2024 United States presidential election in New Hampshire
November 5, 2024
 
Party Democratic Republican
Incumbent President

Joe Biden
Democratic


The 2024 United States presidential election in New Hampshire is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. New Hampshire voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New Hampshire has four electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1] New Hampshire is expected to be heavily targeted by both parties in 2024, even though the state has voted Democratic in seven out of the last eight presidential elections and is seen as a blue-leaning state.

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term.[2]

Primary elections

New Hampshire has held the famous "first-in-the-nation" primary since 1920. Delegates are elected separately from a non-binding poll, which dates from 1952. Candidates qualify by presenting a check for $1000 to the Secretary of State's office by a certain date.

Primary elections for both the Democratic and Republican parties will be held on January 23, 2024.[3]

Democratic primary

On February 4, 2023, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) approved a new 2024 primary calendar, in which the South Carolina Democratic primary would be held first on February 3, followed by Nevada and New Hampshire on February 6. New Hampshire Republican governor Chris Sununu and the Republican-controlled state legislature vowed to continue holding the "first-in-the-nation" primary (as New Hampshire state law establishes)[4] and ultimately did set an earlier date of January 23.[3] Showing solidarity with the DNC, Biden declined to appear on the state's primary ballot.[5] Pro-Biden New Hampshire Democrats nevertheless launched a formal write-in campaign for him, but none of the state's delegates to the Democratic National Convention will still be binding.[6]

Republican primary

General election

Polling

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Other Undecided
Emerson College November 10–13, 2023 917 (RV) ± 3.3% 47% 42% – 11%
University of New Hampshire/CNN September 14–18, 2023 2,108 (LV) ± 2.2% 52% 40% 6%[lower-alpha 2] 2%
Emerson College August 9–11, 2023 837 (RV) ± 3.4% 48% 41% 7% 4%
Saint Anselm College June 21–23, 2023 1,065 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 40% 10 1%
Emerson College March 3–5, 2023 1,025 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 38% 16% 4%
co/efficient January 25–26, 2023 1,179 (LV) ± 3.15% 40% 39% – 21%
Emerson College October 30 – November 1, 2022 850 (LV) ± 3.3% 45% 41% 11% 3%
University of Massachusetts Lowell October 14–25, 2022 600 (LV) ± 5.1% 49% 43% 5% 3%
Emerson College October 18–19, 2022 727 (LV) ± 3.6% 44% 43% 11% 2%
Emerson College September 14–15, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.4% 46% 43% 8% 3%
University of New Hampshire June 16–20, 2022 845 (LV) ± 3.2% 50% 43% 6% 2%
The Trafalgar Group (R) December 10–12, 2021 1,041 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 48% 6% –
Saint Anselm College[upper-alpha 1] May 7–10, 2021 1,267 (RV) ± 2.8% 50% 43% 7% –
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent		 Cornel
West
Independent		 Other /
Undecided
Emerson College November 10–13, 2023 917 (RV) ± 3.3% 40% 37% 8% 1% 14%
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent		 Other /
Undecided
Saint Anselm College December 18–19, 2023 1,711 (LV) ± 3.9% 49% 39% 8% 4%
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Ron
DeSantis
Republican		 Other Undecided
Emerson College November 10–13, 2023 917 (RV) ± 3.3% 46% 38% – 16%
University of New Hampshire/CNN September 14–18, 2023 2,108 (LV) ± 2.2% 50% 33% 15%[lower-alpha 3] 5%
Saint Anselm College June 21–23, 2023 1,065 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 40% 10 2%
Emerson College March 3–5, 2023 1,025 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 37% 14% 7%
University of New Hampshire June 16–20, 2022 845 (LV) ± 3.2% 46% 47% 7%
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Nikki
Haley
Republican		 Other Undecided
Emerson College November 10–13, 2023 917 (RV) ± 3.3% 39% 45% – 16%
Joe Biden vs. Chris Christie
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Chris
Christie
Republican		 Other Undecided
University of New Hampshire/CNN September 14–18, 2023 2,018 (LV) ± 2.2% 44% 20% 27%[lower-alpha 4] 10%
Joe Biden vs. Mike Pence
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Mike
Pence
Republican		 Other Undecided
University of New Hampshire/CNN September 14–18, 2023 2,018 (LV) ± 2.2% 49% 20% 25%[lower-alpha 5] 5%
Joe Biden vs. Vivek Ramaswamy
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Vivek
Ramaswamy
Republican		 Other Undecided
University of New Hampshire/CNN September 14–18, 2023 2,018 (LV) ± 2.2% 49% 20% 15%[lower-alpha 6] 5%
Joe Biden vs. Tim Scott
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Tim
Scott
Republican		 Other Undecided
University of New Hampshire/CNN September 14–18, 2023 2,018 (LV) ± 2.2% 47% 34% 14%[lower-alpha 7] 5%
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll source Date Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		 Other/
Undecided
Saint Anselm College Survey Center December 18–19, 2023 1,711 (LV) ± 3.9% 49% 39% 8% 4%
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Cornel
West
Green		 Other Undecided
Emerson College August 9–11, 2023 837 (RV) ± 3.4% 44% 39% 5% 6% 7%
Hypothetical polling
Joe Biden vs. Chris Sununu
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Chris
Sununu
Republican		 Other Undecided
Emerson College March 3–5, 2023 1,025 (RV) ± 3.0% 36% 44% 14% 6%
co/efficient January 25–26, 2023 1,179 (LV) ± 3.15% 36% 48% – 16%
Praecones Analytica April 14–16, 2022 503 (RV) ± 4.6% 36% 53% – 12%
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Kamala
Harris
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) December 10–12, 2021 1,041 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 48% 6%
Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Bernie
Sanders
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Undecided
Emerson College November 10–13, 2023 917 (RV) ± 3.3% 47.6% 42.5% 9.8%
Elizabeth Warren vs. Donald Trump
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Elizabeth
Warren
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Undecided
Emerson College November 10–13, 2023 917 (RV) ± 3.3% 45% 43% 12%

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ "Another candidate" with 6%
  3. ↑ Donald Trump with 10%; "Another candidate" with 5%
  4. ↑ Donald Trump with 16%; "Another candidate" with 11%
  5. ↑ Donald Trump with 15%; "Another candidate" with 10%
  6. ↑ Donald Trump with 9%; "Another candidate" with 6%
  7. ↑ Donald Trump with 10%; "Another candidate" with 4%
Partisan clients
  1. ↑ Poll conducted for the John Bolton Super PAC

References

  1. ↑ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
  2. ↑ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
  3. 1 2 "New Hampshire Defies National Democrats' New Calendar With January Primary Date". HuffPost. November 15, 2023. Retrieved November 15, 2023.
  4. ↑ O'Keefe, Ed; Novak, Analisa (February 3, 2023). "New Hampshire battles to retain first-in-the-nation presidential primary as DNC leaders meet to vote on possible changes". CBS News. Archived from the original on February 5, 2023. Retrieved February 5, 2023.
  5. ↑ Schneider, Elena (October 24, 2023). "Biden won't appear on New Hampshire primary ballot". Politico. Retrieved October 24, 2023.
  6. ↑ Kashinsky, Lisa (October 30, 2023). "Democrats launch write-in campaign for Biden in N.H." Politico. Retrieved October 30, 2023.
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