2021 California gubernatorial recall election
September 14, 2021[1][2]
Turnout58.45% Decrease4.83pp
Vote on recall
Shall Gavin Newsom be recalled (removed) from the office of Governor?
Results
Choice
 Votes  %
Yes 4,894,473 38.12%
No 7,944,092 61.88%
Valid votes 12,838,565 99.58%
Invalid or blank votes 54,013 0.42%
Total votes 12,892,578 100.00%
Registered voters/turnout 22,057,154 58.45%
No:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Yes:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Replacement candidates
If Newsom is recalled, who should replace him as governor?
Turnout58.45%
 
Candidate Larry Elder Kevin Paffrath
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 3,563,867 706,778
Percentage 48.4% 9.6%
 
Candidate Kevin Faulconer Brandon Ross
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 590,346 392,029
Percentage 8.0% 5.3%
Elder:      20–30%      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
Paffrath:      20–30%

The 2021 California gubernatorial recall election was a special recall election that began in August 2021 and concluded on September 14, 2021, when California voters chose not to recall incumbent Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom, elected for the term January 2019 to January 2023.

Had the recall been successful, the replacement candidate with the most votes on the second part of the ballot would have assumed the office. The election followed the same format used in the November 2020 general election: in August, county election offices sent an official ballot to the mailing address of every registered voter, giving them the option to vote by mail on or before election day, or, when polling places opened statewide, to vote in-person.[3][4] The recall petition was filed in February 2020 and signatures were collected from June 2020 to March 2021, with the signature drive gaining critical momentum in late 2020 amid voter anger over Newsom's personal behavior and leadership during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Voters' ability to recall an elected official in California is the result of Progressive Era democratic reforms intended to reduce corruption, enacted alongside the introduction of the ballot initiative and women's suffrage in 1911. Following a petition drive collecting signatures amounting to at least 12 percent of voters in the previous election for the political office in question, a special election is held. The election was the fourth gubernatorial recall election in American history and the second in state history after the 2003 recall election, which resulted in the successful recall of Governor Gray Davis, who was replaced with Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Due to the wide margin of the results, most major news outlets projected the race for Newsom within an hour of polls closing; later that night, Larry Elder, the frontrunner replacement candidate, conceded defeat.[5] Official certification of the results occurred on October 22, 2021.

Background

Following their ascension into power in 1911, California's progressive Republican reformers introduced direct democracy with the recall (Proposition 8) and the initiative and referendum (Proposition 7) processes, alongside other sweeping democratic reforms like women's suffrage (Proposition 4),[6] to weaken the corrupting power of private interests over the state's government (especially that of the enormously influential Southern Pacific Railroad), and restore, according to newly elected Governor Hiram Johnson, "the people's rule".[6][7]

Prior to this election, the only other gubernatorial recall attempt in California to qualify for the ballot happened in 2003, which resulted in Gray Davis being replaced by Arnold Schwarzenegger.[8][9] This election was the result of one of 179 attempts to recall a state-level elected official in California since voters gained the right to recall in 1911, one of 55 attempts to recall a governor, and one of six such efforts to remove Newsom.[10][8][9] Every California governor since 1960 has experienced some form of a recall attempt.[11] Of the ten prior recall attempts on state-level elected officials in California which led to special recall elections, six ultimately resulted in their removal from office by voters.[10] The recall election was the fourth gubernatorial recall election ever held in the United States;[12] the other three were in North Dakota in 1921, California in 2003, and Wisconsin in 2012.

Newsom recall petition (June 2020–March 2021)

Newsom in 2019

During Newsom's tenure as governor, a total of seven recall petitions have been launched against him. On February 20, 2020, the petition which led to the 2021 recall election was served against Newsom. It stated, "People in this state suffer the highest taxes in the nation, the highest homelessness rates, and the lowest quality of life as a result."[13] The timing of the recall attempt coincided with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.[14] The basis for previous recall attempts included the state's "Universal Healthcare and laws regarding illegal aliens" and "homelessness".[15][12][16][17]

On June 10, 2020, then-Secretary of State Alex Padilla approved petitioners' petitions for circulation.[18] The recall petition focused on a variety of grievances, on issues such as sanctuary policies, homelessness, high taxes, and water rationing.[19] Newsom's official response to the petition touted his support for funding education, health care, and infrastructure, noted the State's fiscal health, and warned that the recall campaign was a partisan attack that would result in a costly election.[19]

The recall campaign hired a political consulting firm in late June 2020, and the initial plan was to pay circulators to collect signatures.[18] To ensure a successful validation, the recall campaign sought to gather 2 million signatures.[20][21] Given the difficulties in obtaining signatures during the pandemic, however, the per-signature cost rose dramatically, and petitioners opted to proceed with a team of approximately 5,000 volunteer circulators instead.[18] The first proponent of the recall, Orrin Heatlie, played a grassroots role in the previous attempt led by aspiring Tea Party politician Erin Cruz.[22] Heatlie, a former county sheriff's sergeant, was motivated by his disapproval of a video in which Newsom advised immigrants of their right not to be subject to warrantless searches.[22][23]

The petition was initially given a signature deadline of November 17, 2020, but was extended to March 17, 2021, by Sacramento County Superior Court Judge James P. Arguelles due to the pandemic. Arguelles ruled that recall proponents could have a longer time window to collect signatures than they normally would have under non-pandemic circumstances.[18][24][25][26]

Party at The French Laundry

The French Laundry

Newsom was widely criticized in November 2020 for his attendance at a birthday party with more than three households at The French Laundry restaurant in Yountville in the Napa Valley, despite guidelines issued by his administration ahead of an expected holiday COVID-19 surge, which limited private gatherings to at most three households.[27] Also in attendance were multiple lobbyists, including both the head lobbyist and the CEO of the California Medical Association.[28] Newsom and his office initially defended the outing while saying it was the first time he and his wife dined with others in public since the COVID-19 pandemic began, that public dining recommendations were separate from state guidelines for private gatherings, and that the party was held outdoors.[29][30]

Newsom (far left), maskless and with a large crowd, at The French Laundry

The day after Newsom claimed the party had been held outdoors, photographs showing an enclosed and maskless gathering were published and widely shared.[31] Neighboring diners said Newsom's party was so loud, restaurant staff closed off their garage-like dining space with sliding glass doors, essentially making an indoor dining space.[32] Napa County was in the "orange tier" of pandemic severity at the time, which permitted some indoor dining.[33] Newsom later apologized for attending the celebration.[34] The incident severely damaged Newsom's image and credibility amid the public health crisis.[31]

This incident[35] and voter anger over lockdowns, job losses, and school and business closures[36] were widely credited for the recall petition's surge in support. Other reasons included a $31 billion[37] fraud scandal at the state unemployment agency and pre-pandemic grievances over homelessness and high taxes.[36] By August 2020, the petitioners had submitted 55,000 valid signatures, and from August 2020 through October 2020, a total of 890 new valid signatures were submitted.[38] Coincidentally, both the French Laundry party and the extension of the signature collection deadline happened on November 6, 2020[39] and between November 5, 2020, and December 7, 2020, over 442,000 new signatures were submitted and verified; 1,664,010 valid signatures, representing roughly 111 percent of the 1,495,709 minimum required signatures and 98 percent of the 1,719,900 final certified signature count, would be submitted from November 2020 to the March 2021 deadline.[38]

Reactions

Though the state's Republican Party establishment was not involved with the launch of the recall petition,[40] the growing recall effort eventually received the attention and support of statewide and nationwide Republicans, with the Republican Governors Association commissioning a poll involving prospective candidates in February 2021.[41] In January 2021, Newsom refused to acknowledge the developing recall movement when questioned by reporters.[42] In January 2021, Rusty Hicks, the chairman of the California Democratic Party, likened it to the storming of the U.S. Capitol, calling it the "California coup".[42][43] The comparison drew bipartisan criticism, with Newsom's former deputy chief of staff, Yashar Ali, saying it was "absolutely insane to frame a recall where the voters go to the polls a coup".[43][44]

Certification

California Secretary of State Shirley Weber, who officially certified the recall petition on July 1, 2021.

The recall campaign submitted 2,117,730 signatures by the March 2021 deadline.[45] On April 26, 2021, the office of Secretary of State Shirley Weber announced that the recall effort had gained enough signatures to pass the 1,495,709 threshold and qualify for the ballot, pending official certification after a period of 30 days where voters could retract their signatures[note 1] and where state officials tallied the costs to conduct the election (up to 60 days).[47] The count yielded 1,719,943 valid signatures, which was roughly 13.8 percent of votes cast in 2018, exceeding the 12 percent threshold required to trigger the recall election.[48] On June 23, 2021, the secretary of state announced that only 43 recall signatories withdrew their signatures statewide prior to the withdrawal deadline, resulting in a final count of 1,719,900 signatures (224,191 more than the required total), and all but ensuring a special election to recall Newsom from the governor's office.[49]

After official certification, Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis was legally required to call the election within 60 to 80 days (per recent changes in recall election procedures signed by Governor Newsom, which eliminated the election cost review requirements if sufficient funding had been appropriated for the election).[50] The signature drive was officially certified on July 1, 2021[51] and on the same day, Kounalakis called the election for September 14, 2021 (76 days later and the last Tuesday within the 60 to 80 day time period available to Kounalakis).[52]

Recall campaigning (March 2021–September 2021)

Newsom's opponents said he was being dishonest when in a March 16, 2021, interview with Jake Tapper of CNN, he said, "I've been living through Zoom school and all of the challenge related to it," since his children had been receiving in-person instruction at their private school since October 2020, unlike schoolchildren in many densely-populated and urban public school districts in California. Newsom made the comments while conducting a public outreach effort to address the all-but-certain recall.[53][54][55] The COVID-19 pandemic in California led to widespread school closures, the emergence of distance learning, and student mental health and academic challenges, and by the summer of 2021, education became a prominent issue in the recall campaign.[56] Republican candidates said the public K-12 school system failed to adequately serve students after teachers unions' demands led to extended shutdowns, and proposed a statewide voucher system, whereby parents could use their share of per-pupil state funding on the public, charter, or private school of their choice.[56]

Ahead of the September recall election, President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris campaigned for Newsom.[57][58][59][60][61] At a rally in Long Beach on the eve of the election, Biden said, "Folks, send a message to the nation: Courage matters, leadership matters, science matters. Vote to keep Gavin Newsom." Both Biden and Newsom likened the frontrunner candidate Larry Elder to Trump, with Newsom warning, "We may have defeated Donald Trump, but we have not defeated Trumpism. Trumpism is still on the ballot in California."[60]

Newsom's campaign ran television ads in September 2021 that called his Republican opponents' positions "anti-vax" and called the outcome of the recall vote "a matter of life and death.[62] All four major Republican candidates (Elder, Faulconer, Kiley, and Cox) opposed vaccine mandates, although none contended that the vaccines were dangerous and all said that they had been vaccinated against the virus.[62] Among the Republican candidates, Faulconer was the strongest advocate of COVID-19 vaccination; Cox had an "evolving position" but eventually recommended that everyone get vaccinated against COVID-19, and Elder and Kiley said that individuals should make up their own minds.[62] Elder pledged, if elected, to repeal all face-covering and COVID-19 testing requirements for state workers.[62]

Newsom under recall

Although the recall petition was introduced in February 2020, before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, Newsom's response faced scrutiny by recall supporters and the news media.[63] Many in favor of recalling Newsom cited issues unrelated to the pandemic as reasons for their support.[64]

