In the run-up to the next Australian federal election, it is expected a number of polling companies will conduct regular opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls will collect data on parties' primary vote, and likely contain an estimation of the two-party-preferred vote.

Graphical summary

Primary vote

Two-party preferred

Voting intention

2024

Date Brand Interview mode Sample
size		 Primary vote 2pp vote[lower-alpha 1]
L/NP ALP GRN ONP UAP OTH UND ALP L/NP
1–7 January 2024 Roy Morgan[1] Online 1,716 39% 29% 13% 5% — 14% — 49% 51%

2023

Date Brand Interview mode Sample
size		 Primary vote 2pp vote[lower-alpha 2]
L/NP ALP GRN ONP UAP OTH UND ALP L/NP
15–17 December 2023 Freshwater Strategy[2] Online 1,109 39% 31% 13% — — 16% — 50% 50%
11–17 December 2023 Roy Morgan[3] Online 1,109 38% 32% 11.5% 4.5% — 14% — 50% 50%
11–15 December 2023 Newspoll[4] Online 1,219 36% 33% 13% 7% — 11% — 52% 48%
6–11 December 2023 Essential[5] Online 1,102 34% 31% 13% 6% 2% 9% 5% 49% 46%
6–11 December 2023 RedBridge Group[6] Online 2,010 35% 33% 13% — — 19% — 52.8% 47.2%
1–5 December 2023 YouGov[7][8] Online 1,555 36% 29% 15% 7% — 13% — 51% 49%
29 November–3 December 2023 Resolve Strategic[9][10] Online 1,605 34% 35% 12% 5% 1% 12% — 55% 45%
27 November–3 December 2023 Roy Morgan[11] — 1,730 37.5% 32.5% 12.5% 5% — 12.5% — 51% 49%
22–26 November 2023 Essential[5] Online 1,151 34% 31% 13% 7% 1% 8% 6% 48% 47%
20–26 November 2023 Roy Morgan[12] — 1,379 35% 32% 13.5% 5% — 14.5% — 52.5% 47.5%
20–24 November 2023 Newspoll[13] Online 1,216 38% 31% 13% 6% — 12% — 50% 50%
13–19 November 2023 Roy Morgan[14] — 1,401 37.5% 29.5% 13.5% 6.5% — 13% — 49.5% 50.5%
10–14 November 2023 YouGov[15] Online 1,582 36% 31% 13% 7% — 13% — 51% 49%
8–12 November 2023 Essential[5] Online 1,150 34% 32% 12% 7% 2% 8% 5% 49% 47%
6–12 November 2023 Roy Morgan[16] — 1,397 36.5% 30% 13% 6% — 14.5% — 50% 50%
1–5 November 2023 Resolve Strategic[17] Online 1,602 30% 35% 13% 7% 2% 13% — 57% 43%
30 October–3 November 2023 Newspoll[18] Online 1,220 37% 35% 12% 6% — 10% — 52% 48%
27 October–2 November 2023 RedBridge Group[19] Online 1,205 35% 34% 14% — — 17% — 53.5% 46.5%
25–29 October 2023 Essential[5] Online 1,149 34% 32% 10% 7% 3% 9% 6% 48% 46%
23–29 October 2023 Roy Morgan[20] — 1,375 35% 32.5% 15% — — 17.5% — 53% 47%
16–22 October 2023 Roy Morgan[21] — 1,383 36% 32% 14% 4.5% — 13.5% — 49.5% 50.5%
14 October 2023 The 2023 Australian Indigenous Voice referendum is defeated
4–12 October 2023 Newspoll[22] Online 2,638 35% 36% 12% 6% — 11% — 54% 46%
6–10 October 2023 YouGov[23] Online 1,519 36% 33% 14% 6% — 11% — 53% 47%
3–6 October 2023 Newspoll[24][25] Online 1,225 36% 34% 12% 5% — 13% — 53% 47%
22 September–4 October 2023 Resolve Strategic[26][27] Online 4,728 31% 37% 12% 7% 2% 11% — 57% 43%
27 September–1 October 2023 Essential[5] Online 1,125 32% 33% 14% 6% 2% 7% 5% 50% 45%
25–29 September 2023 YouGov[28][29] Online 1,563 35% 33% 13% — — 19% — 53% 47%
22–24 September 2023 Freshwater Strategy[30] Online 1,003 37% 33% 13% — — 17% — 51% 49%
18–22 September 2023 Newspoll[31][32] Online 1,239 36% 36% 11% 6% — 11% — 54% 46%
13–17 September 2023 Essential[5] Online 1,135 32% 31% 13% 8% 2% 8% 6% 49% 45%
4–10 September 2023 Roy Morgan[33] — 1,382 37% 32% 13.5% — — 17.5% — 52.5% 47.5%
6–9 September 2023 Resolve Strategic[34][35] Online 1,604 34% 36% 12% 5% 2% 11% — 55.5% 44.5%
30 August–4 September 2023 RedBridge Group[36] Online 1,001 36% 37% 13% — — 14% — 54.1% 45.9%
