2024 Mexican general election
2 June 2024
Presidential election
 
Nominee Claudia Sheinbaum Xóchitl Gálvez Jorge Álvarez Máynez
Party MORENA Independent MC
Alliance Sigamos Haciendo Historia Fuerza y Corazón por México
Presidential results by state
Incumbent President

Andrés Manuel López Obrador
MORENA (JHH)


Senate
All 128 seats in the Senate of the Republic
65 seats needed for a majority
PartyLeader Current seats
MORENA Eduardo Ramírez Aguilar 57
PAN Julen Rementería 18
PRI Manuel Añorve Baños 13
MC Clemente Castañeda Hoeflich 12
PVEM Raúl Bolaños Cacho Cué 7
PT Geovanna Bañuelos de la Torre 6
PRD Miguel Ángel Mancera 3
Independent 9
Chamber of Deputies
All 500 seats in the Chamber of Deputies
251 seats needed for a majority
PartyLeader Current seats
MORENA Ignacio Mier Velazco 202
PAN Jorge Romero Herrera 114
PRI Rubén Moreira Valdez 68
PVEM Carlos Alberto Puente Salas 39
PT Alberto Anaya 35
MC Jorge Álvarez Máynez 28
PRD Luis Espinoza Cházaro 14

General elections are scheduled to be held in Mexico on 2 June 2024.[1][2] Voters will elect a new president to serve a six-year term, all 500 members of the Chamber of Deputies and all 128 members of the Senate of the Republic. The members of the legislature elected on this date will be the first allowed to run for re-election in subsequent elections. These elections are taking place concurrently with the country's state elections.

Article 83 of the Mexican Constitution prevents incumbent president Andrés Manuel López Obrador from seeking reelection (see sexenio).[3]

Electoral system

The president is elected by plurality voting.[4]

The 500 members of the Chamber of Deputies are elected by two methods: 300 are elected in single-member constituencies by plurality voting, with the remaining 200 elected by proportional representation in five multi-member districts, with seats allocated using the simple quotient and largest remainder method. No party is allowed to hold more than 300 seats.[5][6]

The 128 members of the Senate are also elected by two methods, with 96 elected in 32 three-seat constituencies based on the states and the remaining 32 elected in a single nationwide constituency by proportional representation. In the three-seat constituencies, two seats are allocated to the party receiving the highest number of votes and one seat to the party receiving the second-highest number of votes.[7]

Presidential candidates

Sigamos Haciendo Historia

Sigamos Haciendo Historia ("Let's Keep Making History") is the left-wing coalition encompassing the National Regeneration Movement (MORENA), the Labor Party (PT) and the Ecologist Green Party of Mexico (PVEM). It is the successor to Juntos Hacemos Historia.

The coalition required that prospective candidates resign from their positions in the government to stand for the nomination.[8] Marcelo Ebrard, secretary of foreign affairs and former head of government of Mexico City, was also the first to register as MORENA's candidate, followed by Claudia Sheinbaum, Head of Government of Mexico City. Other candidates included Adán Augusto López,[9] Gerardo Fernández Noroña, Ricardo Monreal, and Manuel Velasco.

The coalition's internal process consisted of five opinion polls, with one being conducted by the National Polling Company. The remaining four polls were selected from a list comprising each candidate's two suggested polling companies.[10] The polls were conducted from 28 August to 4 September. On 6 September 2023, Sheinbaum was declared the winner, later being confirmed as the nominee.[11][12]

Candidate %
Claudia Sheinbaum 39.38
Marcelo Ebrard 25.80
Adán Augusto López Hernández 11.18
Gerardo Fernández Noroña 10.62
Manuel Velasco Coello 7.16
Ricardo Monreal 5.86

Nominee

Fuerza y Corazón por México

Fuerza y Corazón por México ("Strength and Heart for Mexico")[13] is the largest opposition coalition, a big tent composed of the National Action Party (PAN), the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD).

