Early shelling and Russian encroachment (August–October 2022)

On 1 August 2022, Russian forces launched massive ground attacks on settlements south and southeast of Bakhmut. Both the Russian Ministry of Defence and pro-Russian Telegram channels claimed that the battle of Bakhmut had begun.^[76][77] The following day, Ukraine reported that Russian forces had increased airstrikes and shelling of Bakhmut, beginning a ground attack on the southeastern part of the city.^[78] On 4 August, Wagner Group mercenaries managed to break through Ukrainian defenses and reach Patrice Lumumba street on the eastern outskirts of Bakhmut.^[79] In the following days, Russian forces continued to push towards Bakhmut from the south, with the Ukrainian general staff stating on 14 August that Russian forces had achieved "partial success" near Bakhmut, but offering no specifics.^[80] Night shelling in the city center on 21 September burned the Martynov Palace of Culture, where the humanitarian headquarters worked. During the extinguishing of the fire, the local fire department was shelled, which reported that two SES staff were injured and equipment damaged.^[81] At night, a five-story building was partially destroyed by Russian shelling.^[82][83] A Russian missile strike on 22 September destroyed the main bridge across the Bakhmutka river that bisects the city, disrupting both civilian travel and Ukrainian military logistics.^[84]

By 26 September, the 144th Guards Motor Rifle Division, which had a prewar strength of over 12,000 troops, had been largely destroyed and rendered combat ineffective as a result of heavy casualties sustained in the fighting.^[85]

On 7 October, Russian forces advanced into the villages of Zaitseve and Opytne on the southern and southeastern outskirts of Bakhmut, while on 10 October, the UK Defence Ministry claimed that Russian troops advanced closer to Bakhmut.^[86][87] On 12 October, Russian forces claimed to have captured Opytne, located 3 km south of Bakhmut, and Ivanhrad, although these towns were still contested.^[88] Ukrainian sources reported a minor counteroffensive on 24 October pushed Russian forces from some factories on the eastern outskirts of Bakhmut, along Patrice Lumumba street.^[89]

Early winter escalation (November–December 2022)

A Ukrainian soldier in a trench near Bakhmut, November 2022

By early November, much of the fighting around Bakhmut had descended into trench warfare conditions, with neither side making any significant breakthroughs and hundreds of casualties reported daily amid fierce shelling and artillery duels.^[90][40] On 1 November, Ukrainian journalist Yurii Butusov described the evolving nature of the battle in an interview. Butusov noted that Russian forces had suffered "huge losses every day" assaulting Bakhmut and its outskirts since early May, but insisted that they were adapting their tactics against increasingly exhausted Ukrainian defenders. He noted that the Russians were concentrating multiple small groups of infantry to break defense lines on "narrow" sections of the front.^[91]

Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces breached defense lines on Bakhmut's southern approach, allegedly capturing the villages of Andriivka, Ozarianivka, and Zelenopillia and making minor advances in Opytne through 28–29 November.^[92][93] Wagner troops attacked Kurdyumivka, adjacent to Ozarianivka, with some Russian milbloggers claiming the settlement was captured.^[94] Russian forces also attacked Ukrainian positions southeast of Bakhmut.^[95] On 3 December, Serhii Cherevatyi, a spokesperson for Ukraine's Eastern Command, described the Bakhmut front as "the most bloody, cruel and brutal sector ... in the Russian-Ukrainian war so far", adding that the Russians had conducted 261 artillery attacks in the past day alone.^[96]

The same day, a Georgia military volunteer told the media that a group of Georgian volunteers had been surrounded during clashes near Bakhmut. The commander was wounded and five or six volunteers, serving in Ukraine's 57th Brigade, had been killed, prompting Georgian president Salome Zourabichvili to express condolences.^[97] On 6–7 December, the Russian defense ministry claimed that their forces, including Wagner fighters, had successfully repelled Ukrainian counterattacks south of Bakhmut.^[98] The commander of the Ukraine National Guard's Svoboda Battalion, defending Bakhmut's southern flank, said they were "fighting for every bush" and predicted Russia would struggle to overcome a canal above and behind Kurdiumivka.^[99]

On 9 December, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused Russia of "destroying" Bakhmut, calling it "another Donbas city that the Russian army turned into burnt ruins". Former soldier and eyewitness to the battle Petro Stone called the Bakhmut front a "meat grinder", saying the Russians were "covering Bakhmut with fire 24/7".^[100] Soldiers of Ukraine's 24th Mechanized Brigade recounted recent battlefield engagements to media, such as one multi-day firefight with 50 Russian troops dug into a treeline where in some places "we were only 100 metres apart". Ukrainian soldiers claimed that front line Russian troops often attacked with little tank support, with Wagner PMC fighters serving as the main assault troops and under-equipped mobiks (recently mobilized Russian recruits) holding defensive positions. One Ukrainian artillerymen alleged that "80 percent" of the remaining civilian population, surviving in basements and supplied by mobile grocery trucks that periodically enter the city, was pro-Russian.^[101][42]

A 9K22 Tunguska of Ukraine's 30th Mechanized Brigade Anti-Air Battalion in the vicinity of Bakhmut

On 11 December a railway bridge over the E40 (M-03) highway north of Bakhmut was destroyed; the Russians accused the Ukrainians of demolishing it to hamper future Russian advances towards Sloviansk.^[102][103]

