The succession of power in China since 1949 takes place in the context of a one-party state under the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).[1] Despite the guarantee of universal franchise in the constitution, the appointment of the Paramount leader lies largely in the hands of his predecessor and the powerful factions that control the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party.

The appointment of the leader occurred after two five year terms in accordance with the Constitution of the People's Republic of China from 1982 to 2018.[2] This was changed to unlimited terms during the first plenary session of the 13th National People's Congress in March 2018.

In October 2022, Xi Jinping was re-elected as General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party for a precedent-breaking third term of paramount leader after Mao Zedong's death.[3]

Structure of power

The paramount leader (supreme leader) of China holds these three official titles:

General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party
Head of the ruling party
President of the People's Republic of China
Nominal head of state
Chairman of the Central Military Commission
Commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces (People's Liberation Army)

In the past it was possible for the Paramount leader to wield absolute power without holding any of the highest offices. This was the case with Deng Xiaoping who was the undisputed leader from 1978 to 1989 without holding any of the highest offices of party and state. Since his retirement, power has become more structured with the leader holding all three of the previously mentioned offices.

History

The concept of Paramount leader was instituted during the era of Mao Zedong who was Chairman of the Chinese Communist Party for life. The position was further established under Deng Xiaoping, however the term Paramount leader has not been officially attributed to any other leaders. Since the retirement of Deng Xiaoping by resigning from Chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Communist Party in 1989, political power in China has been held collectively by the members of the Politburo Standing Committee of the Chinese Communist Party. The General Secretary may be best described as primus inter pares, first among equals. Because the proceedings of this body are considered a state secret, the inner workings of Politburo are not made public. It is clear, however, that decision making has become consensus driven and that no single figure can any longer act unilaterally as in the days of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping.[4]

Constitutional mechanism

Constitutional power in the People's Republic of China is held by the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CCCPC). Although this group of approximately 300 members does not have power in the same way as a traditional legislative body, the most important and senior officials of the Chinese government are all members.

Within the CCCPC is the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party. This body is a group of 25 individuals (currently 24 men and one woman) who govern the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Theoretically, the Politburo is elected by the CCCPC; however, in practice any new member of the Politburo is chosen by the current members. Politburo members hold positions in China's national government and regional positions of power simultaneously thereby consolidating the CCP's power.

In the case of key policy decisions, topics are addressed in the Politburo which then determines actions to be taken by the national and local government. The policy direction for the entire country rests in the hands of these 25 individuals who meet together once a month. Admission into the Politburo is extremely difficult. Tight control over the body is exercised by current members who vet potential members carefully to maintain the balance of power. Good political relationships within the Politburo are essential for admittance into the group. All members of the Politburo are elected for five year terms.[5]

Members of the Political Bureau of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party
[6]
Name Hanzi 19th POL Birth PM Birthplace Education No. of offices Ref.
Cai Qi 蔡奇 Old 1955 1975 Fujian Graduate
Three
 [7]
Chen Jining 陈吉宁 New 1964 1984 Liaoning Graduate
One
  • Party office
    • Secretary, Shanghai Municipal Party Committee
 [8]
Chen Min'er 陈敏尔 Old 1960 1982 Zhejiang Graduate
One
  • Party office
    • Secretary, Tianjin Municipal Party Committee
 [9]
Chen Wenqing 陈文清 New 1960 1983 Sichuan Graduate
One
 [10]
Ding Xuexiang 丁薛祥 Old 1962 1984 Jiangsu Graduate
One
 [11]
He Lifeng 何立峰 New 1955 1981 Guangdong Graduate
Two
 [12]
He Weidong 何卫东 New 1957 1978 Fujian Undergraduate
Two
 [13]
Huang Kunming 黄坤明 Old 1956 1976 Fujian Graduate
One
  • Party office
    • Secretary, Guangdong Provincial Party Committee
 [14]
Li Ganjie 李干杰 New 1964 1984 Hunan Graduate
One
 [15]
Li Hongzhong 李鸿忠 Old 1956 1976 Shenyang Graduate
One
 [16]
Li Qiang 李强 Old 1959 1983 Zhejiang Graduate
Eight
 [17]
Li Shulei 李书磊 New 1964 1986 Henan Graduate
One
 [18]
Li Xi 李希 Old 1956 1982 Gansu Graduate
Two
 [19]
Liu Guozhong 刘国中 New 1962 1986 Heilongjiang Graduate
One
 [20]
Ma Xingrui 马兴瑞 New 1959 1988 Heilongjiang Graduate
One
  • Party office
    • Secretary, Xinjiang Provincial Party Committee
 [21]
Shi Taifeng 石泰峰 New 1956 1982 Shanxi Graduate
Two
 [22]
Wang Huning 王沪宁 Old 1955 1984 Shanghai Graduate
One
 [23]
Wang Yi 王毅 New 1953 1981 Beijing Graduate
Two
 [24]
Xi Jinping 习近平 Old 1953 1974 Beijing Graduate
Eleven
 [25]
Yin Li 尹力 New 1962 1980 Shandong Graduate
One
  • Party office
    • Secretary, Beijing City Party Committee
 [26]
Yuan Jiajun 袁家军 New 1962 1992 Jilin Graduate
One
  • Party office
    • Secretary, Chongqing Municipal Party Committee
 [27]
Zhang Guoqing 张国清 New 1964 1984 Henan Graduate
One
 [28]
Zhang Youxia 张又侠 Old 1950 1969 Beijing Graduate
Two
 [29]
Zhao Leji 赵乐际 Old 1957 1975 Shandong Graduate
One
 [30]

