2022 United States Senate elections in California

November 8, 2022
 
Candidate Alex Padilla Mark Meuser
Party Democratic Republican
Regular election 6,621,616
61.06%
4,222,025
38.94%
Special election 6,559,303
60.89%
4,212,446
39.11%

Padilla:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Meuser:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

U.S. senator before election

Alex Padilla
Democratic

Elected U.S. senator

Alex Padilla
Democratic

Two 2022 United States Senate elections in California were held concurrently on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of California. There were two ballot items for the same Class 3 seat: a special election to fill the seat for the final weeks of the 117th United States Congress (ending on January 3, 2023), and a general election for a full term (beginning on the same day), starting in the 118th United States Congress.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Alex Padilla was appointed in 2021 by Governor Gavin Newsom to fill the vacancy created by Kamala Harris's election to the vice presidency in 2020, and he sought a full term.[1][2] A jungle primary for each of the terms took place on June 7.[3] The top two candidates in each primary, regardless of party, advanced to the special and regular general elections in November. With his advancement out of the primary, Mark P. Meuser (/ˈmɔɪʒər/ MOY-zhər) became the first Republican since 2012 to advance to the general election, as both the 2016 and 2018 Senate elections solely featured Democrats as the top two candidates. This race was a rematch between the two, as both had previously run for the secretary of state in 2018. Padilla easily won both elections.[4] Padilla became the first Latino elected to the U.S. Senate from California, and the first male elected to the Senate from California since Pete Wilson was re-elected in 1988 and the first male elected to the Class 3 Senate seat from California since Alan Cranston was re-elected in 1986.[5] This was the first time since 1988 where both major party nominees for a Senate seat in California were men and was also the first time where both major party nominees for the Class 3 Senate seat in California were men since 1986.

This was the best performance for a Republican candidate in California Senate election since 2010.

Candidates

Democratic Party

Advanced to general

Eliminated in primary

  • Akinyemi Agbede, mathematician[7]
  • Dan O'Dowd, founder and president of Green Hills Software and candidate for U.S. Senate in 1994[8]
  • Douglas Howard Pierce, businessman and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018[7]
  • Obaidul Huq Pirjada, attorney[7]
  • Timothy J. Ursich, doctor[7]

Declined

Republican Party

Advanced to general

  • Mark P. Meuser, attorney and candidate for California Secretary of State in 2018[7]

Eliminated in primary

  • James P. Bradley, businessman, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018, and candidate for California's 33rd congressional district in 2020[7]
  • Jon Elist, small business owner[7]
  • Myron L. Hall, physician[7]
  • Sarah Sun Liew, entrepreneur[7]
  • Robert George Lucero Jr., consultant[7]
  • Enrique Petris, businessman[7]
  • Chuck Smith, retired law enforcement officer[7]
  • Carlos Guillermo Tapia, businessman[7]
  • Cordie Williams, marine veteran and doctor[7]
  • Lijun Zhou, businesswoman (write-in, general election only)[11]

Withdrawn

Green Party

Eliminated in primary

Peace and Freedom Party

Eliminated in primary

No party preference

Eliminated in primary

Endorsements

James P. Bradley (R)
Individuals
Mark Meuser (R)
Newspapers
Organizations
Alex Padilla (D)
U.S. Senators
Statewide officials
U.S. Representatives
Organizations
Newspapers
Stonewall Democrats clubs
  • Stonewall Democrats[37]
  • Alice B. Toklas LGBT Democratic Club (San Francisco)[38]
  • East Bay Stonewall Democratic Club (Berkeley)[39]
  • Fresno Stonewall Democrats[40]
  • Harvey Milk LGBT Democratic Club (San Francisco)[41]
  • San Diego Democrats for Equality[42]
John Parker (P&F)