On 13 December, Russian sources claimed that proper urban street fighting had begun in the eastern and southeastern sectors of Bakhmut, particularly along Pershotravnevyy avenue up to Dobroliubova street in Zabakhmutka, while also claiming that 90% of Opytne had been captured amid fierce Ukrainian resistance. The Ukrainian General Staff said they successfully repelled assaults northeast and south of Bakhmut from the Soledar and Kurdiumivka directions, respectively.^{[104][105][106][107]} On 17 December, footage emerged online of trenches in Bakhmut's city center, indicating Ukrainian defenders were preparing for urban combat.^[108]

On 18–19 December, Ukrainian forces, purportedly including dismounted infantry supported by British-donated Wolfhound Tactical Supply Vehicles, counterattacked along Fyodor Maksimenko Street and pushed Wagner forces back to the eastern outskirts of the suburban area amid "grinding" street clashes. Meanwhile, Ukraine's Joint Forces Task Force reported repelling "five to seven" Russian infiltration groups near Bakhmut daily.^[109][110] A Ukrainian commander reported that an abundance of drone surveillance allowed for quick responses to small Russian assaults on the outskirts, while also alleging that Russia did not control Bakhmut's eastern industrial zone. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Western think tank and war observer, could not independently verify the claim of Ukraine entirely controlling the outskirts at the time.^[111]

On 20–21 December, President Zelenskyy made an unannounced visit to the Bakhmut front, where he met with soldiers, awarded medals and delivered speeches.^[112] Meanwhile, heavy shelling and fighting on Bakhmut's outskirts^[111][113] continued as Russian forces continuously attempted to break entrenched Ukrainian positions on the city's flanks. Reportedly, Wagner fighters were assaulting strongholds in Bakhmutske, Pidhorodne, and Klishciivka, located along Bakhmut's northeastern and southwestern flanks respectively, while the Ukrainians continued to hold northern Opytne, blunting Russia's advance from the south.^[114]

On 26 December, Ukraine's governor of Donetsk, Pavlo Kyrylenko, said over 60 percent of Bakhmut's infrastructure was damaged or destroyed.^[115] The ISW judged that Russia's advance on Bakhmut had "culminated" by 28 December, assessing that Russian and Wagner forces had grown increasingly unable to sustain the previous scale of infantry assaults and artillery barrages.^[116] By early January 2023, the pace of fighting and rate of artillery fire in the Bakhmut sector had significantly decreased, and The Kyiv Independent remarked that the battle was "near culmination".^[117]

Capture of Soledar and partial encirclement (January–April 2023)

Ruined residential area in Bakhmut, March 2023

View of western Bakhmut, April 2023

Following a local offensive in early January 2023, Russian forces captured the nearby town of Soledar, located 20 kilometres (12 mi) north of Bakhmut, by 16 January 2023.^[118] In its 7 January assessment, the ISW had considered the capture of Soledar as helping Russian forces to advance on Bakhmut from the north, although they claimed that Russian troops would need to cut off the T0513 highway between Siversk and Bakhmut to strangle Ukrainian supply lines to Bakhmut.^[119]

In February, Russian forces solidified gains north of Bakhmut and began pressuring Ukrainian troops on the northern front, making incremental gains in the towns north of the city.^[43] On 1 February, The New York Times reported that the Russians had increased the intensity of attacks on Bakhmut and its surrounding areas.^[120] Days later on 5 February, the British Ministry of Defence stated that Russian troops were able to fire upon the M03 and H32 roads north of the city, the main Ukrainian supply route for northern Bakhmut.^[121] On 11 February, Russian forces captured the village of Krasna Hora northeast of Bakhmut.^[122] Around this time, analysts suggested Russian losses had increased to 820 casualties a day between Bakhmut and the battle of Vuhledar.^[123] By 13 February, the Ukrainian government claimed their defenses in the village of Paraskoviivka were waning, with fierce battles around the clock.^[124][125] By 22 February, Russian forces partially encircled Bakhmut from the east, south, and north.^[126]

By 3 March, Ukrainian soldiers destroyed two key bridges, creating the possibility for a controlled fighting withdrawal.^[44] On 4 March, Bakhmut's deputy mayor told news services that there was street fighting but that Russian forces had not taken control of the city.^[127][128] The same day, the chief of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said that the city was encircled except for one road still controlled by the Ukrainian military, as had been the case since 22 February.^[129] On 5 March Ukrainian commander Oleksandr Syrskyi said the fighting had reached the "highest level of tension".^[13]

On 7 March, Ukraine withdrew from areas of Bakhmut east of the Bakhmutka river,^{[45][46][130][131][132]} making the river the front line between the opposing forces.^[133] On 9 March, the MiG-17 Monument, which had become a symbol of Ukrainian resistance in Bakhmut during the battle, was destroyed by Russian forces.^[134] On 11 March, the United Kingdom's Ministry of Defence said that by this point in the fighting Wagner Group units were "taking the lead in fighting", and that the river had become a "killing zone" for Wagner units while at the same time Ukrainian forces were at risk of being cut off.^[133] On 22 March 2023, the UK MoD noted that "There is a realistic possibility that the Russian assault on the town (Bakhmut) is losing the limited momentum it had achieved, in part because some Russian Ministry of Defense units have been redeployed to other sectors."^[135]

On 26 March, Wagner forces claimed they had fully captured the strategically significant Azom factory in Bakhmut,^[136] which was later confirmed by military analysts.^[137]