Newsom presided over an unexpected surplus in the state's 2021 finances, attributable to the recovery in the stock market, the state's progressive tax code, and $26 billion in federal aid, and announced a $100 billion post-pandemic spending proposal in May 2021 which would expand the eligibility for stimulus checks issued by the state to higher-wage earners with an additional payment to those with children, provide rental and utility assistance, and give funds to small businesses.[65][66] While Newsom was required to return some of the surplus to taxpayers due to the Gann limit, which requires surplus funds to "be returned by a revision of tax rates or fee schedules", the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association said the law was likely being misapplied with the issuance of rebate checks to targeted constituencies rather than with the reduction of tax rates for all taxpayers.[67] A report from the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst's Office, published shortly after the proposal was revealed, said that when considering spending that must go towards public schools, pay off debt, or be placed in the state's main reserve account, the surplus was actually $38 billion, not $75 billion as claimed by Newsom, that the proposal was being rushed since more time was needed to determine which solutions would be effective, and that the proposal was "shortsighted and inadvisable" since it requested $12 billion from the state's existing reserves in spite of the surplus.[68][69][70] Newsom's Democratic predecessor Jerry Brown said the spending plans were "not sustainable" and said, "I would predict, certainly within two years, we're going to see fiscal stress."[71][72] Proponents of Newsom's proposal said the high amount of spending was "historic" and would help the economy recover from the pandemic, while opponents said Newsom's proposal was crafted in response to the imminent recall election.[68][73] According to state officials, a stimulus payment would be issued to eligible individuals starting in September 2021.[74][75] The first round of 600,000 stimulus checks was directly deposited into bank accounts on August 27, 2021, with payments to other recipients scheduled to be disbursed every two weeks.[76]

In May 2021, Kaiser Health News reported that throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, Newsom was "routinely outsourcing life-or-death public health duties to his allies in the private sector" with lucrative no-bid government contracts. The report said the "vast majority" of awardees were Newsom supporters and donors who had collectively donated $113 million to his political campaigns (including to his campaign to fight the recall), charitable causes, or policy initiatives, since his entry into state-level politics in 2010.[77]

In June 2021, The Sacramento Bee reported that the non-profit organization founded by Newsom's wife, Jennifer Siebel Newsom, had received over $800,000 in donations from companies that lobbied or did business with California state government, and paid her over $2.3 million since 2011 for leading the organization and producing documentary films through her production company, Girl's Club Entertainment.[78][79] When questioned about his wife's non-profit, Newsom denied that there was any conflict of interest with the arrangement.[79] In response to the report, several recall challengers called for a ban on donations to non-profit organizations of elected officials' family members from companies engaged in business with the state.[78]

Partisanship

The recall effort was not launched by state Republican Party apparatus, but by activists who had unsuccessfully attempted to recall Newsom before; the activists said the party establishment did not get involved in a substantial way until the recall effort had almost triggered the election.[40]

Newsom did not acknowledge the recall election until its occurrence became all but certain, calling the effort "partisan, Republican". He recruited nationwide Democrats to help fundraise against it.[80][81] State Democratic leaders warned members of their party against running in the recall election to avoid a potential split electorate, which some attribute to the 2003 recall of Governor Gray Davis, where Democratic Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante was defeated in his candidacy by Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger.[82] A May 2021 UC Berkeley Institute of Government Studies poll sponsored by the Los Angeles Times found that Democratic voters overwhelmingly preferred having a prominent Democratic replacement candidate on the ballot in case the recall was successful, at odds with attempts by party leadership to prevent such a scenario.[83]

Former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger disputed the supposed partisan motives of the recall, comparing the 2021 effort to the successful 2003 recall and saying,

"It's pretty much the same atmosphere today as it was then. There was dissatisfaction, to the highest level. And it's the same with the momentum. Something that sets it off to a higher level, kind of the straw that breaks the camel's back ... like an explosion."[84]

Democratic strategist Katie Merrill said that the chance for a successful recall in 2021 was low:

"Politically, we're a completely different state than we were in 2003. If you look at the statewide races, the Republican Party has effectively become a third party in California."[85]

Newsom sought to connect the backers of the recall effort to "the RNC, anti-mask and anti-vax extremists, and pro-Trump forces", while recall proponents said that the recall was only about Newsom and his performance as governor, and claimed that around one-third of recall petition signatories were registered Democrats or independents.[86] As of April 30, 2021, nearly a year after the recall campaign was approved for petition circulation by the secretary of state, Trump had yet to personally comment on the recall effort.[87] In September 2021, Trump commented on the recall election, claiming without evidence that it was "probably rigged".[88]

Despite the CDC's mid-May guidance that it was not necessary for persons fully vaccinated against COVID-19 to wear masks in most indoor settings, Newsom's administration decided that California would continue its indoor mask mandate for another month, until June 15, 2021. Reception to the CDC's new guidance among public health experts had been mixed, with some favoring quick implementation and others favoring a delay, including Bob Wachter, chair of the UCSF Department of Medicine, who called the CDC's new guidance "premature".[89] The delayed implementation was criticized by UCSF scientist and COVID-19 expert Dr. Monica Gandhi who said it had no scientific rationale, while potentially causing harm by suggesting there is "still a danger when there isn't one".[90] Isaac Hale, a lecturer of political science at UC Davis, said partisan politics concerning the recall may have been a factor in the decision:

"One of [the] top political priorities Newsom has is keeping the Democratic base together, which is why they're really focused on arguing the recall is a partisan Republican endeavor. The biggest thing that could damage that narrative is if a prominent Democrat or progressive emerged as a candidate in the recall, like Cruz Bustamante did in 2003. The key to Newsom staying in power is keeping the Democratic base happy, consolidated and making sure the California Democratic Party is the party of Gavin Newsom, and Gavin Newsom only. It's smart politics since mask mandates are popular among California Democrats."[91]

Jack Citrin, a political science professor at UC Berkeley, said changing the electoral calendar threatened to reinforce the public's cynicism about politicians using any means available to stay in power, and that they were "trying to create a situation that is most favorable for the partisan outcome that they favor".[92] The changes were heavily criticized by Newsom's Republican opponents.[93]

In August, recall proponents filed suit challenging language proposed by Newsom for the voter information handbook, alleging it falsely or misleading characterized the recall as a "power grab" by "Republicans and Trump supporters".[94] On August 5, 2021, Sacramento County Superior Court Judge Laurie M. Earl ruled against the suit and allowed inclusion of the disputed language, saying, "There is nothing false or misleading about describing the recall effort's leaders as Trump supporters."[95] Judge Earl wrote that while it may have been an exaggeration to describe the election as a "Republican recall", the rhetoric was "common to political debate" and "permissible".[96]

On July 24, 2021, the California Republican Party's steering committee voted to allow the party to endorse a candidate in the recall election, if the candidate received at least 60 percent of delegate votes in an upcoming August 7 meeting. Some Republicans opposed the move out of concern that endorsing a single candidate would reduce Republican voter turnout.[97] On August 7, the party voted to cancel the endorsement vote and issue no endorsement;[98] prior to the cancellation of the endorsement vote, Republican delegates were set to choose an endorsee from the four candidates who each had received the support of at least 200 delegates, which were Larry Elder, Kevin Faulconer, Kevin Kiley, and Doug Ose.[99]

With political allies having successfully dissuaded prospective high-level Democrats from joining the race, Newsom's campaign urged supporters to skip the second question on the recall ballot. The directive was criticized by nonpartisan political observers, who said that it was misleading and could cause voter confusion.[100]

Recall election (September 2021)

Election administration

After some blueprints of the Dominion Voting Systems voting machines were leaked, a group of eight cybersecurity experts called, in a letter to Secretary of State Shirley Weber, for rigorous auditing of the recall election with a risk-limiting audit to mitigate any cyberattack risk.[101] The experts wrote that they had no evidence of a hacking threat, and did not cast any blame on Dominion, but said that the state and counties should take steps to ensure that "the release of the Dominion software into the wild" did not increase election security risks.[101] The California Secretary of State's office said the 40 counties in California using Dominion election management system use a different version of the software that meets state requirements, and noted that California election systems have layered security protections, including routine vulnerability testing, pre-election testing, access controls, and physical security.[101] California also uses paper ballots with a voter-verified paper audit trail, another security measure.[101]

Larry Elder's unsubstantiated fraud claim prior to election day

The day before the end of voting, candidate Larry Elder claimed on his campaign website that fraud had already been detected and linked to a petition for citizens to sign "demanding a special session of the California legislature to investigate and ameliorate the twisted results" of the election,[102] though no vote totals had yet been reported. Elder would concede defeat on election day.[5] His claim that cast doubt on the legitimacy of the election result was accompanied by similar unsubstantiated claims from former President Donald Trump and several right-wing media figures.[103][102]

California's recall process

An image of a ballot from Los Angeles County. The listed order of the replacement candidates was determined by a randomization of the alphabet. The starting point, however, gets shifted for each of the state's 80 Assembly Districts (hence, all 46 candidates appear at the top of the ballot in at least one assembly district, with 34 candidates being listed first in two assembly districts).[104]

As of 2021, California is one of 19 states to allow recall elections.[105] Under state law, any elected official may be subjected to a recall.[106] To trigger a recall election of a statewide elected official, proponents must gather a certain number of signatures from registered voters within a certain time period. The number must equal at least 12 percent of the votes cast in the previous election for that office.[107][108] Based on the previous gubernatorial election, the 2021 recall petition required 1,495,709 signatures.[108] When the secretary of state confirms that a recall petition meets the required number of signatures, a recall election must be scheduled within 60 to 80 days.[109][110] If the petition qualifies fewer than 180 days prior to the next regularly scheduled election, then the recall becomes part of that regularly scheduled election.[111] In the case of a recall against the governor, the responsibility for scheduling the recall election falls on the lieutenant governor,[112] which for 2021 was Eleni Kounalakis.[110]

A recall ballot in California consists of two parts: whether the incumbent should be recalled, and a selection of replacement candidates in the event they are recalled. If a simple majority of those who cast ballots favors removing the incumbent by selecting "YES" on the first question,[113] then the replacement candidate who receives the most votes (a type of plurality voting) finishes out the incumbent's term in office. A voter is allowed a single unranked vote when choosing a preferred replacement candidate, irrespective of their response to the first question.[114] If the recall had been successful, the new governor would have taken office 38 days after the election and served the remainder of the term through January 2, 2023.[115] Following legislation, all registered voters would be mailed a ballot for any elections held in 2021, including the recall election (subsequent legislation signed by Governor Newsom in September 2021 would mandate the same universal mail-in format for all future state and local elections).[116][110]

Changes to state recall election laws

Though California's recall process remains fundamentally unchanged since its introduction in 1911,[117] beginning in 2017 and up to the 2021 gubernatorial recall, California's Democratic-led government enacted legislation to change how recall elections are conducted. Several lawmakers and academics also proposed more substantial changes during the 2021 recall campaign that would later fail in the legislature and the courts; similar rule changes were proposed during California's 2003 recall election campaign that targeted Democrat Gray Davis.[117] In addition, a new election law was applied to the 2021 recall election, though its application would later be ruled invalid in court.