Primary elections

Campaign

Incumbent senator Alex Padilla was appointed to the job in January 2021 following Kamala Harris's election to the office of Vice President of the United States.[43] Following his appointment, Padilla quickly began to focus on his 2022 election campaign, as the fact that he has not been elected to the position means that he has a relatively low profile.[9] Padilla's election strategy focused on advocating for progressive policies and building ties with left-wing organizations that had a poor relationship with California's other Senator, Dianne Feinstein.[9][44] The potential Democratic opponent to Padilla considered most likely to join the race was U.S. Representative Ro Khanna, a staunchly left-wing Democrat who rose to prominence as the co-chair of the Bernie Sanders 2020 presidential campaign, and who had a loyal base of support from California's Asian-American and Pacific Islander communities.[9][10] On August 9, 2021, Khanna announced that he would be endorsing Padilla for election, which was viewed as likely ending any possibility that Padilla would face a serious Democratic opponent.[45] It was noted by the San Francisco Chronicle that it was considered unlikely that Padilla would face any serious Republican opponent, as California's heavily Democratic lean caused potentially strong candidates, such as U.S. Representatives Mike Garcia and Young Kim, to prefer to remain in their positions rather than launch a long-shot Senate run.[46]

In April 2022, billionaire businessman Dan O'Dowd entered the race, launching a $650,000 ad campaign.[8] O'Dowd's goal with this ad buy, and with entering the race in the first place, was to "make computers safe for humanity"[47][48] and draw the attention of the public and politicians to the dangers of Tesla's unfinished Full Self-Driving software being rolled out to 100,000 cars on public roads.[49]

Special election blanket primary

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Daphne
Bradford
(NPP)
James
Bradley
(R)
Jon
Elist
(R)
Myron
Hall
(R)
Mark
Meuser
(R)
Dan
O'Dowd
(D)
Alex
Padilla
(D)
Timothy
Ursich Jr.
(D)
Undecided
Berkeley IGS May 24–31, 2022 3,438 (LV) ± 2.2% 1% 7% 5% 2% 14% 3% 44% 2% 21%
SurveyUSA May 13–15, 2022 709 (LV) ± 4.5% 1% 8% 7% 3% 11% 6% 40% 2% 22%

Results

Results by county
  Padilla
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Meuser
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
Special election blanket primary results[50]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Alex Padilla (incumbent) 3,740,582 55.0
Republican Mark P. Meuser 1,503,480 22.1
Republican James P. Bradley 472,052 6.9
Republican Jon Elist 403,722 5.9
Democratic Timothy J. Ursich 226,447 3.3
Democratic Dan O'Dowd 191,531 2.8
Republican Myron L. Hall 143,038 2.1
No party preference Daphne Bradford 112,191 1.6
Peace and Freedom John Parker (write-in) 9,951 0.1
No party preference Irene Ratliff (write-in) 12 0.0
Total votes 6,803,006 100.0

Regular election blanket primary

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
(D) Akinyemi Agbede
(I) Daphne Bradford
(R) James Bradley
(G) James Conn
(R) Jon Elist
(G) Pamela Elizondo
(I) Eleanor Garcia
(I) Don Grundmann
(R) Myron Hall
(I) Deon Jenkins
(R) Sarah Sun Liew
(R) Robert Lucero Jr.
(R) Mark Meuser
(D) Dan O'Dowd
(D) Alex Padilla
(PF) John Parker
(R) Enrique Petris
(D) Douglas Pierce
(D) Obaidul Huq Pirjada
(R) Chuck Smith
(R) Carlos Tapia
(D) Timothy Ursich Jr.
(R) Cordie Williams
Undecided
Berkeley IGS May 24–31, 2022 3,438 (LV) ± 2.2% 1% 0% 3% 0% 2% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 11% 1% 42% 1% 0% 1% 1% 6% 1% 1% 2% 22%
SurveyUSA May 13–15, 2022 709 (LV) ± 4.5% 2% 0% 9% 1% 4% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 3% 2% 4% 1% 36% 0% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 24%

