2014 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election

November 4, 2014
Turnout36.1%(Decrease5.6%)
 
Nominee Tom Wolf Tom Corbett
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Mike Stack Jim Cawley
Popular vote 1,920,355 1,575,511
Percentage 54.9% 45.1%

Wolf:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Corbett:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      50%
     No data

Governor before election

Tom Corbett
Republican

Elected Governor

Tom Wolf
Democratic

The 2014 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania, concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Governor Tom Corbett was defeated by Tom Wolf, [1] becoming the first incumbent Pennsylvania governor to lose re-election since William Bigler in 1854, and the first Republican to ever do so.[2][lower-alpha 1] This was the only governorship Democrats flipped in the 2014 midterms, and as of 2023 is the last time the Pennsylvania Governor’s office changed partisan control. Wolf was sworn in on January 20, 2015.

Corbett was considered vulnerable, as reflected in his low approval ratings. An August 2013 Franklin & Marshall College poll found that only 17% of voters thought Corbett was doing an "excellent" or "good" job, only 20% thought he deserved to be reelected, and 62% said the state was "off on the wrong track".[3] Politico called Corbett the most vulnerable incumbent governor in the country,[4] The Washington Post ranked the election as the most likely for a party switch,[5] and the majority of election forecasters rated it "likely Democratic".

Democrats flipped the counties of Erie, Lawrence, Beaver, Alleghany, Greene, Fayette, Cambria, Centre, Clinton, Northumberland, Dauphin, Luzerne, Monroe, Northampton, Carbon, Schuylkill, Lehigh, Berks, Bucks, and Chester.

Meanwhile, this is the last time these counties have voted Democratic in a statewide election: Lawrence, Greene, Fayette, Cambria, Clinton, Northumberland, Carbon, and Schuylkill.

This is the first Pennsylvania gubernatorial election since 1982 in which the winner was of the same party as the incumbent president, and the first time since 1934 this occurred during a Democratic administration. This also remains the last time that a Pennsylvania gubernatorial election has been decided by a single-digit margin, as Democrats have won each subsequent election by large double-digit margins.

Background

Democrats and Republicans have alternated in the governorship of Pennsylvania every eight years from 1950 to 2010.[6] This has been referred to as "the cycle",[7][8] but it was broken with a Democratic Party win in 2014. Pennsylvania has also voted against the party of the sitting president in 18 of the last 19 gubernatorial contests dating back to 1938; Democrats lost 16 of the previous 17 Pennsylvania gubernatorial races with a Democratic president in the White House, a pattern begun in 1860.[9] The last incumbent governor to be defeated for re-election was Democrat William Bigler in 1854. Until 1968, governors could only serve one term; the state constitution now allows governors to serve two consecutive terms.[10] Libertarian nominee Ken Krawchuk failed to file the paperwork to be on the ballot in time and was excluded from the election as a result.

Republican primary

Incumbent Tom Corbett filed to run, as did Bob Guzzardi, an attorney and conservative activist. However, Guzzardi failed to file a statement of financial interests as required by law, after being told by an employee of the State Department that it was unnecessary. Four Republicans, backed by the state Republican Party, sued to have him removed from the race. The case reached the state Supreme Court, which ordered that Guzzardi's name be struck from the ballot.[11] NASCAR Camping World Truck Series veteran Norm Benning backed Governor Corbett during the later half of the NASCAR season with Re-Elect Tom Corbett placed on his truck.

Candidates

Declared

Disqualified

Declined

Endorsements

Tom Corbett
Elected Officials
Individuals
Others

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Tom
Corbett
Bob
Guzzardi
Undecided
Gravis Marketing January 22, 2014 956 ± ? 42% 23% 35%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Tom
Corbett
Someone
else
Undecided
Gravis Marketing January 22, 2014 956 ± ? 38% 41% 22%
Public Policy Polling November 22–25, 2013 491 ± 4.4% 42% 47% 11%
Public Policy Polling March 8–10, 2013 373 ± 5.1% 37% 49% 13%
Public Policy Polling January 4–6, 2013 490 ± 6% 45% 37% 17%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Tom
Corbett
Bruce
Castor
Jim
Gerlach
Mike
Kelly
Tom
Smith
Undecided
Public Policy Polling November 22–25, 2013 491 ± 4.4% 42% 31% 26%
42% 31% 27%
Public Policy Polling March 8–10, 2013 373 ± 5.1% 43% 23% 35%
37% 33% 30%
Harper Polling Archived March 9, 2013, at the Wayback Machine February 27–28, 2013 ± 49.04% 21.07% 29.89%
Public Policy Polling January 4–6, 2013 490 ± 6% 51% 11% 38%

