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| Elections in West Virginia |
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The 2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of West Virginia. Primary elections will take place on May 14, 2024.[1]
Incumbent Senator Joe Manchin (first elected in 2010) initially filed paperwork for the 2024 election, but announced in November 2023 that he will not seek a third full term in office.[2] Manchin has been West Virginia's only congressional Democrat since 2015 and the state's only Democratic statewide officeholder since 2021.
Background
West Virginia voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in each election from 1932 to 1996 except for 1956, 1972 and 1984. The last time West Virginia voted Republican in a presidential race by a single digit-margin was when George W. Bush won the state in 2000 by 6.3 percentage points; the state has gone to the Republican nominee by double digits in each election since, with Donald Trump overwhelmingly winning the state by about 40 points in both 2016 and 2020. Manchin had continued to see electoral success through the 2010s, positioning himself as a centrist to conservative Democrat with strong ties to West Virginia, [3] which is now considered a deeply red state at the federal and state levels.
The Republican Party has identified the contest as a top priority in the 2024 election cycle.[4] Notable Republicans who have announced candidacies for the seat include U.S. Representative Alex Mooney[5] and Governor Jim Justice.[6]
Due to the state's heavy partisan lean, the narrow margin by which Manchin was re-elected in 2018 (even amidst a national Democratic wave), and a likely strong Republican presidential performance on the same ballot, Republicans were favored to win over the seat even if the incumbent sought reelection.[7] After Justice announced his bid for the seat in April 2023, Elections Daily in labeled this race as "Safe Republican" due to his strong polling advantage against Manchin.[8] Since Manchin announced his retirement, all major outlets have rated this seat as a near-certain flip to GOP control. The last time a Republican won this Class 1 Senate seat was in 1956.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Zachary Shrewsbury, political organizer and U.S. Marine Corps veteran[9]
Publicly expressed interest
Declined
- Joe Manchin, incumbent U.S. senator (2010–present)[2]
Endorsements
Zachary Shrewsbury
- Individuals
- Howie Klein, former president of Reprise Records (1989–2001) and adjunct professor at McGill University[11]
- Heather Digby Parton, political blogger[11]
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[12] | |||
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Jim Justice, 36th governor of West Virginia (2017–present)[6]
- Zane Lawhorn, optometrist and perennial candidate[13]
- Bryan McKinney, sales manager[13]
- Janet McNulty, IT professional[14]
- Alex Mooney, U.S. representative for West Virginia's 2nd congressional district (2015–present)[5]
Withdrew
- Chris Rose, coal miner[15] (running for state senate)[16]
Declined
- Carol Miller, U.S. representative for West Virginia's 1st congressional district (2019–present)[17][18] (running for re-election)[19]
- Patrick Morrisey, West Virginia Attorney General (2013–present) and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018 (running for governor)[20]
Endorsements
Jim Justice
- Federal officials
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)[21]
- U.S. senators
- Marsha Blackburn, U.S. senator from Tennessee (2019-present)[22]
- Mitch McConnell, U.S. senator from Kentucky (1985–present) and Senate Minority Leader (2021–present)[23]
- Shelley Moore Capito, U.S. senator from West Virginia (2015–present)[24]
- Lindsey Graham, U.S. senator from South Carolina (2003–present)[25]
- Tom Cotton, U.S. senator from Arkansas (2015-present)[26]
- State legislators
- Moore Capito, state delegate (2016–2023)[27]
- Individuals
- Cathy Justice, educator and First Lady of West Virginia (2017–present) (Justice's wife)[28]
- Organizations
Alex Mooney
- U.S. senators
- Ted Cruz, U.S. senator from Texas (2013–present)[30]
- Rand Paul, U.S. senator from Kentucky (2011–present)[31]
- Mike Lee, U.S. senator from Utah (2011–present)[31]
- Jim DeMint, former U.S. senator from South Carolina (2005–2013)[31]
- U.S. representatives
- Jim Jordan, U.S. representative for Ohio's 4th congressional district (2007–present)[32]
- Statewide officials
- Riley Moore, West Virginia State Treasurer (2021–present)[33]
- Craig Blair, Lieutenant Governor of West Virginia (2021–present)[34]
- State legislators
- Eric Householder, Majority Leader of the West Virginia House of Delegates (2023–present)[34]
- Rollan Roberts, state senator from the 9th district (2019–present)[33]
- Chuck Horst, state delegate from the 62nd district (2020–present)[33]
- Patricia Rucker, state senator from the 16th district (2016–present)[34]
- Robert Karnes, state senator from the 11th district (2020–present)[34]
- Chris Pritt, state delegate from the 36th district (2020–present)[33]
- Pat McGeehan, state delegate from the 1st district (2014–present)[33]
- Organizations
- Citizens United Political Victory Fund[35]
- Club for Growth[36]
- Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC)[28]
- Republican Liberty Caucus[37]
- Senate Conservatives Fund[38]
- West Virginia Republican Assembly[39]
- Veterans for America First[40]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Jim Justice |
Zane Lawhorn |
Bryan McKinney |
Alex Mooney |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Pulse Research & Polling (R)[upper-alpha 1] |
November 13–14, 2023 | 414 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 46% | 1% | 2% | 20% | 22% |
| Fabrizio, Lee and Associates[upper-alpha 2] | September 11–13, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 62% | – | – | 23% | 15% |
| Research America | August 16–26, 2023 | 402 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 58% | – | – | 26% | 16% |
| Orion Strategies[upper-alpha 3] | June 17–20, 2023 | 651 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 56% | – | – | 19% | 25% |
| ECU Center for Survey Research | May 22–23, 2023 | 796 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 53% | – | – | 12% | 35% |
| co/efficient | April 24–25, 2023 | 753 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | – | – | 17% | 38% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Jim Justice |
Alex Mooney |
Patrick Morrisey |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Public Affairs (R) | March 14–17, 2023 | 360 (LV) | ± 5.2% | 43% | 21% | 10% | 24% |
| Tarrance Group (R) | February 5–7, 2023 | 609 (LV)[lower-alpha 2] | ± 4.1% | 53% | 16% | 21% | 8% |
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Jim Justice (R) | $1,547,997 | $380,640 | $1,167,356 |
| Alex Mooney (R) | $2,324,446 | $746,431 | $1,578,014 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[12] | |||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[41] | Solid R (flip) | November 9, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[42] | Solid R (flip) | November 9, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[43] | Safe R (flip) | November 9, 2023 |
| Elections Daily[8] | Safe R (flip) | May 4, 2023 |
| CNalysis[44] | Solid R (flip) | November 21, 2023 |
Polling
Hypothetical polling
- Joe Manchin vs. Jim Justice
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Manchin (D) |
Jim Justice (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | September 24–26, 2023 | 539 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 28% | 41% | 31% |
| The Tarrance Group (R)[upper-alpha 4] | September 24–26, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 43%[lower-alpha 3] | 49% | 8% |
| Research America | August 16–26, 2023 | 402 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 38% | 51% | 11% |
| ECU Center for Survey Research | May 22–23, 2023 | 957 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 32% | 54% | 14%[lower-alpha 4] |
| co/efficient (R) | April 24–25, 2023 | 974 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 29% | 43% | 28% |
| Tarrance Group (R)[upper-alpha 4] | February 5–7, 2023 | 609 (LRV) | ± 4.1% | 42% | 52% | 5% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | August 24–26, 2022 | 762 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 32% | 47% | 21% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | January 17–20, 2022 | 783 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 41% | 37% | 22% |
- Joe Manchin vs. Alex Mooney
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Manchin (D) |
Alex Mooney (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | Oct 1-4, 2023 | 539 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 37% | 31% | 31% | |
| Research America | August 16–26, 2023 | 402 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 41% | 14% | |
| ECU Center for Survey Research | May 22–23, 2023 | 957 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 40% | 41% | 1% | 18% |
| co/efficient (R) | April 24–25, 2023 | 974 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 30% | – | 34% |
| Tarrance Group (R)[upper-alpha 4] | February 5–7, 2023 | 609 (LRV) | ± 4.1% | 55% | 40% | – | 5% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | August 24–26, 2022 | 762 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 38% | 45% | 12% | 5% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | January 17–20, 2022 | 783 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 28% | 16% | 7% |
- Joe Manchin vs. Patrick Morrisey
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Manchin (D) |
Patrick Morrisey (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarrance Group (R)[upper-alpha 4] | February 5–7, 2023 | 609 (LRV) | ± 4.1% | 52% | 42% | – | 6% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | August 24–26, 2022 | 762 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 36% | 50% | 9% | 5% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | January 17–20, 2022 | 783 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 29% | 7% | 16% |
Notes
- Partisan clients
References
- ↑ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Archived from the original on August 17, 2023. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
- 1 2 Weaver, Al (November 9, 2023). "Manchin won't seek reelection in West Virginia". The Hill. Archived from the original on November 9, 2023. Retrieved November 9, 2023.
