February 2022.
  22. ↑ Husband, Dale (2 February 2020). "Peter-Lucas Jones: Storing our reo treasures". E-TANGATA. Archived from the original on 2 February 2022. Retrieved 27 January 2021.
  23. ↑ "Mr Andrew Antony Sporle" (Biography). The University of Auckland. Archived from the original on 9 February 2022. Retrieved 6 February 2022.
  24. ↑ "Science Leadership Team". Healthier Lives. Archived from the original on 2 February 2022. Retrieved 2 February 2022.
  25. ↑ "Associate Professor Ilze Brigita Ziedins" (University profile). The University of Auckland. Archived from the original on 9 February 2022. Retrieved 2 February 2022.
  26. ↑ "Professor Michael John O'Sullivan" (Biography). The University of Auckland. Archived from the original on 2 February 2022. Retrieved 2 February 2022.
  27. ↑ "Associate Professor Cameron Graham Walker" (Biography). The University of Auckland. Archived from the original on 9 February 2022. Retrieved 2 February 2022.
  28. ↑ "How Te Pūnaha Matatini became part of our Covid-19 response". Ingenio Magazine. Spring 2020 Edition. 20 October 2020. Archived from the original on 10 December 2021. Retrieved 6 February 2022.
  29. ↑ Pearse, Adam (30 June 2021). "Covid 19 coronavirus: 'Extremely difficult' – New herd immunity estimates revealed". NZ Herald. Archived from the original on 3 February 2022. Retrieved 2 February 2022.
  30. ↑ "Crucial border link found in investigation". Otago Daily Times. 20 August 2021. Archived from the original on 3 February 2022. Retrieved 3 February 2022.
  31. ↑ Quinn, Rowan (15 November 2021). "Auckland's Covid-19 outbreak could soon reach peak – Shaun Hendy modelling". RNZ. Archived from the original on 3 February 2022. Retrieved 3 February 2022.
  32. ↑ Wilson, Karl (4 August 2021). "Travel 'bubble' set for Australia, New Zealand". China Daily. Archived from the original on 4 February 2022. Retrieved 3 February 2022.
  33. ↑ Corlett, Eva (24 September 2021). "Jacinda Ardern looks to life beyond lockdowns with 90% vaccination target". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 3 February 2022. Retrieved 3 February 2022.
  34. ↑ Dann, Corin (13 December 2021). "Omicron will overtake Delta as most transmissible" (Interview on Morning Report). RNZ. Archived from the original on 12 December 2021. Retrieved 13 December 2021.
  35. ↑ "Summer Omicron outbreak would mirror NSW's huge jump in community cases – expert". RNZ News. 20 December 2021. Archived from the original on 28 December 2021. Retrieved 20 December 2021.
  36. ↑ Quinn, Rowan (24 January 2022). "Covid-19: Up to half of NZ population could become infected with Omicron – Modeller". RNZ. Archived from the original on 6 February 2022. Retrieved 28 January 2022.
  37. ↑ "Health experts warn of risks in phased approach to tackle Omicron outbreak". RNZ. 26 January 2022. Archived from the original on 2 February 2022. Retrieved 28 January 2022.
  38. ↑ James, Alex (24 March 2021). "Model-free estimation of COVID-19 transmission dynamics from a complete outbreak". PLOS ONE. 16 (3): e0238800. Bibcode:2021PLoSO..1638800J. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0238800. PMC 7990215. PMID 33760817.
  39. ↑ O'Neale, Dion; Harvey, Emily; et al. (26 October 2021). "We built a model that shows how small rule changes can fuel delta's spread" (Guest writer in The Spinoff Science). Archived from the original on 4 February 2022. Retrieved 2 February 2022.
  40. ↑ Te Pūnaha Matatini (1 December 2020). "Doughnuts and dandelions: Reimagining our food system post Covid-19" (Guest writer). The Spinoff. Archived from the original on 3 February 2022. Retrieved 2 February 2022.
  41. ↑ Matheson, Anna; et al. (27 August 2020). "Collective impact: Shining the light on community post Covid-19". The Spinoff. Archived from the original on 3 February 2022. Retrieved 2 February 2022.
  42. ↑ Nicholas, Steyn; Binny, Rachelle N.; et al. (4 September 2020). "Estimated inequities in COVID-19 infection fatality rates by ethnicity for Aotearoa New Zealand". New Zealand Medical Journal. 133 (1521). Archived from the original on 30 March 2022. Retrieved 2 February 2022.
  43. ↑ "About us". The Disinformation Project. Archived from the original on 10 May 2022. Retrieved 18 November 2022.
  44. 1 2 Hannah, Kate; Hattotuwa, Sanjana; Taylor, Kayli (May 2022). "Working Paper: The murmuration of information disorders Aotearoa New Zealand's mis- and disinformation ecologies and the Parliament Protest" (PDF). The Disinformation Project: Te Pūnaha Matatini; Centre for Science in Society, Te Herenga Waka. Archived (PDF) from the original on 17 May 2022. Retrieved 30 May 2022.
  45. ↑ Hannah, Kate (2021). "Working Paper: Mis-and disinformation in Aotearoa New Zealand from 17 August to 5 November 2021". Archived from the original on 2 February 2022. Retrieved 1 February 2022. {{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help)

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