Results

Republican primary results[43]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Tom Corbett (incumbent) Unopposed
Total votes 373,465 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Robert McCord
Individuals
Organizations
Tom Wolf
Individuals
Newspapers

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Hanger
Tom
Knox
Jo Ellen
Litz
Robert
McCord
Kathleen
McGinty
Max
Myers
Ed
Pawl-
owski
Allyson
Schwartz
Joe
Sestak
Tim
Solobay
Mike
Stack
Jack
Wagner
Tom
Wolf
Other Unde-
cided
Muhlenberg May 13–15, 2014 414 ±5% 11% 7% 16% 41% 25%
Harper Archived May 14, 2014, at the Wayback Machine May 12–13, 2014 559 ±4.14% 15% 5% 15% 50% 16%
F&M College May 6–12, 2014 530 ±4.3% 11% 6% 19% 41% 3% 20%
Muhlenberg April 28–30, 2014 417 ±5% 13% 3% 14% 42% 28%
GQR** Mar. 31–Apr. 3, 2014 600 ±? 14% 5% 12% 52% 16%
F&M College March 25–31, 2014 524 ±4.3% 8% 6% 9% 40% 6% 31%
Harper Archived January 16, 2018, at the Wayback Machine Feb. 22–23, 2014 501 ±4.38% 7% 8% 6% 14% 7% 40% 19%
F&M College Feb. 18–23, 2014 548 ±4.2% 1% 3% 1% 9% 36% 1% 48%
PPP Nov. 22–25, 2013 436 ±4.7% 8% 2% 10% 9% 2% 4% 21% 17% 2% 27%
Harper Archived November 13, 2013, at the Wayback Machine Nov. 9–10, 2013 649 ±3.85% 7% 12% 15% 6% 22% 5% 34%
GHY^ Aug. 27–29, 2013 506 ± 4.4% 6% 6% 25% 6% 57%
BSG* Archived March 5, 2016, at the Wayback Machine July 16–18, 2013 800 ±3.46% 10% 15% 34% 11% 30%
Quinnipiac Archived June 13, 2013, at the Wayback Machine May 30–Jun. 4, 2013 460 ± 4.6% 1% 4% 5% 1% 1% 18% 1% 2% 1% 63%
Quinnipiac April 19–24, 2013 547 ± 4.2% 0% 3% 1% 15% 15% 1% 3% 2% 60%
GSG Archived March 6, 2016, at the Wayback Machine March 9–12, 2013 601 ± 4% 1% 5% 5% 3% 18% 15% 3% 1% 2% 47%
1% 7% 7% 3% 21% 3% 2% 2% 54%
12% 31% 7% 49%
GQR** March 2–7, 2013 602 ±3.99% 1% 1% 7% 3% 16% 21% 2% 3% 1% 45%
Harper Archived March 9, 2013, at the Wayback Machine Feb. 27–28, 2013  ? ±? 0.82% 2.88% 7% 18.52% 19.75% 1.23% 49.79%
  • ** Internal poll for the Tom Wolf Campaign
  • ^ Internal poll for the Kathleen McGinty Campaign
  • * Internal poll for the Allyson Schwartz Campaign

Results

Results by county:
  Wolf—80–90%
  Wolf—70–80%
  Wolf—60–70%
  Wolf—50–60%
  Wolf—40–50%
Democratic primary results[43]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Tom Wolf 488,917 57.86%
Democratic Allyson Schwartz 149,027 17.64%
Democratic Rob McCord 142,311 16.84%
Democratic Katie McGinty 64,754 7.66%
Total votes 845,009 100.00%

General election

Candidates

  • Tom Wolf (D); former secretary of the Pennsylvania Department of Revenue
  • Tom Corbett (R); incumbent governor
  • Paul Glover (G); activist
  • Jonathan D. Jewell (I); Independent
  • Ken Krawchuk (L); technology consultant and nominee for governor in 1998 and 2002