- ↑ Edmondson, Catie (October 8, 2018). "Joe Manchin's Yes on Kavanaugh Finds Sympathy in West Virginia (Published 2018)". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on June 16, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2021.
- ↑ Everett, Burgess (August 2, 2022). "GOP eyes 2024 payback for Manchin's Dems-only deal". POLITICO. Archived from the original on August 6, 2022. Retrieved October 10, 2022.
- 1 2 "West Virginia Congressman Alex Mooney says he will run for Manchin's Senate seat". WOWK 13 News. November 15, 2022. Archived from the original on November 15, 2022. Retrieved November 15, 2022.
- 1 2 Staff, WDTV News (April 27, 2023). "Gov. Justice announces run for U.S. Senate". www.wdtv.com. Archived from the original on April 27, 2023. Retrieved April 27, 2023.
- ↑ Kondik, Kyle (January 24, 2023). "Initial Senate Ratings: Democrats Have a Lot of Defending to Do – Sabato's Crystal Ball". Archived from the original on January 30, 2023. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
- 1 2 Cunningham, Eric (May 4, 2023). "Jim Justice's Announcement Moves West Virginia's Senate Race to Safe Republican". Elections Daily. Archived from the original on May 21, 2023. Retrieved May 4, 2023.
- ↑ Fernandez, Esteban (November 18, 2023). "Democracy dinner kicks off election season for Marion County Democrats". Times West Virginian. Retrieved November 19, 2023.
- ↑ "Elliott For West Virginia Statement of Organization" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
- 1 2 Klein, Howie (October 22, 2023). "Can A Real Democrat Defeat Joe Manchin AND Jim Justice?". Blue America. Archived from the original on October 22, 2023. Retrieved October 22, 2023.
- 1 2 "2024 Election United States Senate - West Virginia". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Archived from the original on August 11, 2023. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
- 1 2 Adams, Steven (November 10, 2023). "Reaction Pours In to Manchin's Impending Senate Retirement". The Intelligencer and Wheeling News-Register. Retrieved November 27, 2023.
- ↑ "WV SOS - Elections - Candidate - Online Data Services". apps.sos.wv.gov. Retrieved January 10, 2024.
- ↑ "GOP candidates, voters rally in Weirton". Wierton Daily Times. October 17, 2022. Archived from the original on October 17, 2022. Retrieved November 16, 2022.
- ↑ "West Virginia | Chris Rose For WV Senate". Chris Rose WV Senate. Archived from the original on December 22, 2022. Retrieved August 12, 2023.
- ↑ Mutnick, Ally (October 12, 2021). "3 members, 2 seats: West Virginia Republicans gird for redistricting showdown". Politico.
- ↑ Everett, Burgess; Beavers, Olivia (December 5, 2022). "Red-state rodeos to set GOP's 2024 Senate chances". Politico. Archived from the original on December 5, 2022. Retrieved December 5, 2022.
- ↑ Frisk, Garrett (July 21, 2023). "We Asked Every Member of the House if They're Running in 2024. Here's What They Said". Diamond Eye Candidate Report. Archived from the original on July 21, 2023. Retrieved July 21, 2023.
- ↑ "AG Morrisey Announces Run For Governor". April 4, 2023. Archived from the original on April 4, 2023. Retrieved April 4, 2023.
- ↑ Huynh, Anjali (October 18, 2023). "Trump Endorses Gov. Jim Justice in West Virginia Senate Race". The New York Times. Archived from the original on October 19, 2023. Retrieved October 19, 2023.
- ↑ "Gov. Jim Justice receives another endorsement in Senate race". DC News Now | Washington, DC. December 20, 2023. Retrieved December 21, 2023.