30 August–3 September 2023 Essential[5] Online 1,151 32% 31% 15% 7% 2% 7% 6% 51% 43%
28 August–3 September 2023 Roy Morgan[37] — 1,404 37.5% 33.5% 13% — — 16% — 53% 47%
28 August–1 September 2023 Newspoll[38] Online 1,200 37% 35% 13% 7% — 8% — 53% 47%
16–20 August 2023 Essential[5][39] Online 1,151 33% 33% 14% 5% 3% 7% 6% 51% 43%
10–14 August 2023 RedBridge Group[40] Online 1,010 32% 38% 10% — — 21% — 55.6% 44.4%
9–13 August 2023 Resolve Strategic[41][42] Online 1,603 33% 37% 11% 5% 2% 12% — 56% 44%
2–6 August 2023 Essential[5][43] Online 1,150 30% 33% 12% 8% 2% 8% 6% 52% 42%
19–23 July 2023 Essential[5][44] Online 1,150 32% 31% 14% 7% 1% 9% 6% 50% 45%
15 July 2023 LNP re-elected in the 2023 Fadden by-election
12–15 July 2023 Resolve Strategic[45][46] Online 1,610 30% 39% 11% 6% 1% 11% — 59% 41%
12–15 July 2023 Newspoll[47][48] Online 1,570 34% 36% 12% 7% — 11% — 55% 45%
5–9 July 2023 Essential[5][49] Online 2,248 32% 32% 14% 8% 1% 8% 5% 51% 44%
21–25 June 2023 Essential[5] Online 1,148 30% 32% 14% 7% 2% 11% 6% 52% 42%
16–24 June 2023 Newspoll[50][51] Online 2,303 35% 38% 11% 6% — 10% — 54% 46%
7–11 June 2023 Essential[5] Online 1,123 32% 32% 16% 5% 1% 9% 5% 52% 42%
6–11 June 2023 Resolve Strategic[52][53] Online 1,606 30% 40% 12% 6% 2% 10% — 60% 40%
31 May – 3 June 2023 Newspoll[54][55] Online 1,549 34% 38% 12% 6% — 10% — 55% 45%
24–28 May 2023 Essential[5] Online 1,138 31% 34% 15% 6% 2% 7% 5% 52% 43%
15–17 May 2023 Freshwater Strategy[56][57] Online 1,005 37% 34% 12% — — 17% — 52% 48%
10–14 May 2023 Essential[5][58] Online 1,080 31% 35% 14% 5% 1% 8% 5% 53% 42%
11–13 May 2023 Newspoll[59][60] Online 1,516 34% 38% 11% 7% — 10% — 55% 45%
10–13 May 2023 Resolve Strategic[61][62] Online 1,610 30% 42% 12% 5% 2% 8% 2% 61% 39%
26–30 April 2023 Essential[5][63] Online 1,130 32% 33% 14% 5% 2% 8% 5% 53% 41%
19–22 April 2023 Newspoll[64][65] Online 1,514 33% 38% 11% 7% — 11% — 56% 44%
12–16 April 2023 Essential[5][66] Online 1,136 31% 34% 14% 6% 3% 9% 4% 52% 43%
12–16 April 2023 Resolve Strategic[67][68] Online 1,609 28% 42% 12% 6% 1% 11% — 61.5% 38.5%
29 March – 2 April 2023 Essential[5][69] Online 1,133 30% 33% 14% 6% 2% 10% 5% 53% 42%
29 March – 1 April 2023 Newspoll[70] Online 1,500 33% 38% 10% 8% — 11% — 55% 45%
1 April 2023 Labor wins the 2023 Aston by-election
15–20 March 2023 Essential[5][71] Online 1,124 31% 34% 14% 5% 2% 9% 5% 52% 43%
12–16 March 2023 Resolve Strategic[72][71] Online 1,600 30% 39% 13% 5% 1% 11% — 60% 40%
1–5 March 2023 Essential[5] Online 1,141 32% 32% 12% 7% 2% 10% 7% 49% 44%
27 February – 5 March 2023 Roy Morgan — — 33.5% 38% 11.5% — — 17% — 54.5% 45.5%
1–4 March 2023 Newspoll[73] Online 1,530 35% 37% 10% 7% — 11% — 54% 46%
20–26 February 2023 Roy Morgan — — 34.5% 37% 13.5% — — 15% — 56.5% 43.5%
15–19 February 2023 Essential[5] Online 1,044 30% 33% 14% 6% 3% 8% 8% 51% 42%
15–19 February 2023 Resolve Strategic[74][75] Online 1,604 31% 40% 10% 5% 1% 11% — 57.9% 42.1%
13–19 February 2023 Roy Morgan Online/Telephone — 33% 37% 13% — — 17% — 58.5% 41.5%
1–6 February 2023 Essential[5] Online 1,000 30% 33% 17% 6% 1% 15% 5% 55% 40%
1–4 February 2023 Newspoll[76][77] Online 1,512 34% 38% 11% 6% 1% 10% — 55% 45%
23–29 January 2023 Roy Morgan — — 33.5% 37.5% 11.5% — — 17.5% — 57% 43%
18–22 January 2023 Essential[5][78] Online 1,050 31% 34% 14% 8% 1% 7% 5% 53% 42%
17–22 January 2023 Resolve Strategic[79][78] Online 1,606 29% 42% 11% 6% 2% 11% — 60% 40%