On 6 April, Russian forces took control of the city center.^[138] On 17 April, the People's House of the city was destroyed^[139] by retreating Ukrainian soldiers belonging to the 77th Airmobile Brigade to prevent the building from being used as a refuge by Russian forces.^[140] On 18 April, Ukrainian General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that Russia was "increasing the activity of heavy artillery and the number of air strikes, turning the city into ruins".^[141]

On 26 April, the Ukrainian Air Force dropped four 500-pound GBU-62/B JDAM glide bombs on a high-rise building in the Russian-controlled part of Bakhmut, possibly from two MiG-29s. Both Ukrainian and Russian forces were destroying high-rise buildings in Bakhmut to prevent them from being used "as ammo dumps, fighting positions and observation posts."^[142]

The Institute for the Study of War assessed that by the beginning of May 2023, Ukraine only controlled 1.89 square kilometers (4.54%) of the city.^[143]

Ukrainian flanking counterattacks begin (May 2023)

The Orthodox Annunciation church building in west Bakhmut was reportedly destroyed by 8 May 2023.

On 2 May, Yevgeny Prigozhin complained that there was a shortage of ammunition, with his forces needing 300 tonnes a day.^[145] Within a few days, Prigozhin threatened that he would withdraw all Wagner personnel from the city by 10 May, the day after Victory Day. He further denounced Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov, saying: "in the absence of ammunition [Wagner personnel are] doomed to perish senselessly."^{[54][146][147][148]} Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov agreed to replace Wagner forces with Chechen units in the city, according to Prigozhin.^[149]

On 6 May, Ukrainian military sources reported that the Russians were shelling the city with phosphorus munitions, with several videos and photos being released that showed the effects of the bombardment.^[150] The BBC, analyzing the footage, said that while the footage definitely showed Russian forces using some sort of incendiary munitions, it was unable to verify that it was phosphorus specifically.^[151]

On 7 May, Prigozhin announced that Gerasimov would resume artillery ammunition distribution to Wagner forces, that Wagner forces would remain in Bakhmut, and that Sergey Surovikin would be acting as an intermediary between Wagner and the Russian Ministry of Defence.^[152] The ISW assessed that Gerasimov likely agreed to keep Kadyrov out of the Russian High Command and that the situation showcased that the Russian Ministry of Defense was having difficulty commanding Wagner forces.^[152] Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukrainian Commander of Ground Forces, said that Prigozhin's claim of ammunition shortages were false, saying that the Russians were "pummeling" their positions.^[153]

On 9–10 May, Ukrainian forces launched counterattacks on Bakhmut's outskirts, expelling Russian troops from the southern bank of the Berkhivka Reservoir, located about 4 kilometers northwest of Bakhmut.^[154] General Syrskyi claimed that the Russians had been forced back over 2 km (1.2 miles) in the attack, with spokesman Serhiy Cherevaty further claiming that 11 IFVs, two armored personnel carriers, a light artillery tractor, five field ammunition depots, and one Zala UAV were destroyed.^[155][156] The Ukrainians said their 3rd Separate Assault Brigade had cleared an area 1,730 metres wide and 700 metres deep, routing units of Russia's 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and killing 23 soldiers and wounding over 40. One tank and four AFVs were also destroyed, with Ukrainian Border Guards also repelling Russian advances from within the city itself, destroying an 11-man assault group.^{[157][158][159]} The 72nd Brigade had "escaped" from the city and the remaining troops had suffered very high casualties, with the 3rd Assault Brigade claiming to have completely destroyed the 72nd's 6th and 8th Companies, and agreed with Prigozhin's claim that "500 Russian corpses" were left on the battlefield. The brigade's 3rd Separate Assault Battalion alone was reportedly responsible for 64 Russians killed, while information on another 87 "eliminated" was being "clarified" at the time. They also claimed to have taken five prisoners.^[160][161]

Prigozhin accused the regular Russian forces of "[running] away" from their positions in response to the counterattacks, while Wagner forces were allegedly forbidden from retreating under threat of "high treason" charges. He claimed Russia's defence ministry was more focused on internal power struggles and "intrigues" than actually fighting, and also accused the ministry of only providing his troops 10% of what was promised, resulting in high Wagner casualties. He again threatened that if he did not receive ammunition, Wagner would withdraw from their positions.^[162]

On 15 May, General Syrskyi stated the recent counterattacks were "the first success of offensive actions in the defence of Bakhmut."^[163] On 16 May, the Ukrainian defence ministry claimed that their forces had liberated 20 square kilometers in the north and south of the suburbs of Bakhmut, while also admitting that Russian forces were still advancing in the city itself, by using both paratroopers and artillery.^[164]

On 18 May, Prigozhin said that regular Russian forces had withdrawn up to 570 meters (1,880 feet) to the north of the city, exposing Wagner's flanks, while his soldiers had advanced up to 400 meters inside the city.^[165][166] On 19 May, Ukrainian sources claimed Ukrainian troops had advanced a mile in some areas, or "150 to 1,700 metres". A Ukrainian commander, Petro Podaru, said that Russian artillery fire had transitioned towards preventing Ukrainian forces from "deliver(ing) more infantry, ammunition and other things" via access roads west of Bakhmut.^[167] On the same day, the Ukrainians claimed the Russians had recently deployed several thousand more troops to the Bakhmut front.^[168]

Capture of Bakhmut city and Wagner withdrawal (May–June 2023)