Results

Results by county
  Padilla
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Meuser
  •   20–30%
Regular election blanket primary results[50]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Alex Padilla (incumbent) 3,725,544 54.1
Republican Mark P. Meuser 1,028,374 14.9
Republican Cordie Williams 474,321 6.9
Republican Jon Elist 289,716 4.2
Republican Chuck Smith 266,766 3.9
Republican James P. Bradley 235,788 3.4
Democratic Douglas Howard Pierce 116,771 1.7
Peace and Freedom John Parker 105,477 1.5
Republican Sarah Sun Liew 76,994 1.1
Democratic Dan O'Dowd 74,916 1.1
Democratic Akinyemi Agbede 70,971 1.0
Republican Myron L. Hall 66,161 1.0
Democratic Timothy J. Ursich 58,348 0.8
Republican Robert George Lucero Jr. 53,398 0.8
Green James "Henk" Conn 35,983 0.5
No party preference Eleanor Garcia[lower-alpha 2] 34,625 0.5
Republican Carlos Guillermo Tapia 33,870 0.5
Green Pamela Elizondo 31,981 0.5
Republican Enrique Petris 31,883 0.5
Democratic Obaidul Huq Pirjada 27,889 0.4
No party preference Daphne Bradford 26,900 0.4
No party preference Don J. Grundmann[lower-alpha 3] 10,181 0.1
No party preference Deon D. Jenkins 6,936 0.1
No party preference Mark A. Ruzon (write-in) 206 0.0
Republican Lijun Zhou (write-in) 58 0.0
No party preference Irene Ratliff (write-in) 7 0.0
No party preference Marc Alexander Roth (write-in) 1 0.0
Total votes 6,884,065 100.0

General elections

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[53] Solid D March 4, 2022
Inside Elections[54] Solid D April 1, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[55] Safe D March 1, 2022
Politico[56] Solid D April 1, 2022
RCP[57] Safe D February 24, 2022
Fox News[58] Solid D May 12, 2022
DDHQ[59] Solid D July 20, 2022
538[60] Solid D June 30, 2022
The Economist[61] Safe D September 7, 2022

Polling

Special election
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Alex
Padilla (D)
Mark
Meuser (R)
Undecided
Research Co. November 4–6, 2022 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 59% 35% 6%
SurveyUSA October 7–10, 2022 1,013 (LV) ± 4.4% 56% 34% 10%
Regular election
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Alex
Padilla (D)
Mark
Meuser (R)
Undecided
Research Co. November 4–6, 2022 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 60% 35% 5%
USC October 30 – November 2, 2022 802 (RV) ± 3.5% 63% 37%
ActiVote July 22 – October 20, 2022 208 (LV) ± 7.0% 65% 35%
SurveyUSA October 7–10, 2022 1,013 (LV) ± 4.4% 56% 34% 11%

Results

2022 United States Senate special election in California[62]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Alex Padilla (incumbent) 6,559,303 60.89% N/A
Republican Mark Meuser 4,212,446 39.11% N/A
Total votes 10,771,749 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold
2022 United States Senate election in California[62]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Alex Padilla (incumbent) 6,621,616 61.06% N/A
Republican Mark Meuser 4,222,025 38.94% N/A
Total votes 10,843,641 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