Recall election timeline (SB 117 and SB 152)

In 2017, ahead of the successful recall of State Senator Josh Newman (D-Fullerton), Democratic legislators changed the law concerning recall elections with Senate Bill 117[118] to give voters 30 business days to withdraw their names from the recall petition.[119] The 2017 law change also added a 30-day period for the state Department of Finance to conduct a cost estimate and gave the Joint Legislative Budget Committee 30 days to review the estimate.[120]

On June 28, 2021, Newsom signed Senate Bill 152 into law, which allowed for his recall election to be held as early as August 2021 by allowing for a shorter recall timeline, which had been lengthened prior to the recall of Senator Newman.[121] The changes allowed the lieutenant governor to set a date for the recall without waiting for the Joint Legislative Budget Committee to review the cost estimate "so long as the Legislature has appropriated the funds it determines 'reasonably necessary' to conduct the recall election".[122] With the same law change, the legislature appropriated $250 million to administer the recall election.[123]

Election cost

While Newsom's pre-pandemic response to the recall effort in early 2020 warned that a special recall election would cost $81 million,[124][19] county officials estimated in June 2021 that a statewide recall election, which at the time was expected to be held in the fall of 2021, would cost taxpayers $215 million.[125][126] This higher estimate had presumed higher paper costs due to California's requirements for universal mail-in ballots instituted during the COVID-19 pandemic, which covered all elections held in 2020 and 2021, as well as a lengthy recall calendar featuring the rule changes enacted in 2017, ahead of Senator Newman's recall.[126][127]

With the shortened timeline from SB 152 now ensuring a summertime election, California's county election clerks nonetheless urged Lieutenant Governor Kounalakis to schedule the election as late as possible, citing an inability to guarantee a successful August election, possible voter confusion, and the potential for costs far beyond the original estimate.[126] A summertime election, held in late August or early September, could have helped Newsom defeat the recall by avoiding political fallout over fires, virus variants, or school reopenings, which could coincide with what had been anticipated to be a late October or early November recall election; this strategic advantage was the rationale for public advocacy for an earlier election by Democratic State Senator Steve Glazer.[128] On July 1, the Department of Finance released an estimate of the cost of the September 14, 2021 election at $276 million, an increase of $61 million from the prior $215 million estimated by county election offices.[129][125]

Newsom's campaign and Democratic legislative leaders of both state houses had criticized the recall election as a waste of taxpayer money, while recall proponents said, "You can't put a price on democracy," and that some costs could have been avoided if officials allowed for a "traditional" election without universal mail-in ballots.[130] While the projected $276 million cost of the recall was close to the $292 million spent on the 2020 general election in California, which was the first to feature universal mail-in ballots, the cost per voter was significantly higher than in the 2018 midterm elections.[130]

Secretary of State Weber said in an interview with KABC-TV that the recall election's total cost by election day had surpassed $276 million and was on track to eventually exceed $300 million.[131] On February 3, 2022, election officials released a final tally of the costs for the recall election, at a little over $200.2 million.[132]

Incumbent's party preference (SB 151)

In 2019, Newsom signed Senate Bill 151 into law,[133] which gave recall targets the right to state their party preference on the recall ballot. Newsom was unable to take advantage of the new law after his campaign missed a February 2020 deadline (when the recall petition was filed) to state his party preference. In June and July 2021, Newsom's campaign sued Secretary of State Shirley Weber (whom he appointed earlier in 2021) over the issue, but lost the case. Weber sided with him, telling the judge that voters would benefit from knowing Newsom's political party preference. The lawyers arguing the case in opposition to Newsom before Judge James P. Arguelles (who had also approved the recall signature deadline extension)[134] represented replacement candidate Caitlyn Jenner and proponents of the recall.[135][136]

Misapplication of tax return disclosure law (SB 27)

A new requirement for gubernatorial candidates to disclose their most recent tax returns was passed into law in 2019, when Governor Newsom signed Senate Bill 27.[note 2] Although the language of the law says that gubernatorial candidates must publicize the prior five years of their tax returns in order for their names to appear on a "primary ballot", the secretary of state applied the law to the recall election.[138] The law has been cited as a potential reason for the major reduction in recall replacement candidates relative to the number of candidates in the 2003 gubernatorial recall.[139]

The tax return disclosure requirement did not apply to Newsom, who was not considered a "candidate" in the recall. Newsom's campaign nonetheless submitted his tax documents to Secretary of State Shirley Weber, who refused to publish them on the grounds that the governor was not required to disclose them. Newsom's campaign did not respond to a reporter's July 19, 2021, request for his recent tax returns.[140]

On July 21, 2021, Sacramento County Superior Court Judge Laurie Earl invalidated all tax return disclosure requirements for the 2021 recall election. The ruling was on a suit filed by prospective recall challenger Larry Elder against Secretary of State Weber, alleging she overstepped her authority by disqualifying him from his candidacy due to a purported tax return filing error.[141] The judge ruled that Weber had improperly disqualified Elder, who had "substantially complied" with the requirements and that the special recall election was not a primary election and therefore Senate Bill 27 did not even apply.[142] By then, 42 candidates' tax returns had already been made public by the secretary of state's office.[143] Weber's office said it would comply with the ruling and did not appeal.[144]

In August 2021, an essay by UC Berkeley School of Law Dean Erwin Chemerinsky and UC Berkeley Professor of Law and Economics Aaron Edlin appeared in The New York Times claiming California's recall process violates the Constitution of the United States, since more people could vote to retain Newsom than for any particular candidate while still ousting him, thus potentially violating "one person, one vote" legal precedent (conversely, if a majority of voters favored retaining Newsom, but an even greater number of voters favored a particular replacement candidate, Newsom would nonetheless prevail).[145][146] Charles C. W. Cooke, writing in The National Review in the same month, criticized the rationale and timing of the essay's publication and said Chemerinsky had selectively taken issue with California's recall, in which a Democrat was targeted, by not bringing up the pivotal 2020–21 United States Senate election in Georgia, which would also be invalid by his logic.[147] Many experts have said the current recall process would probably survive legal challenges.[148]

On August 13, 2021, two California voters filed a federal lawsuit against California's recall process, with formerly disbarred[149] attorney Stephen Yagman and Joseph Reichmann as counsel,[150] alleging violation of the U.S. Constitution's Equal Protection Clause.[151] California Attorney General Rob Bonta said on August 16, 2021, that he was monitoring the lawsuit and legal debate; by then, millions of ballots had already been sent out.[151] On August 27, 2021, United States District Court for the Central District of California Judge Michael W. Fitzgerald, an Obama appointee, dismissed the lawsuit.[152] Judge Fitzgerald, in his ruling, said of the plaintiffs' grievances: "Such disgruntlement raises no federal constitutional issues and certainly does not give the federal judiciary the right to halt the mammoth undertaking of this gubernatorial recall election."[153] The office of Secretary of State Shirley Weber (the defendant in the case) said they would not appeal the ruling.[153]

Proposed changes to state recall election law

In April 2021, two bills that could make future recalls less likely were introduced in the California Senate: the first, a bill originally authored by Senator Ben Allen (D-Redondo Beach) two years prior, in response to the recall of Senator Josh Newman, would allow a targeted incumbent to be a candidate on the recall ballot;[154] the second, authored by Senator Josh Newman (who by 2020 had reclaimed his lost state senate seat) would have allowed targets of recall campaigns to access the lists of recall petition signers and try to persuade them to remove their signatures. Neither bill would have impacted the 2021 recall election.[155]

Newman's proposed law (Senate Bill 663)[155] cleared the State Senate's Elections Committee on April 12, but he pulled the bill before it headed to the Judiciary Committee[156][157] after it received fierce opposition from proponents of the 2021 recall over privacy and voter intimidation concerns.[158][159] As of July 2021, Senator Allen's bill (Senate Constitutional Amendment 3)[155] was on hold in the legislative "suspense file".[154][160]

In September 2021, while voting in the recall election was underway, Democratic State Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon said discussions were being held to alter California's recall process; support and opposition to changes in the recall process in California have fallen along partisan lines.[161] Any major changes to the recall process must be approved by California's voters via an amendment to the Constitution of California.[162]

Fundraising

California's recall process requires that campaigns supporting challengers adhere to the usual campaign finance limits for political candidates, while there is no dollar limit for a donor's contribution to the campaign of the defending incumbent, nor for donations to groups advocating narrowly for the recall of the incumbent while not supporting any specific challenger.[163] For the 2021 recall election, the maximum amount that a donor could have given to a candidate (other than Newsom) was $32,400.[164]

By June 2021, the three biggest donors to Newsom's campaign against the recall were the California Association of Realtors, the California Democratic Party, and Reed Hastings.[165] Prominent donors against the recall also included Steven Spielberg, George Soros, Jeffrey Katzenberg, Peter Chernin, J.J. Abrams and Katie McGrath, Laurene Powell Jobs, and Marissa Mayer.[166][167] By June 3, 2021, labor unions across the state donated $2 million to Newsom's campaign against the recall and union leaders, while saying their side was already favored by voters, promised a get-out-the-vote drive to "make sure we secure those votes and talk to our members to ensure that base" through a door-to-door canvassing effort.[168]

While organizers of the recall campaign said the effort was driven by grassroots supporters angry over pandemic restrictions and Newsom's attendance at the French Laundry dinner that defied his own guidelines, over half of the $4 million raised by recall proponents by March 2021 originated from two dozen Republican groups, along with wealthy companies and individuals, including Douglas Leone, David O. Sacks and Chamath Palihapitiya.[169] Recall proponents said there was greater voter energy in favor of the recall and that despite having a small budget, an "unparalleled" volunteer base collected more than enough signatures for the "purposeful and organic" recall effort.[168]

By May 26, 2021, $11.1 million and $4.6 million went to the pro-Newsom and pro-recall sides, respectively, with most funding for both sides originating from the same wealthy enclaves around the state.[170] On August 4, 2021, the Los Angeles Times published updated campaign finance data for the upcoming recall election: Newsom's campaign was by far in the lead with $51 million raised, while $5.8 million had been raised by pro-recall committees unaffiliated with a candidate (most of the $5.8 million raised had already been spent during the signature gathering phase). Among challengers who had raised over a million dollars, John Cox reported the most, with $7.6 million (largely self-funded), followed by Faulconer, who reported $3.4 million (raised over a six-month period), and Elder, who reported over $1 million (raised over a three-week period).[171]

After surviving the recall election, Newsom would decide the fate of numerous bills passed in the legislature and determine policy that could affect donors to his anti-recall campaign, which included the film and tech industries, real estate and labor union interests, and Native American tribes, who had collectively donated tens of millions of dollars to fight the recall (being unencumbered by donation limits), in what was described as a unique opportunity to attempt to buy influence in California's government.[172]

Campaign

Qualified replacement candidates

To have been listed on the ballot as a replacement candidate, a candidate must have been a United States citizen and registered to vote in California, submitted signatures from 65 registered voters and paid a $4,194.94 filing fee (which could be waived with the submission of 7,000 signatures of registered voters). Candidates who had been convicted of a felony involving bribery or embezzlement of public money were not allowed to run.[139]

The deadline for filing was July 16, 2021. Forty-six candidates qualified to appear on the recall ballot, consisting of 24 Republicans, nine Democrats, two Greens, one Libertarian, and ten no party preference. Four of the 46 candidates qualified after a Sacramento County judge invalidated application of SB 27 on recall elections and ordered California's Secretary of State to add candidates who did not meet requirements for tax return disclosure. The list of candidates on the ballot was certified on July 21, 2021.[141][173][174][175] Additionally, seven write-in candidates were certified by the Secretary of State on September 3.[176] Of the write-in candidates, their party affiliation consisted of two Democrats, one Republican, one American Independent, and three no party preference. Lieutenant Governor of California Eleni Kounalakis declined to run.[177]

Top candidates

Candidates that received at least 1% of the vote
CandidatePartyPrior positions Residence
Holly L. Baade Democratic Spiritual teacher and coach[173][178] Fairfax
John H. Cox		 Republican Businessman
Perennial Candidate
2018 Republican gubernatorial candidate[179]		 Rancho Santa Fe
Larry Elder		 Republican Conservative talk show host and author[175] Los Angeles
Kevin Faulconer		 Republican Former mayor of San Diego (2014–2020)[180] San Diego
Caitlyn Jenner		 Republican Reality show personality
Former Olympic athlete
Transgender rights activist[181][182][183]		 Malibu
Kevin Kiley		 Republican Assemblyman for California's 6th State Assembly district (2016–2022)[184] Rocklin
Patrick Kilpatrick		 Democratic Actor
Screenwriter
Producer[173][178]		 Los Angeles
Jacqueline
McGowan		 Democratic Cannabis advocate and business owner[173][178] Napa
Kevin Paffrath		 Democratic YouTuber
Real estate broker
Landlord[185]		 Ventura
Armando Perez-
Serrato		 Democratic Business owner[186][15] Orange
Brandon Ross Democratic Doctor and lawyer[173][178] San Diego
Joel A. Ventresca		 Democratic Former executive committee member of the Service Employees International Union
Retired airport analyst
Perennial candidate[187][178]		 San Francisco
Daniel Watts Democratic Free speech lawyer
Green candidate in the 2003 California gubernatorial recall election[173][178]		 Vista

