2024 Dunkley by-election
TBD
Division of Dunkley (Victoria) in the House of Representatives
 
Candidate Jodie Belyea Nathan Conroy
Party Labor Liberal
Location of Dunkley in Melbourne
Incumbent MP

Peta Murphy
Labor


A by-election to elect the next member of the Australian House of Representatives in the electorate of Dunkley is expected to be held in 2024, following the death of sitting member Peta Murphy in December 2023.[1][2]

It will be the third federal by-election to have taken place since the first sitting of the 47th Parliament, as well as being the first by-election in a Labor seat since 2020 and the first federal by-election triggered by a member's death since 2015.

Background

The by-election was triggered by the death of sitting Labor member Peta Murphy, who died at 50 years old due to breast cancer. Murphy was first diagnosed with breast cancer when she was 37.

Murphy was elected as the member of Dunkley in 2019, after she unseated one-term incumbent Liberal MP Chris Crewther. At the 2022 federal election, Murphy was re-elected with an increased majority, turning it into a fairly safe seat.

The seat of Dunkley has been held by both Labor and the Liberals and has traditionally been a marginal seat. The seat has never been a safe or very safe seat and has only been a fairly safe seat (defined by the Australian Electoral Commission as a seat held by between 6 and 10 percent), twice: in 2004 (won by the Liberals with a margin of 9.38%) and in 2022 (won by Labor with a margin of 6.27%).

Since its creation in 1984, Dunkley has flipped between both major parties. From 1984 until 1990, when the Liberals gained the seat. The seat went back to Labor in 1993 before the Liberals regained it 1996 and held it until 2016.

While by-elections usually swing against the government, there are exceptions. At the 2023 by-election in the seat of Aston in eastern Melbourne, Labor won the seat from the Liberals, making it the first time the Government has won a seat from the Opposition at a federal by-election since 1920. However, at the 2023 by-election in the seat of Fadden on the Gold Coast, the Liberal National Party retained the seat with an increased majority.

Two-party-preferred vote in Dunkley, 1996–2022
Election1996199820012004200720102013201620192022
 Liberal53.36%52.04%55.42%59.38%54.04%51.02%55.57%51.43%47.26%43.73%
 Labor46.64%47.96%44.58%40.62%45.96%48.98%44.43%48.57%52.74%56.27%
GovernmentL/NPL/NPL/NPL/NPALPALPL/NPL/NPL/NPALP

2022 election results

This section is an excerpt from Results of the 2022 Australian federal election in Victoria § Dunkley.[edit]
2022 Australian federal election: Dunkley[3]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labor Peta Murphy 38,506 40.23 +1.71
Liberal Sharn Coombes 31,108 32.50 −7.38
Greens Liam O'Brien 9,898 10.34 +1.95
United Australia Adrian Irvine 4,846 5.06 +2.46
Independent Darren Bergwerf 3,698 3.86 +3.86
One Nation Scott Middlebrook 2,689 2.81 +2.81
Liberal Democrats Damian Willis 2,398 2.51 +2.51
Animal Justice Elizabeth Johnston 2,013 2.10 −0.96
Australian Federation Kathryn Woods 566 0.59 +0.59
Total formal votes 95,722 95.27 +0.41
Informal votes 4,750 4.73 −0.41
Turnout 100,472 90.06 −2.30
Two-party-preferred result
Labor Peta Murphy 53,865 56.27 +3.53
Liberal Sharn Coombes 41,857 43.73 −3.53
Labor hold Swing+3.53

Candidates

Party Candidate Background
  Labor Jodie Belyea Non-profit executive[4]
  Liberal Nathan Conroy Mayor of Frankston
  Libertarian Chrysten Abraham Former LDP candidate for Flinders and Frankston

Labor

Rod Glover, Peta Murphy's husband, was asked by "senior figures and local branch members" to run as Labor's candidate. Additionally, it was speculated in the media that former Victorian premier Daniel Andrews was a possible contender, however neither of these eventuated.[5][6] On 11 January 2024, Jodie Belyea was announced as Labor's candidate.[7]

Liberal

Three candidates ran for Liberal Party preselection − Frankston mayor and councillor Nathan Conroy, former Victorian MP Donna Hope and former Liberal candidate Bec Buchanan. A fourth candidate, David Burgess, withdrew from the race.[8] Conroy won preselection on 14 January 2024.[9]

Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Liberal Nathan Conroy 89 57.79
Liberal Donna Hope 40 25.97
Liberal Nathan Hersey 25 16.23
Total formal votes 154 100.0

See also

References

  1. ↑ "By-election to be held in Dunkley after tragic passing of Labor MP Peta Murphy". Sky News. 4 December 2023. Retrieved 4 December 2023.
  2. ↑ "Anthony Albanese in tears after Labor MP Peta Murphy's shock death". News.com.au. 4 December 2023. Retrieved 4 December 2023.
  3. ↑ Dunkley, VIC, 2022 Tally Room, Australian Electoral Commission.
  4. ↑ Evans, Jake (2024-01-10). "Labor names candidate for looming Dunkley, Victoria by-election". ABC News. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved 2024-01-11.
  5. ↑ "Late Labor MP's husband urged to run in key byelection for Albanese and Dutton". Sydney Morning Herald.
  6. ↑ "Dan Andrews for federal Parliament? Rumours fly as Dunkley reels from death of MP Peta Murphy". Crikey.
  7. ↑ "Jodie Belyea named candidate for Dunkley, Victoria by-election after death of Peta Murphy". ABC News.
  8. ↑ "Make-or-break moment for Dutton as Liberals select Dunkley challenger". Crikey.
  9. ↑ "FINAL VOTE". Twitter. Leonardo Puglisi.
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