Economic impact of 2°C in Senegal

Climate change in Senegal will have wide reaching impacts on many aspects of life in Senegal. Climate change will cause an increase in average temperatures over west Africa by between 1.5 and 4 °C (3 °F and 7 °F) by mid-century, relative to 1986–2005.[1] Projections of rainfall indicate an overall decrease in rainfall and an increase in intense mega-storm events over the Sahel.[2][3] The sea level is expected to rise faster in West Africa than the global average.[4][5] Although Senegal is currently not a major contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions, it is one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change.[6][7]

Extreme drought is impacting agriculture, and causing food and job insecurity. More than 70% of the population is employed in the agricultural sector. Sea level rise and resulting coastal erosion is expected to cause damage to coastal infrastructure and displace a large percentage of the population living in coastal areas. Climate change also has the potential to increase land degradation that will likely increase desertification in eastern Senegal, leading to an expansion of the Sahara.[8]

Climate change adaptation policies and plans are important to help Senegal prepare and adapt. In 2006, Senegal submitted its National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.[9] The NAPA identifies water resources, agriculture, and coastal zones as the country's most vulnerable sectors.[10] In 2015, Senegal released its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC's) that indicated climate change would be treated as a national priority.[10]

Greenhouse gas emissions

Senegal Greenhouse gas emission from 1990–2016

Senegal is currently not a major contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions. The country contributes less than a ton of CO2 per person per year (compared to the global average of over 6 tons per person per year[11]) and placing 150th in the list of countries by CO
2 emissions.[6] However, it is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change.[6][7]

Energy consumption

Most energy in Senegal is produced from fossil fuels,[12] predominantly diesel and gas. A small portion of Senegal's energy comes from renewable energy, such as the Manantali Dam in Mali and a new wind farm in Thiès.

Fossil fuel production

Historically, Senegal was not a major producer of fossil fuels but significant discoveries in natural gas, have led to a major increase in production.[13]

Impacts on the natural environment

Temperature and weather changes

West Africa is expected to be affected by climate change caused by rising temperatures, decreased rainfall, increased mega-storms and rising sea levels. Average temperatures over west Africa are projected to increase by between 1.5 and 4 °C (34.7 and 39.2 °F) by mid-century, relative to 1986–2005.[1] Projections of rainfall indicate an overall decrease in rainfall and an increase in intense mega-storm events over the Sahel.[2][3]

Current/past Köppen climate classification map for Senegal for 1980–2016
Predicted Köppen climate classification map for Senegal for 2071–2100

Sea level rise

The sea level is expected to rise faster in West Africa then the global average.[4][5]

Water resources

The main water resources in Senegal are dependent on rainfall. Rainfall deficits and increased variability due to climate change will likely reduce aquifer recharge rates. Major population centers are already realizing saltwater intrusion into aquifers and arable land. Sea level rise and decreased rainfall will exacerbate salinity issues.[14] As more saltwater intrusion happens, this will threaten fish stock in the country.[8]

Ecosystems

The combination of increased temperatures and decreased rainfall will likely increase desertification in eastern Senegal, leading to expansion of the Sahara.[8]

Impacts on people

Economic impacts

Direct economic loss attribute to disasters in Senegal

Agriculture

Like in other parts of West Africa, the expected extreme weather including more severe drought in the Sahel region is expected to greatly effect food security and agricultural yields.[15]

Climate change is likely to result in reduced yields of key crops, including sorghum and millet, placing pressure on rural livelihoods[16] since agriculture employs about 70% of the population of Senegal. For example, some projections suggest that between 2000 - 2009 there was a 10 -20% reduction in millet and a 5 - 15% reduction in sorghum yields due to climate change.[16] Climate change adaptation for millet and sorghum include options such as increasing crop tolerances to high temperatures during the flowering period[17][18] and increasing cultivars’ thermal time requirement.[18][19]

Moreover, animal herding communities, which include about 2.5 million people in the broader Sahel region, will be severally impacted, because weather variability will lead to increased overgrazing, pressure on water supplies, and subsequent effects on the economic viability of herding communities.[20] For example, in 2017, pressures on lands led to increased demand for manufactured animal feed, causing prices to skyrocket and farmers to sell large portions of their herds.[20]

Impacts on housing

Sea level rise is expected to displace a large percentage of Senegal's population.[6] Nearly 70% of the population lives in coastal zones.[6] The government is already moving communities in high-risk flood areas.[6] Additionally nearly 90% of industry in Senegal is in that same coastal region. Extreme weather events and coastal flooding could jeopardize these major economic centers.[14]

Mitigation and adaptation

Policies and legislation

In 2006, Senegal initiated a National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) as part of the larger trend to create National Adaptation Plans.[15][9] A National Committee on Climate Change was appointed by presidential degree to support the program.[15] Additionally, there is a Climate Fund that is an instrument of climate finance.[14]

International cooperation

In 2015, Senegal released its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC's) that indicated climate change would be treated as a national priority.[10]

