Stormy Marmot is a yellow-bellied marmot of the Rocky Mountain region, living in Aurora, Colorado. Every February 2, on Groundhog Day, Stormy makes a prediction for the remainder of winter.

History

Stormy is a yellow-bellied marmot, a member of the squirrel family.[1] He is one of the few famous groundhogs west of the Mississippi.[2] Stormy is trotted out once a year to check for his shadow and make a weather prediction.[3][4]

Concrete Driveway in Colorado claims to rely on Stormy's forecasts to prepare their fleet.[5]

Punxsutawney Phil loyalists have been known to disparage Stormy.[6]

Flatiron Freddy also represents Groundhog Day prognostication in Colorado. He makes his home at Chautauqua Park in Boulder, CO.[7][8]

Past predictions

YearPrediction
2023 6 more weeks of winter[9][10][11]
2022 Early spring[12][13][14]
2021 6 more weeks of winter[15][16]
2020 6 more weeks of winter[17][18]
2019 6 more weeks of winter[19][20][21]
2018 Early spring[22][23]
2017 Early spring[24][25][26][27]
2016 Early spring[28][29][30]
2015 Early spring[31][32][33]
2014 6 more weeks of winter[34][35][36]
2013 6 more weeks of winter[37][38][39][3][40]
2012 Early spring[41][42][43]
2011 6 more weeks of winter[44][45][46][47]
2010 6 more weeks of winter[48][49]
2008 6 more weeks of winter[50][51]
2006 Early spring[52][53]

Accuracy

Statistical analysis of groundhog predictions show that Stormy Marmot and Poor Richard (a groundhog based in York, Pennsylvania) have the best correlation to observed weather trends. "When Stormy Marmot predicts an early spring, we can expect March to be on average 6 °F warmer, and April to be 2.5 °F warmer. When Poor Richard predicts an early spring, we can expect February to be 4 °F warmer and March to be 8 °F warmer."[54] Dover Doug, a groundhog from Dover, Pennsylvania, was also noted for having a strong correlation between the sign of his shadow and the arrival of spring conditions.[55]

According to analysis by FiveThirtyEight, Stormy has a 70% prediction accuracy in his own region, tied by General Beauregard Lee for the southeast and beaten only by Snohomish Slew, a bullfrog in the northwest, who has an 80% accuracy. Punxsutawney Phil only scored 50% for his region, the northeast.[56]

References

  1. ↑ "Wild(life) Weather", Curiosity Seldom Pays, Oct 9, 2014
  2. ↑ "Move over, Phil: Here are 10 other groundhogs that weigh in on the forecast", Fox Weather, Feb 1, 2022
  3. 1 2 "Your rodent rear is mine, Phil!", Aurora Magazine, Feb 6, 2013
  4. ↑ "Groundhog’s Day: Colorado Movers Style", Exodus Moving & Storage, Feb 1, 2012
  5. ↑ "Concrete Driveway"
  6. ↑ "Groundhog Day story repeats itself", The Denver Post, Feb 1, 2014
  7. ↑ "Happy Groundhog Day, Colorado-Style", The Denver Post, Feb 2, 2013
  8. ↑ "Groundhogs in Colorado"
  9. ↑ "Groundhog Day 2023 Predictions"
  10. ↑ "Groundhog Day 2023"
  11. ↑ "Making a lasting impact", Herald-Star, Ross Gallabrese, Feb 4, 2023
  12. ↑ "Rodent Roundup: Why we look to groundhogs for winter outlooks" Grace Lowe and Olivia Lawrence, February 2, 2022
  13. ↑ "Groundhog Day 2022 Predictions"
  14. ↑ "Groundhog Day 2022"
  15. ↑ "Groundhog Day 2021 Predictions"
  16. ↑ "Groundhog Day 2021"
  17. ↑ "Groundhogs Around the World: Stormy Marmot"
  18. ↑ "Groundhog Day 2020"
  19. ↑ "Countdown to Groundhog Day", February 2, 2019
  20. ↑ "2019 Groundhog Day Predictions", February 2, 2019
  21. ↑ "Groundhog Day 2019"
  22. ↑ "Countdown to Groundhog Day", February 2, 2019
  23. ↑ "Groundhog Day 2018"
  24. ↑ "Did The Groundhog See His Shadow Today", May 17, 2017
  25. ↑ "Colorado’s Groundhog Looks to Predict an Early Spring", KTRR Tri 102.5 FM Loveland, Feb 1, 2017
  26. ↑ "How Accurate are Groundhog Day Predictions? (2018 Update)", Jeremy Neiman, Jan 31, 2018
  27. ↑ "Groundhog Day 2017"
  28. ↑ "The Groundhog Saw His Shadow, but Will He be Right?", KORD FM 102.7 Richland, Feb 2, 2016
  29. ↑ "It’s Groundhog Day!!", Hoosier-Doughty, Feb 2, 2016
  30. ↑ "Groundhog Day 2016"
  31. ↑ "The Eternal Life Disaster", Nathan Gast, Feb 3, 2015
  32. ↑ "Happy Groundhog Day 2015", Mrs. Glock's Class, Feb 2, 2015
  33. ↑ "Groundhog Day 2015"
  34. ↑ "Happy Groundhog Day!!!", Mrs. Glock's Class, Feb 4, 2014
  35. ↑ "Are You Letting a Groundhog Dictate Strategy?", Brooks Bell Group, Feb 6, 2014
  36. ↑ "Groundhog Day 2014"
  37. ↑ "Happy Groundhog Day, Colorado-Style", The Denver Post, Feb 2, 2013
  38. ↑ "Groundhog Day - Feb. 2 - Early Spring or 6 More Weeks of Winter????", Talk Graphics, Feb 2, 2014
  39. ↑ "The largest Groundhog Day celebration is held in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania", Julie Roberts, Feb 2, 2013
  40. ↑ "Groundhog Day 2013"
  41. ↑ "The largest Groundhog Day celebration is held in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania", Julie Roberts, Feb 2, 2013
  42. ↑ "Michigan’s Official Groundhog Predicts An Early Spring", WWJ CBS 62 Detroit, Feb 2, 2012
  43. ↑ "Groundhog Day 2012"
  44. ↑ "The largest Groundhog Day celebration is held in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania", Julie Roberts, Feb 2, 2013
  45. ↑ "Happy Groundhog Day!", Steve Mandich Blog, Feb 2, 2011
  46. ↑ "Predicting the weather is tricky business", Crossville Chronicle, Feb 3, 2011
  47. ↑ "Groundhog Day 2011"
  48. ↑ "The largest Groundhog Day celebration is held in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania", Julie Roberts, Feb 2, 2013
  49. ↑ "Groundhog Day 2010"
  50. ↑ "Groundhogs Around the World: Stormy Marmot"
  51. ↑ "Groundhog Day 2008"
  52. ↑ "Groundhogs Around the World: Stormy Marmot"
  53. ↑ "Groundhog Day 2006"
  54. ↑ "How Accurate are Groundhog Day Predictions?", Jeremy Neiman, Jan 27, 2017
  55. ↑ "How Accurate are Groundhog Day Predictions? (2018 Update)", Jeremy Neiman, Jan 31, 2018
  56. ↑ " Groundhogs Do Not Make Good Meteorologists, FiveThirtyEight, Feb 1, 2022
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