The coalition conducted an internal selection process to determine their candidate for the presidential election. In the initial phase, candidates were required to secure 150,000 signatures, including a minimum of 1,000 signatures from 17 out of the 32 federal entities in Mexico. Four candidates successfully advanced through this stage: Xóchitl Gálvez, Beatriz Paredes, Santiago Creel, and Enrique de la Madrid.[14][15]

From 11 to 14 August, an opinion poll was conducted to determine the top three candidates, leading to the elimination of Enrique de la Madrid. On 21 August, before the second poll, Santiago Creel withdrew and endorsed Xóchitl Gálvez. In the second poll, conducted from 27 to 30 August, Gálvez secured a victory over Beatriz Paredes by over 15 points. On 30 August 2023, Gálvez was confirmed as the coalition's presidential nominee.[16]

Candidate First poll Second poll
% %
Xóchitl Gálvez 38.3 57.58
Beatriz Paredes 26.0 42.42
Santiago Creel 20.1 Withdrawn
Enrique de la Madrid 15.6 Eliminated

Nominee

Citizens' Movement

On 29 August 2023, Dante Delgado, the party leader of Citizen's Movement, ruled out joining Fuerza y Corazón por México, instead claiming that the party would nominate its own candidate to contend in the presidential election.[17][18]

From 3 to 12 November, candidate registration for the party's presidential nomination was open. The first to register was Senator Indira Kempis Martínez, who had previously expressed interest in running for president.[19] Others who joined the race were Samuel García, Ana María Moreno Hernández, Lorena Romo Vite, Francisco Javier Rodriguez Espejel, Javier Gerardo Limones Cerniceros, Benjamín Antonio Russek de Garay, and Ernesto Miguel Sánchez Ruiz.[20][21][22] On 12 November, Marcelo Ebrard, who had failed to be selected as the candidate for Juntos Hacemos Historia, announced he was not seeking the party's nomination, despite being courted by the party.[23]

On 17 November, the party disqualified seven candidates, leaving Samuel García as the sole contender.[24] However, on 2 December, García announced his withdrawal from the presidential race due to a political crisis in Nuevo León over the appointment of an interim governor to replace him.[25] That same day, the party's members convened to discuss a new course of action, ultimately deciding to select a presidential nominee by 20 January 2024.[26][27] The new candidates included party leader Dante Delgado and Jorge Álvarez Máynez.

On 9 January 2024, Samuel García announced that the party had chosen Jorge Álvarez Máynez as the presidential nominee.[28][29]

Nominee

Independents

The registration deadline for individuals wishing to run for president as independent candidates (i.e. without the backing of a registered party) expired on 7 September 2023.[30]

To formalize their candidacies, independent presidential hopefuls have to collect the signatures of voters endorsing them in an amount equal to 1% of the country's entire electoral roll – a total of over 966,000[31] – distributed equally across at least 17 of the nation's states, within a period of 120 days. Only then will the INE register them as independent candidates and will they be allowed to start campaigning.[32]

A total of 27 individuals informed the INE of their wish to run for the presidency as independent candidates before the deadline. As of 7 September, six of them had been given permission to begin collecting signatures; the remaining 21 were given 48 hours to correct shortcomings in the documentation they had presented.[33] The six green-lighted prospective independent candidates were Rocío Gabriela González Castañeda, Ulises Ernesto Ruiz Ortiz, César Enrique Asiain del Castillo, Hugo Eric Flores Cervantes, María Ofelia Edgar Mares and José Eduardo Verástegui Córdoba.[33] A further three – Fernando Mauricio Jiménez Chávez, Manuel Antonio Romo Aguirre, and Ignacio Benavente Torres – were announced on 27 September.[34][35]

At the conclusion of the 120-day deadline, the INE announced that none of the prospective independent candidates had been successful in collecting the required number of signatures and, accordingly, there would be no independents on the presidential ballot.[36][37]

Opinion polls

Polls have been carried out by various organizations and aggregated by the Americas Society – Council of the Americas and America Elige.