Debates

Spending

As of mid-October, Wolf had raised $27.6 million and spent $21.1 million while Corbett had raised $20.6 million and spent $19.3 million. The two campaigns had run over 21,000 television ads, costing over $13 million.[111]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[112] Likely D (flip) November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball[113] Safe D (flip) November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report[114] Likely D (flip) November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics[115] Likely D (flip) November 3, 2014

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Tom
Corbett (R)
Tom
Wolf (D)
Other Undecided
Muhlenberg College October 27–29, 2014 409 ± 5% 39% 51% 6% 4%
Magellan Strategies October 27–28, 2014 1,433 ± 2.6% 43% 50% 7%
Harper Polling Archived February 8, 2016, at the Wayback Machine October 26–27, 2014 680 ± 3.76% 40% 50% 10%
Franklin & Marshall October 20–26, 2014 326 LV ± 5.1% 40% 53% 1% 5%
738 RV ± 3.4% 37% 53% 1% 9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014 3,111 ± 3% 39% 52% 0% 8%
Magellan Strategies October 13–14, 2014 1,131 ± 2.9% 42% 49% 9%
Quinnipiac University September 30 – October 5, 2014 907 ± 3.3% 38% 55% 2% 5%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20 – October 1, 2014 3,283 ± 2% 41% 50% 0% 9%
Robert Morris University September 26–29, 2014 500 ± 4% 34% 57% 9%
Mercyhurst University September 15–24, 2014 479 ± 4.48% 28% 43% 2% 27%
Franklin & Marshall September 15–22, 2014 231 LV ± 6.4% 37% 57% 2% 5%
520 RV ± 4.3% 33% 54% 4% 9%
Magellan Strategies Archived September 26, 2014, at the Wayback Machine September 17–18, 2014 1,120 ± 2.9% 40% 49% 11%
Muhlenberg College September 16–18, 2014 429 ± 5% 33% 54% 4% 9%
Quinnipiac University September 3–8, 2014 1,161 ± 2.9% 35% 59% 2% 4%
Harper Polling Archived January 10, 2016, at the Wayback Machine September 2–3, 2014 665 ± 3.2% 41% 52% 7%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18 – September 2, 2014 3,560 ± 2% 39% 50% 2% 10%
Robert Morris University August 18–22, 2014 500 ± 4.5% 25% 56% 20%
Franklin & Marshall August 18–25, 2014 520 ± 4.3% 24% 49% 1% 25%
Magellan Strategies Archived September 12, 2014, at the Wayback Machine July 30–31, 2014 1,214 ± 2.83% 38% 50% 12%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 2014 4,150 ± ? 39% 52% 2% 7%
Franklin & Marshall June 23–29, 2014 502 ± 4.4% 25% 47% 1% 27%
Quinnipiac University May 29 – June 2, 2014 1,308 ± 2.7% 33% 53% 1% 13%
Public Policy Polling May 30 – June 1, 2014 835 ± 3.4% 30% 55% 15%
Rasmussen Reports May 27–28, 2014 750 ± 4% 31% 51% 4% 14%
Quinnipiac University Archived February 27, 2014, at the Wayback Machine February 19–24, 2014 1,405 ± 2.6% 33% 52% 1% 13%
Gravis Marketing January 22–23, 2014 717 ± 4% 34% 41% 24%
Quinnipiac University Archived December 20, 2013, at the Wayback Machine December 11–16, 2013 1,061 ± 3% 37% 44% 1% 19%
Public Policy Polling November 22–25, 2013 693 ± 3.7% 32% 44% 24%
Quinnipiac University March 6–11, 2013 1,116 ± 2.9% 39% 39% 2% 20%
Public Policy Polling March 8–10, 2013 504 ± 4.4% 33% 42% 25%
Public Policy Polling January 4–6, 2013 675 ± 3.8% 41% 29% 30%
Hypothetical polling
With Corbett
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Tom
Corbett (R)
John
Hanger (D)
Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University Archived February 27, 2014, at the Wayback Machine February 19–24, 2014 1,405 ± 2.6% 37% 40% 4% 20%
Quinnipiac University Archived December 20, 2013, at the Wayback Machine December 11–16, 2013 1,061 ± 3% 42% 37% 2% 19%
Public Policy Polling November 22–25, 2013 693 ± 3.7% 32% 51% 16%
Quinnipiac University March 6–11, 2013 1,116 ± 2.9% 42% 41% 2% 15%
Public Policy Polling March 8–10, 2013 504 ± 4.4% 34% 41% 25%
Public Policy Polling January 4–6, 2013 675 ± 3.8% 41% 37% 21%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Tom
Corbett (R)
Kathleen
Kane (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling January 4–6, 2013 675 ± 3.8% 42% 42% 16%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Tom
Corbett (R)
Tom
Knox (D)
Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University March 6–11, 2013 1,116 ± 2.9% 40% 39% 1% 19%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Tom
Corbett (R)
Robert
McCord (D)
Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University Archived February 27, 2014, at the Wayback Machine February 19–24, 2014 1,405 ± 2.6% 36% 43% 4% 17%
Gravis Marketing January 22–23, 2014 717 ± 4% 36% 48% 16%
Quinnipiac University Archived December 20, 2013, at the Wayback Machine December 11–16, 2013 1,061 ± 3% 39% 42% 2% 18%