On 20 May, Prigozhin proclaimed the capture of Bakhmut city by Wagner forces, who were set to transfer their captured territories to regular Russian forces before withdrawing. The Russian defence ministry also subsequently stated that the city had been captured.^[169] The Ukrainians denied that the city was fully captured,^[170] with Ukrainian deputy minister of defence Hanna Maliar saying the situation was "critical" but insisted Ukrainian troops still controlled areas of the city.^[171] The ISW was unable to confirm Prigozhin's claim and reiterated Maliar's claim that fighting continued,^[172] particularly citing that the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade had recaptured a region 1,750 meters wide and 700 meters deep in the suburbs.^[5]

On 21 May, the Ukrainian defence ministry claimed its forces were holding on to a sector of the city and were in the process of partly encircling its outskirts,^[173] although officials described their holdout along the T0504 highway as "insignificant". Based on this, the ISW concluded that Ukrainian forces had indeed withdrawn from the city, except some fortified areas near the highway on the city's western approach.^[5] Prigozhin again insisted the entirety of Bakhmut had been captured "right up to the last centimetre" and added that Wagner made no advances on 21 May as they were preparing to withdraw later in the week.^[174] Geolocated footage published on 21 May showed that Wagner forces had advanced towards the Ukrainian holdout at the T0504 highway entrance. Clashes were reportedly taking place as of 22 May in localities neighboring Bakhmut.^[8] On 23 May, the Ukrainian General Staff did not declare fighting in Bakhmut for the first time since December 2022. Ukrainian officials insisted that Ukraine held a position near the former MiG-17 monument in western Bakhmut in spite of footage showing Wagner forces near the monument. Fighting in the localities outside of Bakhmut's city limits continued.^[9]

On 25 May, Prigozhin promised to withdraw all Wagner forces from Bakhmut to transfer full control to Russian units by 1 June. The ISW assessed that the units supplanting Wagner forces within the city were from the DPR People's Militia. The ISW also assessed that Ukraine still controlled a strip of territory within city limits near the MiG-17 monument.^{[175][176][55]} In their 26 May report, the ISW cited Russian milbloggers as reporting on successful Ukrainian counterattacks near Orikhovo-Vasylivka and Klischiivka, northwest and southwest of Bakhmut respectively.^[177]

In their 27 May report, the ISW noted a substantial decrease in Russian offensive activities in and around Bakhmut. Hanna Maliar attributed this to Russian forces performing relief in place operations to cover Wagner withdrawals. They also noted failed Russian attacks against the suburbs of Khromove and Predtechyne and that there was no change to the status of the reported Ukrainian-controlled strip in the southwest city limits. The ISW further assessed that the 31st Guards Air Assault Brigade had recently been sent to Bakhmut to cover Russian flanks. The British Ministry of Defence and the ISW both assessed that the unit supplanting Wagner was the 132nd Separate Guard Motorized Rifle Brigade of the DNR's 1st Army Corps, reflecting Russia's attempts to have the city be incorporated into the DPR. The ISW also speculated that Russia would redirect their forces from Bakhmut to the Avdiivka-Donetsk front.^[178]

Prigozhin said on 28 May that regular Russian forces where performing relief operations, and that the full withdrawal of Wagner forces would not take place until 5 June. The rate of Russian assaults remained low, with only two reported attacks against the suburbs of Orikhovo-Vasylivka and Ivanivske, both of which where unsuccessful. Ukrainian Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty reported one instance of fighting near Bakhmut and published geolocated footage that indicated that Russian forces had made marginal gains west of Klishchiivka.^[179]

On 29 May, the ISW reported only one unsuccessful attack against Orikhovo-Vasylivka and stated that Russia's 106th Guards Airborne Division had been sent to reinforce the northern flank.^[180] Both armies were less active in offensive operations in the Bakhmut direction on 30 May.^[181] The ISW reported more unsuccessful Russian attacks against Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Bila Hora, Khromove, Ivanivske and Klishchiivka on 31 May. It also noted that the DPR's 1st "Wolves" Sabotage and Reconnaissance Brigade were active in Zaliznianske. They further assessed that Russia was cycling the DPR irregulars out of the Avdiivka-Donetsk front to be replaced by regular Russian forces in Bakhmut which, in turn, were to be sent to Avdiivka. Maliar claimed that Ukrainian forces maintained control over the southwestern outskirts and entrance to Bakhmut city.^[182]

By 1 June, only 90 Wagner personnel remained within the city. Meanwhile, Russian attacks against Orikhovo-Vasylivka and Bila Hora remained unsuccessful.^[183] Ukrainian Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty claimed that Russian units did not participate in Wagner's attrition style of warfare, and instead were using defensive tactics.^[184]

On 2 June, Prigozhin accused Russian forces of attempting to attack Wagner forces using anti-tank mines, adding that there were no injuries.^[185][186] On 3 June, the ISW and the British defence ministry stated that under-strength Russian Airborne Forces, including those of the 76th Guards Air Assault Division, 106th Guards Airborne Division, and two other unspecified brigades had deployed to the Bakhmut area.^[186] On 4 June, Prigozhin claimed that Ukrainian forces may have recaptured areas along the T0504 Highway, which had been controlled by Ukrainian forces since 21 May, according to the ISW.^[51]

On 5 June, Ukrainian forces claimed to have advanced 200 to 1,600 meters towards Orikhovo-Vasylivka and Paraskoviivka in the north, and 100 to 700 meters near Ivanivske and around Klischiivka. The ISW assessed that the Ukrainians advanced 300 meters to one kilometer in the direction of Zaliznianske and reiterated claims that portions or the whole of Berkhivka were recaptured.^{[187] [188][189]}