Power within the Politburo is further concentrated in the Politburo Standing Committee of the Chinese Communist Party. This group of seven members meets together weekly and is led by the General Secretary.[5]

Members of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party
[31]
Rank Portrait Name Hanzi 19th PSC Birth PM Birthplace Academic attainment No. of offices Ref.
1 Xi Jinping Xi Jinping 习近平 Old 1953 1974 Beijing
Graduate
Eleven
 [25]
2 Li Qiang Li Qiang 李强 New 1959 1983 Zhejiang
Graduate
Eight
 [17]
3 Zhao Leji Zhao Leji 赵乐际 Old 1957 1975 Shandong
Graduate
One
 [30]
4 Wang Huning Wang Huning 王沪宁 Old 1955 1984 Shanghai
Graduate
One
 [23]
5 Cai Qi Cai Qi 蔡奇 New 1955 1975 Fujian
Graduate
Three
 [7]
6 Ding Xuexiang Ding Xuexiang 丁薛祥 New 1962 1984 Jiangsu
Graduate
One
 [11]
7 Li Xi Li Xi 李希 New 1956 1982 Gansu
Graduate
Two
 [19]


Executive leadership in the PRC is elected through a process that can best be described as an indirect election. In this system, only one candidate stands for the election of any given position. Although other candidates cannot run formally, write-in candidates are permitted. In 2013, when the 12th National People's Congress elected CCP general secretary Xi Jinping as president, 2952 members voted in favour and one against, with three abstentions. Similarly, in the 2008 election, Hu Jintao, then-General Secretary, President and Chairman of the Central Military Commission, were re-elected by a landslide. Of the 2985 members of the 11th National People's Congress, only 3 voted against Hu Jintao, with another 5 abstaining.

Practical mechanism

In practical terms, the National Congress provides a rubber stamp on a decision that is made by the Politburo and the Standing Committee. The transition of leadership can take several months. For instance, when Hu Jintao took over power from Jiang Zemin, the transition of power stretched out almost two years. Listed below are the dates on which Hu was appointed to each office:

  • General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (November 2002)
  • President of the People's Republic of China (March 2003)
  • Chairman of the Central Military Commission (September 2004)

Usually the office of Chairman of the Central Military Commission is the last office handed over by the previous leader, in order to secure political influence and ensure political continuity.

Most recent transition

Appointments to key offices are the best predictor of whom the next leader will be. The office of Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC) is seen by many as the last stop before becoming the top leader of China. Appointment to Vice Chairman position is so crucial that when Xi Jinping, the current CCP General Secretary, failed to achieve that office at the 4th Plenum in 2009, many analysts suggested that he had fallen from favor and would not be the next Chinese leader. His ultimate appointment to Vice Chairman of the CMC was seen as evidence that he had begun to consolidate his power and would ultimately succeed Hu Jintao when his term expired in 2012 at the 18th Party Congress.[32]

Absent a transparent electoral process, the appointment to key positions is the only way to predict future leadership in China. Note in the table below, the path that Xi Jinping followed from a low-level party official at the age of 30 to his current position of the leader of the most populous country in the world.