Presidential

By candidates

After primary elections per main coalitions (since 2 December)
Fieldwork
date		 Polling
firm		 Sample MC None/
Undecided		 Lead
Sheinbaum
SHH		 Gálvez
FCM		 Verástegui
Independent
18 December 2023 C&E Mexico[38] 600 58% 33% 9% – – 25%
10-15 December 2023 Altica[39] 1,000 51% 37% – – 12% 14%
7-10 December 2023 Mitofsky[40] 1,600 50.2% 25.3% 6.3% – 18.2% 24.9%
2-5 December 2023 De las Heras Demotecnia[41] 1,400 65% 13% 6% 1% 15% 52%
5 December 2023 C&E Mexico [42] 600 55% 36% 7% 1% – 19%
After primary elections per main coalitions (before 2 December)
Fieldwork
date		 Polling
firm		 Sample None/
Undecided		 Lead
Sheinbaum
SHH		 Gálvez
FCM		 García
MC		 Verástegui
Independent
2 December 2023 Samuel Garcia withdraws his candidacy.
22-28 November 2023 Reforma[43] 1,000 46% 25% 14% – 15% 21%
24-25 November 2023 El Financiero [44] 1,000 50% 31% 7% – 12% 19%
10-13 November 2023 De las Heras Demotecnia[45] 1,400 66% 14% 6% 2% 9% 52%
19–28 October 2023 El Financiero[46] 1,620 46% 28% 8% – 18% 18%
16 October 2023 MEBA[47] 1,500 60.8% 26.7% 9.7% 2.8% – 34.1%
8–12 October 2023 Polls MX[48] – 57% 33% 8% – – 24%
4 October 2023 Universal[49] 1,200 50% 20% 7% 4% – 30%
19–25 September 2023 Covarrubias y Asociados[50] 1,500 58% 17% 6% – 13% 41%
25 September 2023 De las Heras Demotecnia[51] 1,200 68% 14% 4% 2% 12% 82%
16-21 September 2023 GEA-ISA[52] 1,070 53% 34% 7% 2% 4% 19%
13 September 2023 Enkoll[53] 1,205 55% 22% 6% 0% 17% 33%
Prospective candidates
PollsterDateSheinbaum
(Morena)		 Ebrard
(Morena)		 Colosio
(MC)		 Monreal
(MC)		 Anaya
(PAN)		 Creel
(PAN)		 Tellez
(PAN)		 del Mazo
(PRI)		 Ruiz Massieu
(PRI)		 de la Madrid
(PRI)		 Noroña
(PT)		 Others Lead
C&E June 202353.4% –– 5.7%– 34.1% –– – – –– 19.3%
Mexico Elige June 202335.9% –8.4% –– 24.5% –– 7.9% – 17.3%2.1% Velasco, 2.1% De Hoyos 11.4%
– 35.9%– –– – 19.5%– – 16.4% 22.1%1.8% Velasco, 1.3% Mancera, 1.8% De Hoyos, 1.3% Delgado 16.4%
El FinancieroFebruary 202345% –9% –18% – –14% – – –N/A 27%
El FinancieroOctober 202244% –9% –18% – –13% – – –N/A 26%
ReformaAugust 202234% –28% –16% – –10% – – –N/A 6%
ReformaMay 202233% –26% –13% – –7% – – –N/A 7%
ReformaDecember 202131% –27% –16% – –10% – – –N/A 11%
Alliances
Pollster Date Sample size Margin of error
SHH FCM MC Others/
Undecided		 Lead
C&E Mexico[38] 18 December 2023 600 4% 59% 34% 7% – 25%
CELAG 18 August 2023 2,000 2.19% 45.4% 18.2% 10.5% 25.9% 27.2%