2022

Date Brand Interview mode Sample
size		 Primary vote 2pp vote[lower-alpha 3]
L/NP ALP GRN ONP UAP OTH UND ALP L/NP
23 December 2022 Andrew Gee leaves the Nationals to become an Independent
16–18 December 2022 Freshwater Strategy[80][81][82] Online 1,209 37% 37% 12% 4% 1% 9% — 54% 46%
7–11 December 2022 Essential[5] Online 1,042 30% 35% 13% 6% 3% 17% 5% 51% 44%
30 November–4 December 2022 Resolve Strategic[83][84] Online 1,611 30% 42% 11% 4% 2% 8% — 60% 40%
30 November–3 December 2022 Newspoll[85] Online 1,508 35% 39% 11% 6% 1% 9% — 55% 45%
23–27 November 2022 Essential[85][86] Online 1,042 31% 33% 13% — — 17% 6% 51% 43%
27–30 October 2022 Newspoll-YouGov[87] Online 1,500 35% 38% 11% 6% 1% 9% — 55% 45%
26–30 October 2022 Resolve Strategic[88][87] Online 1,611 32% 39% 13% 4% 1% 11% — 57.4%[lower-alpha 4] 42.6%
5–9 October 2022 Resolve Strategic[89][90] Online 1,604 30% 39% 12% 5% 3% 11% — 58.3% 41.7%
14–18 September 2022 Resolve Strategic[91][92] Online 1,607 32% 39% 10% 6% 2% 11% — 57% 43%
31 August–3 September 2022 Newspoll-YouGov[93][94] Online 1,505 31% 37% 13.5% 7% 2% 10% — 57% 43%
17–21 August 2022 Resolve Strategic[95][96] Online 2,011 28% 42% 12% 5% 2% 11% — 61.3% 38.7%
27–30 July 2022 Newspoll-YouGov[97][98] Online 1,508 33% 37% 12% 6% 2% 10% — 56% 44%
14–17 June 2022 Dynata[99] Online 1,001 31% 34% 12% 4% 4% 7% 9% 52.2%[lower-alpha 5] 47.8%
13–19 June 2022 Roy Morgan[100] Online/telephone 1,401 37% 36% 11% 4% 0.5% 11.5% — 53% 47%
29 May 2022 Peter Dutton elected unopposed as Leader of the Liberal Party[101]
21 May 2022 Election[102][103] 35.7% 32.6% 12.2% 5.0% 4.1% 10.4% — 52.1% 47.9%
  1. ↑ Resolve Strategic Poll 2PP calculated based on preference flows at the 2022 Australian federal election by the Poll Bludger and psephologist Kevin Bonham.
  2. ↑ Resolve Strategic Poll 2PP calculated based on preference flows at the 2022 Australian federal election by the Poll Bludger and psephologist Kevin Bonham.
  3. ↑ Resolve Strategic Poll 2PP calculated based on preference flows at the 2022 Australian federal election by the Poll Bludger and Kevin Bonham.
  4. ↑ Calculated using the Australian Federal Two-Party-Preferred Estimator from Armarium Interrata. Does not account undecided voters.
  5. ↑ Calculated using the Australian Federal Two-Party-Preferred Estimator from Armarium Interreta. Does not account undecided voters.

Preferred prime minister and leadership polling

Graphical summary

The following graphical summaries illustrate results from opinion polling for preferred Prime Minister and their respective approval ratings based on data below that is documented in the tables.