By county

By county
County Alex Padilla
Democratic
Mark Meuser
Republican
Margin Total
votes
# % # % # %
Alameda 383,300 80.26 94,283 19.74 289,017 60.52 477,583
Alpine 372 60.78 240 39.22 132 21.56 612
Amador 6,522 35.37 11,917 64.63 -5,395 -29.26 18,439
Butte 33,467 46.71 38,183 53.29 -4,716 -6.58 71,650
Calaveras 7,649 36.31 13,415 63.69 -5,766 -27.38 21,064
Colusa 1,807 33.11 3,651 66.89 -1,844 -33.78 5,458
Contra Costa 267,331 69.72 116,122 30.28 151,209 39.44 383,453
Del Norte 3,400 41.20 4,852 58.80 -1,452 -17.60 8,252
El Dorado 36,669 41.81 51,025 58.19 -14,356 -16.38 87,694
Fresno 100,963 47.00 113,845 53.00 -12,882 -10.16 214,808
Glenn 2,234 28.52 5,600 71.48 -4,070 -51.32 7,930
Humboldt 30,612 64.17 17,096 35.83 13,516 28.34 47,708
Imperial 17,774 59.86 11,919 40.14 5,855 19.72 29,693
Inyo 3,488 47.35 3,878 52.65 -390 -5.30 7,366
Kern 73,779 39.41 113,428 60.59 -39,649 -21.18 188,703
Kings 10,067 37.85 16,533 62.15 -6,466 -24.30 26,600
Lake 10,138 50.93 9,769 49.07 369 1.86 19,907
Lassen 1,888 20.82 7,181 79.18 -5,293 -58.36 9,069
Los Angeles 1,670,306 70.00 715,913 30.00 954,393 40.00 2,386,219
Madera 14,018 38.37 22,514 61.63 -8,496 -23.26 36,532
Marin 95,496 81.05 22,326 18.95 73,170 62.10 117,822
Mariposa 3,050 39.34 4,703 60.66 -1,653 -21.32 7,753
Mendocino 19,745 65.49 10,406 34.51 9,339 30.98 30,151
Merced 26,755 48.96 27,893 51.04 -1,138 -2.08 54,648
Modoc 802 23.91 2,552 76.09 -1,750 -52.18 3,354
Mono 2,594 57.40 1,925 42.60 669 14.80 4,519
Monterey 67,153 66.37 34,026 33.63 33,127 32.74 101,179
Napa 32,651 66.36 16,549 33.64 16,102 32.72 49,200
Nevada 27,898 55.38 22,478 44.62 5,420 10.76 50,376
Orange 479,494 49.50 489,185 50.50 -9,691 -1.00 968,679
Placer 77,540 43.05 102,597 56.95 -25,057 -13.90 180,137
Plumas 3,405 39.79 5,153 60.21 -1,748 -20.42 8,558
Riverside 289,599 49.40 296,687 50.60 -7,088 -1.20 586,286
Sacramento 283,117 59.98 188,925 40.02 94,192 19.96 472,042
San Benito 11,016 56.83 8,368 43.17 2,648 13.66 19,384
San Bernardino 218,494 49.10 226,470 50.90 -7,976 -1.80 444,964
San Diego 586,284 57.57 432,027 42.43 154,257 15.14 1,018,311
San Francisco 254,756 85.65 42,699 14.35 212,057 71.30 297,455
San Joaquin 90,289 51.49 85,078 48.51 5,211 2.98 175,367
San Luis Obispo 63,076 53.38 55,087 46.62 7,989 6.76 118,163
San Mateo 186,891 76.37 57,825 23.63 129,066 52.74 244,716
Santa Barbara 82,255 61.57 51,339 38.43 30,916 23.14 133,594
Santa Clara 383,152 71.43 153,249 28.57 229,903 42.86 536,401
Santa Cruz 80,675 77.96 22,810 22.04 57,865 55.92 103,485
Shasta 20,805 30.80 46,750 69.20 -25,945 -38.40 67,555
Sierra 572 37.02 973 62.98 -401 -25.96 1,545
Siskiyou 6,892 39.39 10,607 60.61 -3,715 -21.22 17,499
Solano 80,317 61.90 49,443 38.10 30,874 23.80 129,760
Sonoma 143,197 73.37 51,982 26.63 91,215 46.74 195,179
Stanislaus 57,861 44.97 70,792 55.03 -12,931 -10.06 128,653
Sutter 9,797 35.47 17,827 64.53 -8,030 -29.06 27,624
Tehama 5,670 27.72 14,784 72.28 -9,114 -44.56 20,454
Trinity 2,019 44.80 2,488 55.20 -469 -10.40 4,507
Tulare 35,215 38.88 55,359 61.12 -20,144 -22.24 90,574
Tuolumne 8,932 38.92 14,016 61.08 -5,084 -22.16 22,948
Ventura 155,231 56.03 121,822 43.97 33,409 12.06 277,053
Yolo 46,094 68.68 21,022 31.32 25,072 37.36 67,116
Yuba 7,043 36.15 12,439 63.85 -5,396 -27.70 19,482
Totals 6,621,616 61.06 4,222,025 38.94 2,399,591 22.12 10,843,641