References

  1. ↑ "Elección Federal 2024". Instituto Nacional Electoral (in Spanish). Retrieved 15 November 2023.
  2. ↑ "ELECCIONES 2024: Proceso Electoral en números". Instituto Nacional Electoral. 13 November 2023. Retrieved 15 November 2023.
  3. ↑ Constitución Politica de los Estados Unidos Mexicanos. Artículo 83. 1917 (México).
  4. ↑ Mexico IFES
  5. ↑ "The Mexican Electoral System". Instituto Nacional Electoral. 22 April 2017. Retrieved 8 September 2023.
  6. ↑ "Constitution, Arts. 52 et seq" (PDF).
  7. ↑ Electoral system IPU
  8. ↑ "'Corcholatas' de Morena: ¿Es ilegal no renunciar a un cargo público y hacer campaña?". El Financiero (in Spanish). 8 June 2023. Retrieved 8 July 2023.
  9. ↑ "Adán Augusto 'se despide' en Chiapas: anuncia renuncia para ser candidato a la presidencia". El Financiero (in Spanish). 10 June 2023. Retrieved 8 July 2023.
  10. ↑ Raziel, Zedryk (12 June 2023). "Morena anunciará su candidato a la presidencia el 6 de septiembre". El País México (in Spanish). Retrieved 5 January 2024.
  11. ↑ Sheridan, Mary Beth (7 September 2023). "Women win Mexican primaries; one will likely be first female president". The Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved 7 September 2023.
  12. ↑ Raziel, Zedryk (7 September 2023). "Claudia Sheinbaum gana la encuesta de Morena y será la candidata a la presidencia de México". El País México (in Spanish). Retrieved 5 January 2024.
  13. ↑ "PAN, PRI y PRD amarran coalición Fuerza y Corazón por México para 2024". Expansión Política (in Spanish). 21 November 2023. Retrieved 21 November 2023.
  14. ↑ Ruiz, Jessica (9 August 2023). "Frente Amplio por México. ¿Qué aspirantes pasaron a la siguiente etapa?". Diario de Yucatán (in Mexican Spanish). Retrieved 11 January 2024.
  15. ↑ Ochoa, Por Ximena (16 August 2023). "De la Madrid quedó fuera del proceso del Frente Amplio por México tras primer sondeo". infobae (in European Spanish). Retrieved 11 January 2024.
  16. ↑ "Mexico opposition picks businesswoman Galvez as presidential candidate". RFI. 31 August 2023. Retrieved 31 August 2023.
  17. ↑ Vargas, Por Octavio (29 August 2023). "Movimiento Ciudadano rechaza alianza con el 'PRIAN': "No vamos a unirnos con los que causaron la tragedia en México"". infobae (in European Spanish). Retrieved 5 January 2024.
  18. ↑ "MC: contamos con el tiempo necesario para ganar elección presidencial y en CDMX | Movimiento Ciudadano". movimientociudadano.mx (in Spanish). Retrieved 5 January 2024.
  19. ↑ "Indira Kempis se suma a las aspirantes a la Presidencia en 2024". 29 August 2023.
  20. ↑ "Samuel García se registra como precandidato de MC a la Presidencia: 'Vamos a hacer historia'". El Financiero (in Spanish). 12 November 2023. Retrieved 13 November 2023.
  21. ↑ "Samuel García no fue el único: se registraron en total ocho aspirantes en Movimiento Ciudadano". Proceso. 13 November 2023. Retrieved 13 November 2023.
  22. ↑ "MC define fechas para la selección de sus candidatos a las elecciones de 2024". La Silla Rota. 23 September 2023. Retrieved 13 November 2023.
  23. ↑ "Marcelo Ebrard da un no definitivo a MC; rechaza inscripción a su proceso rumbo a 2024". El Universal. 12 November 2023. Retrieved 12 November 2023.
  24. ↑ "Samuel García único precandidato de Movimiento Ciudadano a la presidencia". MVS Noticias (in Spanish). 17 November 2023. Retrieved 18 November 2023.
  25. ↑ "Samuel García is back as Nuevo León governor, ending 2024 campaign". Mexico News Daily. 2 December 2023. Retrieved 2 December 2023.
  26. ↑ "Convoca MC a Convención Nacional el lunes para definir sobre nueva precandidatura presidencial". Latinus (in Spanish). 2 December 2023. Retrieved 2 December 2023.
  27. ↑ Martínez, Armando (12 April 2023). "Movimiento Ciudadano analiza cuatro opciones para ocupar candidatura". Grupo Milenio (in Spanish). Retrieved 5 January 2024.
  28. ↑ "Samuel García destapa a Jorge Álvarez Maynez como candidato presidencial de Movimiento Ciudadano". www.proceso.com.mx (in Spanish). Retrieved 10 January 2024.