Xi Jinping's Corresponding Political and Military Postings, 1983-2007

YearsPolitical PositionMilitary Position
1983-85First secretary, Zhengding County, Hebei Province party committeeFirst political commissar and first secretary of the Party committee of People's Armed Forces Department of Zhengding County, Hebei Province
1988-90Secretary of the CCP Ningde Prefectural Committee, Fujian ProvinceFirst secretary of the Party committee of Ningde Sub-Military Area Command
1990-93Secretary of the CCP Fuzhou Municipal Committee and chairman of the Standing Committee of the Fuzhou Municipal People's CongressFirst secretary of the Party committee of Fuzhou Sub-Military Area Command
1995-96Deputy secretary of the CCP Fujian Provincial Committee, secretary of the CCP Fuzhou Municipal Committee and chairman of the Standing Committee of the Fuzhou Municipal People's CongressFirst secretary of the Party committee of Fuzhou Sub-Military Area Command
1996-99Deputy secretary of the CCP Fujian Provincial CommitteeFirst political commissar of the anti-aircraft artillery reserve division of Fujian Provincial Military Area Command
1999-2000Deputy secretary of the CCP Fujian Provincial Committee and acting governor of Fujian ProvinceVice director of commission for national defense mobilization of Nanjing Military Area Command, director of Fujian provincial commission for national defense mobilization, first political commissar of antiaircraft artillery reserve division of Fujian Provincial Military Area Command
2000-02Deputy secretary of the CCP Fujian Provincial Committee and governor of Fujian ProvinceVice director of commission for national defense mobilization of Nanjing Military Area Command, director of Fujian provincial commission for national defense mobilization, first political commissar of antiaircraft artillery reserve division of Fujian Provincial Military Area Command
2002Deputy secretary of the CCP Zhejiang Provincial Committee and acting governor of Zhejiang ProvinceVice director of commission for national defense mobilization of Nanjing Military Area Command, director of Zhejiang provincial commission for national defense mobilization
2002-03Secretary of the CCP Zhejiang Provincial Committee and acting governor of Zhejiang ProvinceFirst secretary of the Party committee of Zhejiang Provincial Military Area Command, vice director of commission for national defense mobilization of Nanjing Military Area Command, director of Zhejiang provincial commission for national defense mobilization
2003-07Secretary of the CCP Zhejiang Provincial Committee and chairman of the Standing Committee of the Zhejiang Provincial People's CongressFirst secretary of the Party committee of Zhejiang Provincial Military Area Command
2007Secretary of the CCP Shanghai Municipal CommitteeFirst secretary of the Party committee of Shanghai Garrison

[33]

As long as the Chinese government remains secretive about the inner workings of the CCP Politburo, past behavior will continue to be the most effective tool for predicting future appointments. In this context, the appointment of a candidate to key offices is still the best indicator of their future role. For example, the appointment of Xi Jinping as the vice chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Chinese Communist Party signposted with a reasonable amount of confidence that he would be the next top leader of the People's Republic of China.

Xi Jinping era

This section is an excerpt from Generations of Chinese leadership § Sixth generation.[edit]

The sixth generation of leaders had been expected to come to power at the 20th Party Congress in 2022. However, following Xi Jinping's consolidation of power at the 19th Party Congress, the future of the "sixth generation" was cast into doubt as clear successor figures failed to be named to senior leadership posts, particularly the Politburo Standing Committee. Xi Jinping was re-elected as the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party in 2022.

In preceding years, Hu Chunhua (a Vice-Premier from 2018 to 2023) was seen as a possible core figure. Hu and Sun Zhengcai were the only Politburo members named at the 18th Party Congress in 2012 who were born after 1960, making their further advancement seem like a certainty, but Sun was purged before the 19th Party Congress and Hu was dropped from the Politburo at the 20th. U.S.-based newspaper Duo Wei Times also listed four figures who have since fallen from grace, former Fujian Governor Su Shulin, former President of the Supreme People's Court Zhou Qiang, former Heilongjiang Party Secretary Zhang Qingwei, and former Minister of Natural Resources Lu Hao, as other potential figures in this generation of leadership. Others in this rough age group ascending in the ranks include Zhang Guoqing (now a Vice-Premier) and Chen Min'er (party secretary of Chongqing and then Tianjin).[34]

Ding Xuexiang is the only person from this age bracket to have reached the Standing Committee, but the 20th Politburo includes eight other members born between 1960 and 1964.