Society and culture

Activism

At the same time that these policies are in place, there is evidence that they are not fully being acted on. For example, an article in The Nation focused on climate justice described how a coal fire power plan was built in Bargny, Senegal, a site that had been identified by the government as a displacement location for communities displaced by sea level rise.[6]

References

  1. 1 2 Niang, I; Ruppel, O.C; Abdrabo, M.A; Essel, A; Lennard, C; Padgham, J; Urquhart, P (2014). Africa. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY: Cambridge University Press. pp. 1199–1265.
  2. 1 2 Berthou, S.; Kendon, E. J.; Rowell, D. P.; Roberts, M. J.; Tucker, S.; Stratton, R. A. (2019). "Larger Future Intensification of Rainfall in the West African Sahel in a Convection-Permitting Model". Geophysical Research Letters. 46 (22): 13299–13307. Bibcode:2019GeoRL..4613299B. doi:10.1029/2019GL083544. ISSN 1944-8007.
  3. 1 2 Klein, Cornelia; Taylor, Christopher M. (2020-09-01). "Dry soils can intensify mesoscale convective systems". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 117 (35): 21132–21137. doi:10.1073/pnas.2007998117. ISSN 0027-8424. PMC 7474668. PMID 32817526.
  4. 1 2 "Sea-Level Rise: West Africa Is Sinking". Earth.Org - Past | Present | Future. 2019-09-24. Retrieved 2020-11-26.
  5. 1 2 Croitoru, Lelia; Miranda, Juan José; Sarraf, Maria (2019-03-13). The Cost of Coastal Zone Degradation in West Africa. World Bank, Washington, DC. doi:10.1596/31428. hdl:10986/31428.
  6. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Judt, Daniel (2019-09-24). "In Senegal, Climate Change Is Robbing Thousands of Their Homes". The Nation. ISSN 0027-8378. Retrieved 2020-04-22.
  7. 1 2 team, FPFIS (2018-11-22). "Fossil CO
    2     emissions of all world countries - 2018 Report"    . EU Science Hub - European Commission. Retrieved 2020-11-26.
  8. 1 2 3 "Senegal | UNDP Climate Change Adaptation". www.adaptation-undp.org. Retrieved 2020-04-22.
  9. 1 2 "National Adaptation Plans in focus: Lessons from Senegal | UNDP Climate Change Adaptation". www.adaptation-undp.org. Retrieved 2020-04-22.
  10. 1 2 3 "Review of Current and Planned Adaptation Action in Senegal". International Institute for Sustainable Development. Retrieved 2020-11-26.
  11. ↑ Ge, Mengpin; Friedrich, Johannes; Vigna, Leandro (2020-02-06). "4 Charts Explain Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Countries and Sectors". World Resources Institute. Retrieved 2020-11-27.
  12. ↑ "Power Africa in Senegal | Power Africa | U.S. Agency for International Development". www.usaid.gov. 2020-04-16. Retrieved 2020-04-28.
  13. ↑ "Senegal Energy Outlook – Analysis". IEA. Retrieved 2020-04-28.
  14. 1 2 3 "Climate Risk Profile: Senegal". Climatelinks. USAID. Retrieved 2020-04-22.
  15. 1 2 3 "Senegal factsheet: Climate information and agricultural planning". 2016report.futureclimateafrica.org. Archived from the original on 2020-08-07. Retrieved 2020-04-22.
  16. 1 2 Sultan, Benjamin; Defrance, Dimitri; Iizumi, Toshichika (2019-09-06). "Evidence of crop production losses in West Africa due to historical global warming in two crop models". Scientific Reports. 9 (1): 12834. Bibcode:2019NatSR...912834S. doi:10.1038/s41598-019-49167-0. ISSN 2045-2322. PMC 6731230. PMID 31492929.
  17. ↑ Parkes, B.; Defrance, Dimitri; Sultan, Benjamin; Ciais, P.; Wang, X. H. (2018). "Projected changes in crop yield mean and variability over West Africa in a world 1.5K warmer than the pre-industrial era". Earth System Dynamics. 9 (1): 119–134. doi:10.5194/esd-9-119-2018. ISSN 2190-4979.
  18. 1 2 Guan, Kaiyu; Sultan, Benjamin; Biasutti, Michela; Baron, Christian; Lobell, David B. (2017-01-15). "Assessing climate adaptation options and uncertainties for cereal systems in West Africa". Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 232: 291–305. Bibcode:2017AgFM..232..291G. doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.07.021. ISSN 0168-1923.
  19. ↑ Sultan, B; Roudier, P; Quirion, P; Alhassane, A; Muller, B; Dingkuhn, M; Ciais, P; Guimberteau, M; Traore, S; Baron, C (2013-03-01). "Assessing climate change impacts on sorghum and millet yields in the Sudanian and Sahelian savannas of West Africa". Environmental Research Letters. 8 (1): 014040. Bibcode:2013ERL.....8a4040S. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014040. ISSN 1748-9326.
  20. 1 2 "How climate change is plunging Senegal's herders into poverty". The New Humanitarian. 2018-10-10. Retrieved 2020-11-26.
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