Preferred Prime Minister

Leadership approval ratings

Note: Green line means Satisfied, Pink line means Dissatisfied and Grey line means Don’t Know

Albanese

Dutton

Preferred Prime Minister and leadership polling table

2023
Date Firm Interview mode Sample Preferred Prime Minister Albanese Dutton
Albanese Dutton Don't Know Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't Know Net Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't Know Net
15–17 December 2023 Freshwater Strategy[2] Online 1,109 43% 39% 18%[lower-alpha 1] 37% 42% 20% −5% 34% 36% 30% −2%
11–15 December 2023 Newspoll[4] Online 1,219 46% 35% 19% 42% 50% 8% −8% 39% 48% 13% −9%
1–5 December 2023 YouGov[7][8] Online 1,555 46% 36% 18% 39% 55% 6% −16% 39% 48% 13% −9%
29 November–3 December 2023 Resolve Strategic[9] Online 1,605 42% 28% 30% 37% 48% 15% −11% 34% 42% 24% −8%
22–26 November 2023 Essential[104] Online 1,151 — — — 42% 47% 12% -5% 39% 42% 19% −3%
20–24 November 2023 Newspoll[13] Online 1,216 46% 35% 19% 40% 53% 7% −13% 37% 50% 13% −13%
10–14 November 2023 YouGov[15][105] Online 1,582 48% 34% 18% 43% 50% 7% −7% 40% 47% 13% −7%
1–5 November 2023 Resolve Strategic[17] Online 1,602 40% 27% 33% 39% 46% 15% −7% 36% 40% 25% −4%
30 October–3 November 2023 Newspoll[18] Online 1,220 46% 36% 18% 42% 52% 6% −10% 37% 50% 13% −13%
11–14 October 2023 Essential[106] Online 1,125 — — — 46% 43% 11% +3% 36% 43% 21% −7%
4–12 October 2023 Newspoll[22] Online 2,638 51% 31% 18% 46% 46% 8% 0% 35% 53% 12% −18%
6–10 October 2023 YouGov[23][105] Online 1,519 50% 34% 16% 45% 48% 7% −3% 38% 50% 12% −12%
3–6 October 2023 Newspoll[24][25] Online 1,225 50% 33% 17% 45% 46% 9% −1% 37% 50% 13% −13%
22 September–4 October 2023 Resolve Strategic[26][27] Online 1,604 47% 25% 28% 43% 43% 14% 0% 30% 45% 25% −15%
25–29 September 2023 YouGov[28][105] Online 1,563 50% 33% 17% — — — — — — — —
22–24 September 2023 Freshwater Strategy[30] Online 1,003 46% 37% 17%[lower-alpha 2] 38% 41% 21% −3% 30% 40% 30% −10%
18–22 September 2023 Newspoll[31][32] Online 1,239 50% 30% 20% 47% 44% 9% +3% 32% 52% 16% −20%
6–9 September 2023 Resolve Strategic[34][35] Online 1,604 43% 28% 29% 40% 47% 13% −7% 35% 43% 22% −8%
30 August–3 September 2023 Essential[107] Online 1,151 — — — 46% 43% 10% +3% 38% 43% 19% −5%
28 August–1 September 2023 Newspoll[38] Online 1,200 50% 31% 19% 46% 47% 7% −1% 38% 49% 13% −11%
9-13 August 2023 Resolve Strategic[41][42] Online 1,603 46% 25% 29% 44% 42% 14% +2% 31% 44% 24% −13%
19-23 July 2023 Essential[44][108] Online 1,150 — — — 48% 41% 11% +7% 37% 43% 20% −6%
12-15 July 2023 Resolve Strategic[45][46] Online 1,610 51% 21% 28% 51% 34% 15% +17% 31% 47% 23% −16%
12-15 July 2023 Newspoll[47] Online 1,570 54% 29% 17% 52% 41% 7% +11% 36% 49% 15% −13%
16-24 June 2023 Newspoll[50] Online 2,303 52% 32% 16% 52% 42% 6% +10% 38% 49% 13% −11%
29 May - 12 June 2023 CT Group[109] Online 3,000 — — — 42% 36% 22% +6% — — — —
6–11 June 2023 Resolve Strategic[52][53] Online 1,606 53% 22% 25% 53% 35% 13% +18% 28% 48% 24% −20%
31 May – 3 June 2023 Newspoll[54] Online 1,549 55% 28% 17% 55% 37% 8% +18% 36% 50% 14% −14%
15-17 May 2023 Freshwater Strategy[56][57] Online 1,005 51% 33% 16%[lower-alpha 3] 42% 37% 21% +5% 30% 42% 28% −12%
10–14 May 2023 Essential[110] Online 1,125 — — — 54% 35% 11% +19% 36% 45% 19% −9%
11-13 May 2023 Newspoll[59][60] Online 1,516 56% 29% 15% 57% 38% 5% +19% 36% 51% 13% −15%
10–13 May 2023 Resolve Strategic[61][62] Online 1,610 53% 20% 27% 56% 29% 14% +27% 28% 49% 23% −21%