Public Policy Polling November 22–25, 2013 693 ± 3.7% 31% 50% 18%
Quinnipiac University Archived June 13, 2013, at the Wayback Machine May 30–June 4, 2013 1,032 ± 3.1% 35% 43% 1% 20%
Quinnipiac University April 19–24, 2013 1,235 ± 2.8% 35% 44% 1% 20%
Quinnipiac University March 6–11, 2013 1,116 ± 2.9% 42% 38% 1% 19%
Public Policy Polling March 8–10, 2013 504 ± 4.4% 34% 45% 21%
Public Policy Polling January 4–6, 2013 675 ± 3.8% 41% 35% 24%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Tom
Corbett (R)
Kathleen
McGinty (D)
Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University Archived February 27, 2014, at the Wayback Machine February 19–24, 2014 1,405 ± 2.6% 38% 40% 3% 18%
Quinnipiac University Archived December 20, 2013, at the Wayback Machine December 11–16, 2013 1,061 ± 3% 37% 44% 1% 18%
Public Policy Polling November 22–25, 2013 693 ± 3.7% 32% 47% 21%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Tom
Corbett (R)
Michael
Nutter (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling January 4–6, 2013 675 ± 3.8% 41% 38% 21%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Tom
Corbett (R)
Ed
Pawlowski (D)
Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University Archived December 20, 2013, at the Wayback Machine December 11–16, 2013 1,061 ± 3% 39% 41% 2% 18%
Public Policy Polling November 22–25, 2013 693 ± 3.7% 33% 45% 22%
Quinnipiac University March 6–11, 2013 1,116 ± 2.9% 38% 44% 2% 16%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Tom
Corbett (R)
Ed
Rendell (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling January 4–6, 2013 675 ± 3.8% 40% 46% 14%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Tom
Corbett (R)
Allyson
Schwartz (D)
Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University Archived February 27, 2014, at the Wayback Machine February 19–24, 2014 1,405 ± 2.6% 38% 44% 3% 15%
Gravis Marketing January 22–23, 2014 717 ± 4% 35% 44% 21%
Quinnipiac University Archived December 20, 2013, at the Wayback Machine December 11–16, 2013 1,061 ± 3% 37% 45% 1% 16%
Public Policy Polling November 22–25, 2013 693 ± 3.7% 33% 48% 20%
Benenson Strategy Group Archived March 5, 2016, at the Wayback Machine August 6–8, 2013 600 ± 4% 41% 49% 10%
Quinnipiac University Archived June 13, 2013, at the Wayback Machine May 30–June 4, 2013 1,032 ± 3.1% 35% 45% 1% 19%
Public Opinion Strategies Archived March 5, 2016, at the Wayback Machine April 30–May 2, 2013 600 ± 4% 34% 46% 20%
Quinnipiac University April 19–24, 2013 1,235 ± 2.8% 34% 47% 2% 17%
Quinnipiac University March 6–11, 2013 1,116 ± 2.9% 39% 42% 1% 18%
Public Policy Polling March 8–10, 2013 504 ± 4.4% 34% 45% 21%
Benenson Strategy Group January 15–17, 2013 600 ± 4% 42% 50% 9%
Public Policy Polling January 4–6, 2013 675 ± 3.8% 41% 34% 25%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Tom
Corbett (R)
Joe
Sestak (D)
Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University April 19–24, 2013 1,235 ± 2.8% 34% 48% 1% 17%
Quinnipiac University March 6–11, 2013 1,116 ± 2.9% 38% 47% 1% 14%
Public Policy Polling March 8–10, 2013 504 ± 4.4% 34% 45% 21%
Public Policy Polling January 4–6, 2013 675 ± 3.8% 42% 36% 23%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Tom
Corbett (R)
Mike
Stack (D)
Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University March 6–11, 2013 1,116 ± 2.9% 39% 40% 1% 20%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Tom
Corbett (R)
Jack
Wagner (D)
Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University Archived February 27, 2014, at the Wayback Machine February 19–24, 2014 1,405 ± 2.6% 37% 44% 3% 15%
Quinnipiac University Archived December 20, 2013, at the Wayback Machine December 11–16, 2013 1,061 ± 3% 36% 48% 1% 15%
Public Policy Polling November 22–25, 2013 693 ± 3.7% 30% 50% 20%
With Gerlach
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jim
Gerlach (R)
Allyson
Schwartz (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling November 22–25, 2013 693 ± 3.7% 31% 39% 29%
With Guzzardi
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bob
Guzzardi (R)
Robert
McCord (D)
Other Undecided
Gravis Marketing January 22–23, 2014 717 ± 4% 31% 43% 26%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bob
Guzzardi (R)
Allyson
Schwartz (D)
Other Undecided
Gravis Marketing January 22–23, 2014 717 ± 4% 33% 42% 25%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bob
Guzzardi (R)
Tom
Wolf (D)
Other Undecided
Gravis Marketing January 22–23, 2014 717 ± 4% 30% 38% 31%
With Kelly
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mike
Kelly (R)
Allyson
Schwartz (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling November 22–25, 2013 693 ± 3.7% 33% 41% 27%