Debates

The Richard Nixon Foundation announced plans for two debates during the month of August 2021: the first on August 4, and the second on August 22. The first debate was a 90-minute televised event held at the Nixon Presidential Library in Yorba Linda, California. Six Republican candidates (Faulconer, Elder, Cox, Jenner, Kiley, and Ose) were invited to participate, along with Newsom. The Nixon Foundation announced that all the Republican candidates, with the exception of Jenner, had accepted the invitation, and Gov. Newsom had not responded.[188] A day after the debate was announced with Elder as a participant, the Elder campaign issued a statement that he would not attend the debate.[189][190][188]

During the August 17 debate in Sacramento, Cox was served with a subpoena while on stage, and on camera. The subpoena by a San Diego County court was for failure to pay a debt of about $100,000 from his 2018 gubernatorial campaign. Ose had initially accepted the invitation to appear at the same debate, but dropped out of the race the day of the debate, and therefore did not attend.[191] Elder announced that he would not attend the debate, nor any other debate in which Newsom is not attending.[192]

During the August 25 debate in Sacramento, Kevin Paffrath called on the other three candidates onstage (Faulconer, Cox, and Kiley) to drop out of the race and endorse him, stating he feared a lame-duck governor would get nothing done.[193]

2021 California's gubernatorial recall election debates
 No.Date (2021)Host / SponsorModerator(s)Link
1 July 24 Yes California (virtual format) Marcus Ruiz Evans & Tom Elias YouTube video
2 August 4 Nixon Presidential Library Hugh Hewitt
(with Robert C. O'Brien, Christine Devine and Elex Michaelson serving as panelists)		 YouTube video
3 August 17 Sacramento Press Club Vicki Gonzalez YouTube video
4 August 19 KRON-TV studios, San Francisco Nikki Laurenzo & Frank Buckley YouTube video
5 August 25 KCRA-TV studios, Sacramento Alexei Koseff & Deirdre Fitzpatrick YouTube video

Participation

Participating candidates in the debates
Candidate

 P  Present  A  Absent  N  Not invited  W  Withdrawn

Debate number (see table above)
12345
Larry Elder AAAAA
John Cox APPPP
Kevin Faulconer APPPP
Kevin Kiley APPPP
Caitlyn Jenner AAAAA
Kevin Paffrath ANNNP
Doug Ose PPWWW
Jacqueline McGowan PNNNN
James G. Hanink PNNNN
Holly L. Baade PNNNN
David Alexander Bramante PNNNN
John R. Drake PNNNN
David Hillberg PNNNN
Dan Kapelovitz PNNNN
Kevin K. Kaul PNNNN
Daniel R. Mercuri PNNNN
Joel A. Ventresca PNNNN
Daniel Watts PNNNN

Endorsements

On recall question

"Yes" (for recall)[lower-alpha 1]
Executive branch officials
Governors
U.S Representatives
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers and other media
"No" (against recall)[lower-alpha 2]
Executive branch officials
  • Joe Biden, 46th President of the United States (2021–present), 47th Vice President of the United States (2009–2017), and former U.S. Senator from Delaware (1973–2009)[222]
  • Kamala Harris, 49th Vice President of the United States (2021–present) and former U.S. Senator from California (2017–2021)[222]
  • Barack Obama, 44th President of the United States (2009–2017) and former U.S. Senator from Illinois (2005–2008)[223]
U.S. Senators
U.S Representatives
State officeholders
Local officials
Individuals
Newspapers and other media
Organizations

For candidates


Larry Elder (R)
Governors
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers and other media
Kevin Faulconer (R)
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
Individuals
Newspapers and other media
James Hanink (ASP, but listed on the ballot as "No Party Preference")
Individuals
Organizations
Jeff Hewitt (L)
Organizations
Dan Kapelovitz (G)
Local officials
Organizations
Kevin Kiley (R)
U.S. Representatives
Local officials
Individuals
  • Orrin Heatlie, main recall organizer and retired county sheriff's sergeant[316][317][note 7]
Newspapers and other media
Michael Loebs (CNP, but listed on the ballot as "No Party Preference")
Organizations
David Moore (SEP, but listed on the ballot as "No Party Preference")
Organizations
Dennis Richter (SWP, but listed on the ballot as "No Party Preference")
Individuals
Organizations

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[323] Likely D September 13, 2021
Inside Elections[324] Likely D August 16, 2021
Sabato's Crystal Ball[325] Likely D September 9, 2021

Polling

Newsom recall

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Yes on recall No on recall Undecided Margin
Real Clear Politics September 6–13, 2021 September 14, 2021 41.8% 56.3% 1.9% No on recall +14.5
FiveThirtyEight August 27 – September 14, 2021 September 14, 2021 41.5% 57.3% 1.2% No on recall +15.8
Average 41.7% 56.8% 1.5% No on recall +15.1
Result 38.12% 61.88% – No on recall +23.76
Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 Yes
on recall		 No
on recall		 Undecided
2021 CA gubernatorial election September 14, 2021 12,892,578 – 38.12% 61.88% –
The Trafalgar Group (R) September 11–13, 2021 1,082 (LV) ± 3.0% 45% 53% 2%
Momentive August 31 – September 13, 2021 3,985 (LV) ± 1.6% 41% 55% 4%
Emerson College September 10–11, 2021 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 40% 60% 1%
Data for Progress (D) September 2–10, 2021 2,464 (LV) ± 2.0% 43% 57% –
SurveyUSA September 7–8, 2021 930 (LV) ± 4.2% 41% 54% 5%
Suffolk University September 6–7, 2021 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 41% 58% 1%
Berkeley IGS August 30 – September 6, 2021 7,917 (LV) ± 2.0% 38% 60% 1%
The Trafalgar Group (R) September 2–4, 2021 1,079 (LV) ± 3.0% 43% 53% 4%
YouGov August 30 – September 1, 2021 1,618 (LV) ± 3.0% 43% 57% –
The Trafalgar Group (R) August 26–29, 2021 1,088 (LV) ± 3.0% 44% 52% 4%
Public Policy Institute of California August 20–29, 2021 1,080 (LV) ± 4.5% 39% 58% 3%
SurveyUSA August 26–28, 2021 816 (LV) ± 4.4% 43% 51% 6%
Gravis Marketing August 25–27, 2021 729 (LV) ± 3.6% 45% 50% 5%
Targoz Market Research August 23–25, 2021 787 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 52% 6%
Change Research (D) August 22–25, 2021 782 (LV) ± 3.7% 42% 57% 1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies August 20–22, 2021 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 41% 48% 11%[lower-alpha 4]
964 (LV) ± 3.2% 43% 51% 7%
YouGov August 6–12, 2021 1,585 (RV) ± 3.4% 46% 54% –
1,534 (LV) ± 3.8% 48% 52% –
SurveyUSA August 2–4, 2021 613 (LV) ± 5.0% 51% 40% 9%
Emerson College July 30 – August 1, 2021 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 48% 6%
Core Decision Analytics July 27–29, 2021 804 (RV) ± 3.5% 41% 52% 7%
~728 (LV) ± 3.6% 44% 51% 5%
Berkeley IGS July 18–24, 2021 5,795 (RV) ± 2.0% 36% 51% 13%
3,266 (LV) ± 2.5% 47% 50% 3%
Emerson College July 19–20, 2021 1,085 (RV) ± 2.9% 43% 48% 9%
Change Research (D) June 11–16, 2021 1,085 (RV) ± 3.0% 40% 54% 6%
Moore Information Group (R)[upper-alpha 1] June 1–3, 2021 800 (RV) ± 3.0% 44% 50% 6%
682 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 46% 5%
Tulchin Research (D) May 21–30, 2021 1,500 (RV) ± 2.5% 37% 50% 13%
1,168 (LV) ± 2.9% 38% 52% 9%
Public Policy Institute of California May 9–18, 2021 1,074 (LV) ± 4.2% 40% 57% 3%
Berkeley IGS April 29 – May 5, 2021 10,289 (RV) ± 2.0% 36% 49% 15%
7,943 (LV) ± 2.3% 42% 50% 8%
SurveyUSA April 30 – May 2, 2021 642 (RV) ± 5.3% 36% 47% 17%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[upper-alpha 2] April 15–19, 2021 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 45% 45% 10%
Public Policy Institute of California March 14–23, 2021 1,174 (LV) ± 3.9% 40% 56% 5%
Probolsky Research (R) March 16–19, 2021 900 (RV) ± 3.3% 40% 46% 14%
900 (LV)[lower-alpha 5] ± 3.3% 35% 53% 13%
Emerson College March 12–14, 2021 1,045 (RV) ± 3.0% 38% 42% 20%[lower-alpha 6]
WPA Intelligence (R)[upper-alpha 3] February 12–14, 2021 645 (LV) ± 3.9% 47% 43% 10%
Berkeley IGS January 23–29, 2021 10,357 (RV) ± 2.0% 36% 45% 20%
7,980 (LV) ± 2.4% 36% 49% 15%
Remington Research (R)[upper-alpha 4] March 17–18, 2019 1,303 (LV) ± 2.7% 31% 52% 17%

Replacement candidates

The table below contains all candidates who had polled at or above 2% since the filing deadline for the recall, had raised at least $100,000 (excluding loans and including at least $5,000 in the most recent filing period), were a current or former elected official, or were otherwise considered notable in their own right. The graphical summary includes all candidates who met at least one of those criteria and had appeared in at least four separate publicly released polls.