On 6 June, Ukrainian forces pushed Russian units past the eastern outskirts of Klishchiivka and there was ongoing fighting in Ozaryanivka, Ivanivske, Mayorsk, and Berkhivka.^[190] By 7 June, Ukrainian forces had advanced between 200 and 1000 metres in the flanks of Bakhmut.^[191] The ISW noted on 8 June that Ukrainian forces had advanced 1.8 km wide and 1.2 km deep along the western bank of the Siverskyi Donetsk Canal and forced the 57th Motorized Infantry Brigade (part of the 5th Combined Arms Army) and the "Storm-Z" penal battalion to withdraw from their positions. The ISW also noted continued unsuccessful Russian attacks on Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Ivanivske, and Pivnichne.^[192]

Recapture of Klishchiivka and Andriivka (June–October 2023)

By 14 June fighting had resumed around the city, this time with Ukrainian forces on the offensive and Russian troops on the defensive. Russian media reported that Ukrainian forces had begun to attack the southwest, northwest and western axes of the city, as well as making continued gains in the city's flanks, especially along the Berkhivka Reservoir.^[193]

On 24 June, Hanna Maliar stated Ukrainian forces had made progress in "all directions" around Bakhmut as part of a flare-up in the larger 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive, which had begun around 4 June.^{[194][195][196][197]} The same day, the Wagner Group rebellion was underway, which was partially the result of internal Russian tensions during the battle of Bakhmut boiling over.

On 4 July, Ukrainian forces made significant advances towards the village of Klishchiivka,^[198][199] with Ukrainian advances threatening to cut off southern road access for supplies to Bakhmut, and had already begun moving artillery into the village to bombard Bakhmut from the south in support of other flanking maneuvers.^[200] On 25 July, Ukrainian forces recaptured the tactically important heights overlooking Klishchiivka which allowed for uninterrupted artillery strikes into Bakhmut itself, as well as liberating the western half of the settlement. Ukrainian sources claimed this had effectively "trapped" Russian forces in the city, as any attempt to leave, or be reinforced, would be subjected to artillery strikes from Klishchiivka.^{[201][202][203]}

On 8 September, Russian sources claimed Ukrainian advances in Klishchiivka had "intensified" and that the situation in the settlement was "unknown."^[204] Ukraine's 3rd Assault Brigade was tasked with recapturing the village, with their deputy commander, Maksym Zhorin, highlighting that Ukrainian cluster bombs had prevented any significant Russian reinforcements from reaching the village.^[205][206]

On 9 September, the 3rd Assault Brigade also launched a concerted effort to liberate the neighboring village of Andriivka, located south of Klishchiivka.^[207] Over the next days, the 3rd Brigade gradually advanced over booby trapped trench lines, charred forestry, and cratered open fields defended by Russian artillery, minefields, and grenades dropped by drones. The defenses made vehicle support sparse, and the Ukrainians were only able to evacuate injured comrades at night as the Russians hunted injured Ukrainian soldiers. The Ukrainians were reportedly spread across more than seven kilometers while advancing east of the Siversky Donets canal—a canal located south of the Siversky Donets river itself and south of Bakhmut. Ukrainian assault teams waged daily small assaults until they reached the outskirts of Andriivka.^[208][209]

The 3rd Brigade broke into Andriivka on 14 September from the south, deploying smoke screens and capturing some Russian troops—and killing those who fought back—while clearing houses. Even after the Russians retreated, the village remained under artillery shelling and drone warfare. All that remained of Andriivka was piles of bricks, ruined houses, and scorched forestry.^[208] Maliar preemptively announced the liberation of Andriivka on 14 September, which was rebuffed by the 3rd Brigade which announced that the village was actually liberated on 15 September, with troops hoisting a flag there on 16 September.^{[208][210][211][212]} Later in the day, the Kastuś Kalinoŭski Regiment and Chechen volunteers reported that all Russian units had been expelled from Klishchiivka as well, publishing a video showing members of the unit walking the length of the village freely and unopposed. Elements of the 3rd Assault Brigade claimed to have killed four senior officers of the Russian 72nd Separate Motor Rifle Brigade which had been tasked with the defense of both Klishchiivka and Andriivka since the start of the renewed fighting.^[213]

Ukrainian soldiers standing in recaptured Klishchiivka, September 2023

On 17 September, Ukraine's interior minister Ihor Klymenko and general Oleksandr Syrskyi announced that Klishchiivka was fully cleared of Russian forces with President Zelenskiy congratulating the 80th Air Assault Brigade, 5th Assault Brigade, 95th Air Assault Brigade, and the Liut Brigade of the Offensive Guard for their role in the village's recapture on the morning of 18 September.^{[214][215][216]} To contain the Ukrainian advance, Russian troops had reportedly dug small trenches and deployed anti-tank hedgehogs along the railway line along Klischiivka and Andriivka's respective outskirts, which guarded the T0513 Bakhmut-Horlivka highway. On Bakhmut's northern flanks, the Ukrainians did not launch major ground assaults as the Russians held the high ground despite daily sniper and artillery exchanges.^[209]

By 1 October, the Ukrainians had advanced east, north, and south of Klishchiivka and Andriivka in attempts to recapture the railway. The Ukrainian military said the Russians had concentrated 10,000 personnel in Bakhmut itself, meanwhile Russian sources claimed Russian forces were preventing Ukrainian troops from advancing past the railway line amid continuous local assaults.^[217] By 12 October, the Ukrainians continued to report unspecified gains of "hundreds of meters" in south Bakhmut while repelling all Russian counterattacks, while Russian forces claimed to have repelled Ukrainian advances along the Klishchiivka-Andriivka-Kurdiumivka line.^[218] However Ukrainian troops had reportedly crossed the railway north of Klishchiivka by 24 October amid ongoing clashes. The Ukrainians also claimed successful counterattacks near Khromove and Bohdanivka, along Bakhmut's western environs.^[219]

