2024 United States presidential election in California

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2024 United States presidential election in California
	November 5, 2024
Incumbent President; Joe Biden; Democratic	; ;

The 2024 United States presidential election in California is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate.^[1] California voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of California has 54 electoral votes in the Electoral College.^[2]

Primary elections

Democratic primary

The California Democratic primary is scheduled to be held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Republican primary

The California Republican primary is scheduled to be held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Peace and Freedom Party

Three candidates successfully achieved ballot access in the Peace and Freedom Party non-binding presidential primary.^[3] The candidates include professor and activist Cornel West and community organizer and activist Claudia de la Cruz. The party's presidential nominee will be chosen by the state central committee in August.^[4] The non-binding primary will take place on Super Tuesday.

General election

Polling

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 1]}	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Emerson College/Inside California Elections^{[upper-alpha 1]}	January 11–14, 2024	1,087 (RV)	± 2.9%	54%	34%	12%
UC Berkeley IGS	January 1–4, 2024	4,471 (LV)	± 2.0%	56%	37%	19%
Emerson College/Inside California Elections^{[upper-alpha 1]}	November 11–14, 2023	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	50%	37%	13%
Public Policy Institute of California	November 9-16, 2023	1,113(LV)	± 3.2%	54%	30%	16%
UC Berkeley IGS	October 24–30, 2023	4,506 (LV)	± 2.5%	46%	31%	23%
Public Policy Institute of California	October 3–19, 2023	1,377 (LV)	± 4.0%	60%	29%	12%
Data Viewpoint	October 1, 2023	533 (RV)	± 4.3%	67%	33%	–
Public Policy Institute of California	August 25 – September 5, 2023	1,146 (LV)	± 3.7%	57%	26%	17%
UC Berkeley IGS	August 24–29, 2023	6,030 (RV)	± 2.0%	51%	31%	18%
Public Policy Institute of California	June 7–29, 2023	1,089 (LV)	± 3.8%	57%	31%	12%
Public Policy Institute of California	May 17–24, 2023	1,062 (LV)	± 3.9%	58%	25%	17%
UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times	February 14–20, 2023	5,149 (LV)	± 2.0%	59%	29%	12%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 1]}	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
Emerson College/Inside California Elections^{[upper-alpha 1]}	January 11–14, 2024	1,087 (RV)	± 2.9%	47%	32%	6%	1%	1%	13%
UC Berkeley IGS	January 1–4, 2024	4,471 (LV)	± 2.0%	47%	31%	7%	2%	2%	11%
Emerson College/Inside California Elections^{[upper-alpha 1]}	November 11–14, 2023	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	43%	31%	8%	1%	2%	15%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 1]}	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Cornel West Independent	Other / Undecided
UC Berkeley IGS	October 24–30, 2023	4,506 (LV)	± 2.5%	43%	29%	9%	4%	15%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 1]}	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Ron DeSantis Republican	Other / Undecided
UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times	February 14–20, 2023	5,149 (LV)	± 2.0%	56%	34%	10%

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 1]}	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Nikki Haley Republican	Other / Undecided
Data Viewpoint	October 1, 2023	533 (RV)	± 4.3%	58%	42%	–

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 1]}	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Emerson College/Inside California Elections^{[upper-alpha 1]}	November 11–14, 2023	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	47%	38%	15%

Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 1]}	Margin of error	Gavin Newsom Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Emerson College/Inside California Elections^{[upper-alpha 1]}	November 11–14, 2023	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	53%	35%	13%

Gavin Newsom vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 1]}	Margin of error	Gavin Newsom Democratic	Ron DeSantis Republican	Other / Undecided
Probolsky Research	August 4–9, 2022	900 (LV)	± 3.3%	55%	38%	7%

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report^[5]	Solid D	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections^[6]	Solid D	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[7]	Solid D	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill^[8]	Solid D	December 14, 2023
CNalysis^[9]	Solid D	December 30, 2023
CNN^[10]	Solid D	January 14, 2024

Notes

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

1 2 3 4 5 6 Poll sponsored by Nexstar Media

References

↑ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
↑ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
↑ "Certified List of Presidential Candidates for voter-nominated offices for the March 5, 2024, presidential primary election" (PDF). Secretary of State of California. December 28, 2023. Retrieved December 29, 2023.
↑ Winger, Richard (December 3, 2023). "Peace & Freedom Presidential Primary Ballot Will Contain Three Names". Retrieved December 3, 2023.
↑ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
↑ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
↑ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
↑ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
↑ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
↑ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.

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[key-5] 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[Nexstar-6] 1 2 3 4 5 6 Poll sponsored by Nexstar Media

[1] Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.

[2] "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.

[3] "Certified List of Presidential Candidates for voter-nominated offices for the March 5, 2024, presidential primary election" (PDF). Secretary of State of California. December 28, 2023. Retrieved December 29, 2023.

[4] Winger, Richard (December 3, 2023). "Peace & Freedom Presidential Primary Ballot Will Contain Three Names". Retrieved December 3, 2023.

[7] "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[8] "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[9] "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[10] "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[11] "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[12] "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.

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