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Elder (R) Paffrath (D) Faulconer (R) Cox (R) Kiley (R) Jenner (R) Other/Undecided
[lower-alpha 7]		 Margin
Real Clear Politics August 20 – Sep 13, 2021 Sep 13, 2021 32.4% 7.8% 5.3% 4.0% 3.1% 1.3% 46.1% Elder +24.6
FiveThirtyEight July 18 – Sep 13, 2021 Sep 13, 2021 29.7% 6.1% 5.1% 4.5% 3.0% 1.0% 50.6% Elder +23.6
Average 31.1% 7.0% 5.2% 4.3% 3.1% 1.2% 48.4% Elder +24.1
Result 48.4% 9.6% 8.0% 4.1% 3.5% 1.0% 25.4% Elder +38.8
Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error
(I) Angelyne
(D) Holly Baade
(R) John Cox
(D) John Drake
(R) Larry Elder
(R) Kevin Faulconer
(R) Ted Gaines
(L) Jeff Hewitt
(R) Caitlyn Jenner
(G) Dan Kapelovitz
(R) Kevin Kiley
(D) Patrick Kilpatrick
(D) Jacqueline McGowan
(R) Doug Ose
(D) Kevin Paffrath
(D) Armando Perez-Serrato
(D) Brandon Ross
(D) Joel Ventresca
(D) Daniel Watts
Other
Undecided
None
2021 CA gubernatorial election Sep 14, 2021 7,361,568 – 0.5% 1.3% 4.1% 0.9% 48.4% 8.0% 0.7% 0.7% 1.0% 0.9% 3.5% 1.2% 2.9% 0.4% 9.6% 1.2% 5.3% 2.5% 2.3% 4.6% – –
The Trafalgar Group (R) Sep 11–13, 2021 1,082 (LV) ± 3.0% – – 3% 1% 41% 4% – – 1% – 4% – 4% – 10% – 1% – – 9% 23% –
Emerson College Sep 10–11, 2021 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% – – 3% 6% 30% 4% – – 2% – 4% – 3% 1% 6% – – – – 3% 6% 34%
Data for Progress (D) Sep 2–10, 2021 2,557 (LV) ± 2.0% – 2% 7% – 22% 4% – – 1% – 3% – 4% – 6% – 5% – 3% 5% 7% 29%
SurveyUSA Sep 7–8, 2021 597 (LV) ± 5.5% – 4% 8% 4% 29% 6% – – 2% – 3% 2% 4% – 9% 1% 3% 2% 2% 6% 13% –
Suffolk University Sep 6–7, 2021 233 (LV) ± 6.4% 0% 0% 4% 1% 39% 5% 1% 1% 1% 0% 2% – 2% 0% 5% 0% 2% 1% – – 7% –
Berkeley IGS Aug 30 – Sep 6, 2021 4,707 (LV) ± 2.6% – 1% 4% 1% 38% 8% – 1% 1% 1% 4% 1% 2% – 10% 1% 3% 2% 1% 8% 16% –
The Trafalgar Group (R) Sep 2–4, 2021 1,079 (LV) ± 3.0% – – 3% – 32% 4% – – 1% – 4% – 3% – 13% – – – – 11% 29% –
YouGov Aug 30 – Sep 1, 2021 1,618 (LV) ± 3.0% 1% 1% 3% 1% 24% 5% 0% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 7% 1% 1% 1% 1% 4%[lower-alpha 8] – 39%
The Trafalgar Group (R) Aug 26–29, 2021 1,088 (LV) ± 3.0% – – 4% – 29% 4% – – 1% – – – – 0% 22% – – – – 9% 30% –
Public Policy Institute of California Aug 20–29, 2021 1,080 (LV) ± 4.5% – – 3% – 26% 5% – – 1% – 3% – – – – – – – – 14% 24% 25%
SurveyUSA Aug 26–28, 2021 515 (LV) ± 5.2% – 5% 6% 2% 27% 5% – – 2% – 5% – 5% – 6% 3% 5% 2% – 12% 14% –
Gravis Marketing Aug 25–27, 2021 729 (LV) ± 3.6% – – 4% – 22% 6% 1% 2% 3% 3% 4% – – – 18% – – – – 16% 21% –
Targoz Market Research Aug 23–25, 2021 787 (LV) ± 3.5% – – 13% – 12% 7% – – 3% – 3% – – 2% 13% – – – – 4% 20% 23%
Change Research (D) Aug 22–25, 2021 782 (LV) ± 3.7% – 2% 2% – 27% 3% – – 1% – 4% – 5% 1% 6% – 3% – 3% 7% 15% 22%
YouGov Aug 6–12, 2021 1,534 (LV) ± 3.8% – – 3% – 23% 3% 2% 1% 2% – 3% – – 2% 13% – – – – 5% 25% 20%
SurveyUSA Aug 2–4, 2021 545 (LV) ± 5.4% – – 10% – 23% 5% – – 4% – 3% – – 4% 27% – – – – 5% 20% –
Emerson College Jul 30 – Aug 1, 2021 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% – – 7% – 23% 4% – – 7% – 5% – – 0% 1% – – – – 14% 40% –
Core Decision Analytics Jul 27–29, 2021 803 (RV) ± 3.5% 1% 1% 4% 0% 9% 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 3% 1% 2% 1% 2% 0% 1% 9%[lower-alpha 9] 34% 22%
~728 (LV) ± 3.6% 1% 1% 4% 0% 10% 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 3% 1% 3% 1% 2% 0% 1% 8%[lower-alpha 10] 32% 22%
Berkeley IGS Jul 18–24, 2021 5,795 (RV) ± 2.0% 1% 2% 7% 1% 12% 8% 0% 1% 2% 1% 3% 0% 2% 1% 5% – 2% 1% 2% 1%[lower-alpha 11] 44% –
3,266 (LV) ± 2.5% 0% 1% 10% 1% 18% 10% 0% 1% 3% 1% 5% 0% 1% 1% 3% – 1% 0% 2% 1%[lower-alpha 12] 40% –
Emerson College Jul 19–20, 2021 1,085 (RV) ± 2.9% – – 6% – 16% 6% – – 4% – 4% – – 0% 2% – – – – 8% 53% –
Moore Information Group (R)[upper-alpha 1] Jun 1–3, 2021 800 (RV) ± 3.0% – – 22% – – 11% – – 6% – – – – 4% – – – – – 18% 39% –
682 (LV) ± 4.0% – – 24% – – 12% – – 6% – – – – 4% – – – – – 17% 37% –
SurveyUSA Apr 30 – May 2, 2021 642 (RV) ± 5.3% – – 9% – – 3% – – 5% – – – – 2% – – – – – 17%[lower-alpha 13] 26% 38%
Hypothetical polling
Full-field ballot including potential Democratic candidates
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 John
Cox
(R)		 Kevin
de León
(D)		 Kevin
Faulconer
(R)		 Caitlyn
Jenner
(R)		 Doug
Ose
(R)		 Tom
Steyer
(D)		 Antonio
Villaraigosa
(D)		 Other Undecided
Moore Information Group (R)[upper-alpha 1] Jun 1–3, 2021 800 (RV) ± 3.0% 16% 4% 7% 4% 2% 5% 9% 14% 38%
682 (LV) ± 4.0% 18% 4% 8% 4% 2% 5% 8% 13% 37%
Antonio Villaraigosa vs. Kevin Faulconer
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 Antonio
Villaraigosa (D)		 Kevin
Faulconer (R)		 Undecided
WPA Intelligence (R)[upper-alpha 3] Feb 12–14, 2021 645 (LV) ± 3.9% 28% 31% 41%

Results

The recall election result was officially certified on October 22, 2021.[326] Newsom had survived the recall with similar results as his first run for governor. No on recall votes exceeded that of what the votes Newsom received in 2018 by 200,000 votes and had a similar vote percentage as well. No on recall had also won nearly all counties that Newsom had, save for Merced County that voted for the recall by 4 points.

2021 California gubernatorial recall election (question 1)[327][328][329]
Choice Votes  %
No on recall 7,944,092 61.88
Yes on recall 4,894,473 38.12
Blank and invalid votes 54,013 –
Total votes 12,892,578 100
Registered voters and turnout 22,057,154 58.45%
Replacement ballot results by county
Elder
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Paffrath
  •   20–30%
2021 California gubernatorial recall election (question 2)[327][329]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Larry Elder 3,563,867 48.4%
Democratic Kevin Paffrath 706,778 9.6%
Republican Kevin Faulconer 590,346 8.0%
Democratic Brandon M. Ross 392,029 5.3%
Republican John Cox 305,095 4.1%
Republican Kevin Kiley 255,490 3.5%
Democratic Jacqueline McGowan 214,242 2.9%
Democratic Joel Ventresca 186,345 2.5%
Democratic Daniel Watts 167,355 2.3%
Democratic Holly L. Baade 92,218 1.3%
Democratic Patrick Kilpatrick 86,617 1.2%
Democratic Armando "Mando" Perez-Serrato 85,061 1.2%
Republican Caitlyn Jenner 75,215 1.0%
Democratic John R. Drake 68,545 0.9%
Green Dan Kapelovitz 64,375 0.9%
Libertarian Jeff Hewitt 50,378 0.7%
Republican Ted Gaines 47,937 0.7%
No party preference Angelyne 35,900 0.5%
No party preference David Moore[note 8] 31,224 0.4%
Republican Anthony Trimino 28,101 0.4%
Republican Doug Ose 26,204 0.4%
No party preference Michael Loebs[note 9] 25,468 0.3%
Green Heather Collins 24,260 0.3%
No party preference Major Singh 21,394 0.3%
Republican David Lozano 19,945 0.3%
Republican Denver Stoner 19,588 0.3%
Republican Sam Gallucci 18,134 0.2%
Republican Steve Chavez Lodge 17,435 0.2%
Republican Jenny Rae Le Roux 16,032 0.2%
Republican David Alexander Bramante 11,501 0.2%
Republican Diego Martinez 10,860 0.1%
Republican Robert C. Newman II 10,602 0.1%
Republican Sarah Stephens 10,583 0.1%
No party preference Dennis Richter[note 10] 10,468 0.1%
Republican Major Williams (write-in) 8,965 0.1%
No party preference Denis Lucey 8,182 0.1%
No party preference James G. Hanink[note 11] 7,193 0.1%
Republican Daniel Mercuri 7,110 0.1%
Republican Chauncey "Slim" Killens 6,879 0.1%
Republican Leo S. Zacky 6,099 0.1%
No party preference Kevin Kaul 5,600 0.1%
Republican David Hillberg 4,435 0.1%
No party preference Adam Papagan 4,021 0.1%
Republican Rhonda Furin 3,964 0.1%
Republican Nickolas Wildstar 3,811 0.1%
No party preference Jeremiah "Jeremy" Marciniak 2,894 0.0%
Republican Joe M. Symmon 2,397 0.0%
No party preference Miki Habryn (write-in) 137 0.0%
Democratic Roxanne (write-in) 116 0.0%
Democratic Stacy Smith (write-in) 81 0.0%
No party preference Vivek B. Mohan (write-in) 68 0.0%
American Independent Thuy E. Hugens (write-in) 19 0.0%
No party preference Vince Lundgren (write-in) 5 0.0%
Total valid votes 7,361,568 100
Turnout 12,892,578 58.45%
Registered electors 22,057,154

By county

On recall question

Here are the results of the recall election by county. Khaki represents counties won by No. Light blue represents counties won by Yes.[328]

CountyNoYes
 %# %#
Alameda81.2%465,90118.8%108,081
Alpine61.1%35438.9%225
Amador35.0%6,95765.0%12,895
Butte45.6%36,12854.4%43,129
Calaveras35.5%8,32064.5%15,133
Colusa33.4%2,02766.6%4,037
Contra Costa71.4%324,74728.6%130,058
Del Norte40.1%3,50559.9%5,243
El Dorado40.6%39,90759.4%58,393
Fresno48.7%126,48851.3%133,309
Glenn28.2%2,48571.8%6,331
Humboldt64.0%33,16436.0%18,621
Imperial59.4%19,28840.6%13,177
Inyo45.9%3,502 54.1%4,134
Kern38.2%81,03061.8%131,061
Kings36.3%11,242 63.7%19,710
Lake51.0%11,367 49.0%10,923
Lassen15.8%1,604 84.2%8,538
Los Angeles70.8%2,077,859 29.2%855,940
Madera38.8%16,233 61.2%25,638
Marin81.7%108,599 18.3%24,273
Mariposa38.6%3,376 61.4%5,378
Mendocino64.7%22,093 35.3%12,075
Merced48.0%27,867 52.0%30,210
Modoc22.0%73078.0%2,593
Mono55.5%2,80544.5%2,245
Monterey67.9%80,66432.1%38,169
Napa67.6%38,94832.4%18,681
Nevada54.0%29,85146.0%25,426
Orange51.7%586,45748.3%547,685
Placer42.6%85,67757.4%115,411
Plumas36.8%3,40863.2%5,842
Riverside49.5%355,63050.5%362,958
Sacramento59.9%329,95240.1%220,498
San Benito57.8%12,71842.2%9,276
San Bernardino50.2%288,87749.8%286,364
San Diego57.2%674,67042.8%505,081
San Francisco86.1%292,74413.9%47,193
San Joaquin52.6%105,40547.4%94,877
San Luis Obispo52.8%68,42947.2%61,203
San Mateo77.9%227,36822.1%64,390
Santa Barbara61.8%94,21938.2%58,149
Santa Clara73.7%468,85126.3%166,995
Santa Cruz78.1%90,87421.9%25,454
Shasta30.4%22,59269.6%51,608
Sierra36.6%61663.4%1,065
Siskiyou38.1%6,96161.9%11,295
Solano62.7%97,93537.3%58,372
Sonoma73.7%160,60226.3%57,419
Stanislaus45.5%69,24754.5%82,911
Sutter36.2%11,59363.8%20,458
Tehama27.6%6,38672.4%16,770
Trinity43.8%2,10656.2%2,699
Tulare38.9%41,00961.1%64,372
Tuolumne38.4%9,85061.6%15,832
Ventura57.2%182,47042.8%136,610
Yolo67.9%52,44432.1%24,769
Yuba34.2%7,96165.8%15,291
Totals61.88%7,944,092 38.12%4,894,473

On replacement candidates

Here are the results of the election by county for replacement candidates. Red represents counties won by Elder. Blue represents a county won by Paffrath.