By late October, Ukrainian troops reported logistical issues on the Bakhmut front, with multiple Ukrainian artillery units preserving shells due to a severe lack of ammunition, particularly mortar rounds, with the Zaporizhzhia front taking priority in artillery supplies.^[209]

Military strength

There are few reports of the military units and strengths employed by either Russia or Ukraine during the battle. However, the Wagner Group private military contractor spearheaded Russian ground assaults during the fighting in and around Bakhmut, particularly up to May 2023. Then-Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin reported that Wagner had employed 35,000 regular mercenary fighters. This had been supplemented by 50,000 mercenaries recruited from Russian prisons.^[29][233]

Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov visiting troops in Bakhmut, December 2022

On 10 January 2023, the number of Ukrainian defenders was reported as 30,000 troops^[20] while Prigozhin claimed on 17 April that 80,000 Ukrainian troops were defending Bakhmut.^[21] On 2 June 2023, Prigozhin reported that Wagner forces had been almost totally withdrawn from the battle.^[186] At the end of June, the Ukrainian military assessed the opposing force strength to be 50,300 and reported that no Wagner personnel remained.^[12]

Military casualties

The battle of Bakhmut has been described as one of the bloodiest battles of the 21st century, with the battlefield being described as a "meat grinder" and a "vortex" for both the Ukrainian and Russian militaries.^[59][60] On 11 January 2023, Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak described the fighting ongoing at Bakhmut and Soledar as the bloodiest since the start of the invasion.^[234]

As early as December 2022, it was estimated that hundreds of military personnel from both sides were killed and wounded each day. Intense shelling and frontal attacks by the Russians with minimal gains have been compared to the conditions of the First World War. Russia and Ukraine have been engaged in a battle of attrition.^[235] However, Russian losses have been disproportionate by comparison. On 6 March, an assessment by NATO was that five times as many Russians were being killed, while the Ukrainian government claimed the Russians had "potentially" lost seven times as many soldiers as Ukraine.^[236] By early June, the Ukrainian military increased this claim to 7.5 times.^[51]

Between 6 and 31 January, the Ukrainians claimed that 17,000 Russian soldiers lost their lives in the battle, which is nearly double the monthly they had reported the previous year.^[237]

On 24 February, American General Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, claimed that the Russians had lost between 1,100 and 1,200 soldiers killed “down around” Bakhmut the previous day alone, a death toll he compared with the battles of Iwo Jima and Shiloh. If accurate, this would make it one of the deadliest days of the war so far.^[238][239] Meanwhile, two days later on 26 February, former Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov stated that the Russians were losing 500 men killed and another 900 wounded in action every day fighting for Bakhmut.^[240] General Milley, appearing before the US House Committee on Armed Services on 29 March, described the reportedly high Russian casualties as a "slaughter-fest".^[241]

On 13 March, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claimed that another 1,100 Russians had been killed and 1,500 wounded over the past week. Meanwhile, the Russians claimed that 220 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the city on 13 March alone.^[242][243] Meanwhile, on 17 March, NATO estimated that the Russians were suffering 1,500 casualties per day, mainly from the fighting around Bakhmut. They also stated that Ukraine's losses were “an order of magnitude less” in fighting where "several thousand" shells a day had been fired by both sides.^[244]

On 13 April, the Ukrainians claimed to have inflicted more than 4,500 casualties on the Russians in the previous two weeks alone.^[245]

On 1 May, White House national security spokesperson John Kirby stated that the Russians had suffered 100,000 casualties, including over 20,000 dead, fighting primarily for Bakhmut just over the previous five months alone. He also said that half of these losses were from the Wagner Group.^[246] Speaking at a G7 summit on 21 May, US President Joe Biden said that "Russians have suffered over 100,000 casualties in Bakhmut."^[247] On 2 June, United States Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, reported that Russia had suffered over 100,000 casualties in Ukraine in the preceding six months (i.e. since the start of December).^[184] At the same time, the UK Ministry of Defense reported 60,000 Russian personnel killed or wounded near Bakhmut since May 2022,^[184] while the Ukrainian military would claim 100,000 personnel killed or wounded in the ten months since August 2022.^[186]

On 24 May, Yevgeny Prigozhin stated that over 20,000 Wagner fighters had been killed in the Bakhmut battle, with half that number being former prisoners. He also reported that they had as many wounded as killed.^{[248][29][233][249]} However, former Russian officer and milblogger Igor Girkin, opined that Wagner has likely suffered more than 40,000 killed in action, (including 15,000 mercenaries and 25,000 prisoners), with again the same number wounded. In part, this is based on a claimed discrepancy between the number of prisoners recruited and, the number either reported killed or repatriated at the end of their service. If indeed he is correct, this would mean Prigozhin had only 5,000 of the aforementioned 85,000 he had at the beginning of the battle.^[250][251] Meanwhile, Ukraine claims that Wagner has suffered over 81,000 casualties during the battle with 21,000 killed.^{[192][24][25]} On 2 July, the Ukrainians, while maintaining the figure of 21,000 “Wagnerites” killed, increased the number of wounded to 80,000 in “the East”.^[26]