By congressional district

Padilla won 42 of 52 congressional districts in the regular election, including two that elected Republicans.[63]

District Padilla Meuser Representative
1st 36% 64% Doug LaMalfa
2nd 73% 27% Jared Huffman
3rd 46% 54% Kevin Kiley
4th 66% 34% Mike Thompson
5th 40% 60% Tom McClintock
6th 57% 43% Ami Bera
7th 66% 34% Doris Matsui
8th 75% 25% John Garamendi
9th 51% 49% Josh Harder
10th 66% 34% Mark DeSaulnier
11th 86% 14% Nancy Pelosi
12th 91% 9% Barbara Lee
13th 49% 51% John Duarte
14th 70% 30% Eric Swalwell
15th 77% 23% Jackie Speier (117th Congress)
Kevin Mullin (118th Congress)
16th 74% 26% Anna Eshoo
17th 71% 29% Ro Khanna
18th 68% 32% Zoe Lofgren
19th 67% 33% Jimmy Panetta
20th 32% 68% Kevin McCarthy
21st 53% 47% Jim Costa
22nd 51% 49% David Valadao
23rd 41% 59% Jay Obernolte
24th 61% 39% Salud Carbajal
25th 55% 45% Raul Ruiz
26th 55% 45% Julia Brownley
27th 51% 49% Mike Garcia
28th 65% 35% Judy Chu
29th 76% 24% Tony Cárdenas
30th 77% 23% Adam Schiff
31st 61% 39% Grace Napolitano
32nd 69% 31% Brad Sherman
33rd 57% 43% Pete Aguilar
34th 83% 17% Jimmy Gomez
35th 57% 43% Norma Torres
36th 69% 31% Ted Lieu
37th 86% 14% Karen Bass (117th Congress)
Sydney Kamlager-Dove (118th Congress)
38th 60% 40% Linda Sánchez
39th 56% 44% Mark Takano
40th 46% 54% Young Kim
41st 47% 53% Ken Calvert
42nd 69% 31% Lucille Roybal-Allard (117th Congress)
Robert Garcia (118th Congress)
43rd 80% 20% Maxine Waters
44th 72% 28% Nanette Barragán
45th 49% 51% Michelle Steel
46th 61% 39% Lou Correa
47th 51% 49% Katie Porter
48th 40% 60% Darrell Issa
49th 52% 48% Mike Levin
50th 63% 37% Scott Peters
51st 61% 39% Sara Jacobs
52nd 65% 35% Juan Vargas

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Garcia is listed on the ballot as a "no party preference" candidate because the Socialist Workers Party did not have ballot access in California at the time the ballot was printed.[51]
  3. Grundmann is listed on the ballot as a "no party preference" candidate because the Constitution Party did not have ballot access in California at the time the ballot was printed.[52]