Results

2014 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election[116]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Tom Wolf
Mike Stack
1,920,355 54.93% +9.42%
Republican Tom Corbett (incumbent)
Jim Cawley (incumbent)
1,575,511 45.07% -9.42%
Total votes 3,495,866 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Corbett won 10 of 18 congressional districts, despite losing statewide to Wolf, though at the time most of the districts were gerrymanders drawn by Republican legislators.[117] Wolf won the 6th, 7th and 8th districts, which all elected Republicans to the House.

District Corbett Wolf Representative
1st 16% 84% Bob Brady
2nd 8% 92% Chaka Fattah
3rd 54% 46% Mike Kelly
4th 56% 44% Scott Perry
5th 51% 49% Glenn Thompson
6th 49% 51% Jim Gerlach
Ryan Costello
7th 48% 52% Patrick Meehan
8th 48% 52% Mike Fitzpatrick
9th 55% 45% Bill Shuster
10th 59% 41% Tom Marino
11th 53% 47% Lou Barletta
12th 53% 47% Keith Rothfus
13th 30% 70% Brendan Boyle
14th 30% 70% Mike Doyle
15th 50% 50% Charlie Dent
16th 54% 46% Joe Pitts
17th 39% 61% Matt Cartwright
18th 54% 46% Tim Murphy

See also

Notes

  1. In the mid-1800s, governors served three-year terms, and were limited to serving no more than six years of every nine. Beginning with the election of 1874, they were limited to one four-year term. A change to the state constitution in 1968 permitted governors to serve two consecutive four-year terms, then wait at least one term before serving again, with no lifetime limit.

References

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  3. "Franklin & Marshall College poll" (PDF). Franklin & Marshall College. August 28, 2013. Archived from the original (PDF) on September 27, 2013. Retrieved November 13, 2013.
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  7. Madonna, Terry. "The Eight-Year Cycle - Believe It!". Franklin & Marshall College. Archived from the original on February 1, 2014. Retrieved January 28, 2014.
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