19–22 April 2023 Newspoll[64][65] Online 1,514 54% 28% 18% 53% 37% 10% +16% 33% 52% 15% −19%
12–16 April 2023 Essential[111] Online 1,136 — — — 51% 36% 12% +15% 36% 44% 20% −8%
12–16 April 2023 Resolve Strategic[67][68] Online 1,609 55% 21% 24% 56% 29% 14% +27% 26% 54% 19% −28%
29 March – 2 April 2023 Essential[112] Online 1,133 — — — 52% 35% 13% +17% — — — —
29 March – 1 April 2023 Newspoll Online 1,500 58% 26% 16% 56% 35% 9% +21% 35% 48% 21% −13%
12–16 March 2023 Resolve Strategic[72][71] Online 1,600 51% 22% 27% 55% 31% 13% +24% 32% 44% 25% −12%
1–4 March 2023 Newspoll Online 1,530 54% 28% 18% 55% 38% 7% +17% 37% 48% 15% −11%
15–21 February 2023 Morning Consult — — — — — 57% 31% 12% +26% — — — —
15–19 February 2023 Essential[113] Online 1,044 — — — 53% 34% 13% +19% — — — —
15–19 February 2023 Resolve Strategic[74][75] Online 1,604 55% 23% 22% 56% 30% 13% +26% 29% 45% 26% −16%
1–4 February 2023 Newspoll[76][77] Online 1,512 56% 26% 18% 57% 33% 10% +24% 36% 46% 18% −10%
18–22 January 2023 Essential[114] Online 1,050 — — — 55% 31% 13% +24% — — — —
17–22 January 2023 Resolve Strategic[79][78] Online 1,606 55% 20% 25% 60% 25% 15% +35% 28% 46% 26% −18%
2022
Date Firm Interview mode Sample Preferred Prime Minister Albanese Dutton
Albanese Dutton Don't Know Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't Know Net Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't Know Net
16-18 December 2022 Freshwater Strategy[80][81][82] Online 1,209 55% 29% 16%[lower-alpha 4] – – – – – – – –
7–11 December 2022 Essential[115] Online 1,042 – – – 60% 27% 13% +33% – – – –
30 November – 4 December 2022 Resolve Strategic[83][84] Online 1,611 54% 19% 27% 60% 24% 16% +36% 28% 43% 29% –15%
30 November – 3 December 2022 Newspoll[85] Online 1,508 59% 24% 17% 62% 29% 9% +33% 36% 45% 19% –9%
16–22 November 2022 Morning Consult[116] Online — – – – 56% 31% 25% +25% – – – –
9–14 November 2022 Essential[117] Online 1,035 – – – 60% 27% 13% +33% – – – –
27–30 October 2022 Newspoll[87] Online 1,500 54% 27% 19% 59% 33% 8% +26% 39% 46% 15% –7%
26–30 October 2022 Resolve Strategic[88][87][118] Online 1,611 53% 19% 28% 57% 28% 16% +29% 29% 41% 30% –12%
13–16 October 2022 Freshwater Strategic[lower-alpha 5][119] Online 1,042 – – – 50% 26% 24% +24% 33% 34% 33% –1%
11–16 October 2022 Essential[120] Online 1,122 – – – 58% 26% 15% +32% – – – –
5–9 October 2022 Resolve Strategic[89][90] Online 1,604 53% 18% 29% 60% 25% 15% +35% 30% 41% 28% –11%
14–18 September 2022 Resolve Strategic[91][92] Online 1,607 53% 19% 28% 60% 24% 16% +36% 28% 40% 32% –12%
31 August – 4 September 2022 Essential[121] Online 1,070 — — — 59% 25% 15% +34% — — — —
31 August – 3 September 2022 Newspoll[93] Online 1,505 61% 22% 17% 61% 29% 10% +32% 35% 43% 22% –8%
17–21 August 2022 Resolve Strategic[95][96] Online 2,011 55% 17% 28% 61% 22% 17% +39% 30% 37% 32% –7%
3–7 August 2022 Essential[122] Online 1,075 — — — 55% 28% 18% +27% — — — —
27–30 July 2022 Newspoll-YouGov[97] Online 1,508 59% 25% 16% 61% 26% 13% +35% 37% 41% 22% –4%
7–11 July 2022 Essential[123] Online 1,097 — — — 56% 24% 20% +32% — — — —
8–12 June 2022 Essential[124] Online 1,087 — — — 59% 18% 23% +41% — — — —
23–31 May 2022 Morning Consult[125] Online 3,770 — — — 51% 24% 25% +27% — — — —
  1. ↑ Total of 5% "Unsure" + 13% "Neither"
  2. ↑ Total of 3% "Unsure" + 14% "Neither"
  3. ↑ Total of 5% "Unsure" + 11% "Neither"
  4. ↑ Total of 4% "Unsure" + 12% "Neither"
  5. ↑ Polling conducted in NSW.