High losses were raised by Yevgeniy Prigozhin as one of the key points in his criticism of Russian Ministry of Defense which eventually culminated in him launching an armed rebellion in June 2023.^[252]

On 13 May, military analyst Sean Bell stated that well over 100,000 Russians and 20,000 Ukrainians had been killed or injured in the battle to date.^[253]

On 1 October 2023, a Ukrainian sniper team of 20 men called the “Ghosts of Bakhmut”, claimed that they had killed 558 Russians during the battle so far, with their leader (callsign “Ghost”) reportedly being responsible for 113 of them. They also claimed that only two of them had been wounded, with Ghost again being one of them.^[254][255]

Civilian casualties

In early December 2022, only between 7,000 and 15,000 of Bakhmut's prewar population of 80,000 remained in the city.^[256][257]

On 31 May 2023, the city's mayor, Oleksiy Reva, reported 204 residents had been killed and 505 injured since the invasion began, with 500 residents remaining in the city.^[258] However, Bakhmut had been subject to Russian bombardment since at least May 2022.^[259]

Battlefield conditions

No man's land on the outskirts of Bakhmut, November 2022

With extremely high casualties, costly ground assaults with very little ground gained, and shell-pocked landscapes, volunteers, media, and government officials alike compared fighting in Bakhmut to battlefield conditions on the western front of World War I.^[268][269] Furthermore, the battle has been marked by some of the fiercest urban combat not seen in Europe since World War II.^[270][271] Retired US Marine Corps Colonel Andrew Milburn, the leader of a foreign volunteer group in Ukraine called the Mozart Group and an eyewitness to the battle, compared conditions in the Bakhmut countryside to Passchendaele and the city itself to Dresden in World War II.^[272] Comparisons have also been made between Bakhmut and the battles of Verdun, the Somme and Stalingrad by both Western and Ukrainian officials.^{[273][274][275]}

Historian Geoffrey Roberts stressed the comparisons between Bakhmut and Stalingrad as being inaccurate, with Bakhmut unlikely to have an effect as significant as Stalingrad did on the future of the war. He argued that in addition to Bakhmut being comparatively minuscule in size, the battle itself is not as strategically important as Stalingrad was.^[276] Professor Alexander Hill also commented upon the similarities drawn up between Bakhmut and past battles, stating that on a basic level Bakhmut is similar in that is it a battle of attrition causing thousands of casualties, but ultimately stating that "The fighting in and around Bakhmut won't be another Stalingrad or Verdun, because what is taking place isn't history repeating itself and nor can it be, even if we can find similarities between past and present."^[277]

On 14 April, the UK MoD said that: "Russia has re-energised its assault on the Donetsk Oblast town of Bakhmut as forces of the Russian MoD and Wagner Group have improved co-operation...Ukrainian forces face significant resupply issues but have made orderly withdrawals from the positions they have been forced to concede."^[278]

On 21 May, Ukrainian General Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrskyi said that Ukrainian forces were getting close to a "tactical encirclement" of Russian forces while controlling only an "insignificant" part of the city. Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar wrote on Telegram: "Our forces have taken the city in a semi-encirclement, which gives us the opportunity to destroy the enemy ... the enemy has to defend himself in the part of the city he controls".^[7]

Also on 21 May, President Zelenskyy compared the battle and the destruction of the city to the atomic bombing of Hiroshima in 1945, saying that the events "absolutely remind me of Bakhmut and other cities like it...absolutely, nothing alive there, all buildings are destroyed, there is even no understanding where a street is and where a building is. Absolute total destruction. Nothing left, no people left."^[279]

On 5 August, deputy defense minister Hanna Maliar described the battle as "extremely fierce", with Ukrainian forces advancing slowly but confidently against the large number of Russian troops thrown at them.^[280]

Personnel and tactics

Russia targeted Bakhmut with Iranian-made drones after 450 of them were sent to Russia in mid-October 2022.^[281]

Prior to 20 May 2023, Russian assault forces primarily composed of Wagner Group mercenary contractors, ex-convicts, reinforcements from other front lines in Ukraine, and recently mobilized recruits.^[42] Wagner's forces reportedly consisted of a majority of recruited, under-trained ex-convicts and a minority of well-trained contractors serving as group commanders that operate efficiently and encrypt radio communications.^[99] Some observers likened Russian tactics to Soviet-style human wave attacks, repeatedly assaulting Ukrainian positions with waves of infantry.^[42][41] Some Ukrainian soldiers alleged that Wagner used its recruited ex-convicts as first wave "human bait" to reveal Ukrainian positions, with those refusing to advance being threatened with execution by firing squads or barrier troops^{[282][283][41]} and those who were wounded in the assaults were usually not rescued.^[284] In late January 2023, Russia began supplanting some Wagner units with better-trained National Guard of Russia (Rosgvardia) and paratroopers, enabling them to make further advances on the Bakhmut front.^[285]

The Ukrainian defenders consist of a "hodgepodge of units", consisting initially of the 93rd Mechanized Brigade and the 58th Motorized Brigade, who were later reinforced by many other units—including special forces and territorial defense units—in order to fill in gaps caused by heavy casualties.^[59][39][90] Units are also constantly rotated to replenish casualties and prevent combat fatigue.^[286] On 10 January 2023, Polish think tank Rochan Consulting estimated Ukraine may have ten brigades fighting in Bakhmut, or around 30,000 personnel.^[287] Ukrainian commanders have utilized significant resources in Bakhmut, with their strategy being to keep Russia preoccupied with Bakhmut in order to prevent further offensives.^[288] Conversely, American military analyst Michael Kofman argued that Ukraine's use of well-trained National Guard and infantry units against poorly trained Wagner forces was tying down Ukraine's well-trained units and preventing Ukraine from conducting offensives not only in the present but for the future.^[289]