Xi Jinping has not named his successor as paramount leader of the CCP which broke from the precedent previously established of naming the successor at the start of the second term of the paramount leader.[35] This is seen as an attempt by Xi to further consolidate power as the leader of China and maintain a strong hold on his position of power.[36] Xi’s lack of a named successor reversed the previously perceived notion of intraparty democracy in the naming system of leadership succession in the CCP. [37]


See also

References

  1. ↑ Folsom, Ralph (1992). Law and Politics in the People's Republic of China. West Group. pp. 76–77. ISBN 0-314-00999-X.
  2. ↑ "Constitution of the People's Republic of China". National People's Congress. Archived from the original on June 9, 2007. Retrieved 26 March 2011.
  3. ↑ "China's leader Xi Jinping secures third term and stacks inner circle with loyalists". The Guardian. 2022-10-23. Retrieved 2022-10-23.
  4. ↑ "In China, democracy is only in the Politburo: WikiLeaks". Hindustan Times. December 19, 2010. Retrieved 5 August 2021.
  5. 1 2 Miller, Alice (28 June 2010). "The 18th Central Committee Politburo: A Quixotic, Foolhardy, Rashly Speculative, But Nonetheless Ruthlessly Reasoned Projection" (PDF). China Leadership Monitor. 33. Retrieved 26 March 2011.
  6. ↑ "The 20th Politburo". South China Morning Post. 21 November 2022. Archived from the original on 15 March 2023. Retrieved 21 July 2023.
  7. 1 2 Li, Cheng. "Cai Qi 蔡奇" (PDF). Brookings Institution. Archived from the original (PDF) on 31 May 2023. Retrieved 21 July 2023.
  8. ↑ "Chen Jining appointed Shanghai Party chief". China Daily. 28 October 2022. Archived from the original on 22 July 2023. Retrieved 22 July 2023.
    "Chen Jining 陈吉宁". China Vitae. Archived from the original on 22 July 2023. Retrieved 22 July 2023.
  9. ↑ Li, Cheng. "Chen Min'er 陈敏尔" (PDF). Brookings Institution. Archived from the original (PDF) on 31 May 2023. Retrieved 22 July 2023.
  10. ↑ "Brief introductions of members of CPC central leading bodies". State Council of the People's Republic of China. 24 October 2022. Archived from the original on 22 July 2023. Retrieved 22 July 2023.
    "Chen Wenqing 陈文清". China Vitae. Archived from the original on 22 July 2023. Retrieved 22 July 2023.
  11. 1 2 Li, Cheng. "Ding Xuexiang 丁薛祥" (PDF). Brookings Institution. Archived from the original (PDF) on 30 May 2023. Retrieved 21 July 2023.
  12. ↑ Pei, Minxin (1 June 2023). "Xi Jinping's New Economic Team and Government Re-organization". China Leadership Monitor. Archived from the original on 22 July 2023. Retrieved 22 July 2023.
    "He Lifeng 何立峰". China Vitae. Archived from the original on 22 July 2023. Retrieved 22 July 2023.
  13. ↑ Jiayao, Li (11 March 2023). "He Weidong -- Vice Chairman of the CPC Central Military Commission". China Military. Archived from the original on 22 July 2023. Retrieved 22 July 2023.
  14. ↑ Li, Cheng. "Huang Kunming 黄坤明" (PDF). Brookings Institution. Archived from the original (PDF) on 31 May 2023. Retrieved 22 July 2023.
  15. ↑ "China puts scientist in charge of Communist Party's human resources department". South China Morning Post. 27 April 2023. Archived from the original on 27 April 2023. Retrieved 22 July 2023.
    "Li Ganjie 李干杰". China Vitae. Archived from the original on 22 July 2023. Retrieved 22 July 2023.
  16. ↑ "Brief introduction of vice chairpersons, secretary-general of 14th NPC Standing Committee". People's Daily. 11 March 2023. Archived from the original on 22 July 2023. Retrieved 22 July 2023.
    "Li Hongzhong 李鸿忠". China Vitae. Archived from the original on 22 July 2023. Retrieved 22 July 2023.
  17. 1 2 Li, Cheng. "Li Qiang 李强" (PDF). Brookings Institution. Archived from the original (PDF) on 11 July 2023. Retrieved 21 July 2023.