Sub-national polling

New South Wales

Graphical summary

Graphical summary of opinion polls for primary votes.
Graphical summary of opinion polls for two-party preferred.
Polling
Date Firm Sample
size		 Primary vote 2pp vote[lower-alpha 1]
L/NP ALP GRN ONP UAP IND OTH ALP L/NP
31 October - 15 December 2023 Newspoll[126] 1,139 37% 32% 13% 7% — — 11% 51% 49%
28 August - 12 October 2023 Newspoll[126] 1,565 34% 38% 13% 5% — — 10% 56% 44%
22 Sept - 4 Oct 2023 Resolve Strategic[26] — 32% 34% 13% 8% 2% 10% 2%
6-9 Sep 2023 Resolve Strategic[34] — 36% 39% 8% 6% 2% 7% 3%
09–12 Aug 2023 Resolve Strategic[41] — 34% 42% 11% 4% 1% 8% 1%
12–15 July 2023 Resolve Strategic[45] — 32% 39% 10% 9% 0% 8% 2%
6–11 June 2023 Resolve Strategic[52] — 33% 39% 10% 6% 1% 9% 2% 56.1% 43.9%
14-16 May 2023 Resolve Strategic[61] — 30% 46% 9% 5% 1% 7% 2% 60.8% 39.2%
21 April 2023 Mark Speakman is elected leader of the NSW Liberal Party
1 February - 3 April 2023 Newspoll[126] 1,414 35% 38% 10% 7% — — 10% 55% 45%
25 March 2023 Labor wins a minority government at the state election
12-16 March 2023 Resolve Strategic — 35% 39% 11% 5% 1% 7% 2% 54.9% 45.1%
15 - 19 February 2023 Resolve Strategic — 31% 41% 10% 6% 1% 9% 2% 57.5% 42.5%
17 - 22 January 2023 Resolve Strategic — 31% 40% 10% 8% 2% 7% 2% 57.5% 42.5%
30 November - 4 December 2022 Resolve Strategic — 33% 38% 12% 5% 3% 8% 2% 55.5% 45.5%
27 July - 3 December 2022 Newspoll[126] 1,817 35% 38% 11% 6% — — 10% 55% 45%
26-30 October 2022 Resolve Strategic[88] — 32% 41% 10% 6% 1% 8% 2% 57.9% 42.1%
5-9 October 2022 Resolve Strategic[89] — 32% 39% 12% 6% 3% 7% 2% 57.9% 42.1%
14–18 September 2022 Resolve Strategic[91] — 29% 41% 9% 7% 3% 9% 3% 59.4% 40.6%
17–21 August 2022 Resolve Strategic[95] — 29% 42% 11% 5% 2% 8% 3% 60.6% 39.4%
21 June 2022 Roy Morgan[100] — — — — — — — — 46.5% 53.5%
21 May 2022 Election 36.5% 33.4% 10% 4.8% 4% 7.6% 3.7% 51.4% 48.6%
  1. ↑ Resolve Strategic 2PP calculated based on preference flows at the 2022 Australian federal election in New South Wales.