In his 1 May press briefing, US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Russia has suffered more than 100,000 casualties since December fighting in Bakhmut, a figure which includes about 20,000 soldiers killed in combat and 80,000 wounded. He added that of that of all the areas attacked in the broader Russian offensive, Bakhmut was the only area where Russian forces made any advances, although these were only "incremental gains". "Most of these efforts have stalled and failed... Russia has been unable to seize any real strategically significant territory... Folks he [Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin] went knocking around on the doors in prison cells throughout Russia to throw human flesh at this fight," Kirby said. The White House also compared the Russian casualty toll to a pair of key battles in World War II. It is more than the 19,000 US troops killed and 80,000 wounded in the Battle of the Bulge, and it's about three times the 7,100 soldiers the US lost in the Battle of Guadalcanal.^[290]

According to Western analysts, the recent spike in casualties suffered by Russian forces during the battle has led to fears that the upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive, planned for later in the spring, may become "carnage". The US has said that such fierce fighting shows that the bloody carnage may become even worse after the start of Kyiv's counteroffensive to retake the occupied territories.^{[291][292][293]}

On 17 May, the Ukrainian military published an interview with a captured Wagner mercenary, who was also a former Russian convict. In the video, the man claimed that he had been wounded and then abandoned to die by his comrades in a trench for four days before he was taken prisoner, indicating that Russian forces were leaving behind their wounded soldiers. He also said that Russian forces were suffering great losses, saying there is a "trench where a corpse is lying on a corpse".^[294]

In their 2 June report, the ISW noted claims by Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty that Russian units do not participate in the attritional style of warfare that Wagner forces had, and that instead, Russian forces are engaging in a defensive strategy. The ISW also reiterated reports by the British MoD that "to 48 centimeters of ground territory for each of the 60,000 personnel killed or wounded near Bakhmut since May 2022." Ian Stubbs, a British Senior Military Advisor, also stated that Russia has suffered nearly half of those casualties, almost 30,000 killed or wounded, in the last three months since March. "These staggering losses have achieved at total advance of just 29 kilometres. That is for every 48 centimetres of ground Russia gained, one of its soldiers was killed or wounded," he stressed.^[184][295]

Strategic value

Military situation in Ukraine as of 28 April 2023

The overall strategic value of Bakhmut has been considered dubious by many analysts, observing that the resources and lives Russia spent assaulting the city far outweighed its importance.^[296] The British defence ministry and US National Security Council both insisted capturing Bakhmut would only be a "symbolic" victory for Russia rather than a strategic one.^[297][298] Some observers noted that Bakhmut is a key regional logistics and transport hub where two roads, the T0504 to Kostiantynivka and T0513 to Siversk, pass through.^[99][299] Ukrainian president Zelenskyy has attributed both tactical and symbolic value to Bakhmut, calling it a "fortress of our morale" and refused to order a tactical retreat from the city in March 2023, saying its capture would give Russia an "open road" to important cities in eastern Ukraine.^[300][288] Other sources have described how the significance of the city "cannot be overstressed", detailing how the city lay at a fork pointing toward the larger Donbas cities of Kostiantynivka, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.^[301]

Jon Roozenbeek, British Academy postdoctoral fellow at the University of Cambridge, observed that securing Bakhmut would put Kramatorsk and Sloviansk within sufficient Russian artillery range. Others have concurred with this analysis.^[302][303] Konrad Muzyka, and expert on Russian security Mark Galeotti, argued that Russia's costly assault is a matter of both preserving prestige and sunk cost fallacy—that Russian forces had already expended so much manpower in the war effort on other fronts that they "may as well do everything they can" to seize the city.^[296]

Retired Ukrainian colonel Serhiy Hrabskyi suggested the Wagner Group was seeking glory in capturing Bakhmut, as leader Yevgeny Prigozhin is poised to reap significant monetary and political rewards if Wagner captures the city on behalf of the Russian government.^[37] Prighozhin himself had previously suggested Wagner was deliberately turning Bakhmut into a "meat grinder" to inflict heavy attritional casualties on Ukrainian forces.^[57] One Western official gave an inverse view, saying the battle is "giving Ukraine a unique opportunity to kill a lot of Russians", due to purportedly poor Russian tactics.^[58]

On 21 May, following the capture of much of the city, some Russian state media outlets compared the fall of the city to the Soviet victory in the Battle of Berlin; a Russian fighter told a Channel One correspondent that he felt "probably the same emotions as our grandfathers had in Berlin".^[304] Meanwhile, other Russian ultranationalist milbloggers celebrated the alleged capture of Bakhmut but emphasized that "Bakhmut is not Berlin" and that the capture of the city would be simply another step in ongoing difficult operations to achieve Russian objectives in Ukraine.^[305]

A Channel One broadcast on 1 July 2023 compared the battles for Mariupol and Bakhmut. It claimed that the latter had not been "the most important city from the point of view of the front", and that the Wagner mercenaries destroyed and captured the city for over 7.5 months. The broadcast contrasted this to Mariupol (portrayed as "one of the most important centres of Ukrainian metallurgy"), which had been captured by the Russian Army and the National Guard of Russia after 71 days.^[306] This report was televised one week after the Wagner Group rebellion.^[306]