- 1 2 "Republican Gov. Jim Justice jumps into West Virginia 2024 Senate race. What did Mitt Romney say?". Deseret News. April 28, 2023. Archived from the original on May 9, 2023. Retrieved May 7, 2023.
- ↑ Tsirkin, Julie; Bowman, Bridget (April 27, 2023). "Gov. Jim Justice announces West Virginia Senate run, kicking off heated GOP primary". NBC News. Archived from the original on April 28, 2023. Retrieved April 28, 2023.
- ↑ "Justice Begins Campaign For U.S. Senate". West Virginia Public Broadcasting. April 27, 2023. Archived from the original on April 28, 2023. Retrieved April 28, 2023.
- ↑ "U.S. Senator Tom Cotton Endorses Governor Jim Justice for U.S. Senate". October 21, 2023. Archived from the original on November 10, 2023. Retrieved November 10, 2023.
- ↑ "Moore Capito endorses Justice, and Justice doesn't yet say if he'll return that". September 13, 2023. Archived from the original on November 10, 2023. Retrieved November 10, 2023.
- 1 2 Adams, Steven Allen (April 28, 2023). "Justice all in on US senate race". The Inter-Mountain. Archived from the original on April 28, 2023. Retrieved April 28, 2023.
- ↑ "WV Coal Association Endorses Slate of Pro-Coal Candidates for 2024 Election". www.wvcoal.com. Archived from the original on September 2, 2023. Retrieved September 2, 2023.
- ↑ Elkin, Elizabeth (April 21, 2023). "Cruz backs Alex Mooney in West Virginia Senate race as GOP works to unseat Joe Manchin". Fox News. Archived from the original on April 23, 2023. Retrieved April 23, 2023.
- 1 2 3 Adams, Steven (July 8, 2023). "U.S. Sen. Rand Paul rallies for Mooney in Huntington". Weirton Daily Times. Retrieved September 21, 2023.
- ↑ Campbell, Chase (March 8, 2023). "Political rally with congressmen Alex Mooney and Jim Jordan to take place". www.wtap.com. Archived from the original on May 7, 2023. Retrieved May 7, 2023.
- 1 2 3 4 5 McElhinny, Brad (April 19, 2023). "As Senate race heats up, Justice says he's not bothered by Mooney's early endorsements from legislators". Archived from the original on May 10, 2023. Retrieved May 7, 2023.
- 1 2 3 4 Adkins, Roger (April 23, 2023). "Mooney picking up support in US Senate race; Justice says he's unconcerned". The Herald-Dispatch. Archived from the original on May 1, 2023. Retrieved May 7, 2023.
- ↑ "Alex Mooney Endorsed By Citizens United Political Victory Fund In West Virginia's 2nd Congressional District Primary Election". Citizens United Political Victory Fund. October 30, 2013. Archived from the original on April 14, 2023. Retrieved April 14, 2023.
- ↑ "Club for Growth moves to stop Jim Justice for Senate coronation". Politico. April 4, 2023. Archived from the original on April 4, 2023. Retrieved April 4, 2023.
- ↑ Bowman, Jessico (August 28, 2023). "The Republican Liberty Caucus endorses Alex Mooney for U.S. Senate in West Virginia". Republican Liberty Caucus. Archived from the original on August 29, 2023. Retrieved August 29, 2023.
- ↑ "Mooney outraises Manchin in U.S. Senate campaign reports". Archived from the original on April 20, 2023. Retrieved May 7, 2023.
- ↑ Telegraph, CHARLES OWENS Bluefield Daily (September 26, 2023). "West Virginia Republican Assembly endorses Mooney for U.S. Senate". Bluefield Daily Telegraph. Archived from the original on September 30, 2023. Retrieved September 30, 2023.
- ↑ "Veterans For Trump Endorsement of Rep Alex Mooney for West Virginia Senate 2024". www.pr.com. May 27, 2023. Archived from the original on October 22, 2023. Retrieved October 15, 2023.
- ↑ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on November 30, 2018. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
- ↑ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Archived from the original on January 20, 2021. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
- ↑ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Archived from the original on January 26, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
- ↑ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
External links
- Official campaign websites
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