Victoria

Graphical summary

Graphical summary of opinion polls for primary votes.
Graphical summary of opinion polls for two-party preferred.
Polling
Date Firm Sample
size		 Primary vote 2pp vote[lower-alpha 1]
L/NP ALP GRN UAP ONP IND OTH ALP L/NP
31 October - 15 December 2023 Newspoll[126] 917 34% 34% 15% 5% — — 12% 55% 45%
28 August - 12 October 2023 Newspoll[126] 887 35% 36% 13% 4% — — 12% 54% 46%
22 Sept - 4 Oct 2023 Resolve Strategic[26] — 30% 39% 11% 2% 6% 8% 2%
6-9 Sep 2023 Resolve Strategic[34] — 32% 40% 13% 2% 3% 8% 2%
09–12 Aug 2023 Resolve Strategic[41] — 30% 38% 14% 1% 3% 10% 4%
12–15 July 2023 Resolve Strategic[45] — 26% 42% 13% 2% 5% 9% 3%
6–11 June 2023 Resolve Strategic[52] — 25% 40% 15% 3% 6% 7% 4% 62.2% 37.8%
14-16 May 2023 Resolve Strategic[61] — 25% 48% 12% 1% 4% 7% 2% 65.7% 34.3%
1 February - 3 April 2023 Newspoll[126] 1,193 33% 41% 11% 4% — — 11% 58% 42%
12 - 16 March 2023 Resolve Strategic — 29% 43% 9% 1% 6% 8% 4% 59.4% 40.6%
15 - 19 February 2023 Resolve Strategic — 27% 40% 14% 3% 2% 11% 2% 61.5% 39.5%
17 - 22 January 2023 Resolve Strategic — 31% 41% 13% 2% 3% 7% 4% 60% 40%
30 November - 4 December 2022 Resolve Strategic — 27% 46% 11% 2% 2% 7% 5% 63.3% 36.7%
26 December 2022 Labor wins a third term at the state election
27 July - 3 December 2022 Newspoll[126] 1,448 33% 37% 13% 5% — — 12% 57% 43%
5-9 October 2022 Resolve Strategic[88] — 32% 39% 12% 2% 2% 11% 3% 57.6% 42.4%
5-9 October 2022 Resolve Strategic[89] — 30% 40% 10% 5% 4% 9% 3% 59.6% 40.4%
14–18 September 2022 Resolve Strategic[91] — 30% 38% 14% 3% 2% 8% 5% 59.9% 40.1%
17–21 August 2022 Resolve Strategic[95] — 24% 42% 11% 3% 5% 10% 5% 63.6% 36.4%
21 June 2022 Roy Morgan[100] — — — — — — — — 60.5% 39.5%
21 May 2022 Election 33.1% 32.9% 13.7% 4.7% 3.8% 6.5% 5.3% 54.8% 45.2%
  1. ↑ Resolve Strategic 2PP calculated based on preference flows at the 2022 Australian federal election in Victoria.

Queensland

Graphical summary

Graphical summary of opinion polls for primary votes.
Graphical summary of opinion polls for two-party preferred.
Polling
Date Firm Sample
size		 Primary vote 2pp vote[lower-alpha 1]
LNP ALP GRN ONP UAP IND OTH LNP ALP
31 October - 15 December 2023 Newspoll[126] 764 41% 27% 12% 8% — — 12% 54% 46%
28 August - 12 October 2023 Newspoll[126] 887 39% 30% 11% 9% — — 11% 52% 48%
22 Sept - 4 Oct 2023 Resolve Strategic[26] — 34% 33% 11% 9% 1% 10% 1%
6-9 Sep 2023 Resolve Strategic[34] — 35% 29% 16% 9% 2% 7% 2%
09–12 Aug 2023 Resolve Strategic[41] — 40% 28% 9% 8% 2% 10% 3%
12–15 July 2023 Resolve Strategic[45] — 36% 33% 12% 6% 2% 10% 1%
6–11 June 2023 Resolve Strategic[52] — 31% 38% 10% 11% 2% 7% 1% 44.3% 55.7%
14-16 May 2023 Resolve Strategic[61] — 39% 27% 17% 7% 3% 6% 2% 50.9% 49.1%
1 February - 3 April 2023 Newspoll[126] 995 39% 33% 10% 8% — — 10% 50% 50%
12 - 16 March 2023 Resolve Strategic — 24% 39% 14% 6% 1% 14% 2% 40.3% 59.7%
15 - 19 February 2023 Resolve Strategic — 35% 39% 10% 9% 1% 0% 5% 46.7% 53.3%
17 - 22 January 2023 Resolve Strategic — 30% 38% 11% 9% 1% 8% 2% 42.5% 57.5%
30 November - 4 December 2022 Resolve Strategic[88] — 34% 43% 7% 6% 1% 6% 2% 44.9% 55.1%
27 July - 3 December 2022 Newspoll[126] 1,207 40% 33% 12% 6% — — 9% 51% 49%
26-30 October 2022 Resolve Strategic[88] — 32% 36% 16% 4% 2% 6% 4% 44.4% 55.6%
5-9 October 2022 Resolve Strategic[89] — 38% 31% 14% 6% 2% 7% 2% 49.8% 50.2%
14–18 September 2022 Resolve Strategic[91] — 31% 42% 7% 10% 2% 7% 2% 43.4% 56.4%
17–21 August 2022 Resolve Strategic[95] — 31% 37% 16% 6% 2% 6% 3% 42.5% 57.5%
21 June 2022 Roy Morgan[100] — — — — — — — — 50% 50%
21 May 2022 Election 39.6% 27.4% 12.9% 7.5% 5.1% 2.1% 5.4% 54% 46%
  1. ↑ Resolve Strategic 2PP calculated based on preference flows at the 2022 Australian federal election in Queensland.

