2015 Alberta general election

May 5, 2015
87 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Alberta 44 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout	57.0%[1]
First party Second party Third party   Leader Rachel Notley Brian Jean Jim Prentice Party New Democratic Wildrose Progressive Conservative Leader since October 18, 2014 March 28, 2015 September 6, 2014 Leader's seat Edmonton-Strathcona Fort McMurray-Conklin Calgary-Foothills (disclaimed re-election) Last election 4 seats, 9.85% 17 seats, 34.28% 61 seats, 43.97% Seats before 4 5 70 Seats won 54 21 9[lower-alpha 1] Seat change 50 16 61 Popular vote 604,518 360,511 413,610[lower-alpha 2] Percentage 40.62% 24.22% 27.79% Swing 30.77pp 10.06pp 16.17pp   Fourth party Fifth party   Leader David Swann Greg Clark Party Liberal Alberta Party Leader since February 1, 2015 September 21, 2013 Leader's seat Calgary-Mountain View Calgary-Elbow Last election 5 seats, 9.89% 0 seats, 1.31% Seats before 5 0 Seats won 1 1 Seat change 4 1 Popular vote 62,153 33,221 Percentage 4.18% 2.23% Swing 5.71pp 0.92pp
Popular vote by riding. As this is a first-past-the-post election, seat totals are not determined by total popular vote, but instead by results in each riding. Riding names are listed at the bottom.
Premier before election Jim Prentice Progressive Conservative Premier after election Rachel Notley New Democratic

The 2015 Alberta general election was held on May 5, 2015, following a request of Premier Jim Prentice to the Lieutenant Governor of Alberta Donald Ethell to dissolve the Legislative Assembly on April 7, 2015. This election elected members to the 29th Alberta Legislature. It was only the fourth time in provincial history that saw a change of government, and was the last provincial election for both the Alberta Progressive Conservative and Wildrose Parties, which would merge in 2017 to form the United Conservative Party (although each would run a token candidate in the 2019 election).

The provincial Election Act fixed the election date to a three-month period between March 1 and May 31 in the fourth calendar year after the preceding election day – in this case, April 23, 2012. However, the Act does not affect the powers of the Lieutenant Governor to dissolve the Legislature before this period.^[2]

As a result of the election, the Alberta New Democratic Party (NDP) were elected to a majority government under leader Rachel Notley. The NDP formed Government for the first time in Alberta history, ousting the PCs, who were reduced to third place in seats. Prentice resigned as PC leader and MLA for Calgary-Foothills on election night.^[3]

The Progressive Conservative Association of Alberta (PCs) had a majority in the outgoing Assembly. The Progressive Conservatives had won every provincial election since the 1971 election, making them the longest-serving provincial government in Canadian history—being in office for 44 years. This was only the fourth change of government in Alberta since Alberta became a province in 1905, and one of the worst defeats a provincial government has suffered in Canada. 31 PC MLA’s lost re-election to the legislature, the largest total number of incumbents to be defeated in one election in Alberta history. It also marked the first time in almost 80 years that a left-of-centre political party had formed government in Alberta since the defeat of the United Farmers of Alberta in 1935 and the Depression-era radical monetary reform policies of William Aberhart's Social Credit government.^[4]

The Wildrose Party under leader Brian Jean remained the Official Opposition, gaining four seats since 2012 despite winning 81,814 fewer votes and a 10.1% lower share of the popular vote than in the previous election. The Alberta Liberal Party and Alberta Party each won a single seat with Alberta Party leader Greg Clark becoming the party's first MLA. The Alberta Liberal Party lost four seats, only returning interim leader David Swann to the Legislative Assembly.

The election is sometimes called the "Orange Chinook", a reference to the province's dramatic swing to the NDP, the NDP's orange colour and the weather shifts occasioned by strong "winds of change" that southern Alberta commonly experiences.^[5][6]

Following the election, Notley and her cabinet were sworn in on May 24, 2015.^[7]

Overall, across the province, 1,488,248 valid votes were cast in this election.^[8]

Background

In the 2012 general election the PCs lost a portion of their caucus, but were able to continue as majority government, despite their share of the popular vote decreasing to under 50%. The Wildrose Party formed the official opposition for the first time, while the other two parties in the Assembly, the Alberta Liberal Party and Alberta New Democratic Party (NDP), both held official party status with five and four seats respectively.^[9] On September 4, 2014, the PCs became the longest serving political dynasty in Canadian history, at 43 years, 5 days.^[10]