CountyElderPaffrathFaulconerRossOthers
 %# %# %# %# %#
Alameda26.83%68,41018.65%47,5437.36%18,7556.69%17,06740.48%103,203
Alpine48.01%1577.65%253.98%134.89%1635.47%116
Amador60.68%8,8623.20%4677.30%1,0662.09%30526.74%3,905
Butte52.41%28,7056.48%3,5473.80%2,0833.43%1,87633.88%18,555
Calaveras62.61%10,6602.93%4996.33%1,0771.81%30926.32%4,481
Colusa54.48%2,5743.45%1634.08%1932.33%11035.66%1,685
Contra Costa37.99%91,26212.78%30,6967.15%17,1658.08%19,40734.00%81,670
Del Norte64.23%4,0944.14%2642.68%1713.36%21425.59%1,631
El Dorado53.01%37,5074.76%3,3687.30%5,1622.77%1,95932.16%22,753
Fresno59.85%103,0605.55%9,5517.27%12,5143.14%5,41124.20%41,669
Glenn58.60%4,2022.86%2052.23%1602.15%15434.17%2,450
Humboldt45.58%13,4838.55%2,5283.87%1,1455.11%1,51136.89%10,911
Imperial50.25%9,5645.73%1,0914.17%7938.15%1,55131.70%6,033
Inyo63.05%3,2754.95%2576.55%3403.31%17222.14%1,150
Kern67.79%99,9694.87%7,1884.50%6,6341.41%2,07621.43%31,609
Kings66.81%15,5774.25%9915.17%1,2052.04%47621.73%5,067
Lake52.23%7,2594.77%6633.54%4923.42%47536.04%5,008
Lassen69.58%6,2931.43%1292.58%2331.25%11325.17%2,276
Los Angeles43.59%648,06710.22%151,9448.29%123,3317.93%117,96129.97%445,562
Madera65.13%19,5303.12%9366.52%1,9542.20%66023.04%6,908
Marin29.88%15,90116.57%8,81712.06%6,41711.65%6,19829.85%15,887
Mariposa63.14%4,0864.99%3235.97%3862.50%16223.40%1,514
Mendocino42.40%7,7997.51%1,3824.75%8734.08%75041.26%7,589
Merced61.54%21,8304.30%1,5253.75%1,3292.24%79628.17%9,993
Modoc62.01%1,7531.84%522.12%601.27%3632.76%926
Mono53.40%1,6908.78%2787.74%2453.70%11726.38%835
Monterey44.39%27,84111.37%7,1304.92%3,0885.35%3,35433.98%21,312
Napa43.02%12,6139.73%2,8537.17%2,1016.28%1,84133.80%9,909
Nevada47.97%16,5466.93%2,3908.24%2,8413.33%1,14933.53%11,564
Orange57.37%423,2248.09%59,6947.74%57,1093.61%26,59923.19%171,030
Placer52.02%73,3095.11%7,2077.53%10,6132.92%4,11032.42%45,681
Plumas57.46%3,9183.37%2306.22%4242.11%14430.84%2,103
Riverside60.70%283,2176.01%28,0465.83%27,2143.94%18,37923.52%109,740
Sacramento45.93%147,7768.89%28,5858.88%28,5795.21%16,77231.09%100,010
San Benito49.03%6,8489.21%1,2873.32%4644.57%63833.87%4,731
San Bernardino61.59%225,6745.47%20,0425.27%19,2963.85%14,11923.82%87,295
San Diego46.58%355,41710.76%82,08914.96%114,1554.10%31,28923.59%180,009
San Francisco20.95%26,28521.07%26,43411.41%14,3176.69%8,38739.87%50,015
San Joaquin54.16%68,2305.59%7,0476.26%7,8895.60%7,05828.38%35,756
San Luis Obispo53.68%45,29810.90%9,1956.64%5,6072.92%2,46025.87%21,829
San Mateo30.82%41,16217.43%23,2718.87%11,8457.62%10,17935.26%47,091
Santa Barbara49.04%43,58210.51%9,3446.66%5,9214.09%3,63329.69%26,389
Santa Clara32.79%105,59017.86%57,5037.50%24,1666.70%21,56835.15%113,197
Santa Cruz31.49%17,49417.21%9,5625.33%2,9607.42%4,12338.55%21,420
Shasta60.09%36,0223.21%1,9222.72%1,6312.65%1,58631.34%18,788
Sierra56.70%6982.84%357.47%921.22%1531.76%391
Siskiyou60.89%8,1273.30%4412.99%3993.08%41129.74%3,970
Solano47.18%40,3876.79%5,8136.23%5,3368.33%7,13231.47%26,935
Sonoma37.42%38,13112.69%12,9366.69%6,8217.75%7,90335.44%36,119
Stanislaus57.99%58,8124.02%4,0756.74%6,8355.45%5,52625.80%26,171
Sutter52.54%12,4403.63%8595.21%1,2332.53%59836.10%8,546
Tehama61.90%11,5292.83%5272.42%4511.65%30731.20%5,812
Trinity53.38%1,7703.41%1132.59%862.20%7338.42%1,274
Tulare67.64%51,1523.85%2,9125.61%4,2412.46%1,85920.45%15,464
Tuolumne62.58%11,3743.32%6035.60%1,0172.41%43826.09%4,742
Ventura56.44%108,0437.79%14,9087.51%14,3723.76%7,20124.50%46,909
Yolo37.19%15,91110.40%4,45010.74%4,5966.83%2,92134.83%14,900
Yuba54.86%9,8784.68%8434.73%8512.08%37533.65%6,060
Totals48.41%3,563,8679.60%706,7788.02%590,3465.33%392,02928.64%2,108,548

By congressional district

On recall question

Khaki represents congressional districts won by No. Light blue represents congressional districts won by Yes.[335] All districts with incumbent Democratic representatives voted for No except one, and all districts with incumbent Republican representatives voted for Yes except two.

District Yes No Representative
1st 61.8% 38.2% Doug LaMalfa
2nd 26.8% 73.2% Jared Huffman
3rd 47.8% 52.2% John Garamendi
4th 58.9% 41.1% Tom McClintock
5th 28.0% 72.0% Mike Thompson
6th 30.2% 69.8% Doris Matsui
7th 46.0% 54.0% Ami Bera
8th 60.2% 39.8% Jay Obernolte
9th 44.8% 55.2% Jerry McNerney
10th 53.3% 46.7% Josh Harder
11th 25.9% 74.1% Mark DeSaulnier
12th 13.1% 86.9% Nancy Pelosi
13th 9.7% 90.3% Barbara Lee
14th 21.9% 78.1% Jackie Speier
15th 28.3% 71.7% Eric Swalwell
16th 45.8% 54.2% Jim Costa
17th 25.9% 74.1% Ro Khanna
18th 24.2% 75.8% Anna Eshoo
19th 28.3% 71.7% Zoe Lofgren
20th 28.5% 71.5% Jimmy Panetta
21st 51.4% 48.6% David Valadao
22nd 58.2% 41.8% Devin Nunes
23rd 63.6% 36.4% Kevin McCarthy
24th 42.3% 57.7% Salud Carbajal
25th 49.0% 51.0% Mike Garcia
26th 40.9% 59.1% Julia Brownley
27th 32.9% 67.1% Judy Chu
28th 26.3% 73.7% Adam Schiff
29th 24.3% 75.7% Tony Cárdenas
30th 31.4% 68.6% Brad Sherman
31st 45.2% 54.8% Pete Aguilar
32nd 35.4% 64.6% Grace Napolitano
33rd 33.4% 66.6% Ted Lieu
34th 15.7% 84.3% Jimmy Gomez
35th 37.6% 62.4% Norma Torres
36th 45.1% 54.9% Raul Ruiz
37th 14.4% 85.6% Karen Bass
38th 34.5% 65.5% Linda Sánchez
39th 47.7% 52.3% Young Kim
40th 21.3% 78.7% Lucille Roybal-Allard
41st 42.5% 57.5% Mark Takano
42nd 59.0% 41.0% Ken Calvert
43rd 22.8% 77.2% Maxine Waters
44th 20.0% 80.0% Nanette Barragán
45th 47.4% 52.6% Katie Porter
46th 35.7% 64.3% Lou Correa
47th 37.5% 62.5% Alan Lowenthal
48th 52.2% 47.8% Michelle Steel
49th 48.5% 51.5% Mike Levin
50th 58.7% 41.3% Darrell Issa
51st 34.6% 65.4% Juan Vargas
52nd 39.1% 60.9% Scott Peters
53rd 34.9% 65.1% Sara Jacobs

On replacement candidates

Elder swept all congressional districts except two, losing to Paffrath in 12th and 13th districts: the latter was the best performance for both Paffrath and Newsom.[336] Conversely, Elder's best result was in the 23rd district, which supported recalling Newsom the most.

District Elder Paffrath Faulconer Ross Representative
1st 57.07% 4.44% 4.17% 2.68% Doug LaMalfa
2nd 38.5% 12.19% 7.57% 7.83% Jared Huffman
3rd 49.32% 6.04% 6.69% 5.76% John Garamendi
4th 55.02% 4.67% 7.28% 2.74% Tom McClintock
5th 39.35% 11.14% 5.96% 7.18% Mike Thompson
6th 38.75% 11.26% 9.75% 6.26% Doris Matsui
7th 49.11% 7.71% 8.67% 4.86% Ami Bera
8th 66.79% 4.45% 4.71% 2.5% Jay Obernolte
9th 52.46% 6.28% 5.63% 6.47% Jerry McNerney
10th 57.57% 4.38% 6.46% 5.75% Josh Harder
11th 35.14% 14.07% 8.39% 7.66% Mark DeSaulnier
12th 19.82% 21.65% 11.7% 6.8% Nancy Pelosi
13th 14.65% 24.49% 8.31% 7.47% Barbara Lee
14th 31.02% 16.88% 8.3% 7.52% Jackie Speier
15th 36.62% 14.15% 6.81% 6.4% Eric Swalwell
16th 56.51% 5.49% 4.97% 3.15% Jim Costa
17th 30.95% 17.39% 6.96% 6.92% Ro Khanna
18th 31.53% 20.14% 9.63% 6.86% Anna Eshoo
19th 35.79% 15.05% 5.75% 6.33% Zoe Lofgren
20th 40.06% 13.24% 4.85% 6.0% Jimmy Panetta
21st 62.06% 5.29% 4.49% 2.61% David Valadao
22nd 64.59% 4.72% 7.5% 2.73% Devin Nunes
23rd 68.27% 4.44% 4.78% 1.61% Kevin McCarthy
24th 51.41% 10.69% 6.66% 3.51% Salud Carbajal
25th 60.07% 5.92% 6.16% 3.45% Mike Garcia
26th 54.97% 8.22% 7.83% 4.07% Julia Brownley
27th 45.39% 9.48% 10.45% 7.51% Judy Chu
28th 39.36% 12.99% 9.72% 6.99% Adam Schiff
29th 37.1% 10.46% 5.67% 7.41% Tony Cárdenas
30th 46.13% 10.44% 9.53% 6.81% Brad Sherman
31st 58.83% 5.92% 5.92% 4.09% Pete Aguilar
32nd 49.47% 7.18% 5.95% 9.05% Grace Napolitano
33rd 46.93% 11.43% 13.37% 5.52% Ted Lieu
34th 24.59% 13.66% 8.25% 11.51% Jimmy Gomez
35th 52.46% 7.17% 4.82% 6.73% Norma Torres
36th 57.48% 6.46% 5.66% 6.1% Raul Ruiz
37th 26.32% 15.24% 11.14% 15.27% Karen Bass
38th 50.43% 7.12% 5.28% 12.94% Linda Sánchez
39th 58.04% 7.15% 7.28% 6.78% Young Kim
40th 34.86% 9.86% 3.89% 13.74% Lucille Roybal-Allard
41st 55.31% 7.02% 5.26% 4.22% Mark Takano
42nd 65.62% 5.16% 6.01% 2.52% Ken Calvert
43rd 39.44% 11.72% 6.84% 5.68% Maxine Waters
44th 35.85% 10.45% 3.9% 6.17% Nanette Barragán
45th 57.5% 9.09% 8.08% 3.52% Katie Porter
46th 44.63% 10.25% 5.73% 4.35% Lou Correa
47th 48.67% 9.92% 7.56% 3.72% Alan Lowenthal
48th 60.31% 7.34% 8.58% 2.77% Michelle Steel
49th 54.14% 9.15% 12.51% 3.44% Mike Levin
50th 58.89% 6.27% 11.37% 2.74% Darrell Issa
51st 40.35% 12.05% 10.79% 5.36% Juan Vargas
52nd 41.9% 12.53% 19.15% 4.73% Scott Peters
53rd 40.3% 13.01% 15.1% 4.84% Sara Jacobs