Western Australia

Graphical summary

Graphical summary of opinion polls for primary voting.
Graphical summary of opinion polls for two-party preferred.
Polling
Date Firm Sample
size		 Primary vote 2pp vote
ALP L/NP GRN ONP UAP OTH UND ALP L/NP
31 October - 15 December 2023 Newspoll[126] 364 37% 37% 11% 5% — 10% — 54% 46%
6–13 December 2023 RedBridge[127][128] 1,203 39% 37% 12% 5% — 7% — 55.2% 44.8%
28 August - 12 October 2023 Newspoll[126] 620 38% 38% 10% 6% — 8% — 53% 47%
Mark McGowan stands down as Premier of Western Australia, replaced by Roger Cook
1 February - 3 April 2023 Newspoll[126] 474 40% 33% 11% 6% — 14% — 57% 43%
30 January 2023 Libby Mettam replaces David Honey as the WA Liberal leader
27 July - 3 December 2022 Newspoll[126] 575 41% 33% 9% 7% — 11% — 55% 45%
21 June 2022 Roy Morgan[100] 144 — — — — — — — 50.5% 49.5%
21 May 2022 Election 36.8% 34.8% 12.5% 4% 2.3% 9.6% — 55% 45%

South Australia

Graphical summary

Graphical summary of opinion polls for primary voting.
Graphical summary of opinion polls for two-party preferred.
Polling
Date Firm Sample
size		 Primary vote 2pp vote
L/NP ALP GRN ONP UAP OTH UND ALP L/NP
31 October - 15 December 2023 Newspoll[126] 277 35% 38% 10% 6% — 11% — 55% 45%
28 August - 12 October 2023 Newspoll[126] 362 30% 40% 10% 11% — 9% — 57% 43%
1 February - 3 April 2023 Newspoll[126] 362 35% 38% 12% 5% — 10% — 56% 44%
27 July - 3 December 2022 Newspoll[126] 449 35% 40% 12% 6% — 7% — 57% 43%
21 June 2022 Roy Morgan[100] 103 — — — — — — — 60.5% 39.5%
21 May 2022 Election 35.54% 34.46% 12.77% 4.83% 3.89% 8.51% — 53.97% 46.03%

Tasmania

Graphical summary

Graphical summary of opinion polls for two-party preferred.
Polling
Date Firm Sample
size		 Primary vote 2pp vote
L/NP ALP GRN ONP UAP IND OTH ALP L/NP
28 August - 12 October 2023 Newspoll[126] 366 25% 30% 13% 4% — — 27% 57% 43%
21 June 2022 Roy Morgan[100] — — — — — — — — 63% 37%
21 May 2022 Election 32.9% 27.3% 12% 4% 1.8% 11.2% 10.8% 54.3% 45.7%

Northern Territory

Graphical summary

Polling

Date Firm Sample
size		 Primary vote 2pp vote[lower-alpha 1]
ALP CLP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP CLP
16 - 18 November 2023 Redbridge Group[130] 601 22.2% 40.4% 11.1% 11.7% 7.2% 7.4% 43.9% 56.1%
21 May 2022 Election 38.2% 29.4% 13.1% 5.4% 1.3% 12.7% 55.5% 44.5%

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ Some polling forms do not release two-party-preferred results. Results shown for polls conducted by these firms are manually calculated using preference flows in 2022.[129]

References

  1. ↑ "Roy Morgan's latest Federal voting intention poll shows L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49%". 8 January 2024. Retrieved 8 January 2024.
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  3. ↑ "Roy Morgan Federal voting intention poll shows two major parties 'dead-locked' at Christmas: ALP 50% cf. L-NP 50%" (PDF). 18 December 2023. Retrieved 19 December 2023.
  4. 1 2 Benson, Simon (17 December 2023). "Newspoll: Anthony Albanese a drag on Labor's recovery". The Australian. Retrieved 17 December 2023.
  5. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 "The Essential Report: Political Insights". Essential Research. Archived from the original on 12 December 2023. Retrieved 12 December 2023.
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  11. ↑ "Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention shows support increasing for both major parties as two-party preferred result narrows: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%". Roy Morgan. 4 December 2023.
  12. ↑ "Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention shows support for the ALP recovering – up 3% points: ALP 52.5% cf. L-NP 47.5%". Roy Morgan. 28 November 2023.
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  124. ↑ Martin, Sarah (14 June 2022). "Guardian Essential poll: Albanese enjoys post-election approval boost last seen with Kevin Rudd". The Guardian. Retrieved 15 June 2022.
  125. ↑ Willemyns, Alex (2022-06-02). "Australians Back Their New Leader by a 2-to-1 Margin". Morning Consult. Retrieved 2022-06-03.
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  128. ↑ https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GBVg9-maQAAjH-n?format=jpg&name=large. {{cite web}}: Missing or empty |title= (help)
  129. ↑ "Australian Federal Two-Party-Preferred Estimator (2025)". Armarium Interreta.
  130. ↑ "Northern Territory Social Services" (PDF). Redbridge Group.
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