References

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  2. Willon, Phil; McGreevy, Patrick (December 22, 2020). "Alex Padilla becomes California's first Latino U.S. senator, replacing Kamala Harris". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved December 22, 2020.
  3. "Statewide Direct Primary Election - June 7, 2022". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on December 23, 2020. Retrieved September 28, 2021.
  4. "Alex Padilla makes history as first Latino elected to U.S. Senate from California". Los Angeles Times. November 9, 2022. Retrieved November 9, 2022.
  5. "Meet the history-makers of the 2022 midterm elections | CNN Politics". CNN. November 9, 2022.
  6. Ting, Eric (December 23, 2020). "Alex Padilla and Shirley Weber will run in 2022. They'll likely have challengers". SF Gate.
  7. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 "Primary Election - June 7, 2022". Archived from the original on March 26, 2022. Retrieved March 26, 2022.
  8. 1 2 Cadelago, Christopher (April 16, 2022). "He wants to destroy Elon Musk. He could end up endangering the Dems' Senate plans". Politico. Archived from the original on April 16, 2022. Retrieved April 16, 2022.
  9. 1 2 3 4 Haberkorn, Jennifer (May 3, 2021). "Sen. Alex Padilla, just months into the job, has a year and a half to convince voters he should keep it". Los Angeles Times.
  10. 1 2 3 Marinucci, Carla (August 9, 2021). "Khanna won't challenge Padilla for Senate, ends intraparty threat from left". Politico. Retrieved August 9, 2021.
  11. 1 2 3 4 "Official Certified List of Write-In Candidates - June 7, 2022" (PDF). California Secretary of State. May 27, 2022. Retrieved May 30, 2022.
  12. "FILING FEC-1503114". fec.gov. March 8, 2021. Retrieved March 8, 2021.
  13. Miller, Thaddeus (March 8, 2021). "Fresno native to challenge for a U.S. Senate seat, blasts Newsom. Can she win?". Fresno Bee.
  14. Taub, David (December 17, 2021). "Heng Enters House Race Even as the Lines Keep Changing". GV Wire. Retrieved December 18, 2021.
  15. "Yvonne For US Senate 2022". Yvonne For US Senate 2022. February 26, 2007. Retrieved June 3, 2022.
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  17. Laurance, Jeremy (May 5, 2018). "Andrew Wakefield's MMR vaccine theory has been discredited for years, but he just won't go away". Independent.
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  19. Mehta, Seema (April 24, 2022). "California GOP endorses Brian Dahle for governor despite controversy over payment to party". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved April 25, 2022.
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  23. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Marinucci, Carla (April 22, 2021). "NEWSOM declares drought emergency — CAITLYN JENNER's spotty voting record — Quake nightmare: the HOLLYWOOD FAULT — PELOSI's Floyd speech slammed". Politico.
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  25. "Elections 2022". California Teachers Association.
  26. "Sen. Padilla launches 2022 Senate campaign". KTXL. April 20, 2021.
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  29. "OUR RECOMMENDED CANDIDATES". Retrieved October 29, 2022.
  30. "Por Alex Padilla para el Senado federal". La Opinión (in Spanish). May 16, 2022. Retrieved May 26, 2022.
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  33. "This U.S. Senate candidate is hard at work for California. Voters should look no further". www.fresnobee.com. October 5, 2022. Retrieved October 27, 2022.
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  44. Garofoli, Joe (June 16, 2021). "Progressives fed up with Feinstein, want her to resign now". San Francisco Chronicle. Retrieved August 10, 2021.
  45. Garofoli, Joe (August 9, 2021). "Khanna considered challenging Padilla, but now he's endorsing him for Senate". San Francisco Chronicle. Retrieved August 9, 2021.
  46. Wildermuth, John (December 19, 2020). "Can California GOP find a Senate candidate in 2022? If not, Alex Padilla could be set for years". San Francisco Chronicle. Retrieved February 8, 2021.
  47. "About Dan O'Dowd - Dan O'Dowd for U.S. Senate".
  48. Korosec, Kirsten (April 20, 2022). "Billionaire's Senate run focuses on banning 'self-driving' Tesla's". techcrunch.com.
  49. Loveday, Steven (April 18, 2022). "Elon Musk Says Tesla's FSD Now Has over 100,000 Beta Testers". Insideevs.com.
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