Prentice, who succeeded former premier and interim leader of the Progressive Conservatives Dave Hancock in September 2014, was not obligated to call an election until 2016. However, seeking a new mandate to pass his budget, he asked Lieutenant Governor Donald Ethell to dissolve the legislature on April 7. In accordance with Canadian constitutional practice, Ethell granted the request, beginning a month long campaign.^[11] The early election call was criticized by some as unethical, as it violated the fixed election dates specified in the Elections Act, but it was constitutionally valid and followed the general practice of the reserve powers of the Crown, specifically the constitutional convention of following the advice of the premier.^[12]

Results

The NDP received the most votes (more votes than any other party) overall and in 54 districts (more than half the districts), though did not receive a majority of the vote overall nor in many districts. It received 40.6 percent of the vote and captured 62 percent of the seats in the Legislature.

Due to First-past-the-post voting, the NDP swept the Edmonton seats, won a majority of the seats in Calgary and just less than half of seats in rural Alberta.^[13] NDP MLAs were elected in all 21 Edmonton districts, 15 of the 26 Calgary districts and 18 of the 40 districts outside the major cities.^[14]

NDP candidates received over 50% of the votes in each Edmonton riding as well as the ridings of Sherwood Park, St. Albert and Lethbridge-West. All opposition (non-NDP) candidates received less than half the votes in the riding where they ran, except for the Wildrose candidates in Cypress-Medicine Hat, Strathmore-Brooks and Olds-Disbury, each of whom captured a majority of the district votes.

The election produced some very close races and small leads for some winning candidates. In Calgary Glenmore the winning candidate won with a lead of six votes over her leading contender. In Calgary McCall an NDP candidate won with less than 30 percent of the vote; in Calgary Shaw an NDP candidate won with but 31 percent of the vote; in Calgary South-East a PC won with only 32.5 percent of the votes cast.

In many ridings the combined votes of the Progressive Conservative and the Wildrose candidates surpassed that of the NDP.

In some ridings such as Red Deer North, Spruce Grove-St. Albert, Calgary-Buffalo, Calgary-Varsity, Lethbridge East and Lethbridge West, the combined vote of the NDP and the Liberal candidates totalled more than 50 percent of the district's votes, thus overwhelming the combined vote of the Conservative and Wild Rose candidate. This also held true for Calgary Mountain View where a Liberal was elected.

In many ridings no Liberal ran, which probably aided the NDP victory in those ridings. These included Lesser Slave Lake, Peace River, Edmonton-McClung, Sherwood Park, West Yellowhead and Whitecourt.

Party		Votes			Seats
	New Democratic	604,518	40.6%	30.8pp	54 / 87 (62%)
	Progressive Conservative	413,610	27.8%	16.2pp	9 / 87 (10%)
	Wildrose	360,511	24.2%	10.1pp	21 / 87 (24%)
	Liberal	62,153	4.2%	5.7pp	1 / 87 (1%)
	Alberta Party	33,221	2.2%	0.9pp	1 / 87 (1%)

^[15]

* The total popular vote includes votes from voided Calgary-Foothills election.

** Incumbent Premier Jim Prentice disclaimed his victory in Calgary-Foothills.^[18] According to section 139 of the Alberta Elections Act,^[19] if a winning candidate disclaims their right to become an MLA before the end of the appeal period for the official results, that riding's election is declared void.

The election resulted in a majority government led by the New Democratic Party.

The result in Calgary-Glenmore remained unresolved on election night, as incumbent PC MLA Linda Johnson and NDP challenger Anam Kazim finished the vote count in an exact tie of 7,015 votes each,^[20] necessitating a recount process.^[20] On May 15, the recount determined NDP candidate Anam Kazim won the riding by six votes.