Aftermath

Turnout and participation

The number of valid votes cast on the recall question (question 1) was vastly greater than the number cast on the replacement question (question 2). The Newsom campaign's official message to voters had been to vote "no" on the recall and to ignore the replacement question.[337][338]

Commentary after election

In an October 2021 interview with Chuck Todd at the Milken Institute Global Conference, Newsom commented on the personal impact of the recall, saying "it's hard", and that it was the result of "personal stupidity", which "took a life of its own" and was "weaponized" by opponents, and, "I mean, we colored it in. I took responsibility."[339]

Recall candidate Larry Elder's support for the Trump administration, being unpopular among California's electorate, as well as his status as a front-runner and likely gubernatorial replacement if the recall was successful, were reported to have helped Newsom defeat it.[340][341] Mid-summer polling conducted two months prior to election day suggested a close race.[340][341] Newsom ultimately defeated the recall with a margin of roughly 24 percent after mobilizing Democrats to vote with a message that framed the race as a referendum on him versus Elder and their pandemic policy proposals.[342] Newsom's campaigning had also invoked Elder's connections to the inner circle of former President Donald Trump,[340][341] as well as his history of provocative right-wing rhetoric as a radio talk show host.[343] Exit polling suggested the result fell along partisan lines, with 94 percent of self-reported Democrats saying they voted against the recall and 89 percent of self-reported Republicans saying they voted to remove Newsom from office.[342]

The recall was widely invoked following the victory of Republican Glenn Youngkin two months later in the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election (where Democrat Joe Biden had won in 2020 by 10 points); Virginia's race featured similar campaigning on education, the pandemic, and former President Trump.[344][345][346]

See also

Notes

General polling notes

  1. ↑ All individuals listed below are Republicans, except the ones labeled with a different party affiliation.
  2. ↑ All individuals listed below are Democrats, except the ones labeled with a different party affiliation.
  3. 1 2 3 4 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ↑ Includes "won't vote" with 3%
  5. ↑ Weighted by vote propensity
  6. ↑ Includes "would not vote" with 6%
  7. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  8. ↑ Stoner, Loebs, Trimino, and Moore with 1%; Lozano, Collins, Newman, Lodge, Richter, Martinez, Gallucci, Symmon, Furin, Le Roux, Stephens, Hillberg, Kaul, Hanink, Papagan, Marciniak, Lucey, Killens, Wildstar, Singh, Zacky, Bramante, and Mercuri with 0%
  9. ↑ Bramante, Gallucci, Lodge, Lozano, Lucey, Marciniak, Stoner, Trimino, and Wildstar with 1%; Collins, Furin, Hanink, Hillberg, Kaul, Killens, Le Roux, Loebs, Martinez, Mercuri, Moore, Newman, Papagan, Richter, Singh, Stephens, Symmon, and Zacky with 0%
  10. ↑ Bramante, Lodge, Lozano, Lucey, Marciniak, Stoner, Trimino, and Wildstar with 1%; Collins, Furin, Gallucci, Hanink, Hillberg, Kaul, Killens, Le Roux, Loebs, Martinez, Mercuri, Moore, Newman, Papagan, Richter, Singh, Stephens, Symmon, and Zacky with 0%
  11. ↑ Singh with 1%; Collins, Gallucci, Hanink, Loebs, Mercuri, Moore, Lodge, Lozano, Lucey, Bramante, Leroux, Martinez, Stoner, Newman, Richter, Stephens, Trimino, Zacky, Killens, and Wildstar with 0%
  12. ↑ Singh with 1%; Gallucci, Collins, Lodge, Mercuri, Hanink, Moore, Richter, Killens, Leroux, Loebs, Martinez, and Trimino with 0%
  13. ↑ Grenell with 5%; Cernovich, Mercuri, Moorlach, and Williams with 3%

Polling sponsor notes

  1. 1 2 3 Poll conducted for Cox's campaign
  2. ↑ Poll conducted for the California Republican Party
  3. 1 2 Poll conducted for Faulconer's campaign
  4. ↑ Poll conducted for Reform California

Other

  1. ↑ Due to legislation introduced by state Democratic lawmakers in 2017 to delay or prevent the recall of Democratic State Senator Josh Newman[46]
  2. ↑ The law also imposed a similar disclosure requirement on presidential candidates, primarily aimed at forcing Donald Trump to release his most recent tax returns when he ran in 2020. The disclosure requirement for presidential candidates was struck down by the courts.[137]
  3. 1 2 Southern California News Group has a single central editorial board for all of its newspapers, which include Daily Breeze, Inland Valley Daily Bulletin, Press-Telegram, Los Angeles Daily News, Orange County Register, Pasadena Star-News, Redlands Daily Facts, The Press-Enterprise, The San Bernardino Sun, San Gabriel Valley Tribune, and Whittier Daily News.[221]
  4. ↑ McClatchy issued a joint endorsement by the editorial boards for its California newspapers, which include The Sacramento Bee, The Fresno Bee, Merced Sun-Star, The Modesto Bee, The San Luis Obispo Tribune, and The Beaufort Gazette.
  5. ↑ The California Rifle and Pistol Association is the official California branch of the National Rifle Association.[305]
  6. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 The press release announcing the endorsement was made before the recall was announced, so the press release only references the 2022 campaign for governor.[308] The endorsements have been reported, with less details, in mainstream media outlets.[309]
  7. ↑ As a political organizer, Heatlie directed the successful effort to collect recall petition signatures from voters, which ultimately led to the recall election.[318]
  8. ↑ Moore was listed on the ballot as a "no party preference" because the Socialist Equality Party did not have ballot access in the State of California at the time the ballot was printed.[293]
  9. ↑ Loebs was listed on the ballot as a "no party preference" because the California National Party did not have ballot access in the State of California at the time the ballot was printed.[330]
  10. ↑ Richter was listed on the ballot as a "no party preference" because the Socialist Workers Party did not have ballot access in the State of California at the time the ballot was printed.[322]
  11. ↑ Hanink was listed on the ballot as "no party preference" and listed in the official Voter Information Guide as "no qualified party preference" because the party with which Hanink was registered, the American Solidarity Party, did not have ballot access at the time the ballot was printed. The party is attempting to qualify for ballot access in time for the 2022 California primaries.[331][332][333][334]

