Aftermath of the 2018 election

The 2018 provincial election resulted in no party winning a majority of seats in the legislature for the first time since the 1920 provincial election. On election night, Blaine Higgs claimed victory for the Progressive Conservative Party, saying his team had received a mandate from New Brunswickers; however, Liberal Party leader and incumbent premier Brian Gallant stated his intention to remain in office with a minority government by securing support on a vote-by-vote basis.^[4] Over the following days, Lieutenant Governor Jocelyne Roy-Vienneau met with both leaders and gave permission to Gallant to continue in office and attempt to seek the confidence of the Legislative Assembly;^[5] while Higgs was told that if Gallant was unable to secure the confidence of the Assembly, Higgs would be called on to form government.^[6]

After the election, both Kris Austin of the People's Alliance and David Coon of the Green Party were noncommittal in their support.^[7][8] Gallant pursued a partnership with the Green Party and ruled out any arrangement with the Progressive Conservative Party or People's Alliance because Gallant did not believe that they shared the Liberal Party’s “values”.^[9] Higgs initially ruled out any formal agreements with other parties, but later said that a four-year agreement would be ideal for stability.^[10] On September 28, 2018, Austin agreed to support a Progressive Conservative minority government on a "bill-by-bill basis" for eighteen months, though no formal agreement was made.^[11]

On November 2, 2018, the Progressive Conservatives introduced a motion of no confidence in the Legislative Assembly, resulting in a 25–23 vote against the Liberals. Subsequently, Gallant resigned as Premier and recommended to the Lieutenant Governor that Higgs be given the opportunity to form government.^[12] Higgs' minority government was sworn into office on November 9, 2018.^[13]

On November 15, 2018, Gallant announced his resignation as leader of the Liberal Party.^[14] He was succeeded by Kevin Vickers on April 24, 2019.^[15]

Speculation of an early election

The PC minority government's seat total dropped to 20 after the death of MLA Greg Thompson on September 10, 2019 and the resignation of Deputy Premier Robert Gauvin on February 14, 2020.^[16] Gauvin's resignation came after the PC government announced health reforms, including the nightly closure of six hospital emergency rooms across the province as a cost reduction measure.^[16] Despite the Progressive Conservatives quickly backtracking on their proposals, the Liberals and the Greens said that they would not support the government at the next confidence vote, while the People's Alliance specifically did not rule out a vote of non-confidence.^[16][17][18] The next confidence vote was scheduled for March 20, 2020 to approve the PC government's proposed budget for the upcoming fiscal year;^[19] however, by that time, the People's Alliance decided to continue supporting the government and Green MLAs were allowed to vote freely on the budget.^[19] Furthermore, after COVID-19 was declared a pandemic on March 11, 2020, all parties decided to co-operate with each other—thus, avoiding a spring election.^[20]

By the summer, however, COVID-19 cases had stayed low for several weeks and Premier Blaine Higgs began to hint at the possibility of a fall election, arguing that stability was required for the next phase of the pandemic and economic recovery.^[21] The Progressive Conservatives carried out candidate riding nominations on August 8, 2020, continuing speculation of when an election might be called.^[22] On the following Monday, Higgs made an offer to the opposition parties to avoid an election until 2022 or the end of the pandemic;^[21] negotiations ultimately failed, however, and a snap election was called on August 17, 2020.^[2]

Summary of seat changes

Incumbent MLAs who were defeated

Results by region

Detailed analysis

Election call and initial reaction

At his election announcement, Progressive Conservative leader Blaine Higgs blamed the Liberals for the failure of negotiations that would have avoided an election until 2022 or the end of the pandemic.^[23] In response, Liberal leader Kevin Vickers and Green Party leader David Coon criticized Higgs for calling an election during a pandemic.^[23] Vickers insisted that the negotiations would have given unlimited power to Higgs and the PCs, and an election should have been held after the end of the pandemic.^[23] Meanwhile, People's Alliance leader Kris Austin asked New Brunswickers to vote for his party to ensure accountability of the next government by electing another minority legislature.^[2][23]

Impact of COVID-19

From the outset of the campaign, Higgs was asked about the potential impact of COVID-19 on the election.^[2] He initially caused confusion when he said that he would be able to suspend the election, if necessary,^[2] even though New Brunswick's Chief Electoral Officer Kim Poffenroth said that an election could not be stopped after it had been called.^[2] Additionally, Higgs suggested that he could turn to the COVID-19 emergency order declared by the province under the Emergency Measures Act (EMA), despite the fact that election timelines are exempt from the EMA.^[2] However, he remained firm that he did not intend to suspend the election.^[2] Higgs also shared that, because of COVID-19, PC candidates were instructed to avoid door-to-door campaigning and mailbox flyers during the election.^[2][23]

Candidate controversies

Roland Michaud, PC candidate in Victoria-La Vallée, was ordered to withdraw from the election by Blaine Higgs after a transphobic meme posted on Michaud's Facebook page became public;^[24] Michaud chose to remain and run as an independent.^[25] He remained on the ballot with his original affiliation because the papers had already been printed, as did other repudiated candidates.

John Wayne Gardner, Liberal candidate in Saint Croix, was ousted by party leader Kevin Vickers after an anti-LGBTQ2I tweet from 2017 came to light; Gardner announced later the same day that he would continue to run as an independent.^[26]

Louis Bérubé, PC candidate in Restigouche West, was allowed to remain as party candidate after transphobic social media comments mentioned in a 2016 Acadie Nouvelle story^[27] resurfaced.^[28] The party cited Bérubé's earlier apologies for his comments and his successful vetting before running for the Green Party in the 2019 election as reasons for his retention.

Heathere Collins, PANB candidate in Memramcook-Tantramar, was dropped by party leader Kris Austin after 2019 anti-Muslim Tweets came to light.^[29] The candidate, whose Elections NB registration disagreed with her Twitter account about how to spell her first name, remained in the election.

Retiring incumbents

The following sitting MLAs have announced that they would not seek re-election:

• Brian Kenny, Liberal MLA for Bathurst West-Beresford since 2014, and previously MLA for Bathurst from 2003 to 2014.^[30]
• Bruce Northrup, Progressive Conservative MLA for Sussex-Fundy-St. Martins since 2014, and previously MLA for Kings East from 2006 to 2014.^[31]
• Gerry Lowe, Liberal MLA for Saint John Harbour since 2018.^[32]
• Carl Urquhart, Progressive Conservative MLA for Carleton-York since 2014, and previously MLA for York from 2006 to 2014.^[33]
• Stewart Fairgrieve, Progressive Conservative MLA for Carleton since 2015.^[34]

Legend

• bold denotes cabinet minister, speaker or party leader
• † denotes an incumbent who is not running for re-election or was defeated in nomination contest
• # denotes an incumbent seeking re-election in a new district

NOTE: Candidates' names are as registered with Elections New Brunswick^[35]

Northern

Miramichi

Southeastern

Southern

Capital Region

Upper River Valley