  18. ↑ Mai, Jun (13 March 2023). "Politburo newcomer and Xi protégé confirmed as China's new propaganda chief before presenting summary of party congress". South China Morning Post. Archived from the original on 27 October 2022. Retrieved 22 July 2023.
    "Li Shulei 李书磊". China Vitae. Archived from the original on 22 July 2023. Retrieved 22 July 2023.
  19. 1 2 Li, Cheng. "Li Xi 李希" (PDF). Brookings Institution. Archived from the original (PDF) on 28 October 2022. Retrieved 21 July 2023.
  20. ↑ "Liu Guozhong -- Vice premier". State Council of the People's Republic of China. 13 March 2023. Archived from the original on 22 July 2023. Retrieved 22 July 2023.
    "Liu Guozhong 刘国中". China Vitae. Archived from the original on 22 July 2023. Retrieved 22 July 2023.
  21. ↑ Li, Cheng. "Ma Xingrui 马兴瑞" (PDF). Brookings Institution. Archived from the original (PDF) on 6 December 2022. Retrieved 21 July 2023.
  22. ↑ "Shi Taifeng". National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference. 11 March 2023. Archived from the original on 22 July 2023. Retrieved 22 July 2023.
  23. 1 2 Li, Cheng. "Wang Huning 王沪宁" (PDF). Brookings Institution. Archived from the original (PDF) on 19 November 2022. Retrieved 21 July 2023.
  24. ↑ "Wang Yi". Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China. Archived from the original on 22 July 2023. Retrieved 22 July 2023.
  25. 1 2 Li, Cheng. "Xi Jinping 习近平" (PDF). Brookings Institution. Archived from the original (PDF) on 24 May 2023. Retrieved 21 July 2023.
  26. ↑ "Yin Li 尹力". China Vitae. Archived from the original on 22 July 2023. Retrieved 22 July 2023.
  27. ↑ "Brief introductions of members of CPC central leading bodies". China Daily. 24 October 2022. Archived from the original on 22 July 2023. Retrieved 22 July 2023.
    "Yuan Jiajun 袁家军". China Vitae. Archived from the original on 22 July 2023. Retrieved 22 July 2023.
  28. ↑ "Zhang Guoqing -- Vice premier". State Council of the People's Republic of China. 13 March 2023. Archived from the original on 22 July 2023. Retrieved 22 July 2023.
    "Zhang Guoqing 张国清". China Vitae. Archived from the original on 22 July 2023. Retrieved 22 July 2023.
  29. ↑ Li, Cheng. "Zhang Youxia 张又侠" (PDF). Brookings Institution. Archived from the original (PDF) on 23 October 2022. Retrieved 22 July 2023.
    Li Jiayao (11 March 2023). "Zhang Youxia -- Vice Chairman of the CPC Central Military Commission". China Military. Archived from the original on 22 July 2023. Retrieved 22 July 2023.
  30. 1 2 Li, Cheng. "Zhao Leji 赵乐际" (PDF). Brookings Institution. Archived from the original (PDF) on 25 December 2022. Retrieved 21 July 2023.
  31. ↑ "Chinese Government Leadership". US-China Business Council. 7 October 2013. Archived from the original on 27 April 2023. Retrieved 21 July 2023.
  32. ↑ Mulvenon, James (22 February 2011). "Xi Jinping and the Central Military Commission: Bridesmaid or Bride?". China Leadership Monitor. 34. Retrieved 26 March 2011.
  33. ↑ Mulvenon, James (22 February 2011). "Xi Jinping and the Central Military Commission" Bridesmaid or Bride?". China Leadership Monitor. 34. Retrieved 30 March 2011.
  34. ↑ Chen, Feng (2011-03-23). "中国政坛"第六代新星"开始崭露头角". Duowei News (in Chinese). Archived from the original on 2011-08-22. Retrieved 2011-03-23.
  35. ↑ Buckley, Chris (2017-10-24). "Xi Jinping Unveils China's New Leaders but No Clear Successor". New York Times. Retrieved 2023-09-11.
  36. ↑ Johnson, Christopher (2017-08-09). "Chinese Politics Has No Rules, But It May Be Good if Xi Jinping Breaks Them". Center for Strategic & International Studies. Retrieved 2023-09-11.
  37. ↑ Wang, Xiangwei (2017-10-05). "Analysis: how Xi Jinping revived old methods by abandoning intraparty democracy". South China Morning Post. Retrieved 2023-09-11.
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