References

  1. ↑ "Recall Question – Statewide Results". September 14, 2021. Retrieved September 14, 2021.
  2. ↑ "California Recall Newsom Recall Vote". September 15, 2021. Retrieved September 15, 2021.
  3. ↑ Korte, Lara (July 1, 2021). "Gavin Newsom recall election date set: California voters to cast ballots in September". The Sacramento Bee. Retrieved July 1, 2021.
  4. ↑ Rosenhall, Laurel (July 1, 2021). "It's a date: Newsom recall election set for Sept. 14". CalMatters.
  5. 1 2 Blood, Michael R. (September 15, 2021). "GOP's Elder concedes California recall, hints: 'Stay tuned'". Associated Press. Archived from the original on September 15, 2021. Retrieved September 15, 2021.
  6. 1 2 Prokop, Andrew (August 23, 2021). "How California's bizarre recall system could elect a Republican governor". Vox.
  7. ↑ Olmsted, Kathryn (August 18, 2021). "Why Deep Blue California Could Elect a Bright Red Governor". The New York Times. Archived from the original on August 18, 2021.
  8. 1 2 Navarro, Aaron (February 1, 2021). "Recall threats are common in California. But the latest one against Gavin Newsom might get further than most". CBS News. Archived from the original on February 3, 2021. Retrieved February 2, 2021.
  9. 1 2 Lozano, Alicia Victoria (December 20, 2020). "California governor faces recall effort amid pandemic, dining at famed French Laundry". NBC News. Retrieved May 10, 2021.
  10. 1 2 "Recall History in California (1913 to Present)". California Secretary of State.
  11. ↑ Abruzzese, Sarah (February 19, 2021). "Gavin Newsom and the Coronavirus-Driven California Recall Effort". US News.
  12. 1 2 Brownstein, Ronald (May 13, 2021). "The Trouble With the Gavin Newsom Recall". The Atlantic. Retrieved May 26, 2021.
  13. ↑ "PETITION FOR RECALL" (PDF). rescuecalifornia.org.
  14. ↑ Cillizza, Chris (December 15, 2020). "How it all went so wrong for Gavin Newsom". CNN. Archived from the original on February 3, 2021. Retrieved December 16, 2020.
  15. 1 2 "Gavin Newsom recall, Governor of California (2019–2021)". Ballotpedia. Retrieved May 9, 2021.
  16. ↑ "PETITION FOR RECALL" (PDF). takecaback.org.
  17. 1 2 Marinucci, Carla (December 16, 2020). "Long shot Newsom recall drive gets serious in California". Politico. Archived from the original on February 3, 2021. Retrieved April 15, 2021.
  18. 1 2 3 4 ORRIN E. HEATLIE and CALIFORNIA PATRIOT COALITION – RECALL GOVERNOR GAVIN NEWSOM v. ALEX PADILLA (SUPERIOR COURT OF CALIFORNIA November 6, 2020), Text.
  19. 1 2 3 "Official Recall Petition". recallgavin2020.com. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 3, 2021.
  20. ↑ White, Jeremy B. (February 19, 2021). "Newsom recall drive faces tight finish based on latest California data". Politico. Archived from the original on February 20, 2021. Retrieved February 21, 2021.
  21. ↑ Tapp, Tom (February 19, 2021). "Gavin Newsom Recall Effort Delivers 1M Signatures To California Elections Officials". Deadline. Archived from the original on February 20, 2021. Retrieved February 21, 2021.
  22. 1 2 Ronayne, Kathleen (April 1, 2021). "Meet Orrin Heatlie, the ex-cop leading the push to recall California Gov. Gavin Newsom". The Desert Sun. [Heatlie] worked on the recall effort led by Erin Cruz, an unsuccessful candidate for U.S. House and Senate. Heatlie joined Cruz's group after seeing Newsom's immigration video and was made moderator of a Facebook group, using it to make contacts and assess the operation's flaws.
  23. ↑ Siders, David (March 19, 2021). "The Three Men Who Could Take Down Gavin Newsom". Politico. Retrieved November 20, 2021.
  24. ↑ "Recall of Governor Gavin Newsom, Filed by Orrin E. Heatlie: Extension of Time to Circulate Petitions and Revised Calendar of Events". memorandum No. 20251 of November 17, 2020 (PDF). Secretary of State of California.
  25. ↑ Stone, Ken (November 6, 2020). "Newsom Recall Drive Gets New Life: Signature Deadline Delayed to March 17". Times of San Diego. Archived from the original on February 3, 2021. Retrieved December 16, 2020.
  26. ↑ Korte, Lara (March 15, 2021). "'Lost in the shuffle.' Did Democrats miss a chance to block a Newsom recall election?". The Sacramento Bee.
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  227. ↑ Bernstein, Sharon (March 16, 2021). "Democrats, progressives fight California governor recall". Reuters. Retrieved April 14, 2021.
  228. ↑ Klein, Charlotte (September 8, 2021). "An Army of Democrats is Mobilizing to Save Gavin Newsom". Vanity Fair. Retrieved September 12, 2021.
  229. ↑ "Newsom, Elders swarm Southern California before recall vote". Los Angeles Times. September 7, 2021.
  230. 1 2 3 Wilson, Kathleen (September 8, 2021). "Candidates campaign in Ventura County as election nears; Democratic figures back Newsom". Ventura County Star. Retrieved September 12, 2021.
  231. ↑ Garofoli, Joe (May 3, 2021). "California Democrats stay on message in opposing Newsom recall". San Francisco Chronicle. Retrieved June 4, 2021.
  232. ↑ Hodgson, Mike (September 6, 2021). "Congressman Salud Carbajal offers updates on issues affecting 24th District". Santa Maria Times. Retrieved September 12, 2021.
  233. ↑ "Gov. Newsom implores Asian American community to vote in recall election". spectrumnews1.com.
  234. ↑ Lemon, Jason (September 9, 2021). "Where Gavin Newsom Stands in Polls 5 Days Ahead of California Recall Election". Newsweek. Archived from the original on September 9, 2021. Retrieved September 9, 2021.
  235. ↑ "Should California adopt a stricter recall election law? Bay Area Rep. Mark DeSaulnier weighs in". California News Times. February 18, 2021. Archived from the original on September 14, 2021. Retrieved September 15, 2021.
  236. ↑ John Bowden (May 2, 2021). "Harris, Pelosi backing Newsom amid recall effort". The Hill.
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  238. ↑ Deese, Kathleen (September 13, 2021). "Newsom hits at Texas abortion law, criticizing recall effort". Yahoo News. Retrieved September 15, 2021 – via Washington Examiner.
  239. 1 2 Kreutz, Liz (August 16, 2021). "Gov. Newsom ratchets up attacks on opponents in San Jose campaign stop". KGO-TV.
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  242. ↑ Reyes, Jesus (September 7, 2021). "Rep. Raul Ruiz casts his ballot in the recall election". kesq.com.
  243. ↑ Marinucci, Carla; White, Jeremy B.; Dadey, Camryn. "Final frenzy — will women save NEWSOM?". POLITICO.
  244. ↑ Wright, Sarah. "Recall campaign heats up in San Mateo County". Half Moon Bay Review. Retrieved September 12, 2021.
  245. ↑ "Stop the Republican Recall of Governor Gavin Newsom with Congresswoman Sara Jacobs 路 Sara Jacobs for Congress". Mobilize.us. Archived from the original on September 14, 2021. Retrieved September 15, 2021.
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  247. 1 2 3 4 5 "California API Members Denounce Recall Newsom Effort". KSRO. March 11, 2021. Archived from the original on April 15, 2021. Retrieved April 15, 2021.
  248. 1 2 3 Richards, Brandon (August 2, 2021). "Joint Release: Reproductive Freedom Advocates Sound Alarm on Extremist Recall Attempt". plannedparenthoodaction.org.
  249. ↑ "Why Sen. Bill Dodd is spending big to keep Gov. Newsom in office". September 2021.
  250. 1 2 White, Jeremy B. (April 2, 2021). "His polls are sinking. Democrats are mobilizing. The Newsom recall just got real". Politico. Retrieved February 4, 2021.
  251. 1 2 Bojórquez, Kim (April 8, 2021). "Democratic Latino leaders denounce Newsom recall after poll finds 'slippage' in support". sacbee.com. The Sacramento Bee. Retrieved April 16, 2021.
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  253. ↑ "Kamala Harris comes to Newsom's rescue, whether he needs it or not". September 8, 2021.
  254. ↑ "Local Democrats urge 'no' vote in recall election". www.bakersfield.com. The Bakersfield Californian. Retrieved August 18, 2021.
  255. ↑ Korte, Lara (August 27, 2021). "California recall candidate Larry Elder says 'systemic racism is a lie.' Here's why". The Sacramento Bee. Retrieved September 13, 2021.
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  259. ↑ "Labor, Community Leaders Urge 'No' Vote On Newsom Recall At Oakland Rally". KPIX-TV. August 25, 2021. Retrieved September 12, 2021.
  260. ↑ Mehta, Seemta; Wick, Julia (July 17, 2021). "As list of recall candidates takes shape, Jenner's in Australia for a TV show". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved July 24, 2021.
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  262. ↑ "In final campaign push with Newsom, Biden says 'eyes of the nation' are on California recall". Los Angeles Times. September 13, 2021.
  263. 1 2 3 "Hollywood Reacts to Gavin Newsom's Win in California Gubernatorial Recall Election". The Hollywood Reporter. September 14, 2021.
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  265. 1 2 "Editorial: Wake up, California! Removing Gavin Newsom would be a disaster". Los Angeles Times. August 13, 2021. Retrieved August 13, 2021.
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  267. ↑ "Vote 'no' on the recall, and fill out the entire California ballot. Here's why that's important". www.sacbee.com. The Sacramento Bee. August 14, 2021. Retrieved August 18, 2021.
  268. ↑ "Editorial: California voters should reject the Newsom recall". The Mercury News. July 17, 2021. Retrieved August 14, 2021.
  269. ↑ "Our endorsement in the effort to oust Newsom: Vote no, and let the governor finish the job". Monterey County Weekly. September 2, 2021. Retrieved September 5, 2021.
  270. ↑ "Our View: You must vote in the California Recall election". Napa Valley Register. August 7, 2021. Retrieved August 14, 2021.
  271. ↑ "California's Recall Election Is Broken". The New York Times. September 9, 2021. Archived from the original on December 28, 2021. Retrieved September 15, 2021.
  272. ↑ "Opinion: Recall Newsom? Vote no on this ridiculous and ridiculously expensive election, then fix the recall process". San Diego Union-Tribune. August 13, 2021. Retrieved August 14, 2021.
  273. ↑ "Endorsement: There is absolutely no justification for removing Gavin Newsom. Vote NO on the recall". Chronicle Editorial Board. San Francisco Chronicle. August 21, 2021.
  274. ↑ "Vote No on California Recall of Governor". Santa Barbara Independent. August 24, 2021. Retrieved August 30, 2021.
  275. ↑ "Coalition of ACLU California chapters announce opposition to Newsom recall". The Antelope Valley Times. July 29, 2021. Retrieved August 30, 2021.
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  277. ↑ "California Democratic Party Commits $250,000 to Stop the Republican Recall Campaign | CDP". www.cadem.org. California Democratic Party. March 15, 2021. Archived from the original on June 4, 2021. Retrieved June 4, 2021.
  278. ↑ "CFA: NO on Wasteful Recall". www.calfac.org. California Faculty Association. July 22, 2021.
  279. ↑ "What does CFT says about the recall? No, No, No!". CFT. CFT – A Union of Educators and Classified Professionals. May 25, 2021.
  280. ↑ "Protect Our Future – Vote NO on the Recall". California League of Conservation Voters. August 26, 2021. Archived from the original on August 28, 2021. Retrieved August 30, 2021.
  281. ↑ "Gavin Newsom". Climate Hawks Vote.
  282. ↑ "DGA Statement on California Recall Campaign". www.democraticgovernors.org. Democratic Governors Association. March 15, 2021. Retrieved August 8, 2021.
  283. ↑ "Statement on Gubernatorial Recall Election". DSA Los Angeles. August 12, 2021. Retrieved August 30, 2021.
  284. ↑ "Election Center". eqca.org.
  285. ↑ "GPCA Opposes Recall – Endorses Dan Kapelovitz". Green Party CA.
  286. ↑ Brookshire, Richard (August 23, 2021). "Human Rights Campaign Urges Californians To Vote No On Recall Question". www.hrc.org. Human Rights Campaign.
  287. ↑ Zavala, Ashley (May 5, 2021). "Firefighters join Gov. Newsom to speak out against recall effort". www.kron4.com. KRON-TV. Retrieved June 4, 2021.
  288. ↑ "STOP THE GOP RECALL IN CALIFORNIA". Jewish Democratic Council of America. August 25, 2021.
  289. ↑ "NARAL Pro-Choice California: A Vote to Recall Governor Newsom is a Vote Against Reproductive Freedom". NARAL Pro-Choice California. August 24, 2021.
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  291. ↑ "PEACE & FREEDOM PARTY OPPOSES RECALL OF NEWSOM". peaceandfreedom.us. Peace and Freedom Party. March 31, 2021.
  292. ↑ Marinucci, Carla; Tzul, Richard (May 28, 2021). "10 dead after MASS SHOOTING in San Jose — NEWSOM: 'The hell's wrong with us?' — JENNER hits East Coast media — MANDATORY water restrictions on the way?". Politico. Retrieved May 31, 2021.
  293. 1 2 3 Socialist Equality Party (July 23, 2021). "David Moore to run as the Socialist Equality Party candidate in the California gubernatorial recall election". World Socialist Web Site. Retrieved August 22, 2021.
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  295. ↑ White, Jeremy B.; Marinucci, Carla; Tzul, Richard (June 25, 2021). "CA backlash to TECH push — PELOSI announces JAN. 6 committee — NEWSOM wildfire defense — KAMALA staff departures". Politico. Retrieved July 24, 2021.
  296. ↑ Dan Verbin (July 16, 2021). "Dov Hikind endorses Larry Elder for CA governor, calls him the 'ultimate mensch'". ArutzSheva7.
  297. ↑ D'Urso, William (August 25, 2021). "Orange County GOP chair endorses Larry Elder for governor". spectrumnews1.com. Retrieved August 26, 2021.
  298. ↑ Roos, Meghan (September 10, 2021). "Rose McGowan Alleges Gavin Newsom's Wife Tried to Bribe Her Before Harvey Weinstein Scandal Broke". Newsweek.
  299. ↑ Gentile, Luke (September 15, 2021). "Dodgers legend Mike Piazza calls on Californians to elect Larry Elder". Yahoo! News. Retrieved September 16, 2021 – via The Washington Examiner.
  300. ↑ Albough, Greg (July 22, 2021). "Conservative Powerhouse Restored To California Governor's Recall Race". Citizens Journal.
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  303. ↑ California College Republicans [@cacollegegop] (August 2, 2021). "#BreakingNews: CCR Unanimously Endorses @larryelder for Governor of California. #RecallGavinNewsom #cagop CC: @JeremyBWhite @cmarinucci" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
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  312. ↑ "American Solidarity Party". American Solidarity Party of California. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  313. ↑ "Jeff Hewit Announces his run for Governor on the Libertarian Party Ticket". Libertarian Party of California. May 22, 2021. Retrieved July 25, 2021.
  314. ↑ "Green Party of California endorses Dan Kapelovitz". Green Party US.
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  317. ↑ Ronayne, Kathleen (April 1, 2021). "Former California cop leads GOP dream of Newsom recall". Associated Press.
  318. ↑ Ronayne, Kathleen (April 1, 2021). "Meet Orrin Heatlie, the ex-cop leading the push to recall California Gov. Gavin Newsom". The Desert Sun.
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  320. ↑ Loebs, Michael (April 19, 2021). "CNP Endorses Michael Loebs for Governor". California National Party.
  321. ↑ "SWP running for governor in California special election – The Militant". The Militant. Retrieved August 22, 2021.
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  326. ↑ "California Gubernatorial Recall Election - Statement of Vote, September 14, 2021". Secretary of State California.
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  328. 1 2 "California Gubernatorial Recall Election Results". Election Results.
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  330. ↑ Ting, Eric (June 21, 2021). "This SFSU Calif. secessionist is Newsom's most fascinating recall foe". SF Gate. Retrieved July 20, 2021.
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  332. ↑ Winger, Richard (August 18, 2021). "California Secretary of State Makes a Tiny Concession to Unqualified Parties in the Official Voter Information Guide". Ballot Access News. Retrieved August 22, 2021.
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  337. ↑ Christopher, Ben (September 18, 2021). "'Nobody' Beat GOP Frontrunner Larry Elder by Wide Margin in California Recall". Times of San Diego. Retrieved September 19, 2021.
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  342. 1 2 Rosenhall, Laurel (September 16, 2021). "A partisan recall puts California Republican Party in disarray". CalMatters. Retrieved October 28, 2021.
  343. ↑ "Column: Larry Elder joining the recall race was the best thing that could've happened to Newsom". Los Angeles Times. September 13, 2021.
  344. ↑ Kilgore, Ed (November 3, 2021). "MAGA Without the Madness Wins". Intelligencer.
  345. ↑ Prokop, Andrew (November 3, 2021). "What Glenn Youngkin's Virginia win means for Democrats". Vox.
  346. ↑ Godfrey, Elaine; Berman, Russell (November 2, 2021). "If Democrats Can Lose in Virginia, They Can Lose Almost Anywhere". The Atlantic.

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