The Alberta NDP had been leading in most polls since late April. They had been expected to do well in Edmonton, which historically had been more favourable to centre-left parties and candidates than Alberta in general. However, in a result that exceeded even the most optimistic projections for the NDP, Edmonton swung dramatically to support Notley, who represents an Edmonton riding. The NDP took every seat in the city, all by very large margins (4,000 votes or more with absolute majority support). The NDP also won 15 of the 25 seats in Calgary, the power base of the PCs for most of the previous four decades. The NDP also swept the province's third and fourth-largest cities, Lethbridge and Red Deer. NDP support remained relatively lower in rural Alberta, where they won only a handful of ridings in the north of the province, as well as some rural ridings around Edmonton.^[21]

Notley later said that she had known a week before the election that the NDP would win. She told the Canadian Press that she had been sitting in a hotel room in either Calgary or Lethbridge when she saw a very credible poll showing the NDP was poised to rebound from a mere four seats in the legislature – the minimum for official party status – to an outright majority. She was stunned at first, but recovered long enough to drop her plans for a whirlwind schedule to close out the campaign. Her original plan would have not only resulted in her looking extremely haggard in her first speech as premier-elect, but would have left her without time to begin a transition.^[22]

The PCs finished second in the popular vote, 53,099 votes ahead of the Wildrose. However, their caucus was decimated due to a near-total collapse in the major cities, as well as a more pronounced split in the right-of-centre vote. They were completely shut out in Edmonton, Lethbridge, and Red Deer, and lost 12 of their 20 seats in Calgary. Since the first-past-the-post system awards seats solely on the basis of plurality district contests (not by proportional representation), the PCs were knocked down to third place with 10 seats, and only two outside Calgary. This was further reduced to nine when Prentice disclaimed victory in his riding. The PCs were reduced to their smallest presence in the Legislative Assembly since 1967. With a few exceptions, their support in the cities transferred to the NDP, while their rural support moved to the Wildrose. All but three members of Prentice's cabinet were defeated.

The Wildrose had its legislative caucus greatly reduced in 2014 when then-leader and Leader of the Official Opposition Danielle Smith and all but 5 Wildrose MLAs crossed the floor to sit with the governing PCs. In the 2015 general election, the party rebounded to 21 seats and retained Official Opposition status. All of their gains were in rural ridings taken from the PCs, and they failed to win a seat in Edmonton or Calgary.

Greg Clark, leader of the Alberta Party, won the first ever seat for his party in the Legislative Assembly. He won the seat of Calgary-Elbow.

For the first time the NDP won a majority of seats in Calgary, taking 15 of the city's 26 seats. This centre-left success was deepened by a Liberal candidate and an Alberta Party candidate also scoring wins in that city. Such had not happened since 1921, when Labour candidates and Independents took seats there.^[23]

Results by riding

Bold indicates cabinet members, and party leaders are italicized. Candidate names appear as they appeared on the ballot.

Colour band in gulley indictes winner of the election.

All results are sourced from Elections Alberta.^[24]

Defeated incumbents

MLAs who did not run again

Progressive Conservative

• Rob Anderson, Airdrie^[25]
• Wayne Cao, Calgary-Fort^[25][26]
• Cal Dallas, Red Deer-South^[26]
• Alana DeLong, Calgary-Bow^[25][26]
• Yvonne Fritz, Calgary-Cross^[25][26]
• Hector Goudreau, Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley^[26]
• Jason Hale, Strathmore-Brooks
• Fred Horne, Edmonton-Rutherford^[26]
• Mary Anne Jablonski, Red Deer-North^[26]
• Genia Leskiw, Bonnyville-Cold Lake^[26]
• Donna Kennedy-Glans, Calgary-Varsity^[26][25]
• Bridget Pastoor, Lethbridge-East^[26]
• Bruce Rowe, Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills^[26]
• Danielle Smith, Highwood^[26]

Wildrose

• Heather Forsyth, Calgary-Fish Creek^[26]
• Shayne Saskiw, Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills^[26]

Liberal

• Kent Hehr, Calgary-Buffalo^[26]
• Darshan Kang, Calgary-McCall^[26]
• Raj Sherman, Edmonton-Meadowlark^[26]

Timeline

Opinion polls

The following is a summary of published polls of voter intentions.

Media endorsements

The following media outlets endorsed the Progressive Conservatives during the campaign:

• Calgary Herald (Postmedia)^[55]
• Calgary Sun (Postmedia)^[56]
• The Globe and Mail (The Woodbridge Company, majority owned by Thomson Reuters)^[57]
• Edmonton Journal (Postmedia)^[58]
• Edmonton Sun (Postmedia)^[59]

No media endorsements were made for any of the other parties.

Footnotes

References

External links

• Elections Alberta