  29. ↑ "Elecciones 2024: ¿Quién es Jorge Álvarez Máynez, candidato presidencial de Movimiento Ciudadano?". El Informador :: Noticias de Jalisco, México, Deportes & Entretenimiento (in Mexican Spanish). 1 September 2024. Retrieved 10 January 2024.
  30. ↑ "Candidaturas Independientes 2024". Instituto Nacional Electoral. 20 July 2023. Retrieved 8 September 2023.
  31. ↑ ""Dios decidirá": 966 mil firmas separan a Eduardo Verástegui de ser candidato presidencial". Animal Político. 1 September 2023. Retrieved 8 September 2023.
  32. ↑ "Requisitos para poder obtener la constancia de registro como candidata o candidato independiente". Instituto Nacional Electoral. Retrieved 8 September 2023.
  33. 1 2 "Tarjeta informativa: Recibe INE manifestación de intención de 27 aspirantes a candidaturas independientes para la Presidencia de la República". Instituto Nacional Electoral. 8 September 2023. Retrieved 8 September 2023.
  34. ↑ "INE expide constancias a candidaturas independientes". Instituto Nacional Electoral. 27 September 2023. Retrieved 28 September 2023.
  35. ↑ Martínez, Fabiola (28 September 2023). "Pasan 9 a siguiente fase por la vía independiente a la Presidencia". La Jornada. Retrieved 28 September 2023.
  36. ↑ "No habrá candidatos independientes a la Presidencia: así le fue a Eduardo Verástegui y al resto de los aspirantes". InfoBae. 10 January 2024. Retrieved 10 January 2024.
  37. ↑ "No habrá candidaturas independientes para la Presidencia de la República porque no tuvieron el apoyo requerido: Dania Ravel con Mario Maldonado". Instituto Nacional Electoral. Retrieved 10 January 2024.
  38. 1 2 "Los Presidenciables 2024. 53° Medición". www.ceonline.com.mx. 19 December 2023. Retrieved 21 December 2023.
  39. ↑ "Encuesta - MX Presidencial I". Áltica (in Spanish). Retrieved 19 December 2023.
  40. ↑ Group, MITOFSKY (18 December 2023). "Tendencias electorales rumbo a la Presidencia de México, diciembre 2023". mitofsky.mx (in Spanish). Retrieved 19 December 2023.
  41. ↑ Demotecnia, De las Heras. "Encuesta Nacional Diciembre 2023". De las Heras Demotecnia (in Spanish). Retrieved 14 December 2023.
  42. ↑ Elections, C&E Campaigns & (6 December 2023). "Los Presidenciables 2024. 52° Medición". ceonline (in Spanish). Retrieved 13 December 2023.
  43. ↑ Mx, Polls (4 December 2023). "Reforma: Xóchitl disminuye en preferencias mientras Sheinbaum y Samuel, que ya no compite, aumentan". Polls Mx. Retrieved 20 December 2023.
  44. ↑ "Sheinbaum saca 19 puntos de ventaja a Xóchitl; baja cifra de indefinidos: Encuesta EF". El Financiero (in Spanish). 5 December 2023. Retrieved 14 December 2023.
  45. ↑ "Encuesta Nacional Noviembre 2023". Sin Embargo (in Spanish). 21 November 2023. Retrieved 21 November 2023.
  46. ↑ "Encuesta: Encuesta EF: Estas son las ventajas y desventajas de Sheinbaum y Gálvez como posibles candidatas". Sin Embargo (in Spanish). 31 October 2023. Retrieved 31 October 2023.
  47. ↑ "Encuesta: Se marca amplia distancia". Sin Embargo (in Spanish). 15 October 2023. Retrieved 15 October 2023.
  48. ↑ "Encuesta: Claudia Sheinbaum y Morena sacan más de 20 puntos a Xóchitl Gálvez rumbo a 2024". Infobae (in Spanish). 15 October 2023. Retrieved 15 October 2023.
  49. ↑ "Encuesta: Sheinbaum arrasa en preferencia electoral; saca 30 puntos a Xóchitl". El Universal (in Spanish). 3 October 2023. Retrieved 3 October 2023.
  50. ↑ "Covarrubias y Asociados estima 6% para Samuel, 17% para Xóchitl y 64% para Claudia". SinEmbargo MX (in Spanish). 3 October 2023. Retrieved 3 October 2023.
  51. ↑ "Estudio nacional de opinión pública". 25 September 2023.
  52. ↑ Mx, Polls (6 October 2023). "GEA-ISA: 9 de cada 10 mexicanos irá a votar en las elecciones de 2024". Polls Mx. Retrieved 20 December 2023.
  53. ↑ "Rumbo a la presidencia de la república" (PDF). Enkoll. 13 September 2023.
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